2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 6.

Hispo

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Quote from: STT on June 03, 2024, 09:00:39 AM

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He can certainly appeal and he is already working on it. But since I am not an expert on those kinds of things, and how the criminal law applies in the United States, it would be worth asking: does not he get the tag or get labeled as a convinced felon in the eyes of the American law system? or is it supposed to be waited after the appeal before he can get tagged as a felon.?
Because, to be honest, I believe there are many people within the country who identify themselves as Republicans and yet they have a high enough moral bar so they would not vote for a person who was found auikty of a felony in the State of New York (there are several other cases pending).

Being a felon could make Trump to lose the vote of the moderate Republicans, those who are not going to vote for a democrat in any situation, but still they could not find themselves to send a felon to the white house. I am expecting to see how this conviction and the appeal could change they odds on the betting markets in the end (assuming there will be even a reaction by the markets).

bbc.reporter

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@STT. I very much agree which I speculate that the sportsbooks and prediction markets offers to not be the correct odds. The present odds of 1.70 is an overestimation of Trump's victory, I reckon. The news media outlets presently also appear to be overestimating Trumps odds on winning on November. This is certainly very head shaking. They reporting this with the assumption that the prediction market on Polymarket us a source of truth.

Trump Conviction Barely Dents His Odds of Winning Election: Prediction Markets

Plus: Polymarket traders doubt Trump will go to prison; Kalshi bettors are at odds with the CME FedWatch poll on rate cuts.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2024/06/03/trump-conviction-barely-dents-his-odds-of-winning-election-prediction-markets/

STT

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I dont think the trial makes a difference to Trump getting in at this point, no elaborate point is required as to the reason why either. Its simply that the trial is not over until you exhaust all appeals, so you have the first verdict but not the final verdict and nothing is going to happen conclusively before the election.

I dont even guess that he will win but I wouldn't say its any less likely because of this trial. I do think he had already lost as least some of the middle ground in the electoral college of voters which is what he needed for the overall win.

Casdinyard

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Quote from: alani123 on March 11, 2024, 08:17:53 AM

Let's have a thread to discuss gambling on the 2024 United States Presidential election!
Remember: This is a thread about gambling, we go by the official results. For disputing past events you can go on the politics board.

Amazingly it looks like we're headed straight to yet another Biden vs. Trump race.

It's also a first for this year's race for how old both candidates are. Interestingly, bookmakers have added several other picks to the table other than Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The chances of either dying prior to the race aren't that unlikely it seems. Also in the case of Donald Trump, several cases are proceeding in the courts, which some are speculating might hinder his bid to the presidency.

Image source via Stake

Let's discuss the likelihood of each candidate winning the election, events, as well as which platforms offer this market for crypto-enabled bets.

Honestly can't wrap my head around the fact that the US is going to re-elect a convicted felon, and that his greatest electoral adversary is a senile clown who's getting puppeteered by the party he's in so they can abuse the hell out of the system. I think it's about time they choose someone else, and that they actually find a more capable candidate, preferably someone who's got his/her pulse in the current situation of the country and everything else, not someone with outdated visions and ideas about how the world works, and most definitely someone who's not senile and sleepy all the time.

Shit goes to the drain I'm gonna urge my naturalized relatives to vote Kanye West instead lol. No way in hell they are the two most prominent candidates in this electoral run, we got a shitshow in the Philippines ourselves but at the very least the contender is pretty much the most capable politician this country could ever have and offer.

If Trump wins this election we're all fucked, if Biden wins this we are kinda fucked, we have to choose among lesser evils here unfortunately which is kinda messed up if I do say so myself.

bbc.reporter

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What does everyone speculate on Trump's chance on being nominated as the official candidate for the Republicans after his conviction as a felon? Is it very much possible for them to support another candidate or is it late to make another choice? I reckon the other candidates are not as popular as him.

In any case, the prediction market Polymarket appears to imply that it will remain to be Trump vs. Biden. If you bet on this not being Trump vs. Biden, you will win 733%.

https://polymarket.com/event/trump-and-biden-both-win-nomination?tid=1717386669450

ChiBitCTy

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Quote from: alani123 on June 01, 2024, 07:59:17 PM

I see now media are trying to use Trump's conviction in the supposed hush money trial against him, even going as far as to use a poll where people where asked if they approve the conviction or not against him politically. Well, people might approve of the conviction and still vote for him, has anyone thought of that? There's tons of reasons to dislike Biden (I like doing genocide) Joe and using political donations wrongly isn't worse than the things he has done. So even if the conviction was based on such evidence I don't think people voting will care. If anything, it'll probably give Trump more leverage.

"Well, people might approve of the conviction and still vote for him, has anyone thought of that?" I mean yeah anyone whos not a complete moron. I mean from a betting standpoint this whole thing is kind of fun, as it's about as bizarre as it gets. From a real world and real consequence standpoint, it's insane that anyone would fully and truly support either of these fools.

As an Independent it's really hard for me to understand how anyone could be so far left or so far right. Both parties such ass. But again, this is one crazy bet lol. Insert deep breath/disbelief emoji.

OcTradism

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Quote from: dansus021 on June 02, 2024, 09:46:31 PM

Hahhaha Kinda agree with all of that I might have gone to far hahaha and watch a lot of conspiracy theory tho all of that is personal opinion and maybe some youtube words haha. I'm not a US citizen, and yes the Trump has a lot of legal problem but I don't he is going to jail hahah after all he is a businessman and ex-president he might have a lot of connections.

Trump did not make all things right but he is human like all of us. Investigation, counts against him are mostly pure personal political attacks from the Banana Republic.

I see all 34 guilty counts on him days ago are big changes for him toward the President Election in November. It can change a lot in his race against Biden and I believe Biden team and his party actually made big mistakes by abuse the law to attack Trump. Think why did they do that?

If they are not fearful about probability that Trump will beat Biden in the Election, they would have not went ahead with such awkward attacks on Trump.

I think days ago, we witnessed a big twist for this Election.

dansus021

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Quote from: boltz on May 31, 2024, 02:10:57 PM

Quote from: dansus021 on May 31, 2024, 11:02:44 AM

2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! Trump wins again, and Biden loses I believe this way Im not from the United States but the US president election is crucial to the world since US has biggest economy right now so the any president can direct the economy, war and etc.

When biden get elected so many wars is happening and geopolitics is boiling hot and when trump takes the seat trump only hate china because he doesn't want china to be number one in my opinion

I think you went to far with your assumption but it's really hard to predict who will win especially with Trump having legal problems so even if he wins , he cannot pardon himself from jail as far as I know ( in case he goes to jail ).

I don't think the war from ukraine or what is currently going on in Israel and Gaza has something to do with Biden but as always USA has a very big influence across the world but saying that Biden is a war guy is kinda too much. I would say that Obama and Bush were true war presidents but things were so much simple back then and it's really hard to compare those times with the current times we are living.

The best option is to simply skip the USA election and just watch them because each party will say to the other one that elections are rigged...

Hahhaha Kinda agree with all of that I might have gone to far hahaha and watch a lot of conspiracy theory tho all of that is personal opinion and maybe some youtube words haha. I'm not a US citizen, and yes the Trump has a lot of legal problem but I don't he is going to jail hahah after all he is a businessman and ex-president he might have a lot of connections.

Wars perspective hmmm I don't know frenn but when trump in seat he seems talk with russia a lot and only hates china.

After all this thread for Presidential Election Bets! so feel free to watch or doing bets

Quote from: Hispo on May 31, 2024, 12:24:56 PM

There both good things and bad things about Biden and Trump, but if you analysis is that simple, I would personally advice you to read and sereach further into politics before putting money onto the table and bet for Trump

Agree with you it is oversimplified Grin

and I am aware of that tho. since I'm not a US Citizen Im might only do watch and see and take your advice

BlackBoss_

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Quote from: GxSTxV on June 02, 2024, 09:40:26 PM

The other hand, Trump is a good president when it comes to managing serious stuff, working only for his country knowing that he is already rich and not trying only to gain power.

I would bet on Trump even when the odds are low, but he has more chances against all other participants.

Trump lost the last President Election because of his approach and solution for public health during pandemic time even several months before that Election, Trump got massive advantage to win that Election.

Using the last President Election as an example, I want to say the importance of several months ahead before the Election in November this year. 5 more months and many things can happen which can change the support of USA. citizens for two President nominees. Trump or Biden can have advantage according to surveys at the moment but it does not mean they will continue to have it before and on the Election day.

It is too soon to predict anything about the Election and latest surveys show that two nominees are quite balance so votes received for nominees beyond two biggest parties in the country can decide the Election winner.

GxSTxV

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Even that Iam not an American to judge or have enough information about the presidential elections, though, I keep watching the television and News about America, but I think most population are taking Trump’s side this time after the terrible managing from the current and last elected president Joe Biden who didn’t offer much to America except his cold humor and transparent preseason in politics.
The other hand, Trump is a good president when it comes to managing serious stuff, working only for his country knowing that he is already rich and not trying only to gain power.

I would bet on Trump even when the odds are low, but he has more chances against all other participants.

Hispo

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Quote from: OgNasty on June 02, 2024, 09:09:03 PM

I’m still feeling good about my bet on the Donald. I should probably be betting against him as insurance though because if he loses our country is going to fall apart. I don’t think we’ve ever been at such a crossroads before. I’ll stick with Trump and stay optimistic. It’s going to be a wild six months ahead.

I would have waited at least until August if I were you to place those bets, but to each their own, I guess. I am not from the United States but traditionally there is what people there call the "October surprise",which usually can turn the scale in favor of one candidate and benefit the other one. Don't you think it would be wiser to place your bets after the October surprise of this year takes place? (Assuming there will be one, that is).
If the October surprise of this year is big enough to turn the tide against Biden, then I would definitely try to pocket a buck from Trumps expected victory. Otherwise, I will keep my money off the table.
I don't see the future and as close the election is, it becomes clearer to me who the likely winner could be for the next four years of administration of the United States.

I dont even understand the reasoning if people who betting on either Trump of Biden back in January or worse: in the last year. It sounds almost reckless or over-confidence on their pick..

OgNasty

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I’m still feeling good about my bet on the Donald. I should probably be betting against him as insurance though because if he loses our country is going to fall apart. I don’t think we’ve ever been at such a crossroads before. I’ll stick with Trump and stay optimistic. It’s going to be a wild six months ahead.

Hispo

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Quote from: alani123 on June 02, 2024, 07:15:43 PM

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It should not come as a surprise to you in the first place, though.
Don't you remember the reaction of the media and the establishment when Trump won the nomination of the Republican party ? He was all around the news, specially on CNN attacking all the flaw they could get from him,.from.his unfortunate comments on touching women and the way he even refered to his political companions within the Republican party, he even mocked the looking of the view of his opponents for the presidency. Now things have escalated and the media is focusing as much as possible in the fact he is a felon now (assuming he losses his appeal). At this point one can feel the desperation of the Democrat party and the establishment behind CNN.

Though, I think it is still too early to call him a winner just because the attention he his getting. As I had already mentioned, within the Republican party there is people who do not like Trump and they would have preferred Nikki Haley to continue as the nominee, she could not do it and she did not endorse Trump.
It is up to them to decide.

alani123

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's interesting how aligned against Trump all media in the US keep being.

It didn't work when they were supporting Hillary? Why would it work now? Are they insane or something? All this panic mode makes me think Trump is the wisest bet at this point. He really seems laser focused now and doesn't want to make any mistakes. Probably Biden will keep making mistakes and sliding. No election promises can actually save him if he keeps acting like that though. It just seems reckless and an abuse of power at this point.

livingfree

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Quote from: cabron on June 01, 2024, 02:06:11 PM

Quote from: livingfree on June 01, 2024, 01:57:57 PM

Quote from: FanEagle on May 31, 2024, 04:20:53 PM

Well, this is definitely scary and that is the problem. People who would like to vote for Trump, do not care that he is a criminal, and that is a very scary thing, this dude is a convicted felon and he is willing to go to distance and still have a big chance to be the president.

Looks like the sentiment is on him as people just want someone to replace the old man with dementia, as they say.

Quote from: FanEagle on May 31, 2024, 04:20:53 PM

We have never seen an American president that was a convicted felon, to be fair considering what most of them did, they should have been, but they were not and that is a quite dangerous thing to put, because it opens up the doors that "if you can get elected, then you can do anything, even commit crimes, it all depends if you can still get the votes". Trump is the root cause, and what happens after him will be very very dangerous because of the road that he started for every other criminal.

The time has changed and its sad and scary. Especially in elections, you'll really never know what the people would like to vote even it takes them to vote for someone who has past bad records.

I'm not from there but it seems that he's being liked due to his past administration and with that, they're forgetting those records that he's got whether he's a convicted one or not.

Possible to happen in the future that the standards are getting lower in almost every parts of the world.

Seem like that already. I think people already realized that during that time of Trump, things were much cheaper.
The verdict that Trump is a convict is backfiring already, just a day after he was sentenced guilty, his team gathered more than $50M for his campaign. And it seems like he is still running for the presidency. If he is going to be a president while inside a cell, there is nothing that he can do still for the country.

And about global politics, it's different from today and with his tagline, we all knew about it. I think there is an immunity for being a president and that's why he'll go out from there. I didn't know that he's inside a cell, isn't he?

Quote from: cabron on June 01, 2024, 02:06:11 PM

Do you guys think the debate will still happen?

That will happen in any platform or forum that they are going to be involved with.

There is no other candidates that are in the par of them so, this is the battle for just the two of them, Biden and Trump.

Hispo

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Quote from: alani123 on June 01, 2024, 07:59:17 PM

I see now media are trying to use Trump's conviction in the supposed hush money trial against him, even going as far as to use a poll where people where asked if they approve the conviction or not against him politically. Well, people might approve of the conviction and still vote for him, has anyone thought of that? There's tons of reasons to dislike Biden (I like doing genocide) Joe and using political donations wrongly isn't worse than the things he has done. So even if the conviction was based on such evidence I don't think people voting will care. If anything, it'll probably give Trump more leverage.

I have thought about it and mentioned it before, there are countries in other parts of the planet where their presidents where actually imprisoned in a former administration. It takes to look at N. Mandela in South Africa and Chavez in Venezuela. They were both in prison and still climbed their way up to power and the head of their states.
CNN is not the most reliable source of information, I am even very cautious when I see news for them (some of their news are at the same level or political propaganda than Fox, but in the opposite political spectrum), they will try to convince themselves and their viewers this conviction is the end of the political career of Donald Trump, they believe the American public would never cross the line and vote for a candidate who is a convicted felon. However they are underestimating the devotion of the MAGA faction.
This election will be decided by moderate republicans and on whether they decide to give Trump a pass on this conviction or not .

The odds in the casinos still point to Trump as having a very good chance to pocket a victory this next November. At this pace, I am afraid I'll end up betting a week before the election... When comes to make money, I am pretty much undecided yet.

FanEagle

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I do not see "trump" himself as the trouble, to be fair how bad could he make the country in four years? We have seen him rule it for four years, and aside from the judge appointments which takes up a lot of effort to change after him, we could easily say that nothing else major changed.

Things like roe v wade type of stuff are all judge appointments, and as long as you look at other stuff, he didn't do much. Hell if I have to congratulate him for one thing, which is that USA is a nation of war, and rarely stops, because if they stop, then why are they spending a trillion dollars on military, and military will not let you stop. However, what I see as issue is still the same, this opens up the doors for any criminal to be a president in the future, as long as they can get the votes, that's terrifying.

alani123

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I see now media are trying to use Trump's conviction in the supposed hush money trial against him, even going as far as to use a poll where people where asked if they approve the conviction or not against him politically. Well, people might approve of the conviction and still vote for him, has anyone thought of that? There's tons of reasons to dislike Biden (I like doing genocide) Joe and using political donations wrongly isn't worse than the things he has done. So even if the conviction was based on such evidence I don't think people voting will care. If anything, it'll probably give Trump more leverage.

cabron

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Quote from: livingfree on June 01, 2024, 01:57:57 PM

Quote from: FanEagle on May 31, 2024, 04:20:53 PM

Well, this is definitely scary and that is the problem. People who would like to vote for Trump, do not care that he is a criminal, and that is a very scary thing, this dude is a convicted felon and he is willing to go to distance and still have a big chance to be the president.

Looks like the sentiment is on him as people just want someone to replace the old man with dementia, as they say.

Quote from: FanEagle on May 31, 2024, 04:20:53 PM

We have never seen an American president that was a convicted felon, to be fair considering what most of them did, they should have been, but they were not and that is a quite dangerous thing to put, because it opens up the doors that "if you can get elected, then you can do anything, even commit crimes, it all depends if you can still get the votes". Trump is the root cause, and what happens after him will be very very dangerous because of the road that he started for every other criminal.

The time has changed and its sad and scary. Especially in elections, you'll really never know what the people would like to vote even it takes them to vote for someone who has past bad records.

I'm not from there but it seems that he's being liked due to his past administration and with that, they're forgetting those records that he's got whether he's a convicted one or not.

Possible to happen in the future that the standards are getting lower in almost every parts of the world.

Seem like that already. I think people already realized that during that time of Trump, things were much cheaper.
The verdict that Trump is a convict is backfiring already, just a day after he was sentenced guilty, his team gathered more than $50M for his campaign. And it seems like he is still running for the presidency. If he is going to be a president while inside a cell, there is nothing that he can do still for the country.

Do you guys think the debate will still happen?

livingfree

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Quote from: FanEagle on May 31, 2024, 04:20:53 PM

Well, this is definitely scary and that is the problem. People who would like to vote for Trump, do not care that he is a criminal, and that is a very scary thing, this dude is a convicted felon and he is willing to go to distance and still have a big chance to be the president.

Looks like the sentiment is on him as people just want someone to replace the old man with dementia, as they say.

Quote from: FanEagle on May 31, 2024, 04:20:53 PM

We have never seen an American president that was a convicted felon, to be fair considering what most of them did, they should have been, but they were not and that is a quite dangerous thing to put, because it opens up the doors that "if you can get elected, then you can do anything, even commit crimes, it all depends if you can still get the votes". Trump is the root cause, and what happens after him will be very very dangerous because of the road that he started for every other criminal.

The time has changed and its sad and scary. Especially in elections, you'll really never know what the people would like to vote even it takes them to vote for someone who has past bad records.

I'm not from there but it seems that he's being liked due to his past administration and with that, they're forgetting those records that he's got whether he's a convicted one or not.

Possible to happen in the future that the standards are getting lower in almost every parts of the world.

Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 6. (Read 2383 times)