Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 32. (Read 15353 times)

To think that there are republicans who actually think that PETS are being stolen and eaten is getting to a point where it's not funny anymore and it's actually a seriously considered mental illness. But, it's on brand with republican views, they probably fear eating at pizza joints anymore due to fear of being considered a felon now lol.

All jokes aside, I think it's clear that we are not going to see any republican care about trump making wild claims, they will fit the shoe somehow, as long as their guy wins, they don't care who their guy is, that's how you build a republican party.

Democrats are not like that, you can see plenty of democrats disliking both Biden and kamala, they are only voting because they hate trump, unlike republicans who make trump look like he is the second coming of Jesus. That difference is the reason why I would prefer democrats to rule that nation. To be fair, I am not American, so why do I even care is beyond me, I still care, I just don't know the real reason why, I have no benefit or loss in either of them winning.

If Trump wins, nothing in my life would change, maybe there would be some better jokes to laugh at, if Kamala wins nothing changes, it would still be same me, same life. How do I know? I lived 8 years of Obama, 4 years of Trump and 4 years of Biden, and nothing in my life changed, not even a single thing.

Maybe I'm seeing this in a wrong way, but I think there are more than only two ways of doing this. So, you can't really just "do the opposite to what you see" as there are more than only two possible things to do.

I think in terms of the debate, many people will just interpret it to fit whatever they previously had in their minds, so I don't think it added any new information at all.

People will just look at those things almost like just pure entertainment. It is not like enacting a new bill or law, etc, which actually has some consequences. A debate in the end is just a show.

If bookmakers are created to help majority of gamblers to win, you can trust their odds and figures now.

But think about it, if bookmakers are not created to help majority of gamblers to win, if you do opposite to what you see now, you can become the minority won gamblers.

First, it is about behavior of bookmakers and second I can say, if you watch the full debate, you can see Kamala Harris only says like a bot with what we all knew about her and through the 1-hour debate, she did not convey anything new information to US. citizens on what she will do if she gets elected in November. I mean she failed to show off her plans, even concept of her plans were not sneak peeked through the important debate. That's reason why she wanted to avoid a debate directly with Trump but under pressure, she had to do it and failed.

It's interesting to see the aftermath of Trump performing the way he did in the debate.

In terms of the odds, Kamala is the new favorite in every bookie. Trump is now in denial saying people think he won the debate and polls show that, but clearly this is a false statement.
Here's an interesting infographic about the debate:

Source: https://redd.it/1ff3qfr

Trump had every last word in the debate, yet managed to bring up bad arguments nearly every time.

On a positive note from Trump, in the last few days he performs well in the battleground state of Georgia:


This all goes to show that we're still in for a very tight race and neither team should get comfortable.

Instead of the fear and shame, it'd be better if either party was ready to point out we should never let people starve like that so that it could ever become a problem.    I heard neither candidate make that super basic point and promise to provide basic humanity to another human hence my impression politics is ego and money to most is not ever far wrong.

They are saying Harris won but it wasnt by a large amount imo, its not like a resounding victory like it possibly could have been for her.   Trump wont do another debate and I got zero surprise on that, not sure he really wanted to do this one.  Biden was an easy target for him I guess and he probably is cursing that lost advantage every day.   The best way to win is to let your opponent lose it in their own way, Harris was throwing down those virtual banana skins in that particular way as if was Mario Kart and Trump ran into every one of them.    

Does it all matter I'm really not sure it does, it has to be an obvious point to really gain consensus, alter votes and turn the tide.  Thats why both sides focus on swing states where its the rarity that it can go either way, both candidates seemed kinda empty in their promises to me.   Situation yet to develop, I'll side with a Harris win for the moment unless I can see a change progress.

To be honest, of an ilegal inmigrants entered the home of a person in the United States and whether this was a problem how widespread as the media wants us to believe it is, at this point there would be at least a handful of undocumented immigrant shot dead or wounded by house onwers who happened to be pro-second amendment and pro stand-your-land policies.
So far, I have not seen news (at least in the mainstream media) talking about inmigrants getting shot, so I would not give some credit to most of the reports of such incidents.
Though, one cannot help but to think how Trump looked like in front of the most of the people in the United States, while he was ranting about people eating pets and how his crowd sizes are the huge and Kamala having to alledgedly pay people to show up to her rallies. He sounded kind of like a madman, while Harris kept her cool most of the time.

Does not matter at all whether one likes Trump more or less than Kamala Harris, the fact is he took her baits and he lost his composure in the end.
Adding to the fact she had a fairly good debate from the beginning, it seems the superstar Taylor Swift has officially endorsed Kamala. Will have any effect on the result? Probably not, but since we are talking about a razor thin margin, each factor can make a difference.

The road to becoming a fascist leader:

Create an environment of "us" vs "them" rooted in ultra-nationalism.  Don't define "them" too narrowly, it's anyone who gets in your way.

Dehumanize political opponents and marginalized groups like immigrants or gays or anyone that's different by painting them as a direct threat to the country and your followers families.  Fill the people that like you with hatred for those who don't.  

Once your loyal followers are filled with hatred and fear for "them", convince them that you alone can save them and protect them.

Get good at lying.  Discredit any source of information that isn't absolutely loyal making you the default and single source of truth - this will make the conspiracy theories and eventually your "big lie" go down easy later on.

Defeat is only possible if "they" cheated.  You are either victorious or your victory was stolen from your followers.   Never concede.  Never apologize.  Always declare victory.

Deal with any political threat with maximum aggression.  Make examples of those who question you from within or from outside.  Implicitly encourage those who are loyal to attack your enemies, and their families mentally with harassment or physically with violence.  Convince people that these are patriotic actions and make the easiest path forward for non believers that want to keep their comfortable life to keep their mouth shut.

Make sure that you as an individual are what your followers are fighting for rather than something larger like religion or the country (The ultra nationalist rhetoric is still required because it sounds more acceptable to chant the name of your country than your name, and religion is fine as long as they think that god chose you).

Fascism is also entirely bad, for me communism, fascism and fanaticism in politics are what corrupts every political process, I really don't see a USA that will be affected by communism, I don't think Trump will go in a fascist direction, the people of the USA are very strong and just as they will not allow communism to be implemented, they will not allow fascism to be promoted.

Although from personal experience every communist dresses like a sheep and deceives the masses by telling them that they are an important part and they give them "power", but it is all a farce, I was really alarmed when Harris said that X should be banned, that is when I saw that she is not in favor of the freedoms that Americans still enjoy.

The reason for debates is not to convince other party members to join your party. No person who had Trump on their mind would vote for Kamala after the debate and no person who had Kamala on their mind would vote for Trump after the debate. The reason for debates to make sure your voters go out to vote, and that's the most important part, or worst case scenario you will do badly and your voters won't go out to vote.

The idea for democrats would be that Kamala would be so good and Trump would be so bad that Trump voters won't go out to vote and Kamala voters would go out to vote vice versa for other side. It's clear that Kamala won the debate, even conservatives says so, you can check twitter and reddit and anywhere else you want, but it's also important to remember that it's still too close.

I think even more than just the debate, Taylor Swift endorsing Kamala means she can get a ton of woman to register and vote, which will work wonders for Kamala without a doubt.

Pets! Trump claimed illegal immigrants are entireing houses and yards and stealing dogs and cats for food!
Do you know how many Americans have been convicted of eating pets, real Americans?
Because a guy like Armin Meiwes existed does this mean Germans are cannibals?

Also, some of you really miss the point, do you realize the situation of the people who have to resort to such things? Doesn't sound to me like guys drainign the federal budget with their expenses 


The guy could have Archimedes on his staff and he would still claim he could walk on water if he's fast enough or he eats a bag of doritos.

It all comes down to the human size factor. All of these polls, surveys, betting markets etc only focus on a small sample size which is why they are meant for reference only. If the sample size was big, this would be a completely different conversation.

Also, there are many people out there who completely depend on these statistics like fools thinking they are 100% accurate. This is why many of them were stunned when Clinton lost against Trump.

Thanks, I had not seen the interview.

With a lot of luck and in quite some time, the total market cap will be $35T, which would be almost $2M per bitcoin and to that we would have to deduct inflation. That he says that with a few bitcoins and “writing a check” he could wipe out the debt has to make anyone who thinks this guy is the great hope for bitcoin think twice.

It's worse than I expected. I thought that since he has people around him who are bitcoin enthusiasts, not just Vance and Kennedy, but also other Republicans like Ted Cruz or Cynthia Lummis he would have ended up understanding the basics of it but he doesn't and I think it means he doesn't care about it any more than I expected.

We can never know if it was because of Taylor Swift or if it was because of the debate, but we also can't see the results of neither the debate nor Taylor swift just yet on polls. Remember, it happened just yesterday, so it's clear that we haven't had polls showing the importance of that. You would have to have a company keep calling people every minute, by thousands, just to get the result, and you can't do that right that moment.

We need to remember that we are going to see this in a week or so, then we will have the idea who won the debate and how much Taylor swift helped them. If they can do fine then we are going to end up with a good result, we should probably wait and see what these poll companies will share.

Lol... I was just seeing this and can't stop laughing in Chinese. Are you for real? You can't be, bro. Which president endorsed Harris that was removed? I guess it's not Biden.

Perhaps you wanted to say that Biden stepped down from the presidential race? These are two different things, he's still the US president and it's his decision to step down no matter the pressure. But I still wonder about what you said regarding the president who was impeached and endorsed Harris.

I mentioned Biden and Obama in the last post as those who endorsed Harris but it can't be Obama you are referring to because he was never impeached, he was a two-term US president who finished his tenure well. It can't possibly be Joe Biden either.

Well, the debate took place. This only reinforced my assumption that Kamala is most likely to win the election. Of course, we can talk about some kind of bias against Trump, or that the media allow some preferences to Kamala - all this is not a matter of betting. A combination of factors is important for a bet, not their legal or ethical side. Of course, Kamala's lead in the Polymarket is small, but even in the elections, the winner is likely to win due to a meager superiority.

You are correct on surveys and polls, however on prediction markets, you are mistaken, I reckon. The participants in the prediction markets are betting real money and they have their desire to win from this bet. If to choose between the polls or the prediction market as a guide on how this election might conclude, it might be better to choose the percentages of the prediction markets.

On depending on them completely, who is doing this? They are only guidance on where presently are each of these candidates on their chance of victory heheheeh.

Based on those quotes I was just thinking how it is possible to have such a debate in the US.

It seems like the US has declined their quality of politicians over time. I remember watching older debates from more than a decade ago, and it's just night and day compared to these days.

For example, Kennedy's speech about going to the moon was extraordinary. It would be great if politicians these days all around the world talked a bit more like that. It's rare to hear an inspirational speech these days, it's just insults to the others.

Trump had the chance in this debate to show some class and a better self than how the media portray him but he fumbled in quite a few instances.

Saying Democratic state governors want to allow mother's to execute their babies post birth... Saying immigrants are eating pets... Which was based on a debunked social media post. I mean dude even if that's true the solution is to give the poor immigrants some food, not to demonize them for being hungry.

And then there was Trump saying he ended the nordstream 2? So trump is singlehandedly responsible for Europe's energy crisis? Is that supposed to be a good thing? Honestly Trump delivered very few talking points that would readonate with someone outside of his hard base.

I was right the debate would be full of attacks but I didn't expect it as bad. Trump got too comfortable with Biden it seems. Now as expected Kamala leads the odds.

The debate between Harris and Trump was quite a success and I could noticed that Harris was quite insulting and always wany tio cover her incompetence as the vice president putting the blame on the president for anything that goes wrong.  If eventually Harris wins this election, I think we should prepare for anything that will happens because things might just become quite worse that what we are seeing. Even the current war between the Ukraine and Russia might even escalate more. What we want is peace in the world just like Trump has explained for everyone to leave their lives without pondering on world war 3. The United States citizens need a competent president that would abolish the doom day.

It is a cultural thing in the United States for people to be afraid of communism, it is nothing new, it goes back to the cold war era when the Soviet Union was around and was also a superpower competing against the United States in fields like technology, education and military advancements. From the beginning, there was a lot of stigma associated with socialism and communism, because those are political ideas which go directly against what supposedly makes the United States one of the best countries on the World.
Actually, I have some friends in the USA who tell me people there (mostly republicans) feel anything which sounds too "good" for the general population, like universal healthcare or welfare is some kind of socialist thing they are supposed to avoid from implementing.

In reality, communism and socialism in the USA is almost impossible to happen, because how the government is structured, in such a way the power is not held by a single person, there will be always strong opposition to centralization of power there and hence, social democrats have a long and uphill road to even get an actual socialist in the presidency.