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Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 10. (Read 15310 times)

legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 2017
October 25, 2024, 08:25:53 AM
This is one of good example that polls is not reliable source to see if the candidate would secure a win. Since it didn't cover up the whole number of voters so there's really changes that happens when election happen and we see that happen before.

This happens in general with statistics. When based on a sample and making an extrapolation there is always a margin of error, which does not have to be the one calculated by the same statistics.And I am talking about those who want to do it in a neutral, honest way. If you want to elaborate statistics to influence public opinion in one way or another, it can be done. In this case, it serves to keep us entertained and to speculate on possibilities until we have the result of the elections, but I am not sure of anything, especially when the key is in a few tens of thousands of swing state voters.
hero member
Activity: 2520
Merit: 783
October 25, 2024, 06:11:08 AM
These polls look dubious, from what I can see, it seems to me that Trump is significantly ahead of Harris, I'm not talking about polls, but what I see in their campaigns, meetings with voters and even how they behave, Trump looks more confident in this regard. Do not think that I give preference to one of them, it does not matter to me who wins, this is just my subjective opinion, as an outside observer, nothing more. It seems to me that if Trump wins, little will change for America, because it is from Biden's team, if Trump, then maybe he will fulfill several of his promises, but it is not yet clear which of them.

Exactly. Back in 2016, these same polls had Trump trailing Hillary Clinton by anywhere from 8 to 10 points in rust belt states, and he won each one of them in the end. The same happened in 2020 as well. Polls underestimated his support in swing states by 4 to 8 points. And there is no indication that the polls have got any better since then. The only demographic group which has shifted towards Dems since 2020 is white women, who support the pro-abortion policies of Kamala. Every other group has drifted away from them.

This is one of good example that polls is not reliable source to see if the candidate would secure a win. Since it didn't cover up the whole number of voters so there's really changes that happens when election happen and we see that happen before.

So even if Harris is leading on poll that doesn't mean a sure win for her since Trump still a strong opponent and provably that there's sudden surprise happen and he would able to take a lead in this race. Also will go to place a bet on Trump since as been discussed in lots of thread I would vote those politicians which possibly could able to bring some at least good acceptance for bitcoin.
donator
Activity: 4760
Merit: 4323
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
October 25, 2024, 03:27:01 AM
With the election so close I’m starting to get a little anxious. I’m looking at a 4 figure payday if Trump wins which will be a nice little surprise. I’ll have to see about getting some more last minute bets in with some good parlays in the next week. What once seemed so far in the future is now looking like it’ll be here in no time at all.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 1460
October 24, 2024, 10:47:24 PM
These polls look dubious, from what I can see, it seems to me that Trump is significantly ahead of Harris, I'm not talking about polls, but what I see in their campaigns, meetings with voters and even how they behave, Trump looks more confident in this regard. Do not think that I give preference to one of them, it does not matter to me who wins, this is just my subjective opinion, as an outside observer, nothing more. It seems to me that if Trump wins, little will change for America, because it is from Biden's team, if Trump, then maybe he will fulfill several of his promises, but it is not yet clear which of them.

Exactly. Back in 2016, these same polls had Trump trailing Hillary Clinton by anywhere from 8 to 10 points in rust belt states, and he won each one of them in the end. The same happened in 2020 as well. Polls underestimated his support in swing states by 4 to 8 points. And there is no indication that the polls have got any better since then. The only demographic group which has shifted towards Dems since 2020 is white women, who support the pro-abortion policies of Kamala. Every other group has drifted away from them.

I reckon that for this election and the increasing popularity of prediction markets, we can certainly witness who is correct, the media pollsters or the prediction market participants.

These are the prediction markets on swings states. Can anyone share the polls and surveys on swing states from the media polls? On the last day of the campaign we post this information, we screenshot the ratings and compare them during the counting of the votes on November hehehehehhe.

https://polymarket.com/markets/politics/swing-states
legendary
Activity: 2716
Merit: 2093
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October 24, 2024, 02:57:16 PM
These polls look dubious, from what I can see, it seems to me that Trump is significantly ahead of Harris, I'm not talking about polls, but what I see in their campaigns

Do you really think your brain is less bias and more capable of figuring out what 180 million people think than the professional pollsters using actual polls that have been within their margin of error over 99% of the time for decades?

What's your secret?  Do you just think really really hard?

Exactly. Back in 2016, these same polls had Trump trailing Hillary Clinton by anywhere from 8 to 10 points in rust belt states, and he won each one of them in the end. The same happened in 2020 as well.

There was one rust belt state that polls had Trump losing by 8 points that he ended up winning.  Wisconsin.  None by 9.  None by 10. (Alaska was about 10, maybe more,  but they're not in rust belt and nobody bothered to really poll them that much)

There were also Rust belt states that over estimated Trumps support:

Michigan had Trump winning by 2.  He only won by 0.2
Illinois had Clinton winning by 12.  She ended up winning by 17.1

Trump was also supposed to win Florida by 5 but only won it by 1.2.

And pollsters adjust their methods every year based on previous elections.  If there's an overall miss again, it could just as easily benefit Harris as it does Trump.  Imagine all the conspiracy theories you'll probably fall for if that happens.
legendary
Activity: 3346
Merit: 1352
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
October 24, 2024, 12:43:09 PM
These polls look dubious, from what I can see, it seems to me that Trump is significantly ahead of Harris, I'm not talking about polls, but what I see in their campaigns, meetings with voters and even how they behave, Trump looks more confident in this regard. Do not think that I give preference to one of them, it does not matter to me who wins, this is just my subjective opinion, as an outside observer, nothing more. It seems to me that if Trump wins, little will change for America, because it is from Biden's team, if Trump, then maybe he will fulfill several of his promises, but it is not yet clear which of them.

Exactly. Back in 2016, these same polls had Trump trailing Hillary Clinton by anywhere from 8 to 10 points in rust belt states, and he won each one of them in the end. The same happened in 2020 as well. Polls underestimated his support in swing states by 4 to 8 points. And there is no indication that the polls have got any better since then. The only demographic group which has shifted towards Dems since 2020 is white women, who support the pro-abortion policies of Kamala. Every other group has drifted away from them.
sr. member
Activity: 1008
Merit: 262
Vave.com - Crypto Casino
October 24, 2024, 10:47:03 AM
Trump is winning thanks god. I was afraid of another fuck up but I guess Americans still had some common sense left in them. 2020 was not supposed to happen (some say the election was stolen too) and I guess this time they are going to make it right. Kabala's ratings drop dramatically after her FOX News interview. Such a clueless person. Way worse than Biden.

They say KabalA is younger than Trump and that a plus for her... It is actually the other way around. Kabala looked like a demented fool mumbling random shit during the Fox News interview while Trump is like a machine gun ready for anything anytime and that includes assassination attempts. Go Trump
You can actually make your points without using demeaning on the candidate of the Democratic Party. Using such vulgar words you used to describe her I don't think is a good omen from you especially on a forum where people from different parts of the world are members.
I love Trump and supports him to win the US presidential polls but that doesn't mean I'll have to discredit Kamala by insulting him when I can be civil to convince electorates to vote for Trump. Trump is currently leading and I hope he succeeds at the end of the polls.
This kind of poll should not be taking too seriously because the opposite can still happen at the end of everything.
I don't take this kind of matter very seriously because I know that politics can go which ever way depending on the numbers of states each political candidates can win to reach the sum total. Using derogatory names to abuse any candidate is wrong and we should not embrace that. Every single opinion matters here and that is why we need to focus on what we think about this poll rather than taking it too far.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 236
October 24, 2024, 10:35:58 AM

You don't need to trust Polymarket. Look at polling aggregators such as RealClearPolling. According to them, Kamala is ahead by just 0.2% against Trump in popular vote (48.7% vs 48.5%). And according to the same site, Trump is leading in all of the swing states. At the moment, RealClearPolling gives 312 electoral votes to Trump/Vance, and just 226 for Harris/Walz. With each passing day, Kamala's 2024 campaign is resembling the 2016 POTUS campaign by Hillary Clinton.
These polls look dubious, from what I can see, it seems to me that Trump is significantly ahead of Harris, I'm not talking about polls, but what I see in their campaigns, meetings with voters and even how they behave, Trump looks more confident in this regard. Do not think that I give preference to one of them, it does not matter to me who wins, this is just my subjective opinion, as an outside observer, nothing more. It seems to me that if Trump wins, little will change for America, because it is from Biden's team, if Trump, then maybe he will fulfill several of his promises, but it is not yet clear which of them.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 2017
October 24, 2024, 09:24:06 AM
You don't need to trust Polymarket. Look at polling aggregators such as RealClearPolling. According to them, Kamala is ahead by just 0.2% against Trump in popular vote (48.7% vs 48.5%). And according to the same site, Trump is leading in all of the swing states. At the moment, RealClearPolling gives 312 electoral votes to Trump/Vance, and just 226 for Harris/Walz. With each passing day, Kamala's 2024 campaign is resembling the 2016 POTUS campaign by Hillary Clinton.

It is not only that, the trend of the polls is clear, it seems that Trump is ahead, what is being noticed is that the Democrats are desperate, and that is usually a symptom that the polls they handle internally do not like them at all.
legendary
Activity: 3346
Merit: 1352
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
October 24, 2024, 08:26:20 AM
From most of the polls I have seen recently, Kamala Harris lost some points to Donald Trump. She was leading during the first period she was made the democratic candidate and Trump called it her "Honeymoon period". Indeed it was her honeymoon because she seems to be losing some support. Barak Obama was encouraging black male voters not to give excuses about voting for her which shows that she is losing their support. Some polls have it that she is losing the support of Arab-American voters.

Nevertheless, I believe Polymarket predictions look suspicious. Maybe it is manipulated, or the platforms have been used for political reasons. We all know that both candidates are in a close race. The difference between them shouldn't be more than 1-3%. All these dramas will end in less than fifteen days, and we will have a winner.

You don't need to trust Polymarket. Look at polling aggregators such as RealClearPolling. According to them, Kamala is ahead by just 0.2% against Trump in popular vote (48.7% vs 48.5%). And according to the same site, Trump is leading in all of the swing states. At the moment, RealClearPolling gives 312 electoral votes to Trump/Vance, and just 226 for Harris/Walz. With each passing day, Kamala's 2024 campaign is resembling the 2016 POTUS campaign by Hillary Clinton.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 987
Give all before death
October 22, 2024, 12:13:35 PM
Polymarket has gone crazy. At this point, it is giving Donald Trump a 64.8% chance of winning the POTUS elections, while Kamala Harris is being given only a 35.4% chance. And state-level results are even crazier. Trump is being favored in all of the swing states. 62% in Pennsylvania, 59% in Michigan, 57% in Wisconsin, 63% in Nevada, 74% in Arizona, 71% in Georgia and 70% in North Carolina. These sort of leads are just massive, and points out to a Trump landslide win in 15 days from now.
From most of the polls I have seen recently, Kamala Harris lost some points to Donald Trump. She was leading during the first period she was made the democratic candidate and Trump called it her "Honeymoon period". Indeed it was her honeymoon because she seems to be losing some support. Barak Obama was encouraging black male voters not to give excuses about voting for her which shows that she is losing their support. Some polls have it that she is losing the support of Arab-American voters.

Nevertheless, I believe Polymarket predictions look suspicious. Maybe it is manipulated, or the platforms have been used for political reasons. We all know that both candidates are in a close race. The difference between them shouldn't be more than 1-3%. All these dramas will end in less than fifteen days, and we will have a winner.
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 1882
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
October 22, 2024, 12:03:12 PM

So far, Trump's seems to be the favorite one. I am just curious to see whether Kamala will change her stand on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency or she will stick to the Biden agenda.


This is already something that complicates a lot, in any case on November 5 there will be a result and something must be drawn, if the polls favor Trump then it can be said that the polls are still reliable and transparent, if not, then the results they throw up for a next presidential contest are quite debatable, because it will be something unreliable, it is difficult because it should be an indicator of feelings, something like the btc of fear, panic, the famous indicator , and particularly what you say about Kamala is a fact, it will not follow what Biden does, it will follow whoever sends Biden , there are things that happen in the world and they are so dark that sometimes even speaking is dangerous.

legendary
Activity: 3346
Merit: 1352
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
October 22, 2024, 11:54:39 AM
Polymarket has gone crazy. At this point, it is giving Donald Trump a 64.8% chance of winning the POTUS elections, while Kamala Harris is being given only a 35.4% chance. And state-level results are even crazier. Trump is being favored in all of the swing states. 62% in Pennsylvania, 59% in Michigan, 57% in Wisconsin, 63% in Nevada, 74% in Arizona, 71% in Georgia and 70% in North Carolina. These sort of leads are just massive, and points out to a Trump landslide win in 15 days from now.

STT
legendary
Activity: 4088
Merit: 1452
October 22, 2024, 10:21:28 AM
What advantage is there to some duplicate blockchain.  I'm wanting to hear what innovation, how do people benefit from this over Bitcoin ?   A branding doesnt help, Satoshi as a figure literally disappeared from that project and added value by doing so;  Trump plus a coin doesnt help any likely.

   Politics is the opposite of what you want in a blockchain, sounds alot like how everyone jumped on NFT and as a money maker idea they see Bitcoin overall as nothing separate to that, just another printed T shirt to sell which is really not how it works at all.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/17/trump-crypto-project-allows-ex-president-family-to-make-75percent-of-revenue.html

A third of a billion in initial value, again we know Bitcoin started off almost worthless it was only the vision of the first people to use it that ever gave it some value slowly at first.  So again the situation is the opposite of what made Bitcoin.


Its a waste of time at best, no news and at worst a rip off scam of a project sounds like but I would not figure it will alter the betting prospects overall.   The election is mainstream and crypto still isnt greatly understood or imo widely in the grasp of the main population so it is no news.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 2017
October 22, 2024, 09:51:53 AM
if the prediction reaches 53% usually the final result can be more and even less, seeing this confusion will be created where kamala and trump have different appeals, but if trump remains focused on being pro bitcoin then it can be said that there will be many people / BTC owners in the US who support him

Although there seems to be a consensus in recent polls that Trump is ahead, as the election is ultimately decided in swing states we can take nothing for granted. In fact, it might be a smart move on the part of the Democratic apparatus to promote statistics in which Trump wins to see if some Republicans get confident and stay home.

It's crazy what this man can get away. With just days to go for the election he even launched his own shitcoin...

We already know what the shitcoin will be used for, to enrich himself and fleece a lot of little fish.

Well, it seems to be working though. In many ways he's doing better than in 2020.

I don't think it is so much his merit as the opponent's foolishness.
sr. member
Activity: 1330
Merit: 257
DGbet.fun - Crypto Sportsbook
October 22, 2024, 09:17:54 AM
Recent polls show Trump with a clear lead, but I don't think they reflect reality. Polls are like statistics and don't always give us the data that helps us reach the right conclusion. I think Trump is more likely to win the elections, but I don't think it will be that much of a difference... Also, from what I see here, Trump is trying to survive with his usual populist rhetoric, while Kamala is clinging to hatred of Trump...

Agreed. If Trump or Kamala has the lead it might be only 53% for the leader and 47% for the other candidate. Similar to the elections before, it appears that it will again be the swing states that will decide who will become the next president. It also appears that Kamala in the prediction markets is very undervalued. She is presently only on 36.5%. In reality, I speculate that she should be on 47% or more. It would be headshaking to presently bet on Trump. The chance to bet on him is on 50% or lower.

if the prediction reaches 53% usually the final result can be more and even less, seeing this confusion will be created where kamala and trump have different appeals, but if trump remains focused on being pro bitcoin then it can be said that there will be many people / BTC owners in the US who support him
hero member
Activity: 3178
Merit: 977
www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games
October 22, 2024, 08:55:20 AM
Recent polls show Trump with a clear lead, but I don't think they reflect reality.
Nonsense. Most polls show Harris winning by small margins while the betting markets show Trump winning by huge margins at present.

In reality, I speculate that she should be on 47% or more. It would be headshaking to presently bet on Trump. The chance to bet on him is on 50% or lower.
These percentages are just numbers thrown around at the end of the day. What matters more are the battleground/swing states which is where both candidates are campaigning in currently. They decide the fate of this election.
legendary
Activity: 2422
Merit: 1451
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
October 22, 2024, 01:40:37 AM
Thing with republicans has notoriously been, is that every accusation seems to be a confession, so one starts to wonder how many republicans are actually trying to vote illegally.

Just like their conspiracy theories about Soros paying for voters. They are now doing that themselves openly via Elon Musk's $1 million per-day giveaway.

But yeah, people seem to forget that this is about electoral votes, and not by gambling statistics.

It's quite funny, when republicans were honest (see Mitt Romney arguing "CORPORATIONS ARE PEOPLE TOO, MY FRIEND"), defending some of the least popular parts of American law like corporate rights, political donation rights to mega-donors etc... They would lose elections. Now Trump tries to play it anti establishment and attack his opponents for being close to part of the status quo, while he himself is running his entire campaign in billionaire donations.

It's crazy what this man can get away. With just days to go for the election he even launched his own shitcoin... Well, it seems to be working though. In many ways he's doing better than in 2020.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 1460
October 21, 2024, 11:07:11 PM
Recent polls show Trump with a clear lead, but I don't think they reflect reality. Polls are like statistics and don't always give us the data that helps us reach the right conclusion. I think Trump is more likely to win the elections, but I don't think it will be that much of a difference... Also, from what I see here, Trump is trying to survive with his usual populist rhetoric, while Kamala is clinging to hatred of Trump...

Agreed. If Trump or Kamala has the lead it might be only 53% for the leader and 47% for the other candidate. Similar to the elections before, it appears that it will again be the swing states that will decide who will become the next president. It also appears that Kamala in the prediction markets is very undervalued. She is presently only on 36.5%. In reality, I speculate that she should be on 47% or more. It would be headshaking to presently bet on Trump. The chance to bet on him is on 50% or lower.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 2017
October 21, 2024, 10:23:56 AM
Quote
In swing, battlefield states, by importing undocumented illegal immigrants and allowing them to legally votes in the President Election, Kamala Harris and Democratic Party are trying to win these swing states with very low margin. They don't need to win these swing states with Popular Votes, they need Electoral Votes, and win very low margin for winning, it's enough for Kamala.
This is false and stupid.  They aren't importing people.  And you can't legally vote if you are not a legal resident.  Anytime you hear something about illegal immigrants voting, it's almost certainly fake news.

Here I'm going to partially agree with TwitchySeal, this thing about newly arrived illegal immigrants being able to vote is bullshit. What I do think, and here I know we are not going to agree, is that the Democrats' plan is to facilitate residence permits and subsequent naturalization, speeding things up, while giving them benefits to get captive voters. But this is a long-term plan.

This is not only happening in the USA, but also in the EU until recently at least, although it seems that the latest turn is already looking at reality and not at the socialist woke fantasy world.

The same for the UK. Wonderful plan there, they opted for the Brexit because that they seemed to be very annoyed by the Poles and Italians and after exiting they left the door open to illegal immigration mainly from Muslim countries. This the retards of the Tories, and now with Labor the plan is boosted.
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