Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 14. (Read 15310 times)

It seems to me that such a large advantage of Trump on the Polymarket is quite strange. When the majority bets on the favorite, the "Dark horse" wins - in our case, it is Kamala. And the bets on Trump will lose. The winnings will certainly not be huge, but an almost x1.5 win is quite good, considering that the amounts of the bets there are clearly not small. However, time will tell. Maybe it won't work out that way at all.

It is slightly comical to me that the gambling markets are showing Trump has a 20 point lead while polls I’m seeing on mainstream media are showing Kamala has a slight edge. I guess we’ll see in a month if traditional media had some sort of insight or if they are totally full of shit. I know what I believe…

People do not like politicians because they are all liars. They run these campaigns during election years and make tons of promises just to get you to look at them and to get your vote, once in office they forget the promises they made and go on about business.

People need to realize that politicians find the general public mostly retarded. That's why you see all these propaganda commercials of each candidate trying to bash the other. They're playing on your emotions and not really discussing the real issues the country might have and how they can/will fix it.

You also need to look at the fact that even when a person takes the office of President, they don't get to start fixing everything. They have to go through the process and nearly everything takes a vote that can be shut down in a few ways.

I personally believe that our vote does not matter. Whomever is in the office is a liar and will do nothing but push their own agenda. For that reason I would vote Trump just for the entertainment factor. The media doesn't give that guy credit for anything as it is controlled by the Dems and their narrative is always to make Republicans look bad.

It immediately became obvious that Trump is being assisted by quite influential people who want to see him as president. I also do not rule out the possibility that he has sponsors from abroad. The good thing about crypto is that it is impossible to establish a specific beneficiary of the funds sent. How many different wallets can be used for such purposes? Can they all be tracked? No, it is impossible. This is the reason why Trump uses such a tool in his election campaign.

The reasoning makes all of the sense. It makes zero sense for you because you imply that the republicans can manipulate the prediction markets easily hehehehe. Have you also witnessed the changes on odds on all of the sportsbooks? Are you also implying that there are republicans around the world who are manipulating these odds also?

However, if you declare that the republicans are manipulating the odds on the all of the sportsbooks and also manipulate the ratings on all of the prediction markets then anyone can also declare that the democrats are manipulating all of the media polls.

I have yet another scenario, which will probably be 99% of the reason why people vote. Not many people in the world thinks politicians make your world better, we do not like politicians, hell most of us do not even love the people we vote for, but just think the one against who we vote for is even worse and that's why we vote. So maybe, people do not think Biden made the country better, in fact maybe they think he made it worse, but also they think Trump was even worse?

So they may vote for Kamala, thinking she will make the country worse than it is right now, but also voting for her because they think Trump would make it even worse than Kamala could. They are comparing how terrible things will get and voting based on that? I know this feels like a very sad and upsetting reality, but I honestly believe we are seeing this becoming our reality very quickly, this is why it doesn't really feel like it's a new or unique thing, people vote for bad people to avoid evil people.

Trump seems like a person who is just a horrible horrible human being, and his presidency wasn't awesome neither, but more importantly the way he is a terrible human being plays a big role in not voting for him, Kamala on the other hand, could be a worse president, but that doesn't matter to many, because she is not a horrible human being.

We cannot really say at all that political polls always shows bias result. Maybe we just don't like what we see since the candidate people supporting is not leading in that surveys. But if the updated poll result always go in favor to other one which currently Harris get the lead. I think there's facts on statistics they release, that's why it comes up like that. Other Trump supporters just can't accept the poll results. But good thing we could see a not far lead between this two candidate. So we can still assume that this is still 50-50 chance for both Trump and Harris to win.

Lets just see since final result will always comes up after election day. Let see who would take the Presidency this year.

By the way, this is actually possible. And when the crowd looks at the probabilities on these betting platforms at 60 to 40 and the radio hosts also talk about it, it spreads among everyone and confidence in Trump grows. But it can also affect in other ways, for example, Harris has 40% at the moment and many who were hesitant will decide to support her in order to close the gap. And some, seeing that Trump has 60%, will not want to go and vote for him, because they will think that he is already the winner, but in fact this will not be the case.

In general, your assumption is really interesting, I did not even think about it, but now I will keep it in mind. If this is true, no one will tell us.

Your reasoning makes zero sense here. Betting markets can obviously be manipulated to a great extent since it's all just money that is mainly controlled by whales from around the world just like crypto markets.

Republican supporters are clearly going all in on these betting platforms to provide Trump an advantage when the reality is that it's still 50-50 between them. Think!

Because he holds on the coming opportunity   like a grim death and think that that minority would weighs down the existing  balance at the election. Thus he vomits up from his mouth those words that caress the ear of crypto lovers. But the humor of his plight is that he thick as two short planks and don't understand the kernel of crypto ^{(which is freedom)} thus all his wording is blank, because, should  he be elected America will turn into autocratic state ^{(yeah, this is his stance - to make America autocratic)} similar to Russia or North Korea. ^{(BTW, he acknowledged that Putin and Kim are his best buddies)}.

Politicians want to get as many votes as possible. They are willing to use anything to campaign no matter how small the population is. A small amount of votes can be significant to the victory of a candidate. I also suspect that Trump is using the crypto platform to raise funds for his campaign. Major crypto businesses are donating towards his campaign.     

But the thing is that Trump knows that there Bitcoin has been a hot topic, and there are a lot of gray area's as far as US goes like in mining and then regulation. However, this is the perfect time for him to used it as a agenda for his re-election. And as we can see, even non-US residents are still divided whether it was a good idea to elect Trump base on this alone of if Bitcoin enthusiast are going to vote for him. Of course we don't know the numbers on how many US voters are into Bitcoin or crypto in general. But perhaps what Trump did here is to awaken those non-Bitcoin voters, and who knows, maybe he can sway them to vote for him because of his friendly stance. Or at least pro-crypto might have to talk about about it with their friends and persuade them to go with Trump at least.

If you think about it, the number of cryptos is not that big. Until now, I had a different position, but now I understand that it is wrong. Indeed, there is no point in politicians getting into such debates about crypto. It makes no sense, since the number of voters who are related to blockchain technology and its derivatives is not that big. Why then is Trump so diligently pedaling this topic? What good does it do him? Why such loud statements and concrete actions? Does he really think that this will help him in any way?

Agreed on your argument. But I was only creating a fair assessment on the reasons why the voters will vote on either Trump or Kamala.

In any case, there was someone who mentioned that it was funny for him if people consider Polymarket as a basis for the candidates' ratings on the election. I have thought about this and I presently consider his argument very uneducated because it can be argued that polls can have personal and political bias. Prediction markets do not have a bias because participants enter this to be right to win the money.

If my argument is correct and if this pump on Trump's ratings on Polymarket continue, it appears that the next president will be a Republican.

The difference between these two also means that a lot of people in the United States are still afraid to openly state that they are voting for Trump. This happened back in 2016, and again in 2020 as well. Opinion polls under-estimated the support level for Trump, because a lot of people hid their voting intention due to threats from the left-wing. I am not sure whether the scenario has changed or not. If it hasn't changed, then Trump will win 2024 POTUS elections by a landslide (because opinion polls are putting him in a position much better than what was there either in 2016 or 2020).

It should not trouble you at all, I believe that it is completely normal when comes to comparing people who answer a simple question in a survey and people who put their money where their mouth is. After taking a look at polymarket, it seems to me Trump is about to win this presidential race by a razor thin margin in November, I have always though betting markets are more reliable than those polls, even if the percentage of error is relatively low.

I am yet waiting for the last minute before I can place some major bet on the table, this is October and right before the election there is supposed to be a political surprise, which may change the direction of both the normal polls and the betting markets.

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Also, today I read there is a possible case of someone in California who was trying to kill Trump, but he was stopped before he could do anything. Kind of disturbing how many people are genuinely willing to ruin for life for the sake of killing a politician...

As far as betting goes they just opened up political bets on this election to all of USA not just the online crowd so much; just the sheer traffic of people who have an interest in 'the game' probably makes this subject the biggest bet of the year.

With 188,000 early votes already placed in Georgia, does this indicate the turnout for actual votes placed could make this election for involvement the most important ever.   Alot of modern elections in modern countries suffer a poor turn out and so reflect badly on democratic determination.  Whatever you think of these two candidates if the vote count is high it helps to certify the election as valid imo.

Also Trump is predicted to win in the last poll I read though not by much.

Well, statistics is not an exact science, far from it. Leaving aside what you put, which may have some electoral bias, I'll put a screenshot of yesterday from my casino:



That by giving those odds he considers Trump with an advantage. But I don't trust even that to predict the outcome of the election. Considering that everything is at stake in a few swing states I would say that either one can win.


Lol.

It really troubles me that the opinion polls and betting markets are predicting diametrically opposite outcomes for the POTUS elections next month. And all this, with just 20 more days to go for the actual start of the elections.

This is what Polymarket says (big advantage for Trump):


And here is the prediction from SienaResearch (Kamala 270, Trump 268):

Bullshit.

Not keeping a campaign promise, or changing your view on some issue does not make you the same kind of "crook" as taking a bunch of classified documents with you after losing an election and then hiding them from the government as a civilian, or inciting an insurrection, or defaming the woman you finger raped, or taking illegal donations from other countries and hiding them and then repaying the donation with policy as president, or running a scam charity, or running a scam university, or running a corporation found guilty in criminal court of felony fraud, or lying to state election officials about voter fraud to pressure them to "find you enough votes" to win.


Just because you can find a few instances of Kamala changing her view on not keeping campaign promises does not mean she is a crook like Trump.

Just because you can find examples of Kamala being dishonest does not mean she is a liar like Trump.