Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1275. (Read 3314316 times)
DAO hacked, apparently using recursive calls to split (i.e. withdraw ETH). Interesting times ahead. Crypto never fails to disappoint.
Neither a borrower nor a lender be,
For loan oft loses both itself and friend,
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.
For loan oft loses both itself and friend,
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.
For me it is irrelevant. If Monero moons, I am rich. If not, I do not care. I am not personally over invested in Monero and I do not suggest anyone to be as well. However, if Monero moons, it is nice to have a bag that will be worth of gold.
Therefore, keep on good work buying/selling XMR and remember to borrow some coins along the way as well.
Therefore, keep on good work buying/selling XMR and remember to borrow some coins along the way as well.
Where's Risto? I would have expected the bitcoin surge would have led to some new Malla retreat discussions?
I think that time is being used for CryptoKingdom development.
Where's Risto? I would have expected the bitcoin surge would have led to some new Malla retreat discussions?
If I didn't know better I would think coins are appearing from nowhere.
8600/day or so?
Could be magic... I'm right in the middle of nowhere, and I assure you, they aren't coming from here.
If I didn't know better I would think coins are appearing from nowhere.
8600/day or so?
...
I see the market at this point as very complex and I can see why a simple commnet such as:
I am with americanpegasus here. ...
can lead to a misunderstanding. OK, wouldn't be my first reading comprehension fail!
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The question that comes to my mind is are we going in to a Bitcoin bubble?
I made the assumption we all agree that btc is in a bubble. Your not so sure? The average joe doesn't care less about halving IMHO this is pure speculation with a big fat dump coming.
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If the answer is no then this is a scenario where moving into fiat with the idea of buying Monero in the future at a lower price in fiat terms than now may make some sense. Still even under this scenario there remains the risk of significant improvements in Monero such as the GUI and RingCT, keeping the fiat price of Monero above the current levels.
I am now under the assumption that xmr market is so manipulated that it can not break out until there is a massive influx I.E. Mass adoption. I am now acting under the premise that I will be able to see that trend and adjust accordingly as opposed to the normal bot manipulation which I actually have been doing pretty well against. My reasoning is the continual siphoning from the cap we see each and everyday non-stop. I'm surprised it can hold it's price as well as it does. If I didn't know better I would think coins are appearing from nowhere.
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If the answer is yes then my take is that we can learn from the past behaviors of alt coins in the 2013 Bitcoin bubbles. Litecoin is a good example; however this market behavior was by no means limited to Litecoin. I will start with both the LTC/XBT and LTC/USD charts going back to 2012.
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltime
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/usd/btc-e/alltime
Now compare this to XBT/USD also going back to 2011
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/btc/usd/bitstamp/alltime
The salient points I see are:
1) Litecoin spikes with respect to Bitcoin at the same time as Bitcoin spikes with respect to USD. In effect Litecoin acts as a leveraged play on Bitcoin during the Bitcoin bubble.
2) The pre March 2013 Litecoin lows with respect to both USD and even XBT were not reached in the subsequent bear markets. Yes Litecoin fell from close to 50 USD to just over 1 USD in 2015, in a brutal bear market. This bear market, however, was not brutal enough to bail out a Litecoin "short" who sold LTC for USD in say February of 2013 with the intent of buying back into LTC after the bubble burst.
3) The Litecoin lows with respect to XBT and USD after the April 2013 and November 2013 bubbles were comparable. One possible scenario is that the April 2013 Bitcoin bubble brought a new awareness to Litcoin since it was the first bubble in Bitcoin after the creation of Litecoin. This could be relevant not just for Monero but also for those coins that were created in 2014 or later.
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltime
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/usd/btc-e/alltime
Now compare this to XBT/USD also going back to 2011
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/btc/usd/bitstamp/alltime
The salient points I see are:
1) Litecoin spikes with respect to Bitcoin at the same time as Bitcoin spikes with respect to USD. In effect Litecoin acts as a leveraged play on Bitcoin during the Bitcoin bubble.
2) The pre March 2013 Litecoin lows with respect to both USD and even XBT were not reached in the subsequent bear markets. Yes Litecoin fell from close to 50 USD to just over 1 USD in 2015, in a brutal bear market. This bear market, however, was not brutal enough to bail out a Litecoin "short" who sold LTC for USD in say February of 2013 with the intent of buying back into LTC after the bubble burst.
3) The Litecoin lows with respect to XBT and USD after the April 2013 and November 2013 bubbles were comparable. One possible scenario is that the April 2013 Bitcoin bubble brought a new awareness to Litcoin since it was the first bubble in Bitcoin after the creation of Litecoin. This could be relevant not just for Monero but also for those coins that were created in 2014 or later.
I have no interest in LTC and would not expect XMR market to mirror any market except possibly itself. The bolded Qualifier is a perfect example of why acting on this is a bad idea. We don't invest on a "it could" situation.
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Are the markets the same now as in 2013? Of course not; however I see the differences as possibly magnifying this effect in the case of Monero. We have Bitcoin suffering with the blocksize debate and is already driving money into the alt-coins, with Ethereum being the most clear case. There is also of course the chance of some of the pending development work in Monero being completed in the interim. With all of this in mind I find the idea of holding fiat with the idea of buying Monero at a later date, creating an effective short position, an extremely risky proposition. It could work but it could also backfire badly.
I hope you correct but I am certainly shorting btc vs xmr and xmr seems to like to settle at a pretty specific area vs usd so i'm pretty confident I will increase my holdings within 6 months. XMr will definitely teach you to play the long game.
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Of course this must not be construed as investment advice and any long or short position in crypto currency should be considered extremly high risk and only undertaken after obtaining appropriate professional advice.
Disclosure: I do currently hold XMR, CAD and smaller amounts of XBT, NMC and USD.
Disclosure: I do currently hold XMR, CAD and smaller amounts of XBT, NMC and USD.
Actually only a fiduciary is obligated to take your interests ahead of it's own when giving advice all the other "professional" advisors use you money to hedge their own investments.
ArcticMine,
Thanks for sharing.
But thank God, I never sought "appropriate professional advice"!
I would be living in poverty if I had done so.
Instead, I am contemplating a reasonably comfortable retirement.
Thanks for sharing.
But thank God, I never sought "appropriate professional advice"!
I would be living in poverty if I had done so.
Instead, I am contemplating a reasonably comfortable retirement.
Can XMR on POLO to take the price of 0.004BTC?
...
Ummm, I never even had an opinion on why BTC is on the rise so how can you say you agree with him and by extension not me when I never presented an opinion on the btc rise? I stated I would rather have my holdings in fiat for the bubble burst where you state you would rather have it in an alt which basically is us all agreeing that holding BTC is the foolish move. I disagreed on whether getting out of xmr is a good thing or not and I postulated that it depends on the market share you are holding.
Ummm, I never even had an opinion on why BTC is on the rise so how can you say you agree with him and by extension not me when I never presented an opinion on the btc rise? I stated I would rather have my holdings in fiat for the bubble burst where you state you would rather have it in an alt which basically is us all agreeing that holding BTC is the foolish move. I disagreed on whether getting out of xmr is a good thing or not and I postulated that it depends on the market share you are holding.
I see the market at this point as very complex and I can see why a simple commnet such as:
I am with americanpegasus here. ...
can lead to a misunderstanding. The question that comes to my mind is are we going in to a Bitcoin bubble?
If the answer is no then this is a scenario where moving into fiat with the idea of buying Monero in the future at a lower price in fiat terms than now may make some sense. Still even under this scenario there remains the risk of significant improvements in Monero such as the GUI and RingCT, keeping the fiat price of Monero above the current levels.
If the answer is yes then my take is that we can learn from the past behaviors of alt coins in the 2013 Bitcoin bubbles. Litecoin is a good example; however this market behavior was by no means limited to Litecoin. I will start with both the LTC/XBT and LTC/USD charts going back to 2012.
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltime
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/usd/btc-e/alltime
Now compare this to XBT/USD also going back to 2011
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/btc/usd/bitstamp/alltime
The salient points I see are:
1) Litecoin spikes with respect to Bitcoin at the same time as Bitcoin spikes with respect to USD. In effect Litecoin acts as a leveraged play on Bitcoin during the Bitcoin bubble.
2) The pre March 2013 Litecoin lows with respect to both USD and even XBT were not reached in the subsequent bear markets. Yes Litecoin fell from close to 50 USD to just over 1 USD in 2015, in a brutal bear market. This bear market, however, was not brutal enough to bail out a Litecoin "short" who sold LTC for USD in say February of 2013 with the intent of buying back into LTC after the bubble burst.
3) The Litecoin lows with respect to XBT and USD after the April 2013 and November 2013 bubbles were comparable. One possible scenario is that the April 2013 Bitcoin bubble brought a new awareness to Litcoin since it was the first bubble in Bitcoin after the creation of Litecoin. This could be relevant not just for Monero but also for those coins that were created in 2014 or later.
Are the markets the same now as in 2013? Of course not; however I see the differences as possibly magnifying this effect in the case of Monero. We have Bitcoin suffering with the blocksize debate and is already driving money into the alt-coins, with Ethereum being the most clear case. There is also of course the chance of some of the pending development work in Monero being completed in the interim. With all of this in mind I find the idea of holding fiat with the idea of buying Monero at a later date, creating an effective short position, an extremely risky proposition. It could work but it could also backfire badly.
Of course this must not be construed as investment advice and any long or short position in crypto currency should be considered extremly high risk and only undertaken after obtaining appropriate professional advice.
Disclosure: I do currently hold XMR, CAD and smaller amounts of XBT, NMC and USD.
Just think guys please if primier_ would mine lots he would always try to shill Monero, but he all the time FUD it. He dont mine Monero at all. He is a FUD account of a bagholder that is afraid of Monero.
There is no 90% botnet. Period.
There was one actual botnet identified recently and the author of the report estimated the revenue as something up to $1000 per month, which if you work it out is a teeny tiny fraction of the hash rate. The larger the botnet the more likely it is to be detected and reported. 90% Monero botnets would be hundreds of thousands if not millions of computers. There is zero chance that exists in the wild without being detected and reported.
There was one actual botnet identified recently and the author of the report estimated the revenue as something up to $1000 per month, which if you work it out is a teeny tiny fraction of the hash rate. The larger the botnet the more likely it is to be detected and reported. 90% Monero botnets would be hundreds of thousands if not millions of computers. There is zero chance that exists in the wild without being detected and reported.
Idiot
primer- your personal insult is off topic and could be deleted under the posted thread rules but I feel like leaving it here anyway as a permanent record of your behavior
I think Monero will moon soon, so I'm just trading with very little amounts right now. If i profit, good, if not, I'm hodling the bitcorns. My sell orders weren't hit yesterday but still I decided to sell a very little amount (around a tenth of my asks) and I'm thinking of buying it back today, as my goal is to accumulate moneros.
There is no 90% botnet. Period.
There was one actual botnet identified recently and the author of the report estimated the revenue as something up to $1000 per month, which if you work it out is a teeny tiny fraction of the hash rate. The larger the botnet the more likely it is to be detected and reported. 90% Monero botnets would be hundreds of thousands if not millions of computers. There is zero chance that exists in the wild without being detected and reported.
There was one actual botnet identified recently and the author of the report estimated the revenue as something up to $1000 per month, which if you work it out is a teeny tiny fraction of the hash rate. The larger the botnet the more likely it is to be detected and reported. 90% Monero botnets would be hundreds of thousands if not millions of computers. There is zero chance that exists in the wild without being detected and reported.
Idiot
The (short term) inverse correlation between $/BTC price movements and BTC/XMR rate is strong and consistent at the moment.
What do you think is the best way to profit of this? How do you try to time properly BTC price movements? Do you use stop orders to limit loss or not?
What do you think is the best way to profit of this? How do you try to time properly BTC price movements? Do you use stop orders to limit loss or not?
I dont understand that compared to last half year, last 2 weeks rare is selling Moneros. Why this sudden change. Did all who wanted BTC for halving already sold them in past half year? Or something is expecting?
The fundamentals for Monero are very different from last year. We have a significant drop in the emission and more importantly an even greater drop in the inflation rate. We also have seen some very significant improvements in Monero project. https://getmonero.org/2016/02/10/monero-missive-2015-year-in-review.html One very significant improvement, that has a direct impact on usability, in the removal of the large memory requirements for running Monero, from well over 9 GB to under 300 MB. This means support for 32bit GNU/Linux and Windows including Windows XP and support for ARMv7 devices.
The answer is surprisingly simple, yet infuriating. Buy Monero, secure it in cold storage, and then help build the Monero economy and community. Don't worry about the price.
For example, if Bitcoin goes up, but so does Monero's BTC ratio, getting out of Monero temporarily to ride the Bitcoin wave up will ultimately hurt your XMR holdings.
For example, if Bitcoin goes up, but so does Monero's BTC ratio, getting out of Monero temporarily to ride the Bitcoin wave up will ultimately hurt your XMR holdings.
I have to disagree here (make note anyone that thinks this thread is a circle jerk), it all depends on the amount you own. For instance my holdings were so small that I was able to cash out without effecting the price in any meaningful way. I agree that partially cashing out is stupid just as the morons that lend at such a low rate are shooting themselves in the foot.
Now I am 100% certain and have absolutely no doubt that Monero is the best Virtual currency bar NONE but in order to increase my holdings I am taking from the BTC bubble and will buy back in when it pops and I expect XMR will dip down to 1 usd again and I will get back in then.
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I am with americanpegasus here. My take is that the current rise in Bitcoin is driven to a large degree by fear in the fiat markets. A significant factor in the latter is the threat of Brexit. If Bitcoin moons for what ever reason I would much rather be in an alt I believe in than in Bitcoin. I base this to large degree on the price behavior of most alt-coins during the Bitcoin bull markets of 2013.
Ummm, I never even had an opinion on why BTC is on the rise so how can you say you agree with him and by extension not me when I never presented an opinion on the btc rise? I stated I would rather have my holdings in fiat for the bubble burst where you state you would rather have it in an alt which basically is us all agreeing that holding BTC is the foolish move. I disagreed on whether getting out of xmr is a good thing or not and I postulated that it depends on the market share you are holding.
There is no 90% botnet. Period.
There was one actual botnet identified recently and the author of the report estimated the revenue as something up to $1000 per month, which if you work it out is a teeny tiny fraction of the hash rate. The larger the botnet the more likely it is to be detected and reported. 90% Monero botnets would be hundreds of thousands if not millions of computers. There is zero chance that exists in the wild without being detected and reported.
There was one actual botnet identified recently and the author of the report estimated the revenue as something up to $1000 per month, which if you work it out is a teeny tiny fraction of the hash rate. The larger the botnet the more likely it is to be detected and reported. 90% Monero botnets would be hundreds of thousands if not millions of computers. There is zero chance that exists in the wild without being detected and reported.
I love the pump but unless monero really takes off (0.04-0.05) it won't survive Ethereum's ring signature mixers soon to be launched.....
There's a lot more to XMR than ring sigs. Even still, from what I understand Ethereum ring-sig transactions will be optional and quite expensive. I'm unconcerned.
Please do not compare a shitcoin with ETH.. Monero's only purpose it to make botnet operators rich.. Less than 10% of network hash rate are real users.. Unless monero attracts BTC bubble newcomers it's done...
How do you know 90% of the hash rate is botnets? I'm curious to see the numbers.
He runs the botnet maybe?
He IS the botnet.
I speculate that we will watch monero continue to rise until it plateaus. Then, as always with monero rises, someone decides to cash out and tanks the price. by like 40%.
Though we haven't seen what happens with a serious bitcoin moon event.
I love the pump but unless monero really takes off (0.04-0.05) it won't survive Ethereum's ring signature mixers soon to be launched.....
There's a lot more to XMR than ring sigs. Even still, from what I understand Ethereum ring-sig transactions will be optional and quite expensive. I'm unconcerned.
Please do not compare a shitcoin with ETH.. Monero's only purpose it to make botnet operators rich.. Less than 10% of network hash rate are real users.. Unless monero attracts BTC bubble newcomers it's done...
How do you know 90% of the hash rate is botnets? I'm curious to see the numbers.
He runs the botnet maybe?
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