These polls look dubious, from what I can see, it seems to me that Trump is significantly ahead of Harris, I'm not talking about polls, but what I see in their campaigns
Do you really think your brain is less bias and more capable of figuring out what 180 million people think than the professional pollsters using actual polls that have been within their margin of error over 99% of the time for decades?
What's your secret? Do you just think really really hard?
Exactly. Back in 2016, these same polls had Trump trailing Hillary Clinton by anywhere from 8 to 10 points in rust belt states, and he won each one of them in the end. The same happened in 2020 as well.
There was one rust belt state that polls had Trump losing by 8 points that he ended up winning. Wisconsin. None by 9. None by 10. (Alaska was about 10, maybe more, but they're not in rust belt and nobody bothered to really poll them that much)
There were also Rust belt states that over estimated Trumps support:
Michigan had Trump winning by 2. He only won by 0.2
Illinois had Clinton winning by 12. She ended up winning by 17.1
Trump was also supposed to win Florida by 5 but only won it by 1.2.
And pollsters adjust their methods every year based on previous elections. If there's an overall miss again, it could just as easily benefit Harris as it does Trump. Imagine all the conspiracy theories you'll probably fall for if that happens.