Would it be possible to get a new shipping estimate from an official BFL employee?
I didn't find up to date information on the BFL website.
Asking on the official BFL forums, I only got trolled & ridiculed, no valuable information was given to me.
Shipping always starts the last half of whatever the current month is...
"Bitforce SC (ASIC) products are in final stage development with initial shipping scheduled for the last half of January 2013."
"Bitforce SC (ASIC) products are in final stage development with initial shipping scheduled for the last half of February 2013."
"Bitforce SC (ASIC) products are in final stage development with initial shipping scheduled for the last half of March 2013."
"Bitforce SC (ASIC) products are in final stage development with initial shipping scheduled for the last half of April 2013."
Also from the horses FAQ mouth.. Any orders made in April 2013 + 4-6 Months for delivery!
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showwiki.php?title=FAQ:Real+Shipping+Estimate&do=article#post22854FAQ:Real Shipping Estimate
New discussion comments. Go to first unread.
Question:
When will BFL actually start shipping to customers?
Answer:
BFL is expected to begin sending units out by no later than April 30th. Of course this is subject to change if BFL runs into any issues.
Question:
How long before I receive my units?
Answer:
Could be 4-6 months if you ordered in early April!
BFL has over 33,000 order numbers right now. Some maybe fake or refunded. ie. cancelled. Say 30%. That still leaves little over 23,000 valid orders.
Some people ordered 1 unit. Others 2. Others 3 and some with 4 units. So, expect the avg. units/order to be about 2. Could also be 2.5 or 3 or even 1.5, etc.
That means 46,000 units, 2 x 23,000, before getting to last order made today. Very likely this number is right but impossible to know for sure.
BFL will make 400 units/day. 2,000 units/week. 8,000 units/month. That means:
->4 months = 32,000 units
->5 months = 40,000 units
->6 months = 48,000 units
If you want to be somewhat optimistic you could say, 40% cancelled but that seems a tad high to me & 1.5 units per order which is little on the low side.
33,000 * 0.6 = ~20,000 * 1.5 = 30,000 units = 3 months + 3 weeks (almost 4 months) before order ships out.
DELIVERY TIME
Add another at least 12-15 days for outside of USA or 4-7 days inside USA to that time.
This comes out to 4-6 months to receive an order placed around early April.
NOTES:
* Cancelled orders can be more or less than estimated. It is impossible to know exactly how many there are for sure. Some people have said maybe as high as 50-70% for fake & refunded orders. Just redo the math to get an estimated ship date for your order if you agree with them instead.
** Unit avg per order is very likely 2 but can be more (or less).
I had to guess for both the percentage of cancelled orders and units/order. I believe and hope they are close to the actual results but have no idea whether those guesses are right or wrong.
PS, even if you were really optimistic, 50% cancel + 1.5 units/order, you still would be looking around 3+ months before product shipped out to you.
PPS, It maybe best to go with 50% cancel & 2 units/order. That will make this shipping "guess" closer to both 30 & 70% because half way in-between them. This would make sense since the actual cancelled orders are unknown by us and could be somewhere between 30-70%.
33,000 * .5 * 2 = 33,000 units / 2,000 = 16.5 weeks = 4.125 months + delivery time.
How does one put in a fake order and how do they not know how many orders there are? Overall, I enjoyed the fuzzy math.
I have a question for those who've ordered more than one unit at the same time: Did you get a single order number, or an order number assigned to each unit. If the former, wouldn't they have to send your complete order at the same time oppose to splitting up the order?