I'll be updating this thread with long term EW counts and generally becoming more active again once I'm confident this correction off $42K is complete. In the meantime, cross-posting some general ideas about where I think the market is, and where I think it's going.
Don't know how exactly a supercycle will play out, but yeah I imagine what we are seeing now is the start of a multi-year bull market that completely disregards the 4 year cycle which should be ending late this year.
In other words, an S-curve. So this is the basic idea:
The first 3 bubble cycles took place inside the red box. They're just tiny bumps in the road before the rocket takes off and goes into the vertical swing of the S-curve.
That's why $100K
might seem like an extremely low price just a few years from now. The next phase may be much faster and more violent than the 2010-2020 phase.
So the hype we were waiting for 3 years... is here. Question is when will this bubble pop?
Not anytime soon. In 2017 terms, it's only April or May. Things haven't even gone parabolic yet!
Meanwhile only an idiot or a troll thinks that just because of such a move price could go below $30k let alone reach $3k
$3K is a joke, but sub-$30K would be very typical for Bitcoin. Check out some of the pullbacks we saw during the 2017 bubble:
- January 2017: 38%
- March 2017: 35%
- June-July 2017: 41%
- September 2017: 40%
From $42K, a 35% pullback = $27,300. 38% = $26,040. It goes lower from there.
After failing out of a 3-day mode on significant bearish momentum, I would say the odds of seeing the $20,000s again are pretty good, better than 50-50. Historically, $24-27K would be the prime knife catching area. Great place to dump cash and go all in coin. Also a great place to hunt for longs while future premiums are low.
And now the correction is over and Bitcoin is back to $38k haha. Bottom was $30k, bears celebrated for all of what like 3 days now they have to go back into hiding until they claim bitcoin is dead at the next correction!
Let me play devil's advocate for a moment.
There is the failed mode (horizontal resistance) at ~$40K and the 0.886 "last chance, bears!" Fib level at $40.6K. I'd like to see BTC conquer those levels before celebrating.
There is still a distinct possibility that this is an ABC "B wave" correction bull trap, just like the one we saw in the June 2017:
We are currently in the exact same Fib zone. Just tagged the 0.705 earlier today.
Its possible this Wave-4 does meander sideways for a few weeks, but still overall expecting a revisit to the 04-JAN-2021 lows.
The corresponding Wave-2 to this Wave-4 occurred in AUG-2020, and it took 4 weekly candles to play out, and it was a shallower 20% pullback.
The rule of alternation would suggest a sharp pullback in Wave 4, yes.
Sentiment feels very "Wave B" to me (as in Wave B of a higher degree ABC sharp Wave 4). Mid-June 2017 comes to mind. Everyone seems very quick to assume we're going to new ATHs immediately. Binance and Bitmex swap funding rates are already back at 0.06%. Sentiment just feels a little bit too greedy still. A sweep below $30K would shake confidence perfectly, leaving bulls out of position, setting the stage for another parabolic leg up.
Oooh fun it did dip back to $34k at least very briefly a few hours ago, but so far looks like it might be carving out a higher low at $34/35k (compared to the $30k of earlier this week). Wasn't expecting a $6k pull back after the $10k bounce of the correction haha, but still going under $30k looks like a very long shot.
Honestly, it looks drippy to me. Full retrace of the last leg up, good selling volume and momentum. Another 4H candle just closed and no sign of bullish reversal yet.
I see two scenarios. The first is a bearish ABC correction to sub-$30K, just like summer 2017. The second is what I call a "scam curve." It'll dig into the low-mid $30Ks but carve out a higher low in a larger sideways accumulation bottom.
Either way the correction continues, no moon yet.
Update on ETHBTC: expected resistance off these key VPVR levels, but looking good. Still on track:
