2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

alani123

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Here we go, final results.
People got it right here, bettors got it right, pollsters couldn't have been more wrong.
Interesting results. Who knows where that's gonna lead America. But in gambling terms, surely those of us that follows the polls must have lost a lot of money in gambling hehe.

Anyway, till next time, time to close this thread now. Republicans got a sweeping victory in all US bodies of government. We'll see what happens next time.

Webetcoins

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I mean when it comes to gambling, polymarket was obviously manipulated, and everyone knew that from the first point. Not saying they were wrong, Trump was seen as possible winner and he was the winner in the end, so they were right, but that doesn't change the fact that if someone wagers a few million, they could clean out the orderbook, so it's open to manipulation easily.

Any rich person could have thrown 100 million into kamala and would have made her favourites there, they knew she wouldn't win so they didn't put that up, but it's easy to manipulate that way and I am not going to gamble anywhere like that.

I did it on stake, and I was much happier, I did lose my bet but at least I knew that I got fair odds there and I lost knowing the fair odds. The time I bet on mine, the odds were quite similar between them, and I was happy to pick Kamala in that situation. When you are not entirely sure, betting on the person you favour is the way to go and I made a loss but that happens every week with my football bets anyway lol.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: Haunebu on November 08, 2024, 01:09:46 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on November 07, 2024, 11:47:56 PM

In any case, France might ban Polymarket after a Frenchman won $47 million on his bet on Trump. These French government officials are being stressed by their rulers from the gambling industry heheheh. They want some of this inflow of $3.5 billion to enter their betting houses hehe.

This particular Frenchman that they are talking about is probably responsible for manipulating the bets heavily in Trump's favor which was actually disclosed through various sources sometime back itself.

This dude basically invested a lot of money and recovered it all back along with funds invested by other punters. It's a HYIP in disguise in my opinion. Looks like he and Polymarket are completely screwed now.

However, this is a prediction market based on the elections. If the accused manipulator was trading more of his money to increase Trump's ratings, this implies that he is risking more of his own money if the election was won by Kamala Harris. This would also imply that if Kamala was really the leader during the campaign and the ratings of the Donald was manipulated high, this will be a good bet for Kamala Harris.

Also, This is very headshaking. What are you accusing on the Frenchman? Where do you reckon the winner gets his prize money? Do you not understand what are prediction markets or trading markets? He risked more of his own money to win more money from the participants of the market if he is correct.

Hirose UK

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Quote from: fruktik on November 06, 2024, 12:58:16 AM

Quote from: Hirose UK on November 06, 2024, 12:47:48 AM

I see almost all the temporary vote counts do show Trump has significant lead over Harris by more than 3% and there are still some that have not been resolved to see the overall results, maybe tomorrow we will really be able to see everything with more certainty about the temporary counts for all regions.
I have made Trump favorite to win the 2024 US election from the start and there are several things that can be the main factors to be more convincing if Trump does have that chance.

Let's not rush to conclusions. Let the final results be the deciding factor for us, and not assumptions that have no significant facts behind them. It seems to me that both candidates have a chance to win. In addition, I do not rule out the possibility that there will be a second round of elections. Yes, this cannot be ruled out either. I am more in favor of this scenario.

I do not draw conclusions unilaterally but it is based on what happened and the results of the vote count that has been done, everything is clear that Trump won the 2024 election with 50.5% of the vote while Harris only got 47.9% for the overall vote count.
I do not think about the second round of elections because Trump can win more than 50% and of course this is an absolute victory.

Quote from: Barikui1 on November 06, 2024, 01:01:39 AM

Quote from: Hirose UK on November 06, 2024, 12:47:48 AM

I see almost all the temporary vote counts do show Trump has significant lead over Harris by more than 3% and there are still some that have not been resolved to see the overall results, maybe tomorrow we will really be able to see everything with more certainty about the temporary counts for all regions.
I have made Trump favorite to win the 2024 US election from the start and there are several things that can be the main factors to be more convincing if Trump does have that chance.

Well, right now the odds favours more of Donald trump's winning this one here, because right now, I think he is actually leading Harris by a mile, but to me, though am not a citizen of the united state, but I would be very much ok if Donald trump's wins this one here, not that I think that he is the best choice or the best man for the job that the Americans can provide, no, I want he to win because I believe that with the options available right now, the world would be more peaceful if he is the president of the united state because of his unpredictable nature, and that is one of the qualities a leader must have in other to be successful in the role assign to him or her.

Yes you are right and of course this is the people choice, hopefully it is the right choice and can work well as what he talked about during the campaign with all his promises and visions and missions when he became President, the only thing I waiting for is for the development of the crypto world and this will have big impact in the long term for the future.

LUCKMCFLY

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Quote from: Docnaster on November 03, 2024, 10:09:15 AM

While we wait for Tuesday 5th of November when the US presidential election will be held, I'm curious to know if there will be a website that'll be dedicated in uploading the results as election exercise goes on. If there any, someone with the knowledge should please tell us so we can use it to track how the election will be conducted. A lot of people might not be able to access their TV's to follow live proceedings from the election but will be pleased to know a website that'll help them.

It's interesting, it would also be good to know, but I think the best source were the television channels and newscasts that did general coverage of the event, there were many rumors and the truth is that the polls they did favoring the USA were a total failure, that's where you see the interest in those companies that did not want Trump to win, for me a total lack of ethics, things really turned out very well, favorable for everyone, even for Kamala's supporters they know that they will have a great country, so given these things you can intuit that it is already a fact that the USA will recover many things and among that its economy that was so bad, it was also a great omen for the btc , I did say that Trump won, so you could say that I was clear About that and I congratulate all Americans for choosing the progress and not a possible move towards communism.

Sithara007

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Quote from: Sithara007 on March 11, 2024, 11:33:47 PM

Looking at the odds, I would say that at 1.70, the sportsbooks are still underestimating Donald Trump. IMO, his odds should be somewhere around 1.30. He has almost won the Republican primaries, and if he stands for the POTUS elections later this year there is a 90% chance that he will win (Biden is trailing far behind in almost all of the polls). Now the only possibility that Trump may not win the election comes from any potential court decision that may disqualify him from running. Any such judgment is extremely unlikely.

This is what I posted many months back. I was sure that the bookmakers are underestimating Trump. In the end, Polymarket ended up with odds very similar to what I had posted. The only red flag for Trump was his ongoing litigations. But Democrats failed to get him disqualified to run the POTUS race. To be fair to Kamala, she did better than what I expected from her. I was actually thinking that Trump maybe able to flip some of the blue states such as Virginia, New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota and New Mexico. That never happened.

summonerrk

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Quote from: alani123 on March 11, 2024, 07:17:53 AM

Let's have a thread to discuss gambling on the 2024 United States Presidential election!
Remember: This is a thread about gambling, we go by the official results. For disputing past events you can go on the politics board.

Interestingly, we're seeing a woman nominee have a real shot at the presidency, something that doesn't seem to have kept being brought up as much as it was in 2016.

After Biden dropping out, Democrats seem to be performing much better with Kamala. After the debate, polls show her have a steady lead and the odds on bookies seem to agree.

Image source via Stake

Let's discuss the likelihood of each candidate winning the election, events, as well as which platforms offer this market for crypto-enabled bets.

I think for many it was an easy bet, because in my opinion Trump's victory was obvious. Kamala has shown herself from a bad side many times, and it seemed to me that this greatly reduces her chances of winning. However, the final result showed that there really was a fight, and many still did not accept the new president. But that's the way the presidential race is - you can't please everyone.

Docnaster

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Quote from: cabron on November 07, 2024, 11:25:03 AM

Yep, congrats to all the winners. Does it occur to you that the more you see many people won in this bet, the more you feel like you should have bet a huge amount?

I just watched YouTube videos of people who melted down after learning Trump won. It's funny, but it's also sad. These are the guys that shouldn't be political at all since they just listen to one side and not even feel like they have been lied to by their party. And then they actually believe the lies they told about Trump.

You can't totally blame gambling folks that staked in favor of Kamala Harris to win because some of them didn't just listen to one side of the political propaganda against Trump but were forced to believe that there was no way he was going to win which is why they're now in deep pains for losing hugely.

For us that are politically inclined and followed the pre election happenings in the US, choosing and staking on a Donald Trump win was one of the easiest gambling decisions we've taken. Congratulations to all the winners who through the results of the election won their gambles

Sithara007

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Exit polls indicate that compared to 2020, the largest increase in support for Trump came from young (18 to 29 years old) voters. And among them, young men showed a higher amount of support compared to women. And all this can be attributed to Trump appearing in various podcasts (such as the one with Joe Rogan). Apparently his 18-year old son Eric Trump advised him to do this. Kamala on the other hand was very successful in alienating this bloc with her far-left rhetoric.

finaleshot2016

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https://www.ladbible.com/news/uk-news/donald-trump-adin-ross-bet-usa-president-election-212031-20241106

Imagine being Adin Ross, winning a ton of money after betting $1 million on Trump to win. Meanwhile, I remember xQc betting on Harris because of the huge odds, but he ended up losing money. Sometimes, even if the odds are below 2, it's better to take the guaranteed money if it's a sure win. Roll Eyes

Adin's Cybertruck gift to Trump has already paid for itself after the election. It’s a win-win for him, capitalizing on the election trend. He definitely knows how to leverage social media and gambling to find success.

bitbollo

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https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2024/11/07/diretta/trump_elezioni_americane_harris_ultime_notizie_oggi-423602492
Daily news here in Italy, a guy from France that was able to collect 18millions of USD with some side bets on TRUMP elections.
Really interesting the kind of bets and strategy used for prediction. Politics are always intriguing as bets...
Another interesting aspect is also on Polymarket. Their role in the industry can become a new benchmark due P2P approach and less rules then a classic bookmaker Roll Eyes

Haunebu

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on November 07, 2024, 11:47:56 PM

In any case, France might ban Polymarket after a Frenchman won $47 million on his bet on Trump. These French government officials are being stressed by their rulers from the gambling industry heheheh. They want some of this inflow of $3.5 billion to enter their betting houses hehe.

This particular Frenchman that they are talking about is probably responsible for manipulating the bets heavily in Trump's favor which was actually disclosed through various sources sometime back itself.

This dude basically invested a lot of money and recovered it all back along with funds invested by other punters. It's a HYIP in disguise in my opinion. Looks like he and Polymarket are completely screwed now.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: ChiBitCTy on November 06, 2024, 12:38:19 PM

This is why I didnt vote on the election as every time I do so, I end up losing. I thought about placing a bet on Donal Trump as I despise the man with an utter passion, and if he won then at least I could have some sort of a semblance of a win lol. I don't know why but I though Kamala actually had a chance and that she would probably take it down, well per usual when it comes to elections, I am wrong lol.

This is certainly very good that you did not vote because if any voter begins to complain on the government after 2 years, you can tell them this is your fault for participating in their scam hehehehehe.

In any case, France might ban Polymarket after a Frenchman won $47 million on his bet on Trump. These French government officials are being stressed by their rulers from the gambling industry heheheh. They want some of this inflow of $3.5 billion to enter their betting houses hehe.

France's National Gaming Authority is reportedly planning to block Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market platform that saw $3.5 billion in trading volume during the U.S. presidential election.

The regulator is "currently examining [Polymarket's] operation as well as its compliance with French gambling legislation," according to a report from French news outlet The Big Whale.

Regulatory scrutiny emerged after a French trader known as Theo placed multimillion-dollar bets on Donald Trump's victory, ultimately earning a $47 million payout when the former president secured a second term, the report reads.

Read in full https://decrypt.co/290533/polymarket-faces-potential-ban-france-3-5b-from-us-election-report

Sithara007

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Quote from: cabron on November 07, 2024, 11:25:03 AM

Yep, congrats to all the winners. Does it occur to you that the more you see many people won in this bet, the more you feel like you should have bet a huge amount?

I just watched YouTube videos of people who melted down after learning Trump won. It's funny, but it's also sad. These are the guys that shouldn't be political at all since they just listen to one side and not even feel like they have been lied to by their party. And then they actually believe the lies they told about Trump.

Initially the odds for Trump was very unfavorable (like 2.2 or 2.3), that it was not making any sense. Economy was down, inflation was at all time high and people were fed up with illegals. Given this, who would think that Trump is the underdog. But for some unknown reason, during the initial phases, Biden was the clear favorite. And after Kamala replaced him, everyone was giving her much better odds when compared to Trump. But in the end it was a repeat of what happened in 2024. Once again Trump managed to defeat a very unpopular female opponent.

cabron

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Yep, congrats to all the winners. Does it occur to you that the more you see many people won in this bet, the more you feel like you should have bet a huge amount?

I just watched YouTube videos of people who melted down after learning Trump won. It's funny, but it's also sad. These are the guys that shouldn't be political at all since they just listen to one side and not even feel like they have been lied to by their party. And then they actually believe the lies they told about Trump.

EarnOnVictor

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Quote from: usekevin on November 06, 2024, 12:37:45 PM

Quote from: finaleshot2016 on November 06, 2024, 12:36:45 AM

It looks like Trump has a higher probability of winning the presidential race, currently sitting at 230 electoral votes. Many of the remaining key areas, which carry significant electoral votes, seem to be leaning in his favor. Good luck to everyone who placed bets, may the odds be in your favor!

I'm also counting Harris's possible votes, but the probability really seems to be in Trump's favor. Currently 19.00 odds @ stake, insane. GGs for those votes for Trump at good odds.

Trump victory was almost finalised,So many gamblers making money by betting on trump from yesterday.The Odds for the Trump was keep on increasing in many site and specially on the stake.Because one guy had won huge dollars by keeping of 19million dollars.This was the highest bet on the presidential election and then won the money which will settle them in the life.Harris had lost the election almost,but he had a chance of being able to participate in the presidential election.Being a lawyer he made this biggest achievement by take part in the election against the strongest businessman and old president of United States.

Good luck to the winners, especially the lawyers who won big and those who bet among themselves and not with casinos, it's worth it. This Harris vs Trump election result was not strange to me as Trump is the most popular from every angle, but that did not stop my support for the Democratic party and I will do that again.

As for those who won big, well, that's the bookies' loss, but the loss should be limited because some would also bet Harris to win, which will cover up for some money to be paid to the winners.

avp2306

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Quote from: Haunebu on November 07, 2024, 12:31:44 AM

Quote from: darewaller on November 06, 2024, 04:22:09 PM

But for republicans, this means, either they do amazing job, so people would be glad to elect them, or if anything goes wrong, then they are the only one responsible for it. There is absolutely nobody stopping them from doing anything, so either they do good, or they are going to be hated a lot, they have no excuses to do badly now, they can't avoid being great or hated.

Amazing job? Lmao. That's not going to happen. Are you even aware of how they handled everything back when he first came to power in 2016? They were horrible which is primarily why Biden got elected.

As a realist myself, I am not expecting them to make anything better. I just hope they keep everything as it is instead of making it all worse. Let's see what happens.

I just leave it here

For Trump's accomplishment.

https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/trump-administration-accomplishments/

For Biden

https://www.whitehouse.gov/therecord/

Then why Trump lose to Biden https://time.com/5907973/donald-trump-loses-2020-election/

Also reason why Biden ratings decline https://www.aei.org/op-eds/five-reasons-why-biden-might-lose-in-2024/

That's why maybe people choose again Trump to become their President because they don't like the performance of Biden. But Harris is really a good candidate, maybe this is not her time to became the President. Maybe next time he could take the set then lead Americans for possible progress. For now lets congratulate those people who vote and bet for Trump.

Iranus

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Quote from: Haunebu on November 07, 2024, 12:31:44 AM

Quote from: darewaller on November 06, 2024, 04:22:09 PM

But for republicans, this means, either they do amazing job, so people would be glad to elect them, or if anything goes wrong, then they are the only one responsible for it. There is absolutely nobody stopping them from doing anything, so either they do good, or they are going to be hated a lot, they have no excuses to do badly now, they can't avoid being great or hated.

Amazing job? Lmao. That's not going to happen. Are you even aware of how they handled everything back when he first came to power in 2016? They were horrible which is primarily why Biden got elected.

As a realist myself, I am not expecting them to make anything better. I just hope they keep everything as it is instead of making it all worse. Let's see what happens.

If you think what's going on is so much better than Trump's first term, why did Americans vote for Trump in this election? Trump even won convincingly by creating a large gap over Harris. If I'm not mistaken, Trump won all 7 battleground states and Harris's vote received was at a record low and is considered the worst election for the Democrats. Not to mention, Democrats are even at risk of losing control of the House of Representatives, both the Senate and the House of Representatives will be controlled by Republicans. That shows that the American people no longer trust the Democratic Party for what they have done over the past four years.

A world full of war, geopolitical instability and inflation affecting the economy...I don't see anything good in a Biden term.

Haunebu

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Quote from: darewaller on November 06, 2024, 04:22:09 PM

But for republicans, this means, either they do amazing job, so people would be glad to elect them, or if anything goes wrong, then they are the only one responsible for it. There is absolutely nobody stopping them from doing anything, so either they do good, or they are going to be hated a lot, they have no excuses to do badly now, they can't avoid being great or hated.

Amazing job? Lmao. That's not going to happen. Are you even aware of how they handled everything back when he first came to power in 2016? They were horrible which is primarily why Biden got elected.

As a realist myself, I am not expecting them to make anything better. I just hope they keep everything as it is instead of making it all worse. Let's see what happens.

Baofeng

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Quote from: ChiBitCTy on November 06, 2024, 12:38:19 PM

This is why I didnt vote on the election as every time I do so, I end up losing. I thought about placing a bet on Donal Trump as I despise the man with an utter passion, and if he won then at least I could have some sort of a semblance of a win lol. I don't know why but I though Kamala actually had a chance and that she would probably take it down, well per usual when it comes to elections, I am wrong lol.

I didn't bet as well, but if I will, I will go with Trump as well. Initially Trump leads Biden, then there was a shift when Biden back out and Kamala takes over, was close but Kamala took the lead and I said that it's going to be close. But then Trump has swing bets as well, pushing him in the lead but not that big.

And in the last days of the election, it was obvious that Trump has become the betting favorite and so gamblers are right all along. For sure there are gamblers who bet so much money on Trump and it could be in millions so congrats to that guy.

Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! (Read 15349 times)