2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 7.

Sithara007

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Quote from: Poker Player on October 30, 2024, 04:47:48 AM

Quote from: Sithara007 on October 30, 2024, 12:38:37 AM

Once Trump wins the presidency, he should abandon the mail-in ballots through a federal law.

Can you explain to me what the problem is with voting by mail? It is something that is widely done in democratic countries without accusations of widespread fraud.

At least here in India (which happens to be the largest democracy in the planet), we don't have the option either for mail-in voting or early voting. There is a national holiday on the day of voting and in case you can't get to the polling booth to cast your vote, then your chance is gone. And why we don't allow mail-in ballots? Exactly because in the past there were numerous instances of fraud performed through mail-in ballots. In low crime countries such as Japan and Korea it maybe a good idea to allow postal voting. But it has failed in most of the other countries.

Taskford

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Quote from: Haunebu on October 30, 2024, 06:00:21 AM

It's hilarious watching some Trump supporters in this thread clearly looking nervous since even they realised that Harris might actually win this thing. Her recent DC Ellipse rally was something else.

I went all in on Kamala in several betting sites where I found great value for money odds and am expecting her to win and Trump whining yet again that he was cheated. Endgame time!

Actually don't find it hilarious since every opinion is valid since each of us had different ways to support our favorite candidate.

Maybe you find it that way its because you didn't agree on some points they discuss here. But for sure Trump supporters feel also the same if they see something crazy sentiments made up by Harris supporter.

Anyway November 5(Election Day) nearly come and may the best candidate win.

Good discussions here makes betting became more exciting and let see who takes the last laugh when result came.

Haunebu

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It's hilarious watching some Trump supporters in this thread clearly looking nervous since even they realised that Harris might actually win this thing. Her recent DC Ellipse rally was something else.

I went all in on Kamala in several betting sites where I found great value for money odds and am expecting her to win and Trump whining yet again that he was cheated. Endgame time!

sompitonov

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Quote from: satscraper on October 30, 2024, 01:32:10 AM

I think that after Trump's rally held in Allentown, Pennsylvania at night of the last Sunday^{( where the insult to Latinos was cheered publicly)}his chances to win has disappeared. What's happened at that rally in fact supports the view of John Kelly ^{(shared also by recent generals)}who said that Trump is nothing more than fascist who^{(should be elected)}intends to take the law into his own hands to wipe up differently-minded Americans.

Speaking too harshly has never done anyone any good. I don't know what his goal was, but I would never allow myself to say something like that. Besides, yesterday I watched the movie (Wanted Man) 2024 with Dolph Lundgren, after this movie it is clear why many people want to get to the USA. (I will not spoil it so as not to spoil the impression for those who have not seen it).

I also cannot understand why their advisers did not tell them that they cannot publicly state such things, because it can make the advantage in favor of the Democrats. It would be more logical to just calmly get to the voting day without scandals and harsh statements in order to calmly take the victory, but now I do not know who will win.

Poker Player

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Quote from: Sithara007 on October 30, 2024, 12:38:37 AM

Once Trump wins the presidency, he should abandon the mail-in ballots through a federal law.

Can you explain to me what the problem is with voting by mail? It is something that is widely done in democratic countries without accusations of widespread fraud.

satscraper

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I think that after Trump's rally held in Allentown, Pennsylvania at night of the last Sunday^{( where the insult to Latinos was cheered publicly)}his chances to win has disappeared. What's happened at that rally in fact supports the view of John Kelly ^{(shared also by recent generals)}who said that Trump is nothing more than fascist who^{(should be elected)}intends to take the law into his own hands to wipe up differently-minded Americans.

Sithara007

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Quote from: mindrust on October 30, 2024, 12:02:54 AM

Go out and vote people. Trump needs you. We need you. If you think “he already won I don’t need to vote” then you are making a huge mistake. Trump shouldn’t win by 51%, he needs to win by a landslide. Otherwise these crooks will steal the election one more time. If you think you can afford that that’s your choice but don’t feel sorry later on when you see Kabala making her victory speech.

You have one job at the moment. Get out of your comfort zone and vote TRUMP!

This is exactly the point. Once Trump wins the presidency, he should abandon the mail-in ballots through a federal law. At the same time, House and Senate elections are important as well. He should be the POTUS to have sensible judges to be appointed to the SCOTUS. Look at the judges who have been appointed by Biden and Obama - Ketanji Brown Jackson, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan. All three of them incompetent and not suitable for the job, selected only because they are far-left lunatics.

mindrust

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Go out and vote people. Trump needs you. We need you. If you think “he already won I don’t need to vote” then you are making a huge mistake. Trump shouldn’t win by 51%, he needs to win by a landslide. Otherwise these crooks will steal the election one more time. If you think you can afford that that’s your choice but don’t feel sorry later on when you see Kabala making her victory speech.

You have one job at the moment. Get out of your comfort zone and vote TRUMP!

OgNasty

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The fear now is that the media is trying to make it seem like Trump has it in the bag so supporters will feel like maybe they can get away with not taking the time to vote. That, or Harris really is so far behind that it is clearly obvious she is going to lose in a landslide victory for Trump. We’ll find out soon enough. I just hope cheating is kept to a minimum.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: o48o on October 29, 2024, 04:48:26 PM

Quote from: criptoevangelista on October 29, 2024, 05:38:32 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 28, 2024, 11:24:59 PM

-cut-
there are only 4 accounts that owns most of the inflows that is betting on the Donald Trump.
-cut-

-cut-
Even though they say that there is manipulation in polymarket, it is quite difficult to prove it,
-cut-

Is it now? I would say 4 whale wallets pulling most of the weigh in there is a definition of manipulation.

This is where the speculations begin. Are those 4 whales market manipulators or are they insiders who have better sources of information than much of the participants of the prediction markets and sportsbooks? Can these manipulators manipulate the odds on all of the sportsbooks in the world? They have Trump offered on 1.45 to win on November.

These are only my questions from my speculations. I have mentioned already that if Trump will have the victory, it might not be by more than 60% of the electoral college votes. These prediction market participants are under something similar to a fomo heheheheheheee.

Sithara007

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Next week, at this time we will probably get to know who will be the next president of the United States. Not much has changed as per the opinion polls. Outliers here and there are giving slight edge to Kamala in some of the swing states, but apart from that Trump is leading in all of the swing states. Polls from Susquehanna and Quinnipiac are putting Kamala in the lead in Michigan, but majority of the polls are giving advantage to Trump. This seems to be a very tight contest, and we will get to know about the winner only when the votes are counted.

Hispo

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Quote from: pawel7777 on October 29, 2024, 01:24:19 PM

I think the advantage of the polls is that they can measure and adjust to the changing situation a bit quicker than the betting odds.

I am the kind of bettor who believes betting markets could have more accuracy than polls. If you are new within the world of betting on political events, you should see how polls looked like when the Republican party and the Democrat party were about to face one another in the lastest mid-term elections a couple of years ago.
Polls signaled there was going to be pretty much a so-called "red wave" which was going to take both the Senate and the house of representatives from Democrats control into Republican control. It did not happen that way at all.

Also, this is a little bit of a side note, but in my opinion the democrat party should have not decided to pick a woman of color as their nominee. I don't think the USA as a country is completely ready or politically mature so they leave racism and sexism aside when comes to choosing their leaders. As it stands for now, to me it is clear Trump holds a tight advantage over Kamala, the remaining week will be decisive for us to see how the tendency behaves.

o48o

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Quote from: criptoevangelista on October 29, 2024, 05:38:32 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 28, 2024, 11:24:59 PM

-cut-
there are only 4 accounts that owns most of the inflows that is betting on the Donald Trump.
-cut-

-cut-
Even though they say that there is manipulation in polymarket, it is quite difficult to prove it,
-cut-

Is it now? I would say 4 whale wallets pulling most of the weigh in there is a definition of manipulation.

Quote from: alani123 on October 28, 2024, 04:23:25 PM

The Harris campaign is a bit desperate to get celebrity endorsement these days.
Are celebrities still relevant? Don't know, I personally would have never cared. But it seems as though they overdid it so much this time that probably nobody is going to pay attention.
-but-

They overdid it? Trump would desperately want celebrities to endorse him. And all he gets is endorsements from some has been b-list celebrities. But this is nothing new, everyone knows no one likes him, it was so during his presidency as well.

Old but gold: Helmet that Trump received vs the helmet that Obama received after the Patriots won the Super Bowl

Sithara007

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Quote from: pawel7777 on October 29, 2024, 01:24:19 PM

What do you guys think of the mismatch between the polls, that seem to favour Kamala Harris recently (it can change fast though) and the betting odds, where Donald Trump is a decisive favourite, with odds around x1.50 while odds for Harris are around x2.62.

Who/what is more trustworthy in predicting the result: bettors and bookies, who put their money on the line, or the polls?

I think the advantage of the polls is that they can measure and adjust to the changing situation a bit quicker than the betting odds.

I don't agree with the first point. Opinion polls now show Trump leading both the popular vote and electoral college. According to RealClearPolling, Trump is leading in 7 out of the 8 swing states. Michigan is the only swing state where Kamala is leading. Dems could have easily won this election. But similar to 2016, they somehow found a candidate who is even worse than Biden. According to Polymarket, Trump has a 66% chance of winning, while Kamala is trailing at 33%.

pawel7777

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What do you guys think of the mismatch between the polls, that seem to favour Kamala Harris recently (it can change fast though) and the betting odds, where Donald Trump is a decisive favourite, with odds around x1.50 while odds for Harris are around x2.62.

Who/what is more trustworthy in predicting the result: bettors and bookies, who put their money on the line, or the polls?

I think the advantage of the polls is that they can measure and adjust to the changing situation a bit quicker than the betting odds.

Webetcoins

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Nobody can know who will win, not you, not the poll companies, not the pundits on the TV, there is really nobody that can know what's going on and they can't make a decision just yet neither. You are not seeing anything before it happens, not something like this.

Saying Trump is widely ahead because of campaigns means you just watch Trump campaigns, and truth be told republicans to pump and hype that up a lot, but when you look at numbers, they do end up getting same amount of people on their rallies as well so this isn't really all that crazy and could happen in the end.

We should consider how things are changing and we are not going to end up with a much better result on the long run and could be considering how to grow better.

I believe betting on this is much better right now, we could definitely end up with a much better result if we start betting now because the closer we get the better result we are going to get and can predict better than months ago.

virasog

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 28, 2024, 12:11:11 AM

I honestly agree with the surveys and the polls because this would be very difficult to believe that the Donald will win by 65% of all electoral votes? The democrats have the machinery. If Trump will win, it will only be 52% or 53%.

Well, no matter whether Trump win by a high margin or if he wins by 50.1%, he will be the winner and if you bet on him, you will be rewarded. Another thing which got my attention is that there are lot of astrologists from all over the world who are saying that Donald Trump will win this year USA election. I had never seen this conviction by almost all of them predicting his win.

I feel that this bet on the USA can turn out to be most profitable one as most people are voting for Trump in their bet. Sometimes i feel to invest a big portion of my portfolio into trump favors because he seems to be winner and this can be a sureshot bet

beerlover

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Quote from: hedgeh0g on October 28, 2024, 05:21:43 AM

If everything is as you say, then Republicans should not waste their time on this state. Moreover, there is not much time left, it is necessary to concentrate on those for which you can fight and make the final dash on the home stretch.

I think that in those states where there are many immigrants, they usually vote for the blue, because the red ones create much stricter laws for them. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think that there are a lot of immigrants in Miami and probably this state will be more red than blue in these elections.

Even city vs state could be very different as well. Miami is a great example of it, Miami is a city and very much democrat, and yet Florida is a state and very much republican. That is mainly because a state has many cities in it and towns and what not, so if one city is different, that doesn't change the whole entire state with it. That is a very common democrat vs republican story as well, we have seen plenty of cities and states where urban vote goes to democrats and rural vote goes to republicans.

This explains why "living together" as in caring about others and leftist agenda is what matters to democrats since they are all living in urban areas and together with everyone else, whereas personal freedoms and rights are the only thing republicans care because they live in rural areas very far away from each other and get together whenever they want to.

Poker Player

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Quote from: bitgolden on October 29, 2024, 04:35:31 AM

The real answer was that she was good with the top leads of democrat party, otherwise she wasn't what the democrat party members or voters wanted neither. This is the reason why she will lose if she loses this race as well.

This is exactly the reason why Hillary lost as well, she wasn't liked by many people, but superintendents or whatever they are called, overrode what people wanted and gave Hillary the candidacy, which they lost. There hasn't been an election in nearly 20 years where the democrat voters picked a candidate and then lost, only losses were from party officials picking someone.

Can you provide a source, a link for this?

It is curious that the form of election was not very democratic, for a Democratic Party. Paradoxical to say the least. It reminds me of the German Democratic Republic, which was not democratic at all. Although in Kamala's case they have the excuse that time was running out for them.

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Quote from: arwin100 on October 29, 2024, 07:26:29 AM

Yes celebrity endorsement still relevant, They can get a lot of support since those famous personalities have huge following and lots of them would follow what those famous celebrities says. But that's not automatically could give them a win. Since for sure there are lots of thinking voters that those shows made by celebrities is just endorsement which they are benefiting.

It's still dividing. Not all of the fans are going to be political dependent on the endorsement of the celebs. But it's true that they have the influence with a lot of their fans and so as the votes. There's still an impact but as you've said, they're not giving guaranteed votes to the candidates that these celebrities endorsements.

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