I didn't do any further calculations, but I started the difficulty at 15000 instead of the current 8900 the calculator gave.
20% hop? Wow, but if KNC and the others deliver we are talking ASIC's and not GPU's. Guess that is believable.
What are some of the numbers you have run. Would be appreciated. Say for a late July delivery.
I don't have anything with me (it's at work), just going off the top of my head. When I examined KNC's batch 1 gear, I remember that it was going to be 2PH minimum, with potentially another 1PH depending on how overclocking and KNC's own datacenters play out. They plan on more batches after that, and there's been rumor of a multi-aglo machine.
Did I miss a KNC announcement about beginning tape-out or do you have other sources ?
Buried in one of the large KNC threads on here is where I saw the announcement that they started tapeout about 40 days ago or so. Their batch 1 delivery projects were what, August? Q2/Q3 is what they promised, with Q2 being most likely, Q3 being latest. They stopped development on the chip 2 months ago. So this rough timeframe ballparking adds up, they should have chips in hand no later than June. (my projection based on what I know and how they've performed before) Historically it takes them 3 weeks for final tuning and have stuff going into crates for UPS pickup.
I don't hold onto links, I just keep some rough notes. It's one of the many reasons Alpha needs to step up to the plate, the big boys are catching up fast. I also talk with some folks who are closer to KNC.
20% for LTC is a lot. The difficulty for LTC changes more often than that of BTC, so generally the changes are smaller.
I am using 3% as low estimate for the short term, and 10% as a high estimate.
Yes, it is a lot, but keep in mind how much hash is coming from 4 distributors right now, with the ones currently shipping about to release another batch, and with Alpha Tec "supposedly" shipping in July, and with KNC.
Do the math on KNC's gear. Minimum of 300MH times 1500 units, and then 150MH times 1500 units. And then if you want to get fruity, add 20% to those numbers for overclock hashing. And KNC will be mining LTC as well, so who knows how much hash they'll be bringing on for themselves.
It's significant, hence my rough sketch of a possible jump once everything comes online. It may not be 20%, but it's not going to just be a few percent. Remember, KNC is the sole reason behind BTC's huge difficulty hops starting back in November. Their goal is to demolish scrypt hash and difficulty, and something tells me their gen2 scrypt gear will be near the GH range.