Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 14. (Read 2514 times)

I think I’m not supposed to get into this since I’m not a citizen over there but the truth is, this has been one of the political gambling that I’m really interested in and I’ve been wondering the possibility of a siting president  been dethroned easily except his tired of the office which I’m sure Biden isn’t tired and still wants to retain his position.

I’m really looking forward to seeing the outcome of the next election as to who wins the medal but I’m pretty sure in my country,  it is very difficult for a sitting president to be overthrown by an opposition party except in some rare cases.

Kennedy and Biden align very well apparently, he only disagrees on the anti vax stance and otherwise is definitely a democrat in policy.   I was surprised by that too because I thought he was the right wing choice with the Democrat party if that makes any sense but his actual political record reflects not a great break from Biden policies is the review I read hence it just comes down to speeches and talks.   Personal preference, sometimes people run as candidates to drum up support and gain a position within the administration, theres all levels of politics besides just being elected to the top job.

I understand why some prefer Kennedy but I dont take that as a serious option to consider, it might have been with more support but theres no appearance of that at this point.

Until not long ago, I would have assumed Kennedy would be a spoiler, but for the Trump campaign instead of the Biden campaign. Because many of the ideas Kennedy has align very well with the ideas of many people within the MAGA spectrum have: vaccination skepticism, passive racism (he literally told black people in a rally/event that racism against them would never end and that ks something they need to keep in mind). He even said one that the COVID was less aggressive when infecting Jewish and Black people and more dangerous when it infected white people. That is the kind of stuff you would only expect a MAGA-favourable candidate to say out loud.
Though, I get he was at first trying to pocket the democrat party nomination and then he saw the advantages of going third party/independent. This is a typical move some politicians do in critical presidential elections when it is all expected to be very close race between two candidates. He is aware he does not stand a chance against the establishment, but he knows the democrat party or the Republican party are so desperate for some points of advantage against each other, so he could profit off it and sell his candidacy to the highest bidder.

When a politician like him is not in the game for power, he is in the game for money.
He won't get power, but still can get money, that is his plan.

Yup, it's certain at this point that Kennedy himself and the PACs supporting him alike are 100% counting on taking votes away from Democrats.
It's a very odd subject though because Kenndy's agenda sounds a lot like a republican's play book being read outloud. The anti-vaccine narrative, calling people in Washington corrupt, rampant Zionism... So it's not like this sounds much of a valid alternative to the current options. However Republicans seem much more organized in their Vote so surely those paying for the huge ads for Kennedy must have done their research.

This is also showcased by the fact that Biden keeps getting heckled so much at his events, they've now started to outright deny entry to Muslim women wearing Head coverings in fear they might speak aloud in front of his speech in support of Palestine.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/31/biden-campaign-event-islamophobia-palestine-protest

Crazy for a party that is supposedly against racism. 

Yeah!!!

Even though an independent candidate has little chance of winning the election, he will certainly still greatly influence the outcome of this election... just look at the past and we will see that in the political history of the USA, there have already been some episodes where this happened.

The most recent one I remember was in 1992, when Ross Perot played a similar role in Bill Clinton's victory over George Bush. The third-way candidate didn't win a single delegate, but he got almost 19% of the votes, most of which were votes that would go to Bush.

Likewise, polls currently indicate that when Kennedy entered the race, Trump's lead rose to 5 points over Biden and the Republican leads in all 7 of the most disputed states. In other words, with Kennedy in play, Trump's chances of victory increase significantly.

Ok there's something very interesting happening here:


When put in competition head to head vs Trump, Biden is shown to have a lead in polls.
However, when put in polls as Biden vs. Trump. vs. R. F. Kennedy Jr., Trump has a notable lead against Biden!

Some republican mega donors are kinda unhinged in their support for R. F. Kennedy, but this is also making the race more interesting.
First of all, will Biden manage to counter the notions many people are developing right now to consider supporting Kennedy? He has months to prepare a strategy, but I take it things are gonna be tough for the Biden team.

Look for instance at how much the funding has been for an independent candidate. Even Kennedy himself thought the super-bowl ad for his campaign ran by a super PAC might have been a bit too much...


However now, thanks to the funding, there's an "army" of canvassers running around America and the Kennedy campaign's projection is that they will have ballot spots in 50 states! So the polls do actually make sense! Biden is very much threatened and this is not a drill.

Images via this vid

Something interesting to noticed by anyone willing to bet on this election cycle in the United States. Despite of Nikki Haley being out of the presidential race, still she managed to get up to 150k votes for her in the state of Florida.
Now, there are different interpretations of the meaning of hundreds of thousands of people who were willing to vote for someone they knew did not have a chance to win the primaries. The most direct and easiest interpretation is how an voters from Florida (those who voted for Haley), are not longer willing to give another chance to Donald Trump, even though they all are Republican.

If we followed these hints, perhaps indeed Biden have a chance to defeat Trump this year, regardless of the flaws and problems Biden seem to transmit towards the center right and far right leaning public of the country. I am still yet undecided on where to put my money on this one...

When it comes to economics maybe the Biden administration can argue that they averted a recession with their tactics and that indeed holds some merit, but the issue is the big picture here.
Corporations and banks being bailed out comes at the expense of someone, and that someone is the average worker.

Billions in corporate bailouts, billions in war funding abroad and yet not much if anything on promises about healthcare and student loans. That's not to say that Trump would have been better, but in that sense more and more people will feel disenfranchised from voting for Biden again after he failed them on some of his most basic promises. Did anyone forget how the entire Democratic party rallied behind him to oust the grassroots support Bernie was getting? Well these people feel wronged too. And it's going to be hard for Biden to make more promises if he failed to deliver these things in a 4 year term already.

Really, because the last time I checked. I swear I saw some news about the interest rates not interesting or actually going a little bit down, in the case of the United States at least.
To me, it would make sense the federal reserve under the presidency of Biden started to stabilize the interest rates, because of how inflation has deaccelerated lately. People are getting their money out their saving accounts and out the Treasury bonds, and pushing it all into stocks and other kinds of assets, like gold and cryptocurrency.
We could argue Biden administration has not been the greatest when comes to economics, but it is far from being the worst or even a bad one. In my opinion, the economical metrics do not lie.

Talking about the economic situation under both candidates makes no sense not because it favours one or the other but because it is bad in both of them. We have seen trump not put a stop to covid early on because he knew that his voters didn't want to be locked down and didn't want to wear masks and didn't want to get vaccinated, if he forced people to do that there would be a lot less dead people and yet he would lose and in the end he still lost and he still didn't do anything about it.

This is just the economical part and not the health part because he didn't do anything and that caused a lot of trouble economically for companies. Same goes for Biden in technical term, he didn't lowered the rates and right now nobody wants to grow, and just fine with interest earning.

It's true that the electoral system in the United States is such that doesn't mean someone with the absolute majority. Even Trump was elected in 2016 without a majority vote over Hillary Clinton who had more votes, but Donald Trump still won based on the electoral college system.

I think though Trump might have gotten a bit too comfortable because he didn't target the most important constituents after his first win. Especially he didn't do it as much as he should have to win again. Overall probably now though, Biden has disappointed too many people too. He didn't deliver on student loans, he didn't deliver on ending wars, he didn't deliver on better living standards for the working class... Nothing for the working man... Some people might end up voting for Trump out of spite.

Its impossible to count votes like that, the system is electoral college and not purely numbers like that.   This is the giant mess Press got wrong in 2016 in ignoring the complexities of the system and the division of votes in each region.   Its enough votes purely in a theoretical way but it its unlikely to work in any perfect case scenario to alter results just like that.   I would also argue alot of voters just stay away when they dont have their ideal candidate, think of all the people who wanted Bernie Sanders in a unique way quite a few wont find any reason to vote elsewhere just because a party orders them to.

I am not a political expert, but I have gotten the impression those people who chose to vote for Nikki instead Trump are more likely to stay at their homes rather than voting for Joe Biden. In the end, both Donald Trump and Nikki Haley were specially tough when they talked about the necessity of defeating Joe Biden this year in the presidential elections. It sounds rather difficult to me some of those voters will abandon the ideas of Defeating Joe Biden and go out to vote for him.
They could also end up voting in favor of some third party candidate instead of the usually Republican/Democrat political duopoly, though, but it is also unlikely.  If there is anything these lastest elections have shown to us, is how we are not supposed to trust on polls and predictions of the results, instead the most healthy thing to do is to wait for the results to come by their own.
Though, since we all are talking about betting on these elections, it is rather difficult not to draw conclusions from news and analysis like that one, one must resist the temptation however, for the sake of one's wager.

Well, at this level, the way things are happening, they're focusing on it like it's a media problem and this has really kept people guessing about what's going to happen, how they're going to be able to do things later on, so in view Of these things, I think that Trump wants to eliminate him whatever from the presidential race, I see that they are using what they have so that he cannot reach the presidency again, it is clear that this type of thing is a Warning , I don't know. how much force they exert in the Colleges, but when the Colleges cast their vote they are final and there is nothing to do there, the voters in the USA will always have the premise of choosing the candidate who offers them the most things so that they can fulfill them and the country will go in a better direction than the previous one.

I do not think Biden has as much power as Trump, and that is a very good story , because I have seen that most people are for Trump, but they feel an air of shame in saying that they support Trump, these things are the that make us be very critical when reviewing events, because in truth there is no definitive line on which candidate they want to support in the US.

A lot of people are forgetting that Trump has a lot of pending cases in the US. Plus the fact that not a lot of Republicans are still that impressed of him. Even so, the huge guys in the Senate and House of Representatives are still fully supportive of the yellow guy and will do everything to make sure that their pet gets into the scene and run for presidency. I'm not comfortable with Biden taking the second term, much more Trump leading the helm of this nation again, but if I were given the choice to choose between the two, I'd take Biden and hope that Kamala takes the lead should Biden 'gets sick' due to his age.


Ahh, 3 million people is NOT ENOUGH to sway the election. Remember Hillary Clinton running against this guy and winning the popular votes yet losing the electorals? That can still pretty much happen so I'm not really confident about Haley's supporters.

Lets wait and see if that really happens. Both Trump and Biden are doing efforts to gain some of Haley supporters but Haley always mentioned that she will not support Trump so it could have an outcome on the elections. Still a long way to go and a lot can still happen.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/03/05/can-congress-disqualify-trump-what-to-know-after-supreme-court-keeps-him-on-ballot/

Wake up babe, new democrat shenanigans just dropped. So it seems as though democrats might be plotting to vote for a disqualification for Donald Trump for him to not be able to run in the presidential race. It's interesting to see this take place and be discussed as a realistic scenario. However the house of representatives is going to remain a republican majority as it is now throughout the presidential elections so such a vote is unlikely to pass when it would need somewhere around a dozen of republican votes to also pass.

Any Republican going against Trump right now would be dooming his career as well as his party. Trumpers got it their way, and nevertrumpers seem to have no other way other than to sit this one out waiting in silence.
The realistic scenarios where trump is barred from the presidency would require majority votes from both senate and house, which could even then be struck down. Especially after the recent supreme court ruling. So the potential outcomes where we'll see Trump being barred from the presidency have very slim chances at this point.

Something interesting came up. While Haley didn't have a particularly good run in the primaries, it seems as though more of her supporters (who are registered republicans) will be interested to vote for Biden other than Trump.
If we conclude that these supporters would get away from the party line and vote for a democratic candidate over Trump, then if Biden is alive by then (lol) it kinda shows that people might be underestimating his chances to win.

I get that there are many people very passionate about Trump but even among Republican circles he's been very divisive. Quite a few people like Mike Pence too, or any of the other candidates that appeared in the primaries, and we saw that they had quite a few select words for Trump. So it'll be interesting to see if these displeased voters would be enough to sway the vote towards Biden.

Right, that is something which I always immediately comes to mind when I see that graph. During the full catastrophe of the COVID-19 Donald Trump was the president of the United States, and the state of the economy because of the quarantine was going to lead to a decrease in the positions available within the job market sonnwr or later. It was outside of the reach of power of the presidency of the country the amount of jobs which were supposed to be created that year.
Regardless of whether who was the president during that period of time, the result would have been the same: a decrease of jobs.
Though, I do not completely agree on the remarks about the economy had it in the hands on the hands of Biden or a democrat administration, I believe the situations would be pretty similar to what we see nowadays.

Actually, Democrats blame Trump on a bad handling on the state of emergency during the pandemic, because how he initially refused to the quarantine measures.

LOL.. nothing can be more deceptive than this graph. Trump was the one who put economy back on track, but then the COVID pandemic hit the United States and a lot of people lost their jobs. And that is the reason why net job creation is negative for him. Biden took over during the recovery phase and benefitted from that. I would still tell one thing. If Biden was the president of the United States when COVID struck, then the American economy would have been in a horrible state by now.