Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year? - page 13.

philipma1957

legendary

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Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

We could drop to the levels of

Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177      50,245,385,237 GH/s

Difficulty History

Date-------------Difficulty---------------Change----   Hash Rate

Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s

But 4 cent power guys are good as low as 4000 price

If we go to 4000 price the network will shrink more
just look at litecoin

Difficulty History

Code:

Date	Difficulty	Change	Hash Rate
Oct 26 2018	8,187,466	-6.08%	234,433 GH/s  (way lower)
Oct 23 2018	8,717,916	-1.87%	249,621 GH/s
Oct 19 2018	8,884,304	-1.88%	254,385 GH/s
Oct 15 2018	9,054,556	2.22%	259,260 GH/s
Oct 12 2018	8,858,250	-1.35%	253,639 GH/s
Oct 09 2018	8,979,719	5.91%	257,117 GH/s
Oct 05 2018	8,478,980	-7.30%	242,780 GH/s
Oct 01 2018	9,146,222	2.65%	261,885 GH/s
Sep 28 2018	8,910,079	-3.47%	255,123 GH/s
Sep 24 2018	9,230,764	5.36%	264,306 GH/s
Sep 21 2018	8,760,775	0.74%	250,848 GH/s
Sep 18 2018	8,696,471	-1.17%	249,007 GH/s
Sep 14 2018	8,799,549	0.16%	251,959 GH/s
Sep 11 2018	8,785,275	1.00%	251,550 GH/s
Sep 07 2018	8,697,984	-1.38%	249,050 GH/s
Sep 04 2018	8,819,878	1.53%	252,541 GH/s
Aug 31 2018	8,686,646	-1.40%	248,726 GH/s
Aug 28 2018	8,809,843	0.66%	252,253 GH/s
Aug 24 2018	8,752,406	-0.85%	250,609 GH/s
Aug 21 2018	8,827,455	4.10%	252,758 GH/s
Aug 17 2018	8,479,765	-4.43%	242,802 GH/s
Aug 14 2018	8,873,191	-9.87%	254,067 GH/s
Aug 10 2018	9,845,135	6.81%	281,897 GH/s
Aug 06 2018	9,217,686	1.86%	263,931 GH/s
Aug 03 2018	9,049,638	-10.13%	259,119 GH/s
Jul 30 2018	10,070,201	-3.63%	288,341 GH/s
Jul 26 2018	10,449,981	9.88%	299,216 GH/s
Jul 23 2018	9,510,707	-5.10%	272,321 GH/s
Jul 20 2018	10,021,646	3.39%	286,951 GH/s
Jul 16 2018	9,693,242	4.13%	277,548 GH/s
Jul 13 2018	9,308,365	-3.88%	266,527 GH/s
Jul 09 2018	9,683,851	4.89%	277,279 GH/s
Jul 06 2018	9,232,469	-6.46%	264,354 GH/s
Jul 02 2018	9,869,969	0.99%	282,608 GH/s
Jun 29 2018	9,773,635	-6.54%	279,850 GH/s
Jun 25 2018	10,457,237	-0.93%	299,423 GH/s
Jun 21 2018	10,554,914	-1.22%	302,220 GH/s
Jun 18 2018	10,684,873	-2.90%	305,941 GH/s
Jun 14 2018	11,003,971	0.35%	315,078 GH/s  (peak number)

please note most all my charts and numbers come from

https://bitcoinwisdom.com

I give them credit for the numbers but my ideas from these numbers belong to me.

Look at all the - numbers lite coin has had since June

TheYankeesWin!

sr. member

Activity: 464

Merit: 301

So since you have come up with your thread we are still drifting sideways.

Coins did a big dip today down to

6200 on coinbase
6359 on bitfinex
6211 on bittrex

If we get a good drop to 4800 all those big players will get very nervous.

A 4 cent power guy with an s9 makes only 30 dollars a month on an s9

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

it is 27 ⅓ hours later then last post.

so 24 x 6 = 144
   3 x 6 = 18
   ⅓ x 6 = 2

164 blocks is pace for 0%
we were at 945
we are at 777

168 blocks

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,182,852,313,938
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,273,786,523,959 (+1.27%)
Adjust time:   After 777 Blocks, About 5.5 days
Hashrate(?):   47,977,666,892 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:

to make note it is going to be 0-2% so still sideways

Difficulty History

Date-------------Difficulty---------------Change----   Hash Rate

Nov 1 2018 to be determined maybe 1%

Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s

A chance to stay pretty flat.
note we had a flat spot late summer of 2017 maybe 4 jumps

we will now have a six jump flat spot in a few days

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

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'The right to privacy matters'

Pretty flat for now. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,182,852,313,938
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,344,820,265,442 (+2.25%)
Adjust time:   After 945 Blocks, About 6.7 days
Hashrate(?):   48,472,749,233 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:

I good chance at under 1%Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s

those bold numbers show almost the same

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

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'The right to privacy matters'

I think we stay flat unless we move to 8000 a coin overnight (a day or 2)

Of course if bitmain does a 28th 1400 watt miner for 900 usd I take that back. Grin

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s

so above is about a 1.66% average

48155 x 1.0166 = 48891
48891 x 1.0153 = 49767
49639 x 1.0153 = 50593
50398 x 1.0153 = 51432 we are at 51416 so 1.66% from Aug 24 until Oct 31 .

Next jump should be around the 31st there is no reason for much growth without a price jump over 7500

Steamtyme

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Quote from: minefarmbuy on October 18, 2018, 10:10:37 AM

What I wonder is if we get a market spike or bull run, how much difficulty will increase.

I'm not sure it will be the market spike or a bull run that's going to start bumping the Diff up. Having been going through the hardware that's available or about to ship out, that's where I think the next jump will come from.

Anyone upgrading to get back into better profits will also likely be increasing their overall hashrate.

Obviously if we see any rise in price that nears the ATH or even half way there; some equipment will go back online. Same as last year, but that will also drive hardware purchases through the roof again. This would likely take about 4 weeks to be felt by the network; either in waiting for gear to arrive, or people deciding if it's worth setting up old equipment.

minefarmbuy

full member

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We are not retail.

Quote from: sidehack on October 11, 2018, 08:02:14 PM

Yeah I really should have seen that coming. Had to cash out some coin to cover bills, which historically only ever happens right after a tank. Invoices due to me are always paid right before a tank.

Seems to be pretty stable market wise lately. Hopefully you did ok?

I imagine that part of the business is pretty nerve racking pending market for us and you.

What I wonder is if we get a market spike or bull run, how much difficulty will increase.

Guinsanity

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Merit: 17

We have to see the two next diff changes, if we have a little increase or decrease btc its following LTC just like you said.

Im expecting the same, the hashrate ATH its 56 EH, so close to 54EH actual, we dont have gears with 6 month ROI even with 0,04c (all over 12 month without including facility costs).

With my costs being 0,045 im good with that, we can keep this for two years and the moon Grin

but lets see whats bitmain have for us in this new gear, lets see the s11 price, this is gonna guide the market.

KingScorpio

sr. member

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jes bitcoin mining will end up beeing hard work, with small profit margins, because the price stopped growing, the electricity costs became the definition who can mine and who cant

philipma1957

legendary

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'The right to privacy matters'

Almost -3%

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,454,968,648,263
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,232,778,297,423 (-2.98%)
Adjust time:   After 257 Blocks, About 1.8 days
Hashrate(?):   50,468,480,940 GH/s

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate

Oct 18 2018 7,200,000,000,000 -3% maybe

Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

all info is from

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History

Date.................Difficulty...................Change.....Hash Rate
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s

projected for Oct 18th

about

Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,278,295,116,188 (-2.37%)

So the sideways motion is setting up

compare to this time frame:

Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s
Aug 11 2018   6,389,316,883,511   7.39%   45,736,511,764 GH/s
Jul 29 2018   5,949,437,371,609   14.88%   42,587,731,568 GH/s
Jul 17 2018   5,178,671,069,072   -3.45%   37,070,371,464 GH/s
Jul 02 2018   5,363,678,461,481   5.64%   38,394,705,964 GH/s
Jun 19 2018   5,077,499,034,879   2.77%   36,346,153,834 GH/s
Jun 05 2018   4,940,704,885,521   14.71%   35,366,943,171 GH/s
May 24 2018   4,306,949,573,981   3.94%   30,830,345,943 GH/s

The key is the next two jumps after this one.
Along with BTC price.

if price stays at 6000 - 6500 I think we continue to drift sideways.

sidehack

legendary

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Curmudgeonly hardware guy

Yeah I really should have seen that coming. Had to cash out some coin to cover bills, which historically only ever happens right after a tank. Invoices due to me are always paid right before a tank.

TheYankeesWin!

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So the price of coin dropped and looks like hashing dropped maybe we go negative for the next difficulty adjustment.

jcramirezb

brand new

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The change would be at the moment of extracting the last block with the current difficulty and then we would go back to the BTC network. What do you think?

philipma1957

legendary

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'The right to privacy matters'

Bch was doing big swings last year but they leveled.

They have 4 ehash

Or 4000 ph

Or 4000000th or

4,000,000/14 = around 285,000 s9 Mining.

Yeah they could truly alter the rate of btc diff since lots of pools auto switch to bch if it earns more.

But. You need a big price jump to really move a lot of hash off btc.

Since btc has 3 million plus s9 and bch has under 300 thousand ..

So if bch jumps 2x in price btc drops maybe 250 thousand s9 and bch picks up that hash.

But it reaches its own level.

Steamtyme

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I think that doesn't really make sense.

BTC network Diff is adjusted every 2016 blocks ~ approximately 14 days. This is to maintain an average 10 minute block time. Pretty sure BitCH coin is also doing this... can't say I've followed it much in about a year.

With that being in place it helps prevent someone with a large hash, from coin jumping and manipulating Diff in that fashion. Not that it was designed for that purpose. There are smaller alt coins that can be manipulated in that way, but that's because they don't have a large network Hashrate "protecting" it.

You may just be referring to switching between what is most profitable. That is covered in Phil's explanation previously.

Steamtyme

legendary

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His scenario is correct if we are looking at October/November, I think.

That was the drastic Diff changes going on with the BitCH network. We would see everyone jump over there for a few days at a time.

It wasn't drastically noticed across the BTC network immediately but it did usually dent it enough to at least stifle massive DIFF jumps or bring about a drop. I won't lie I'm glad to see that the other network is still there and has stabilized to a point where it remains near a 1:1 for which is more profitable to mine. Only because I don't want to see that hashrate added to ours, increasing BTC difficulty with it.

MoparMiningLLC

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EIN: 82-3893490

Quote from: mady_qt on October 09, 2018, 03:12:31 PM

Thanks for your reply.

At what price S9 and L3+ should be worth the buy ?

I commented about someone selling but it was deleted as being "off topic" not sure why but I will see if the guy is on the forums here and if so, have him post up.

jcramirezb

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Good day estimated, analyzing information about the difficulty of the BTC network and the mathematical calculation that provides this, I have found that if the miners or a good part of them change to another network, such as the BCH network, I am sure that the difficulty would decrease and Our current mining power would be more profitable for the next days. What do you think?

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: jcramirezb on October 10, 2018, 09:03:34 PM

Good day estimated, analyzing information about the difficulty of the BTC network and the mathematical calculation that provides this, I have found that if the miners or a good part of them change to another network, such as the BCH network, I am sure that the difficulty would decrease and Our current mining power would be more profitable for the next days. What do you think?

this adds more complexity to the general estimate.

it holds true if BCH has slightly better profit numbers.

but if BCH has vastly better then BTC would drop

and if BCH has vastly less BTC diff would jump up.

For my calculations I treat it as parallel ie it earns close to 50-60 a month at 1400 watts
same as btc and ltc

Topic: Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year? - page 13. (Read 11916 times)