Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 11. (Read 15349 times)

Thing with republicans has notoriously been, is that every accusation seems to be a confession, so one starts to wonder how many republicans are actually trying to vote illegally.

Just like their conspiracy theories about Soros paying for voters. They are now doing that themselves openly via Elon Musk's $1 million per-day giveaway.

But yeah, people seem to forget that this is about electoral votes, and not by gambling statistics.

Recent polls show Trump with a clear lead, but I don't think they reflect reality. Polls are like statistics and don't always give us the data that helps us reach the right conclusion. I think Trump is more likely to win the elections, but I don't think it will be that much of a difference... Also, from what I see here, Trump is trying to survive with his usual populist rhetoric, while Kamala is clinging to hatred of Trump...

Whoever wins the popular vote in each state gets all the electoral votes for that state.  (With I think 2 exceptions of states that have decided to split up their electoral votes).  That means that any state that leans more than a few % points one way or the other, results in an electoral vote advantage vs the popular vote for the party that loses the state.

Example:



In 2016 Clinton won the national popular vote with 66 million votes vs Trumps 63 million votes but still lost the election because Trump won more electoral votes.  

Part of the electoral college advantage Trump gained was from California where Clinton won with 8.8 million votes vs Trumps 4.5 million.  2 million of those votes became worthless - they could have decided to vote for Trump instead and Clinton would still have won 6.8 to 6.5 million.

So in the end, because of the electoral advantage Trump had in California, he needed to convince fewer people to vote for him to win the election.  (It goes both ways, just using one state as an example).



Imagine how much shit she would get if she had as much fake hair and make up as Trump though.

You can actually make your points without using demeaning on the candidate of the Democratic Party. Using such vulgar words you used to describe her I don't think is a good omen from you especially on a forum where people from different parts of the world are members.
I love Trump and supports him to win the US presidential polls but that doesn't mean I'll have to discredit Kamala by insulting him when I can be civil to convince electorates to vote for Trump. Trump is currently leading and I hope he succeeds at the end of the polls.

Part of the problem of lack of clear rules for the game and speculation with crypto-assets comes the the fact the big establishment within WashingtonDC continues to deny Bitcoin and cryptocurrency is general has come to stay in the long run ans it could be an actual competition against the traditional way to make business under the shadow and oversee of the United States dollar, as it had always been until a few years ago.
So the establishment decided a lack of clear rules and regulations would only incentivize that feeling of living in a economical "wild west" in which serious wall street investors would never dare to step in and move their cash into. That was the approach of both Trump and Biden, until Biden as well wanted to heavily tax miners in USA soil to outlaw mining de facto. In the most aggressive anti-Bitcoin measure out on the table by the democrat party.

Kamala is just trying to bring some of the people into her side and lot allowing Trump to get the campaign monopoly when comes to such a topic, as this is going to be a razon thing margin election, she does not have much on an option but try to make us (Bitcoin investors) happy as well to consider her a valid candidate.

I kinda somewhat agree because in the last few days it's normal for the polling to close in on the two candidates as more people become decided but now so many states are showing an EVEN match. It can't be that all these people are going for Trump in states Kamala had a lead in.

So I'm suspicious. All these polls that were pumped out in the last few days may very well have been over exaggerating the effect of Trump's rise. This had made Democrats rest easy and in the end they lost the 2016 election. So I'd say we should not rely on polls too much. But then again the betting markets seem even more biased even than that.

I think many trump fans are forgetting that all those swing state still allow mail-in voting since 2020 and it's most likely that most of the mail-in voters will be voting Democrat. Democrats have been calling for more people to vote this year and I'm pretty sure they'll have some success at it. I think increased turnout and mail-in ballots is something many pollsters fail to account for. If we see an even further increase of turnout surely Democrats are going to perform well in battleground states.

I still dont believe Trump is actually going to win it.  That poll just looks biased to me, they got obligation in law to be totally accurate.   Sure they cant put out fake data or in a deliberate way be biased but it seems these polls can be wildly off.

I'm going with 50/50 outcome still and if someone offers me those odds on Harris and I can place the bet I'm likely to go for it at this point.  Either party could take it still is my take till I can decide otherwise.   Not because I know Harris wins but purely on a good value vs prospects bet I would think thats fair tbh.  Nothing much will change at this point really.

Expelled from her party? What kind of dream are you guys on* She is the presidential candidate of the party, and she is liked enough to be literally nominee without even having nomination battle with other candidates, she was literally given the nomination for free by the party without ever needing to go against any other party member. That is the most ultimate ever party support you can ever see, nobody had any say in this but the party officials.

Normally when there is a candidacy, like how Biden did, you end up with states all over the nation voting for who should be the candidate, Kamala didn't need that and party just backed her. So believe me when I say this, Kamala has the backing of the party more than any other person in the party and she will be fine, nobody cares about her crypto stance as much as you think.

I honestly don't think this is going to go well for Kamla.

She should have simply stuck with her original promises. Crypto is a nothingburger for her voter base. She's hoping to get voters that don't care about her platform in the first place. People can see through hypocrisy like this. Big crypto investors and companies have been asking for clear regulation instead of lawsuits by the SEC. And let's not lie, Trump's administration failed at that as well. They let states be overly restrictive due to unclear regulation on the federal level and let the landscape be very uncertain from a state to state level.

Things for Crypto were more stable under Biden. The problem was lack of customer protection regulation in the first place. That's how we got FTX, Celsius etc. We don't need presidential support for crypto and I think Kamala fails to get that. We just need clear rules, clear enforcement and authorities that actually protect the consumer, not just the big guys in banks.

Only thing this actually reflects to, is that most of the gamblers believe that trump wins. People seem to think that this is some kind of objective poll and that the userbase would be representing everyone.

I also have thought that some whales, like elon could be playing just to manipulate the press. It would actually sound like something he would do. And by quick googling, some others agrees this theory.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-whale-trump-odds-manipulation

If we could have those odds somewhere I think anyone would bet on this market because it would mean that you can't lose money. You would get 220-100=$120 (that is to say $20 won) for a victory of Trump while betting $100 on him and on her, and you would get 210-100=$110 (ie $10 won) for a victory of Kamala Harris. So it would be what we call a sure bet actually.
Regarding Kamala I watched a bit his meeting yesterday on Twitch, and she's clearly not good as Trump for this exercise contrary to the debate IMO.

If it is just Trump 2.20 and Harris 2.10, I think it will be just something that people will just consider a few hundred votes away and either of them who will win is not something to suspect something went wrong to the transmission of votes. But the current odds seem obvious.

I'm not sure what you mean about the strongest economy. Economists are aware of what is happening, some of them turned into a prepper already building bunkers because they know what is coming.

Trump is winning thanks god. I was afraid of another fuck up but I guess Americans still had some common sense left in them. 2020 was not supposed to happen (some say the election was stolen too) and I guess this time they are going to make it right. Kabala's ratings drop dramatically after her FOX News interview. Such a clueless person. Way worse than Biden.

They say KabalA is younger than Trump and that a plus for her... It is actually the other way around. Kabala looked like a demented fool mumbling random shit during the Fox News interview while Trump is like a machine gun ready for anything anytime and that includes assassination attempts. Go Trump

This is the type of news that grinds my gears a lot. Kamala Harris never came out and said "oh I love bitcoin, I have so much bitcoin myself, love it lol" type of thing, she is a presidential candidate, she is not a moron, she talks within boundaries of the law. She has been saying since day 1, she thinks it's fine but within law and she is giving SEC power to control all the scams and illegality happening. This is what we have seen in four years so far with Biden too.

All those "with hunt" news about crypto, is all about how people did not follow the law, check everyone in the past four years that had any trouble with law regarding crypto, and you will see they did not follow the law correctly and that's why they got punishment, btu because they were crypto people and punished, the news in crypto world shared it as "crypto people are being hunted!!!!", what did you expect, Kamala and Biden to let these people break the law? Of course not.

She still has the same idea, you and I doing ok if we follow the law, and the guy who breaks the law gets caught and punished, this has been the last four years and if she wins then it will be next four years, there is nothing different.

Just because Trump talks about crypto a lot, doesn't mean Kamala is against it or started to be in favour of it, she had a stance about crypto for the past four years, and still has the same ideas, as long as you follow the law, crypto is fine.

Except its the strongest economy in the world.  Best economic recovery from convid in the world.  Inflation under control, unemployment low, gdp growth solid...the economy has exceeded expectations on all fronts with the only exception really being housing prices.  

I reckon that what you might be feeling might also be the effect of mainstream media manipulation and what we might be witnessing on the prediction markets and sportsbooks might be the effect of people betting on Trump because they know that there is a media manipulation being done. They are contrarians heheheh.

If this election is very close, I speculate that the team that can cheat more will be the victorious team. This might be Kamala's team because being the administration, they control much of the machinery.

Trump has to win, for the fate of America at this point lol. Things are bad, reallllly bad! Just like Trump said that Biden would take this country's economy to the shitter and practically turn us into a 3rd world country its insane what is happening. If only most people used their eyes and ears and senses to see how bad of a state America is in then they would come to their wits and vote Republican

I'm not sure if you're an American or not, but anyone being unbiased who follows closely, and coming from a true down the middle Independent here, it sure does not seem like the case.  I mean I will admit that it's going to be damn close, and all of the polls have them neck and neck, but there's absolutely no clear consensus what so ever. 

On top of that, Kamala has progressed as her campaign has gone on.  Joe Biden had no chance, Kamala does.. I'm starting to think I wont be this time around, it's just so damn close.

^ By the looks of it, it seems Trump is going to win. Obama didn't help but just upset the black community and Kamala's CNN interview just made her polls worse.

It's already interesting to go to Polymarket but I have not tried it yet, the betting platforms today seem to act like more of the traditional platform and Polymarket is the new one.

Donald Trump 1.68
Kamala Harris 2.35

Well let's admit it though, polling tries to get a representative sample while betting just takes anyone's money and balances out the odds.
People that bet aren't going care about representation. In fact, since there's a stark difference between the two parties in terms of educational background, I'd venture to guess that more Trump fans are actually betting than Democrats. Given that the election is so close by all other accounts, bettors will of course pick their favorite. Especially if there's a lack of other evidence to show one candidate having an edge.

If you go to polymarket now and take a screen shot  of their map, I'll bet you a couple of bucks they'll make bad predictions on at least a couple of states.

Actually, here I took the screenshot myself: