Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 18. (Read 10550 times)

I think you are giving the democrat party too much credit when comes to getting ready and having a long time plan to replace Biden with Harris when the Republican party was the least prepared for a movement like that. I think it happened organically: the realized Joe Biden was losing popularity and he had started to be viewed as weak and incompetent compared to Trump (regardless of the good job he has managed to do within the presidency).

Kamala Harris has a very good chance to win the election, even by a razor thin margin, still last time I was the odds on the casinos they were pretty much similar between both Kamala and Trump. It would take for any of them to commit some mistake during the incoming debate for the odds to change in a significant way...

The sad thing is that there isn't a big deal as the public makes it to be, there are about 2k people who get there illegally crossing the Mexican border, by comparison there are more people who legally came in with their visa and overstayed their visa instead, so Mexico border isn't as big of a deal as they make it out to be, and yet because they repeated it, they made it sound like it's something huge.

Having 2k people cross your border every single day is a bad thing, but this was the same at Trump period too, in fact it lowered by a significant margin during first two years of Bidens presidency, because he took over during covid time, and there was more serious checking during that time, so Biden had less immigrants overall total, just the fact that he had more during his last two years doesn't mean he had more overall.

This is why I dislike politics, they keep telling the same lie over and over again, make the numbers look huge, and convince even the smartest people to not do their own research.

There are thousands and thousands of people who enter illegally every single day, not just from Mexico and other ways, including overstaying visa, which is a serious issue that they need to take care of, but no side talks about that for some reason, it's a real threat.

It's not her change, but he tried to promise something that is wanted by the crowd, citizens with hope that she will win the Election in November. She was against the border wall idea for years, opened southern border for years, let's millions of illegal undocumented immigrants flew in the country.

Now, it's her time to change all her thinking, approach and these things to make border better?
It's too stupid to think she said all these because she saw it is right thing to do.

These illegal undocumented immigrants can help her gaining more illegal votes, that's why she let them flowing in massively.

I did not quote it because the reasons being presented in mainstream media are only speculations on why Trump wanted this bill to be killed. Also, the article's topic is on Kamala's change of policy on the southern border.

On your argument, does this also imply that if Trump will change his policy from prolife to proabortion, this will cause Kamala to become prolife? This will certainly cause vigorous headshaking heheheheheh.

Am expecting Harris to win too, but it's really, really tough to tell thanks to various reasons. Trump and his supporters are clearly feeling the heat now since the democrats are quickly gaining ground in more and more states.

His party was always prepared for Biden, but were left stunned and unprepared by Biden getting replaced with Harris which could have been the long-term plan of the Democrats all along.

But if there is maybe Trump will have some key points in the debate to be able to make Kamala do some answers that might be kind of trap that could harm Kamala, after all Trump is far superior in experience and he also holds lot of control that can be used as weapon to worsen Kamala image among the US public.
But the planning for the debate itself will be carried out on September 10 and indeed there are differences of opinion from each team between Trump and Kamala, actually if this is successful then we can see fairly fierce debate based on data from each candidate.
For now Kamala seems to be starting to get an advantage from several parties, but in the upcoming election no one knows what it will be like because some of the support that has emerged for one of the candidates does not necessarily guarantee victory.

I have suspicions that this debate can develop into a verbal squabble, because Trump likes to get his opponent going, perhaps he has such a professional habit since his business days. It is really difficult for him to oppose, but it is easy to do if you do not take everything too seriously, and operate only with facts. I think Donald will do everything to piss off Harris, and not say really important things. In addition, he will say what the crowd wants to hear, and for politicians this is the main task, to speak convincingly, in general it will be very interesting to watch this.

As for my opinion about the winner, I think that Harris will win with a minimal advantage, but of course I am not sure, because forecasts are very often wrong and I would advise not to listen to anyone, even me, but only rely on your own opinion.

Maybe they try to avoid those schedule set since they see that Harris is not ready yet to exchange of words against Trump on the date set. But Trump camps is still optimistic that this debate will happen and they have other schedule date set and it will happen in June.

Its provably so good to see those two camps will defend each other towards the topic raise in that debate and people provably could see on which of those two candidates is worth for their votes if they hear a good word coming from those two politicians.

I heard during the 2022 midterm elections that in Texas the cities are becoming progressively more Democratic, while the rural areas remain Republican. I've looked it up and there seems to be something to that.

Why Democratic Gains In Texas’s Big Metro Areas Could Outweigh Republican Success In South Texas

It also seems that there would be, paradoxically, people who flee states like California because of high taxes, insecurity and other issues and upon arriving in Texas still vote Democrat.

Why don't you quote the full thing?


So Trump wanted to kill a bipartisan bill for border control because without it he would have no ammunition for the election? Like that guy who wants to stop the firetruck so his house can burn down so he can claim insurance? 
I would bet any time that if Biden would sign a bill banning abortion the next day you're going to see Trump with a t-shirt with my body my choice!

Anyhow we finally have some odds on state-level


I don't get why bookies offer Texas, I understand offering the option of betting on Obama cause that is for sure a loss, but giving the chance on betting on Rep win in Texas even at 1.07? No way Texas will flip!

It is Maga Trump. I speculate that this might not pump for another month and begin a new pump on October. I cannot be certain, however. But it is a similar argument, buying this token cheaply might give more profit than betting on 50-50 in Polymarket.

Also, there is also a new Harris token issued hheheeh. This might pump also on October.

In any case, it appears Kamala has also made a declaration that the southern border is very much needed in America hehehe. Is this declaration true or is this a tactic to gather more voters from Trump?



If she's elected president, Kamala Harris pledges to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on the wall along the southern border — a project she once opposed and called "un-American" during the Trump administration.

Source https://www.axios.com/2024/08/27/kamala-harris-flip-flops-border-wall

RFK will concede eventually will have to pass on those who would like to vote for him to Trump if that's what he wants.

That's a good strategy if they want to put Harris to be at the top. Because if there will be debates, Trump would likely to roast her with his answers. The date of election is coming and we've got 2 months left for this and a couple of days.

Well but it could be like that, although Trump stated that Kamala does not want to debate with him because she is not smart enough to Measure herself against him, so things are sometimes a little Strange , I think in this case Kamala wants to divert attention, and not go to confrontation, a debt has to be on equal terms, for me things should be done in the context of normal participation, with no Kind of Advantage for anyone , that they defend themselves as they Should and according to that , then people see who can be better prepared, but personally for me Trump wins.

Interestingly enough, I believe Trump does not even want the debate between him and Kamala to ever happen, because it would be likely a disaster to him being confronted by someone who is more mentally agile and can actually fact check him live on national Television, unlike Joe Biden.
At this point I would be expecting Trump do make any excuse possible for him not to show up at the debate and continue the presidential campaign by addressing Kamala from far away, calling her names and belittle her, not know that each time he does that, he is pushing female voters away and making the race easier for Harris.
Venen Newsmax and Fox "News" have called out Trump's language on Harris and suggested him to tone down the name-calling.
Anyways, if a debate indeed takes place,.I will undoubtly take note at the change of the odds and prepare my budget to bet in favor of Kamala or Trump.

Kamala is leading in some of the polls and she feels that if she wants to keep the momentum ongoing, then she need to stay away from potential blunders. Trump has excellent communication skills and he will destroy Kamala if he is being given an even platform or a level playing field. And Kamala knows this. She will agree to debate Trump under extremely biased terms and conditions and this won't be acceptable for Trump. And then the mainstream media will accuse Trump of running away from the debate.

You can already tell they conspire to put Harris as the President as right now she even took over that seat already. RFK will likely be making campaigns also if he wants Trump to win.

I read that there will be no debate between the two Kamal vs Trump debate will never happen. This should have been a good platform for Trump to advance in the race. It would have been a big point if Trump pointed out that Kamala is the "border czar".

Which one?
I doubt it's the first one that coinmarketcap says:

pretty rare to see  100% drop in value!

Maga is down 81%
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/maga/

And his other project is god knows what cause the only thing he does is change the name, Defiant Ones, World Liberty,  I don't even know what's the current name. The only thing that is certain is that he has forgotten everything about Bitcoin. I can't wait for the launch of that stuff, I'm 1001% sure he will say something about creating a better coin than anything, something better than Bitcoin to make crypto great again!


There are countries with just as huge a population as the US, far more diverse, spread over more different territories, with less national cohesion and they can still do it. If Indonesia with its thousands of islands, multiple autonomous regions, hundreds of ethnicities can then it would be no problem for the US either.


It's state law, once you've been granted ballot access you will not be removed from it, unless you die!
https://casetext.com/statute/wisconsin-statutes/elections/chapter-8-nominations-primaries-elections/section-835-vacancies-after-nomination


Surprisingly everyone knew that for a century but RFK!

Something crazy is happening. After RFK endorsing Trump, he had also said he would remove his name from ballots in states where the election would be a tossup so he could help Trump.

The issue at hand is that largely many election commissions are controlled by Democrat cronies, so now that RFK developed a strategy to help Trump, they will do anything they can to block him. Michigan and Wisconsin election commissions have already blocked RFK's demand to remove his name from the ballot. How fucking crazy is that!? A man can't even remove his name from the ballots at his own volition, they would only do it if it served Biden's interests I guess. I fail to see how that can be a thing in a functioning democracy.

Another additional argument on this speculation that Mark Zuckerburg might have some certainty that Trump might win the election is he is the owner of a big social media platform. He might be analysing the engagement behaviors of the people in Facebook and the company might be have discovered a revelation that there is more positive engagement on Trump than there is for Kamala Harris hehehe. I will certainly be not shocked if this is true.


On betting, there is a Trumpcoin that might be a better bet because it can give a better prize after the pump than 50% in Polymarket hehehehehe.

Honestly, one of the reasons I think Trump managed to win the presidency back in 2016, was because how his political propaganda and future management of government was translated to memes and jokes which were all around the internet and appealed very young voters. I recall there was this meme about voting for Trump because he was going to be anime real, and algo having anime characters wearing the MAGA hat.


Source: https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Donald-Meme_MRZ5710-Mobile-Plastic-iPhone/dp/B08CHKQC6Q

So even if Trump could not easily relate to young voter by his own, there was people within his campaign who was intelligent enough to start spread those kinds of memes all over the internet and appealed to anime fans and young people who liked anime. It was obvious Trump was not capable of making anime real, but for them it was the first contact they had to Trump's policies and to him as a politician.

People is not supposed to underestimate the effectiveness of those kinds of campaigns which in the end, helped Trump to win over Hillary. If Kamalas team was clever enough, they would have already pulled something similar off for them to appeal the youngest voters, but with no cringe.