2022–23 PBA Commissioner's Cup - page 9.

AHOYBRAUSE

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Quote from: freedomgo on October 18, 2024, 05:11:23 AM

Quote from: AHOYBRAUSE on October 18, 2024, 05:00:38 AM

I also followed the odds at the beginning of the game. SMB was 2.0 and +1.5 at tipoff, when they were up 10 points they were still at 1.6 and -2.5. Now they are down 13 points and the handicap is +7.5.
This handicap swing makes 0 sense. The score changed by 23 points but the handicap only 10 points. What sense does this make??

So you're here to criticize the league and the oddsmakers? Look, this is gambling, and if you find it weird, maybe this league just isn’t for you. I’ve been betting on this league, and I’ve noticed similar things to what you're pointing out, but you know what? I just played and focused on winning...and it worked. Since you have such sharp observations, why not use them to your advantage and make some easy cash?

There is no such thing as "easy cash" when the odds have no value. And I have also wrote before, I have stopping betting this league a long time ago because of these things. I just wanted to point out that this series is proving these mentioned irregularities a lot.
Why do you think the low odds teams are always on the winning side? And low odds have no value, especially when odd things are happening. You said it yourself, you have also noticed these things.
But anyway, have fun with this league, if you believe everything is going the right way, good for you. And good luck with your bets on Ginebra everybody. WOuldn't be surprised if we see yet another 20:2 run or something similar to flip the game. Roll Eyes

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Quote from: AHOYBRAUSE on October 18, 2024, 05:00:38 AM

I also followed the odds at the beginning of the game. SMB was 2.0 and +1.5 at tipoff, when they were up 10 points they were still at 1.6 and -2.5. Now they are down 13 points and the handicap is +7.5.
This handicap swing makes 0 sense. The score changed by 23 points but the handicap only 10 points. What sense does this make??

So you're here to criticize the league and the oddsmakers? Look, this is gambling, and if you find it weird, maybe this league just isn’t for you. I’ve been betting on this league, and I’ve noticed similar things to what you're pointing out, but you know what? I just played and focused on winning...and it worked. Since you have such sharp observations, why not use them to your advantage and make some easy cash?

AHOYBRAUSE

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I mean, like I have said some days before, the odds in this league make literally no sense at all, and so do the events that take place in those games.
How do you dominate the first 10min and lead 33:20 and now , 13min later, it's 48:61. That makes absolutely no sense at all and happens in every 2nd or third game in this league, preferably in the final quarter.
Don't get me wrong, I have not made a bet on this game, I have learned my lesson in the past. I just think it's highly unlikely this happens over and over again and it's just "the way it is". I play and follow basketball for over 30 years now and in no league if have seen such things happening day in and day out, not in one league. Momentum just doesn't work like that if everything is going without any outside influence. It starts with the ends and ends on the court.

I also followed the odds at the beginning of the game. SMB was 2.0 and +1.5 at tipoff, when they were up 10 points they were still at 1.6 and -2.5. Now they are down 13 points and the handicap is +7.5.
This handicap swing makes 0 sense. The score changed by 23 points but the handicap only 10 points. What sense does this make??

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I like the bracketing of what the PBA did. Pool B is with San Miguel Beermen and Ginebra San Miguel which is in favor of the fans and not to see both of them playing in the grand finals. While on Pool A, Rain or Shine and TNT which we're having the spoiler there that it's going to be TNT going to the grand finals. Cast your bets everyone and I guess one team will be moving on the grand finals later tonight.

GreatArkansas

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Quote from: bisdak40 on October 17, 2024, 08:06:10 PM

Already pull the trigger for tonight's games hehe.

Ginebra -2.5 @1.85 vs SMB
ROS +5.5 @1.85 vs TNT

Rain or Shine will try to extend the series but i don't think TNT will allow it to happen but still i think this will be a close game like that of game 4.

Good luck to all of us.

I'm copying you bai Cheesy

Good luck to us bisayang dako.
I'm glad I got better odds here in Betcoin.

ROS+6.5 = 2.17 odds
GINEBRA -2.5 = 2.05 odds

Recent matches of ROS vs TNT is always very close, my recent bets also always winning with ROS with handicap points on them.

Matches today are very important and for sure a lot of people will watch especially since it's Friday.

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Quote from: Maslate on October 17, 2024, 07:34:31 AM

Quote from: bisdak40 on October 16, 2024, 11:45:30 PM

SMB was lucky enough on that game as shots were falling from everywhere dodging a bullet from a superb performance of Justin Brownlee.

Both teams were shooting lights out, but the good thing is that SMB spread their offense really well. Everyone stepped up, even Trollano, who had some quality minutes and was on fire. But I don’t see that happening in Game 6, as both teams will focus on taking the lead to ease the pressure.

Quote from: bisdak40 on October 16, 2024, 11:45:30 PM

I will bet for Ginebra on the next as i think they will win game 5 and game 6, no game 7 for me hehe.

Same here, jump on it early since Ginebra is only at -2.5 right now. As for ROS vs. TNT, the line is at -5.5 for TNT, and they might close out the series tomorrow. I don’t think it’ll be close, and bettors will likely back ROS since they’ve covered the last two games.

Already pull the trigger for tonight's games hehe.

Ginebra -2.5 @1.85 vs SMB
ROS +5.5 @1.85 vs TNT

Rain or Shine will try to extend the series but i don't think TNT will allow it to happen but still i think this will be a close game like that of game 4.

Good luck to all of us.

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Quote from: Finestream on October 17, 2024, 10:42:50 AM

Quote from: Fredomago on October 17, 2024, 10:09:56 AM

Looking at the current trend in terms of total, only game 2 that ends up with low scoring outcome those remaining games are all ver 220 seems that if following how both teams played defense over 217.5 might be a good optinon, though not a guarantee as adjustments can be done and also depending from both teams if how good they will play.

They’re really comfortable with their shooting right now, especially JB, who's been hitting from the outside. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out to be another high-scoring game. The game’s at Ynares Center-Antipolo, a venue they’re already familiar with. No need to overthink it- just follow the trend. With 3 out of the last 4 games going over, we’re looking at a 75% chance here.

Follow your heart and let it be.. Hahaha but kidding aside, with that numbers and with how comfortable both teams are taking their shots, yeah I'm with you though not a fan of total scores but 3 out of 4 it might be a another factor or basis that can be use when analyzing the possibilities, just place a bet and watch the game, game 5 now and whoever wins it got a very decent chance winning the final spots to play for the title.

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Quote from: Fredomago on October 17, 2024, 10:09:56 AM

Looking at the current trend in terms of total, only game 2 that ends up with low scoring outcome those remaining games are all ver 220 seems that if following how both teams played defense over 217.5 might be a good optinon, though not a guarantee as adjustments can be done and also depending from both teams if how good they will play.

They’re really comfortable with their shooting right now, especially JB, who's been hitting from the outside. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out to be another high-scoring game. The game’s at Ynares Center-Antipolo, a venue they’re already familiar with. No need to overthink it- just follow the trend. With 3 out of the last 4 games going over, we’re looking at a 75% chance here.

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 17, 2024, 09:57:08 AM

Quote from: Fredomago on October 17, 2024, 09:31:35 AM

Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 17, 2024, 09:06:08 AM

Quote from: Maslate on October 17, 2024, 07:34:31 AM

Same here, jump on it early since Ginebra is only at -2.5 right now. As for ROS vs. TNT, the line is at -5.5 for TNT, and they might close out the series tomorrow. I don’t think it’ll be close, and bettors will likely back ROS since they’ve covered the last two games.

Right now, I think it’s a smart pick, especially since SMB’s import seemed to sprain his ankle in the last game. He played through it with painkillers, but as the commentators mentioned, the pain will likely hit harder after a day. So, tomorrow we might be in for a surprise, he could sit out, or they might not push him to play, which would probably cause Ginebra’s spread to increase. I don’t expect a big swing in the spread even if SMB’s import plays, but -2.5 for Ginebra looks like decent odds, especially in what could be a defensive Game 5.

It can affect SMB's rotation knowing that the import also helping them in terms of offense though they've got CJ who can play like him hahaha, but for sure with that spread if the tempo of the game favor Ginebra that handicap is not hard to cover, with the way JBL playing the game he really showing that he's aiming to win, he just need other productions from his teammates to support and help him in winning the game.

Looks like there's nothing to worry for the SMB fans as their import had already assured he is fine.

Anosike guarantees SMB he'll be fine for Game 5 against Ginebra

Quote

EJ Anosike assured San Miguel he'll be alright as its PBA Governors' Cup semifinals series against Barangay Ginebra is now down to its most crucial stage.

"I'll be alright," he quipped when asked about the ankle he sprained in the second quarter of Game 4 Wednesday night at the Smart Araneta Coliseum.

I guess it's all set now, hopefully that line won't move anymore. How about the total, currently at 217.5?

Looking at the current trend in terms of total, only game 2 that ends up with low scoring outcome those remaining games are all ver 220 seems that if following how both teams played defense over 217.5 might be a good optinon, though not a guarantee as adjustments can be done and also depending from both teams if how good they will play.

Thanks for updating about Anosike that's something SMB fan would like to know as he's providing decent numbers in terms of offensive help.

Ziskinberg

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Quote from: Fredomago on October 17, 2024, 09:31:35 AM

Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 17, 2024, 09:06:08 AM

Quote from: Maslate on October 17, 2024, 07:34:31 AM

Same here, jump on it early since Ginebra is only at -2.5 right now. As for ROS vs. TNT, the line is at -5.5 for TNT, and they might close out the series tomorrow. I don’t think it’ll be close, and bettors will likely back ROS since they’ve covered the last two games.

Right now, I think it’s a smart pick, especially since SMB’s import seemed to sprain his ankle in the last game. He played through it with painkillers, but as the commentators mentioned, the pain will likely hit harder after a day. So, tomorrow we might be in for a surprise, he could sit out, or they might not push him to play, which would probably cause Ginebra’s spread to increase. I don’t expect a big swing in the spread even if SMB’s import plays, but -2.5 for Ginebra looks like decent odds, especially in what could be a defensive Game 5.

It can affect SMB's rotation knowing that the import also helping them in terms of offense though they've got CJ who can play like him hahaha, but for sure with that spread if the tempo of the game favor Ginebra that handicap is not hard to cover, with the way JBL playing the game he really showing that he's aiming to win, he just need other productions from his teammates to support and help him in winning the game.

Looks like there's nothing to worry for the SMB fans as their import had already assured he is fine.

Anosike guarantees SMB he'll be fine for Game 5 against Ginebra

Quote

EJ Anosike assured San Miguel he'll be alright as its PBA Governors' Cup semifinals series against Barangay Ginebra is now down to its most crucial stage.

"I'll be alright," he quipped when asked about the ankle he sprained in the second quarter of Game 4 Wednesday night at the Smart Araneta Coliseum.

I guess it's all set now, hopefully that line won't move anymore. How about the total, currently at 217.5?

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 17, 2024, 09:06:08 AM

Quote from: Maslate on October 17, 2024, 07:34:31 AM

Same here, jump on it early since Ginebra is only at -2.5 right now. As for ROS vs. TNT, the line is at -5.5 for TNT, and they might close out the series tomorrow. I don’t think it’ll be close, and bettors will likely back ROS since they’ve covered the last two games.

Right now, I think it’s a smart pick, especially since SMB’s import seemed to sprain his ankle in the last game. He played through it with painkillers, but as the commentators mentioned, the pain will likely hit harder after a day. So, tomorrow we might be in for a surprise, he could sit out, or they might not push him to play, which would probably cause Ginebra’s spread to increase. I don’t expect a big swing in the spread even if SMB’s import plays, but -2.5 for Ginebra looks like decent odds, especially in what could be a defensive Game 5.

It can affect SMB's rotation knowing that the import also helping them in terms of offense though they've got CJ who can play like him hahaha, but for sure with that spread if the tempo of the game favor Ginebra that handicap is not hard to cover, with the way JBL playing the game he really showing that he's aiming to win, he just need other productions from his teammates to support and help him in winning the game.

Ziskinberg

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Quote from: Maslate on October 17, 2024, 07:34:31 AM

Same here, jump on it early since Ginebra is only at -2.5 right now. As for ROS vs. TNT, the line is at -5.5 for TNT, and they might close out the series tomorrow. I don’t think it’ll be close, and bettors will likely back ROS since they’ve covered the last two games.

Right now, I think it’s a smart pick, especially since SMB’s import seemed to sprain his ankle in the last game. He played through it with painkillers, but as the commentators mentioned, the pain will likely hit harder after a day. So, tomorrow we might be in for a surprise, he could sit out, or they might not push him to play, which would probably cause Ginebra’s spread to increase. I don’t expect a big swing in the spread even if SMB’s import plays, but -2.5 for Ginebra looks like decent odds, especially in what could be a defensive Game 5.

Maslate

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Quote from: bisdak40 on October 16, 2024, 11:45:30 PM

SMB was lucky enough on that game as shots were falling from everywhere dodging a bullet from a superb performance of Justin Brownlee.

Both teams were shooting lights out, but the good thing is that SMB spread their offense really well. Everyone stepped up, even Trollano, who had some quality minutes and was on fire. But I don’t see that happening in Game 6, as both teams will focus on taking the lead to ease the pressure.

Quote from: bisdak40 on October 16, 2024, 11:45:30 PM

I will bet for Ginebra on the next as i think they will win game 5 and game 6, no game 7 for me hehe.

Same here, jump on it early since Ginebra is only at -2.5 right now. As for ROS vs. TNT, the line is at -5.5 for TNT, and they might close out the series tomorrow. I don’t think it’ll be close, and bettors will likely back ROS since they’ve covered the last two games.

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Quote from: GreatArkansas on October 16, 2024, 09:11:24 AM

Quote from: GreatArkansas on October 15, 2024, 11:45:44 PM

Here are my bets.

TNT versus Rain Or Shine - Rain or Shine (5.5)
San Miguel Beermen vs Ginebra - San Miguel Beermen (-2.5)
(....)

2-0 for today Cool

Congrats for those who able to ride me Cheesy

Quote from: Finestream on October 16, 2024, 08:49:04 AM

Quote from: Maslate on October 16, 2024, 07:07:55 AM

Let’s see if the line movement was on point this time.

Once again, the line is giving us a hint about the winner. It seems like the PBA really wants this series to go to Game 7, with SMB evening the series and even covering the spread. I’m pretty sure a lot of people lost on this game since many were betting heavily on Ginebra’s moneyline. This is all business, and if you trust your gut, you’ll probably profit from this series. So, what’s the bet for the next game- Ginebra or SMB?

This is what I'm talking about, that's why I am safe during the last games of these 2 series, I believe a lot of people lost on that even though they really expected the 2 top teams win, just take a look at how they play and the points lead.

Well, maybe on the game 7, that's the real and exciting game you will see and it's worth of betting on the team you really rooting for.

Congrats on your win kabayan, we have the same but i forgot to post it here, maybe tomorrow i will post my bet here early.

SMB was lucky enough on that game as shots were falling from everywhere dodging a bullet from a superb performance of Justin Brownlee.

I will bet for Ginebra on the next as i think they will win game 5 and game 6, no game 7 for me hehe.

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Quote from: Finestream on October 16, 2024, 08:49:04 AM

Quote from: Maslate on October 16, 2024, 07:07:55 AM

Let’s see if the line movement was on point this time.

Once again, the line is giving us a hint about the winner. It seems like the PBA really wants this series to go to Game 7, with SMB evening the series and even covering the spread. I’m pretty sure a lot of people lost on this game since many were betting heavily on Ginebra’s moneyline. This is all business, and if you trust your gut, you’ll probably profit from this series. So, what’s the bet for the next game- Ginebra or SMB?

Seems right to me, as there are gamblers who love risking their bets for much better ML and with the opportunity they will put decent amount especially those who loves supporting the gin kings but just like what you have said seems that bookies understand that and let those bettors to think that SMB may lose the game , in the end of the day its the bookies who manage to win and most of those heavy loads for Ginebra got busted, better luck next game.

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Quote from: GreatArkansas on October 16, 2024, 09:11:24 AM

Well, maybe on the game 7, that's the real and exciting game you will see and it's worth of betting on the team you really rooting for.

Congrats on the 2-0 for tonight, that’s some sweet cash!

Did anyone else bet on the over? I mean, that seemed obvious with the total at 221.5, and if I remember correctly, the game hit over 252 points. Next game might be unpredictable since the series is tied, but I’m guessing most people will bet on Ginebra for a revenge game. The next game is scheduled for this Friday at 5:00 pm, with SMB vs Ginebra not being the main attraction. I’m not sure what to expect, but it’s fine if SMB wins, then Ginebra takes games 6 and 7. I’m also thinking about betting on the over, as that’s been the trend, it’s already 3 out of 4 games that hit the over.

In the other game, just one more win, and the series will be over for ROS. That was close, with TNT winning by only 2 points in a very defensive game, as neither team hit 90 points. The trend might continue, so I’m sticking with the under, especially since TNT will want to end the series early and rest up for a bigger challenge ahead.

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Quote from: GreatArkansas on October 15, 2024, 11:45:44 PM

Here are my bets.

TNT versus Rain Or Shine - Rain or Shine (5.5)
San Miguel Beermen vs Ginebra - San Miguel Beermen (-2.5)
(....)

2-0 for today Cool

Congrats for those who able to ride me Cheesy

Quote from: Finestream on October 16, 2024, 08:49:04 AM

Quote from: Maslate on October 16, 2024, 07:07:55 AM

Let’s see if the line movement was on point this time.

Once again, the line is giving us a hint about the winner. It seems like the PBA really wants this series to go to Game 7, with SMB evening the series and even covering the spread. I’m pretty sure a lot of people lost on this game since many were betting heavily on Ginebra’s moneyline. This is all business, and if you trust your gut, you’ll probably profit from this series. So, what’s the bet for the next game- Ginebra or SMB?

This is what I'm talking about, that's why I am safe during the last games of these 2 series, I believe a lot of people lost on that even though they really expected the 2 top teams win, just take a look at how they play and the points lead.

Well, maybe on the game 7, that's the real and exciting game you will see and it's worth of betting on the team you really rooting for.

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Quote from: Maslate on October 16, 2024, 07:07:55 AM

Let’s see if the line movement was on point this time.

Once again, the line is giving us a hint about the winner. It seems like the PBA really wants this series to go to Game 7, with SMB evening the series and even covering the spread. I’m pretty sure a lot of people lost on this game since many were betting heavily on Ginebra’s moneyline. This is all business, and if you trust your gut, you’ll probably profit from this series. So, what’s the bet for the next game- Ginebra or SMB?

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Quote from: AHOYBRAUSE on October 16, 2024, 07:00:41 AM

Quote from: Maslate on October 16, 2024, 06:37:19 AM

Quote from: AHOYBRAUSE on October 16, 2024, 04:49:13 AM

Can someone explain to me these strange odds for the games between SMB and Ginebra? They really don't make any sense to me.
In game 1 where SMB was the "host" Ginebra had 1.43 odds and won easily.
In game 2 it was the other way around, Ginebra was the host but SMB had 1.57 odds.
In game 3 SMB was the host and suddenly we had even odds.
Now it's game 4 where Ginebra is hosting again and suddenly SMB is the 1.47 odds favorite again.

That make literally NO SENSE at all. They are playing all the games in the same arena -> no home court advantage. No significant players are missing but the odds jump back and forth like its table tennis or something.

The line changes are basically driven by the perception of the betting public. As you can see, there’s often a big movement, and that’s because this league doesn’t have a huge market, so any sharp bettor can easily shift the line.

For Game 1, Ginebra was the favorite, which made sense because they had an easier journey compared to SMB, who had a tough battle against Converge. In Game 2, SMB was favored since the public believed they’d even the series, and they did. Game 3 had Ginebra as the favorite, being the better team, and they won. Now SMB is favored again as they’re expected to tie the series. Let’s see if the line movement was on point this time.

Yeah, but "being expected to even the series" can't be an indicator for such a drastic shift in line compared to the previous game. In any other league, and I mean ANY, if a team won the previous game they are even more likely to win the next once, according to the line. I mean really in every league worldwide the odds would be smaller if you won the previous game, not higher. I mean there is something like "having the momentum". Here it's like winning the previous game is a curse. Grin

Only in the PBA I see this over and over again and that's so strange to me since I watch a LOT of basketball and never see this anywhere else. Huh

Yeah, only in the PBA, things get really unpredictable. This series is a real 50-50, both teams are capable of beating each other, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes to Game 7. During the regular season, Ginebra had the better standing, mostly because they had a solid import. But since both teams have strong fanbases and sharp bettors play a role, line movements happen so easily. I remember a game where Ginebra started as the favorite at -3.5, but as the game got closer, the line shifted, and suddenly SMB was favored by -4.5 points. That’s the unpredictable “magic” we talk about!

So try to be on the right side to win.

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Quote from: Maslate on October 16, 2024, 06:37:19 AM

Quote from: AHOYBRAUSE on October 16, 2024, 04:49:13 AM

Can someone explain to me these strange odds for the games between SMB and Ginebra? They really don't make any sense to me.
In game 1 where SMB was the "host" Ginebra had 1.43 odds and won easily.
In game 2 it was the other way around, Ginebra was the host but SMB had 1.57 odds.
In game 3 SMB was the host and suddenly we had even odds.
Now it's game 4 where Ginebra is hosting again and suddenly SMB is the 1.47 odds favorite again.

That make literally NO SENSE at all. They are playing all the games in the same arena -> no home court advantage. No significant players are missing but the odds jump back and forth like its table tennis or something.

The line changes are basically driven by the perception of the betting public. As you can see, there’s often a big movement, and that’s because this league doesn’t have a huge market, so any sharp bettor can easily shift the line.

For Game 1, Ginebra was the favorite, which made sense because they had an easier journey compared to SMB, who had a tough battle against Converge. In Game 2, SMB was favored since the public believed they’d even the series, and they did. Game 3 had Ginebra as the favorite, being the better team, and they won. Now SMB is favored again as they’re expected to tie the series. Let’s see if the line movement was on point this time.

Yeah, but "being expected to even the series" can't be an indicator for such a drastic shift in line compared to the previous game. In any other league, and I mean ANY, if a team won the previous game they are even more likely to win the next once, according to the line. I mean really in every league worldwide the odds would be smaller if you won the previous game, not higher. I mean there is something like "having the momentum". Here it's like winning the previous game is a curse. Grin

Only in the PBA I see this over and over again and that's so strange to me since I watch a LOT of basketball and never see this anywhere else. Huh

Topic: 2022–23 PBA Commissioner's Cup - page 9. (Read 98447 times)