Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 3. (Read 15310 times)
I’m feeling pretty good about my Trump wagers at the moment. I was hoping we’d see a more definitive victory by now, but I think we’re still going to see the night end with Trump having enough electoral votes for Kamala to concede. I’m a bit disappointed to see my home state of Arizona so blue, but I guess it is what it is.
Let's see how the prediction market groans when they pays the winnings if Trump eventually wins.
Nope. As per Polymarket, bets in favor of Donald Trump amounted to $1,444 million, while those for Kamala amounted to $957 million. Given the odds they had, they are going to end up in profit.
Anyway, here are the latest projections from "The Needle":
Georgia: Trump +2.5%, >95% of vote in
North Carolina: Trump +3.4%, 92% of vote in
Michigan: Trump +2.2%, 51% of vote in
Pennsylvania: Trump +1.9%, 87% of vote in
Wisconsin: Trump +1.9%, 78% of vote in
Virginia: Kamala +5.2%, 92% of vote in
New Mexico: Kamala +5.2%, 89% of vote in
New Hampshire: Kamala +3.1%, 79% of vote in
New Jersey: Kamala +6.4%, 89% of vote in
New York: Kamala +13%, 89% of vote in
Minnesota: Kamala +3.5%, 57% of vote in
Florida: Trump +13%, >95% of vote in
Iowa: Trump +13%, 91% of vote in
Arizona: Trump +4.1%, 53% of vote in
Texas: Trump +13%, 88% of vote in
Polymarket now shows a 94% probability for Trump.
Not only Polymarket, the market in general is betting on an increasingly likely Trump victory, as can be seen in the price increase. We will have to see especially how the “Blue Wall” states look, but Trump is leading there as well.Let's see how the prediction market groans when they pays the winnings if Trump eventually wins.
Polymarket now shows a 94% probability for Trump.
Not only Polymarket, the market in general is betting on an increasingly likely Trump victory, as can be seen in the price increase. We will have to see especially how the “Blue Wall” states look, but Trump is leading there as well.
Polymarket now shows a 94% probability for Trump.
Latest projections from "The Needle":
Georgia: Trump +2.6%, >95% of vote in
North Carolina: Trump +3.3%, 89% of vote in
Michigan: Trump +2.4%, 35% of vote in
Pennsylvania: Trump +1.9%, 77% of vote in
Wisconsin: Trump +2.0%, 68% of vote in
Virginia: Kamala +4.8%, 83% of vote in
New Mexico: Kamala +5.0%, 75% of vote in
New Hampshire: Kamala +3.3%, 71% of vote in
New Jersey: Kamala +6.5%, 88% of vote in
New York: Kamala +14%, 86% of vote in
Minnesota: Kamala +2.3%, 16% of vote in
Florida: Trump +13%, >95% of vote in
Iowa: Trump +13%, 85% of vote in
Arizona: Trump +4.3%, 53% of vote in
Texas: Trump +13%, 83% of vote in
Latest projections from "The Needle":
Georgia: Trump +2.6%, >95% of vote in
North Carolina: Trump +3.3%, 89% of vote in
Michigan: Trump +2.4%, 35% of vote in
Pennsylvania: Trump +1.9%, 77% of vote in
Wisconsin: Trump +2.0%, 68% of vote in
Virginia: Kamala +4.8%, 83% of vote in
New Mexico: Kamala +5.0%, 75% of vote in
New Hampshire: Kamala +3.3%, 71% of vote in
New Jersey: Kamala +6.5%, 88% of vote in
New York: Kamala +14%, 86% of vote in
Minnesota: Kamala +2.3%, 16% of vote in
Florida: Trump +13%, >95% of vote in
Iowa: Trump +13%, 85% of vote in
Arizona: Trump +4.3%, 53% of vote in
Texas: Trump +13%, 83% of vote in
Things are more clear now. Latest projections:
Georgia: Trump +2.6%, 85% of vote in
North Carolina: Trump +3.2%, 70% of vote in
Michigan: Trump +1.8%, 19% of vote in
Pennsylvania: Trump +1.9%, 51% of vote in
Wisconsin: Trump +1.0%, 44% of vote in
Virginia: Kamala +4.6%, 70% of vote in
New Mexico: Kamala +4.8%, 29% of vote in
New Hampshire: Kamala +3.9%, 52% of vote in
Minnesota: Kamala +3.9%, 2% of vote in
Florida: Trump +13%, >95% of vote in
Iowa: Trump +11%, 41% of vote in
Texas: Trump +12%, 73% of vote in
Georgia: Trump +2.6%, 85% of vote in
North Carolina: Trump +3.2%, 70% of vote in
Michigan: Trump +1.8%, 19% of vote in
Pennsylvania: Trump +1.9%, 51% of vote in
Wisconsin: Trump +1.0%, 44% of vote in
Virginia: Kamala +4.6%, 70% of vote in
New Mexico: Kamala +4.8%, 29% of vote in
New Hampshire: Kamala +3.9%, 52% of vote in
Minnesota: Kamala +3.9%, 2% of vote in
Florida: Trump +13%, >95% of vote in
Iowa: Trump +11%, 41% of vote in
Texas: Trump +12%, 73% of vote in
Majority of the polls are predicting a Harris win now by a very small margin, but they are all obviously in the margin of error. Hope Pennsylvania goes to Harris somehow.
This rating is from Polymarket.
I bet on Harris thanks to amazing value for money odds since the actual odds are still evenly split between both of them currently with Pennsylvania probably being their final test. Fingers crossed.Agreed on your assessment on Pennsylvania. This is also where everyone is speculating that might decide the winner. I am very much hoping that this will be the Donald Trump because he is my bet. However, if the going back to the presidency is not in Trump's destiny, congratulations to the voters, supporters of Kamala and also the gamblers hehehehhe. It was a very good discussing and arguing with everyone in the election threads.
The development team of Polymarket might presently be shaking their heads because after this election, what will be their next big markets hehehe. They should begin hyping the Oscar awards, I reckon.
Trump definetly has the early lead however the nature of the results could still be deceptive. The way they count the votes is non linear of course and I seem to remember this dynamic last time where Rep was ahead at first but later suffered the eventual declared loss. Obviously part of that story was what led to the continual calls for recounts and a stolen election etc. There is a danger in calling it too soon of course and should be discouraged as very uncertain for quite some time.
https://www.tbsnews.net/worldbiz/usa/dont-be-fooled-early-us-vote-counts-they-might-be-misleading-985551
Quote
Pennsylvania did not have a clear winner in 2020 for four days after Election Day, as officials sifted through a huge backlog of mail ballots.
The state is among only a handful that do not permit election workers to process or tabulate mail ballots until 7 a.m. ET on Election Day, which means it will likely again take days before the outcome is known.
Was just reading this which might be an extreme example but overall there are repeated instances where the votes can swing about before a certain result can be declared.The state is among only a handful that do not permit election workers to process or tabulate mail ballots until 7 a.m. ET on Election Day, which means it will likely again take days before the outcome is known.
https://www.tbsnews.net/worldbiz/usa/dont-be-fooled-early-us-vote-counts-they-might-be-misleading-985551
Winning.
Thank you America.
Things are looking really good for Trump.
According to the New York Times Needle, as per the counting done so far, this is the projected margin in swing states:
Georgia: Trump +2.3%, 73% of vote in
North Carolina: Trump +3.4%, 51% of vote in
Michigan: Trump +0.1%, 12% of vote in
Pennsylvania: Trump +0.6%, 24% of vote in
Wisconsin: Even +0.0%, 7% of vote in
Virginia: Kamala +4.6%, 58% of vote in
New Mexico: Kamala +5.7%, 12% of vote in
New Hampshire: Kamala +3.9%, 38% of vote in
Minnesota: Kamala +4.5%, 1% of vote in
Florida: Trump +13%, >95% of vote in
Iowa: Trump +8.6%, 11% of vote in
Texas: Trump +11%, 65% of vote in
According to the New York Times Needle, as per the counting done so far, this is the projected margin in swing states:
Georgia: Trump +2.3%, 73% of vote in
North Carolina: Trump +3.4%, 51% of vote in
Michigan: Trump +0.1%, 12% of vote in
Pennsylvania: Trump +0.6%, 24% of vote in
Wisconsin: Even +0.0%, 7% of vote in
Virginia: Kamala +4.6%, 58% of vote in
New Mexico: Kamala +5.7%, 12% of vote in
New Hampshire: Kamala +3.9%, 38% of vote in
Minnesota: Kamala +4.5%, 1% of vote in
Florida: Trump +13%, >95% of vote in
Iowa: Trump +8.6%, 11% of vote in
Texas: Trump +11%, 65% of vote in
Things are more clear now. Latest projections:
Georgia: Trump +2.6%, 85% of vote in
North Carolina: Trump +3.2%, 70% of vote in
Michigan: Trump +1.8%, 19% of vote in
Pennsylvania: Trump +1.9%, 51% of vote in
Wisconsin: Trump +1.0%, 44% of vote in
Virginia: Kamala +4.6%, 70% of vote in
New Mexico: Kamala +4.8%, 29% of vote in
New Hampshire: Kamala +3.9%, 52% of vote in
Minnesota: Kamala +3.9%, 2% of vote in
Florida: Trump +13%, >95% of vote in
Iowa: Trump +11%, 41% of vote in
Texas: Trump +12%, 73% of vote in
Things are looking really good for Trump.
According to the New York Times Needle, as per the counting done so far, this is the projected margin in swing states:
Georgia: Trump +2.3%, 73% of vote in
North Carolina: Trump +3.4%, 51% of vote in
Michigan: Trump +0.1%, 12% of vote in
Pennsylvania: Trump +0.6%, 24% of vote in
Wisconsin: Even +0.0%, 7% of vote in
Virginia: Kamala +4.6%, 58% of vote in
New Mexico: Kamala +5.7%, 12% of vote in
New Hampshire: Kamala +3.9%, 38% of vote in
Minnesota: Kamala +4.5%, 1% of vote in
Florida: Trump +13%, >95% of vote in
Iowa: Trump +8.6%, 11% of vote in
Texas: Trump +11%, 65% of vote in
According to the New York Times Needle, as per the counting done so far, this is the projected margin in swing states:
Georgia: Trump +2.3%, 73% of vote in
North Carolina: Trump +3.4%, 51% of vote in
Michigan: Trump +0.1%, 12% of vote in
Pennsylvania: Trump +0.6%, 24% of vote in
Wisconsin: Even +0.0%, 7% of vote in
Virginia: Kamala +4.6%, 58% of vote in
New Mexico: Kamala +5.7%, 12% of vote in
New Hampshire: Kamala +3.9%, 38% of vote in
Minnesota: Kamala +4.5%, 1% of vote in
Florida: Trump +13%, >95% of vote in
Iowa: Trump +8.6%, 11% of vote in
Texas: Trump +11%, 65% of vote in
Looking good. I just got my final bets in on the Presidential race. Nothing to do now but sit and wait with my fingers crossed. Earlier I asked Grok what Trump's chance to win was and Grok responded that it was 58.5%. I just asked Grok again and was told that Trump now has a 60.3% chance of winning. I like the development I'm seeing here. In another 3 hours polls should start really dumping numbers on us and we should have an idea if this will be a landslide or not.
Oh it seems the favor is with Trump in this projection.
This is good sight for Trumps bettor.
Anyone can see the updates here https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html
For sure we can see more interesting insights later on and if we can see Trump will totally dominate Harris in this race.
Also this is live on tiktok by BBC news https://vt.tiktok.com/ZSjh9DH1R/
Looking good. I just got my final bets in on the Presidential race. Nothing to do now but sit and wait with my fingers crossed. Earlier I asked Grok what Trump's chance to win was and Grok responded that it was 58.5%. I just asked Grok again and was told that Trump now has a 60.3% chance of winning. I like the development I'm seeing here. In another 3 hours polls should start really dumping numbers on us and we should have an idea if this will be a landslide or not.
This is not going to be a landslide election, it does not need to be a genius to translate the data available out there and realize this is going to be razor thin election, as it was back in 2020 when Trump could not accept he lost to Joe Biden.
If you make your money back and make even more of your initial wager it will be by pure chance and because a relatively small percentage of people in swing state decided to go for Trump instead of Kamala. In the way I see it, due to the lack of an October Surprise, this has simply become a coin flip...
I'd like to point out that in the last few days Michigan and Wisconsin which were considered states that were battleground states, are now closer to Kamala. So Pennsylvania was Trump's hope, but democrats still had an advantage with early voting. So IF republicans take the state, it would be on a very small small margin of votes. It's going to be a very tight race. But predictions are kinds living too much towards Trump I feel, it's not going to go down like this for him.
Looking good. I just got my final bets in on the Presidential race. Nothing to do now but sit and wait with my fingers crossed. Earlier I asked Grok what Trump's chance to win was and Grok responded that it was 58.5%. I just asked Grok again and was told that Trump now has a 60.3% chance of winning. I like the development I'm seeing here. In another 3 hours polls should start really dumping numbers on us and we should have an idea if this will be a landslide or not.
I tried to check if there were any results yet, but even predictions in most places are still saying that it is very close race. I assumed that when the day of election starts, we could make some deductions but obviously that wasn't the case and we need to still wait. Polls are going to close in a few hours in most of the nation, at least the parts that matters, so we need to remember that even after polls are closed, we will not have results that will change the ending, we need to be careful on what we pick and should be doing better on the long run.
I believe the greatest thing we could do right now would be just focusing on waiting, because if we keep trying then we will only be getting closer to misinformation and there is no need for that to happen. We can't know the results before everyone else just because we keep googling it, we need to just wait and learn like everyone else. Time will give the results, just one more day and we will have the results anyway, most of them at least.
I believe the greatest thing we could do right now would be just focusing on waiting, because if we keep trying then we will only be getting closer to misinformation and there is no need for that to happen. We can't know the results before everyone else just because we keep googling it, we need to just wait and learn like everyone else. Time will give the results, just one more day and we will have the results anyway, most of them at least.
Searching also for unofficial count but nothings shows so meaning there's no total votes each state has been transmitted yet that's why we didn't see any update yet.
But I frequently watching The New York Times if I can see some updates https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html
Time would really tell on who among these two politicians will win. I don't blame people to keep searching about the result since for sure they are curious to know if their supported politicians is going to win since that provably show that they also have huge chance to win on their bets placed.
This is my first time posting in this thread. I went allin with my earnings from the JackToken FortuneJack Telegram mini app. I voted for Donald Trump without doing any research, just because of the hype lol. I just want to ask when we'll know the results? I'm really excited because in the JackToken Telegram app, if your pick wins, you can win a share of $30,000. And I think only a few people voted on their Telegram app.
There is no definite time when it all depends also how quick they are going to count the absentee votes. Good luck with your bet, betting from rewards looks no-risk at all as you're only placing a bet based on the efforts you've done. And if Trump wins then there you go, you'll have a share with that amount and if you're only few did that, I am sure this is what excites you more. 
I tried to check if there were any results yet, but even predictions in most places are still saying that it is very close race. I assumed that when the day of election starts, we could make some deductions but obviously that wasn't the case and we need to still wait. Polls are going to close in a few hours in most of the nation, at least the parts that matters, so we need to remember that even after polls are closed, we will not have results that will change the ending, we need to be careful on what we pick and should be doing better on the long run.
I believe the greatest thing we could do right now would be just focusing on waiting, because if we keep trying then we will only be getting closer to misinformation and there is no need for that to happen. We can't know the results before everyone else just because we keep googling it, we need to just wait and learn like everyone else. Time will give the results, just one more day and we will have the results anyway, most of them at least.
I believe the greatest thing we could do right now would be just focusing on waiting, because if we keep trying then we will only be getting closer to misinformation and there is no need for that to happen. We can't know the results before everyone else just because we keep googling it, we need to just wait and learn like everyone else. Time will give the results, just one more day and we will have the results anyway, most of them at least.
Looks like the odds on old Donny boy are going to end up around 1.61:1 as betting comes to a close. Now we cross our fingers and hope that nothing crazy happens. This could be the largest political win ever for Bitcoin if Trump can pull this off. I'm throwing a few more bucks at a Trump win before the excitement starts up. According to Grok, sentiment seems to be favoring Trump at the moment. Grok said Trump has a 58.5% chance of winning currently.
Trump is once again surging in Polymarket. Initially he was leading 67% to 33%, and then it went down to 54% to 46% as a few polls showed Kamala leading in rust belt states. But now once again he is leading by a healthy margin (62% to 38%). But a lot will depend on Pennsylvania. If Trump loses this state, then he essentially need to win every other swing state (including Wisconsin and Michigan), or flip one of the blue states (such as New Hampshire, Minnesota, Virginia or even New Mexico).
BTW, Elon just tweeted this (change in voter registration between 2020 and 2024):
Thanks you very much for this update. I thinking were to see US election update and you just gave me the preamble of the election. I will still need the full breakdown of the states results in all the states.in US and the leading candidate of them all. Because we that are in the forum are also interested in this election. And I just saw a pop up text that Donald Trump has a margin to win the election with 24.5% from Polymarket in his fans X handle. And from all view points, Trump will win the election. Though politics is a game of prediction. And that is my prediction. BTW, Elon just tweeted this (change in voter registration between 2020 and 2024):
We’re now in the final moments of the election race. Since polls show both candidates are very close, both Trump and Harris are still campaigning with full force. Overall, Harris' performance since replacing Biden has been generally good, but she would be in a much more comfortable position if she didn't make a few gaffes in the last few weeks.
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