The trick by Trump team is that they figured out how they could "game" the polls as well. Polymarket is useless shit stuff IMO, nobody cares about that except republicans, Kamala raised 100+ million more money, if it mattered so much, she would have spent a million dollars a day and would cover that difference in a single day because order books are so tiny, spending a million a day would take her to 70%+ by election day, so simple, people don't see how that math works. But the polls? Polls are amazing for Trump, because he realized, if he could convince a few poll companies, and show himself super ahead, then he can cover the difference.
There are like a dozen polls that shows Kamala 1% ahead on national polls, and then there is one that shows trump leading by 12 points, which balances it out. Silly to see that, we know Trump won't win by that much margin.
Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 6. (Read 15310 times)
National polls for popular vote are essentially tied, which means that Trump has a big lead in electoral college. Kamala needs an advantage of 2-3% in popular vote to have an even chance at the electoral college. Out of the 14 polls for popular vote released in the past few days, Trump is leading in 6, Kamala in 5 and there is a tie for 3 polls. Among the swing states, Kamala has lead only in Michigan and Wisconsin. In the most crucial swing state (Pennsylvania) she is trailing by less than one point.
You are both right and wrong at the same time. Kamala needs to be ahead at the popular vote obviously, but that matters on which states, otherwise the number is not known. I mean she can be ahead 2-3% and still lose, if she got all those votes from California and New York but lost battleground states.The important part is where the votes are coming, if she is getting wins at battleground states then yeah she can win with 2-3%, but if she is losing those swing states, then it doesn't matter if she is 5%+ ahead or not, the only thing that matters is winning those states.
We can all see that some of them are very close, and some of them are not, so that is why we can say things will not be simple and we are not going to know if she got the right votes or not until the last day.
There are more reports on typos on paper votes and errors of don't allow people to choose Trump
These are lies Trump made up because he is not capable of admitting he lost.
Most of what he says about any election he is involved with is 100% provably false. He literally just makes stuff up and half the country keeps falling for it.
What evidence do you have to prove this is Trump's trick and not the Democrats'?
This clip is going viral on many social media platforms. I also watched it a few hours ago and I am not in a hurry to confirm anything because I see this as a very normal thing. Because this is politics, they will stop at nothing to achieve their goals and the winner will be forgiven everything, politicians know that.
In this regard in another post you were talking about media manipulation. Which media? The only major network in the USA that supports Trump is Fox.
As far as I know, traditionally pro-Democrat media outlets like the Washington Post have also just announced that they will remain neutral in this year's election instead of declaring their support for Harris. The Washington Post has publicly endorsed Democratic candidates since 1976, but it has not done so this year.
Previously, the Los Angeles Times also declared neutrality in this year's election.
https://thehill.com/homenews/4955558-major-newspapers-endorsed-trump-harri/
These are lies Trump made up because he is not capable of admitting he lost.
This I think is the only thing we agree on at the moment.
He literally just makes stuff up and half the country keeps falling for it.
In this regard in another post you were talking about media manipulation. Which media? The only major network in the USA that supports Trump is Fox.
There are more reports on typos on paper votes and errors of don't allow people to choose Trump
These are lies Trump made up because he is not capable of admitting he lost.
Most of what he says about any election he is involved with is 100% provably false. He literally just makes stuff up and half the country keeps falling for it.
I haven’t trusted election polls for a long time because I think these polls are conducted to manipulate the public. Contrary to predictions, I don’t believe Trump has a significant lead. In my view, both candidates still have an equal chance. Since Biden stepped back, Harris has done a good job. Of course, she made some mistakes, but she she made up for them quickly. I’ll be considering the odds offered for Kamala on betting websites.
It depends on who is running the polls, however, it doesn't make sense if they are going to manipulate it, I mean there could be a lot of legitimate social media outlets that should be unbiased, and so far what we got is that it is a very close race.As compare to gambling sites, wherein Trump is ahead, but it doesn't mean it reflects the true numbers. Just a couple of days, gonna be very exciting and it's going to be a make or break. But looking at the polls, I think Trump will win, but again, it's close.
This is very much shocking for me because the popular vote ratings on Polymarket is 63% on Kamala and only 37% on Trump. I reckon this is the more correct ratings and very much similar to the elections on Gore vs. Bush, Obama vs. McCain or Hillary vs. Trump. The Democrats have always won or had more popular votes than the Republicans.
In any case, it appears the fomo on Trump is beginning to dump. He is presently falling to 61% from a top rating of 66%. This might continue until November 4 and this might become Trump 55% vs. Kamala on 45%.
I don't know what will happen with odds in last 5 days before the Election day. It is possible that gamblers will flip between Trump and Harris but did they know something of improvement on Harris campaign recent days?In any case, it appears the fomo on Trump is beginning to dump. He is presently falling to 61% from a top rating of 66%. This might continue until November 4 and this might become Trump 55% vs. Kamala on 45%.
There are more reports on typos on paper votes and errors of don't allow people to choose Trump, but automatically choose Harris on Voting machines in some swing states, and Trump /Vance appears at next pages of vote choices. Are these things reasons that people changed their minds that Harris will win this election?
There are statistics on early votes in swing states too but Harris did not lead on many states and in Pensylvania, she did not have a Blue Fire Wall from early vote with 1M votes. Republican Party Voters are doing better with early votes in this election, but it won't guarantee they will win Pensylvania.
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What is the latest news update on the media polls? I reckon it will be a lead for Kamala with a very small percentage.
What is the latest news update on the media polls? I reckon it will be a lead for Kamala with a very small percentage.
National polls for popular vote are essentially tied, which means that Trump has a big lead in electoral college. Kamala needs an advantage of 2-3% in popular vote to have an even chance at the electoral college. Out of the 14 polls for popular vote released in the past few days, Trump is leading in 6, Kamala in 5 and there is a tie for 3 polls. Among the swing states, Kamala has lead only in Michigan and Wisconsin. In the most crucial swing state (Pennsylvania) she is trailing by less than one point.
This is very much shocking for me because the popular vote ratings on Polymarket is 63% on Kamala and only 37% on Trump. I reckon this is the more correct ratings and very much similar to the elections on Gore vs. Bush, Obama vs. McCain or Hillary vs. Trump. The Democrats have always won or had more popular votes than the Republicans.
In any case, it appears the fomo on Trump is beginning to dump. He is presently falling to 61% from a top rating of 66%. This might continue until November 4 and this might become Trump 55% vs. Kamala on 45%.
Do you know why big podcasters on YouTube invite Trump? It's because he can talk about anything with truth. If Kamala is invited there, I don't think she could talk about anything without messing it up; she needs the script from the teleprompter.
People watch the Rogan Experience channel. They don't go watch wherever Kamala goes and discuss her being black. If right now she still can't say her plans other what Biden has, then this is not the type of leader that the US should have.
Well it is a fact, but I think that others do not accept this, there are many things that people do not accept, like the truth, like the action that all this generates controversy, not only in politics but in almost all areas people like to live in a world of hypocrisy, the more hypocritical they are the better, if you tell people what they want to hear that is what they think is right, if you say and expose the truth they will want to kill you, that is why things are this way, waging war on Trump wanting to put him in jail with false accusations, trying to kill him, I think that what is in plain sight does not need glasses.
I haven’t trusted election polls for a long time because I think these polls are conducted to manipulate the public.
The fact that herd mentality works everywhere...for as long as these polls are televised, shared on people's socials and the alike means peoples conscious are hijacked without knowing and they will side with whoever the polls claimed to have won...but between the two candidates I wouldn't want Trump to come back into office as his only using this to close the door that criminalized him , otherwise should he fail to be POTUS he knows what's coming...Kamala for the win.
I haven’t trusted election polls for a long time because I think these polls are conducted to manipulate the public. Contrary to predictions, I don’t believe Trump has a significant lead. In my view, both candidates still have an equal chance. Since Biden stepped back, Harris has done a good job. Of course, she made some mistakes, but she she made up for them quickly. I’ll be considering the odds offered for Kamala on betting websites.
At least here in India (which happens to be the largest democracy in the planet), we don't have the option either for mail-in voting or early voting. There is a national holiday on the day of voting and in case you can't get to the polling booth to cast your vote, then your chance is gone. And why we don't allow mail-in ballots? Exactly because in the past there were numerous instances of fraud performed through mail-in ballots. In low crime countries such as Japan and Korea it maybe a good idea to allow postal voting. But it has failed in most of the other countries.
In Europe, postal voting is widespread and there have never been accusations of massive fraud, so I am surprised. But in any case it does seem easier to manipulate than the presence vote.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/djt-stock-harris-trump-media-today-417b6004
Some interesting news today, Harris gains in polls, Trump's social media company falls a lot in price... Crazy world out there. Wisconsin and Michigan have become ever so slightly Democrat leaning as per latest polls. Trump would need to win either of these and/or Pennsylvania to win the electoral college. Now in the last minute it seems like a tough race.
At least here in India (which happens to be the largest democracy in the planet), we don't have the option either for mail-in voting or early voting. There is a national holiday on the day of voting and in case you can't get to the polling booth to cast your vote, then your chance is gone. And why we don't allow mail-in ballots? Exactly because in the past there were numerous instances of fraud performed through mail-in ballots. In low crime countries such as Japan and Korea it maybe a good idea to allow postal voting. But it has failed in most of the other countries.
In Europe, postal voting is widespread and there have never been accusations of massive fraud, so I am surprised. But in any case it does seem easier to manipulate than the presence vote.
What is the latest news update on the media polls? I reckon it will be a lead for Kamala with a very small percentage.
Literally everyone with a sane mind are saying it's a coin toss now.Yes, that's what it is. At first it seems that Kamala took the lead, but then Trump was able to recover and overtake her a bit. But the percentages given by the polls fall within the margin of error, so anything can happen.
I think that after Trump's rally held in Allentown, Pennsylvania at night of the last Sunday ( where the insult to Latinos was cheered publicly) his chances to win has disappeared. What's happened at that rally in fact supports the view of John Kelly (shared also by recent generals) who said that Trump is nothing more than fascist who (should be elected) intends to take the law into his own hands to wipe up differently-minded Americans.
Oh yes, it's good to see another person saying things as it is, and yes Trump is a fascist, he has never hidden that, only that people like to idolise idiocy simply because the person aligns with some of their beliefs which is where riding on weaknesses come in, he has never been genuine to me. Trump is riding on lies, division and people's weakness and as a businessman he knows how to do that and the gullibility of people makes them fall for it so fast. I wonder what this spoiled brat can do better if not causing more division and insensitive authoritarian acts and pronouncements that may cause damage to the US's democracy just because he is desperate. 
What is the latest news update on the media polls? I reckon it will be a lead for Kamala with a very small percentage.
Literally everyone with a sane mind are saying it's a coin toss now. Both are campaigning like crazy in different battleground states during this final round and only an October surprise could have swung more votes in either direction, but that clearly didn't happen this time.This is probably the most tightly contested election to date based on what I observed. Crazy stuff!
So polymarket is full of fake wash trading. No surprise there... 
I have been warning people for months to not take it seriously, but it seems mass media just aren't ready to listen and continuously cite polymarket, which is so easy to rig anyway.
Here's a thread I wrote months ago:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/you-should-probably-stay-away-from-polymarketcom-uma-5480541
Not only are the odds manipulated, but evaluators often take the sides of their friends (or even themselves, acting through sockpuppets) to earn more money. The thread I liked above is an obvious example of ignoring reality to favor a few bettors.
I have been warning people for months to not take it seriously, but it seems mass media just aren't ready to listen and continuously cite polymarket, which is so easy to rig anyway.
Here's a thread I wrote months ago:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/you-should-probably-stay-away-from-polymarketcom-uma-5480541
Not only are the odds manipulated, but evaluators often take the sides of their friends (or even themselves, acting through sockpuppets) to earn more money. The thread I liked above is an obvious example of ignoring reality to favor a few bettors.
National polls for popular vote are essentially tied, which means that Trump has a big lead in electoral college. Kamala needs an advantage of 2-3% in popular vote to have an even chance at the electoral college. Out of the 14 polls for popular vote released in the past few days, Trump is leading in 6, Kamala in 5 and there is a tie for 3 polls. Among the swing states, Kamala has lead only in Michigan and Wisconsin. In the most crucial swing state (Pennsylvania) she is trailing by less than one point.
I agree with you and I read news that if Trump wins Popular Votes but fails in Electoral Votes, he will be a first Republic Party Presidential Nominee fails in this way. I knew won 2016 Election in the same way against Hillary Clinton but I am not sure Hillary Clinton is a first Presidential nominee in history failed in this way.I read somewhere that Donald J. Trump has advantages in all swing states, big in some states and small in some battle field states, but on X and Polymarkets, he has chance to win all 7 swing states in this election.
It seems you are right, odds in Michigan just flips for Kamala Harris.
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What is the latest news update on the media polls? I reckon it will be a lead for Kamala with a very small percentage.
What is the latest news update on the media polls? I reckon it will be a lead for Kamala with a very small percentage.
National polls for popular vote are essentially tied, which means that Trump has a big lead in electoral college. Kamala needs an advantage of 2-3% in popular vote to have an even chance at the electoral college. Out of the 14 polls for popular vote released in the past few days, Trump is leading in 6, Kamala in 5 and there is a tie for 3 polls. Among the swing states, Kamala has lead only in Michigan and Wisconsin. In the most crucial swing state (Pennsylvania) she is trailing by less than one point.
It's hilarious watching some Trump supporters in this thread clearly looking nervous since even they realised that Harris might actually win this thing. Her recent DC Ellipse rally was something else.
I went all in on Kamala in several betting sites where I found great value for money odds and am expecting her to win and Trump whining yet again that he was cheated. Endgame time!
I went all in on Kamala in several betting sites where I found great value for money odds and am expecting her to win and Trump whining yet again that he was cheated. Endgame time!
I very much agree on your bet on Kamala on very good odds hehehehehe! This odds on Trump is a very big mistake caused by fomo bettors. I also agree that are presently very much nervous heheheh. However, my bet is on Trump when he was only 2.02 odds. I am shaking my head on why he is presently 1.45 and more than 60% in Polymarket. These bettor on those high odds will be very thankful if some of the swing states will be on Trump and give him 51% of the electoral votes.
What is the latest news update on the media polls? I reckon it will be a lead for Kamala with a very small percentage.
The real answer was that she was good with the top leads of democrat party, otherwise she wasn't what the democrat party members or voters wanted neither. This is the reason why she will lose if she loses this race as well.
This is exactly the reason why Hillary lost as well, she wasn't liked by many people, but superintendents or whatever they are called, overrode what people wanted and gave Hillary the candidacy, which they lost. There hasn't been an election in nearly 20 years where the democrat voters picked a candidate and then lost, only losses were from party officials picking someone.
This is exactly the reason why Hillary lost as well, she wasn't liked by many people, but superintendents or whatever they are called, overrode what people wanted and gave Hillary the candidacy, which they lost. There hasn't been an election in nearly 20 years where the democrat voters picked a candidate and then lost, only losses were from party officials picking someone.
Can you provide a source, a link for this?
https://www.votebeat.org/2024/08/02/party-presidential-candidate-primary-kamala-harris-nominee-official
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