Is'nt all a big guess about the future "price" of a bitcoin ?
+1, we can only speculate at this point. We will soon know
... 
Topic: [Announcement] Avalon ASIC Development Status [Batch #1] - page 40. (Read 155318 times)
+1, we can only speculate at this point. We will soon know
... 
That would be 200m$ worth of BFL hardware... Not going to happen, leaving quite a margin for less efficient device to cover their investments ... at some point.
Are you one of these guys who think that "640kB ought to be enough for anyone"?
If Bitcoin continue to succeed, it will come to a point where $200M will have been spent on mining hardware.
Just consider that today alone, $20M has been spent on CPU/GPU/FGPA mining hardware.
Going to $200M is only a 10x increase.
The 20m$ GPUs pay themselves in ~300 days with current profit/watts, while the 200m$ =
The price would need to be of an average of 240$ during the next four year for hardware to pay for itself in the same duration.
In other word, very plausible given the imbalance in monetary distribution, Unfortunately my planing for a such a scenario is right next to my alien invasion preparedness folder.
That would be 200m$ worth of BFL hardware... Not going to happen, leaving quite a margin for less efficient device to cover their investments ... at some point.
Are you one of these guys who think that "640kB ought to be enough for anyone"?
If Bitcoin continue to succeed, it will come to a point where $200M will have been spent on mining hardware.
Just consider that today alone, $20M has been spent on CPU/GPU/FGPA mining hardware.
Going to $200M is only a 10x increase.
That would be 200m$ worth of BFL hardware... Not going to happen, leaving quite a margin for less efficient device to cover their investments ... at some point.
Are you one of these guys who think that "640kB ought to be enough for anyone"?
If Bitcoin continue to succeed, it will come to a point where $200M will have been spent on mining hardware.
Just consider that today alone, $20M has been spent on CPU/GPU/FGPA mining hardware.
Going to $200M is only a 10x increase.
About power figures,
If the same energy now spent on GPU get spent on 1w/ghs ASICs the difficulty will be 450x what it is now or ~1.38 billion.
That would be 200m$ worth of BFL hardware... Not going to happen, leaving quite a margin for less efficient device to cover their investments ... at some point.
If the same energy now spent on GPU get spent on 1w/ghs ASICs the difficulty will be 450x what it is now or ~1.38 billion.
That would be 200m$ worth of BFL hardware... Not going to happen, leaving quite a margin for less efficient device to cover their investments ... at some point.
Is'nt all a big guess about the future "price" of a bitcoin ?
So take price out of the equation. A slightly better way to estimate future returns is on BTC output verses BTC cost today.
Today's price of $12/btc, $1299 = 108 BTC for an Avalon ASIC.
66 GH/s, 12.5 btc/block reward
That leaves only 1 variable, network difficulty. ASIC pre-orders are going to hit 10x pretty quickly, beyond that it'll probably taper off.
10x network difficulty = 1.08 btc/day
100 days to recover spent coins. Funny how that turned out to be a nice round number.
I keep reading about estimate, prediction, comparison.. power usage, difficulty, Gh/s...
Everytimes, ONE BIG THING comes to my mind...
Is'nt all a big guess about the future "price" of a bitcoin ?
No one can predict the price, I assume that's why all calculation and estimate are done on a 12$ basis.. Ok, we need a base to make up our mind..
BUT, it almost a certitude that the ratio of exchange will not be 12 USD/BTC in two years, even in few month !
As we saw in the last 2 years, the ratio of exchange USD/BTC have been between 2 and 30 (let's say 32 to simplify) from 2 to 32 it's 4 times doubling or dividing.
Some scenario on a 2 year time span :
(IMHO) realistic possibility : X4 or /4
12 double 4 times = 192 USD/BTC ratio. peoples will then say, OMG, why I have not ordered tons of those asic !
12 halved 4 times = 1.5 USD/BTC ratio. I dont want to write what peoples might say !
major event : 0 USD/BTC (it's not impossible)
(IMHO) conservative possibility : X2 or /2
12 double 1 time = 24 USD/BTC : enought to say I would mine with a power cost of 0.30$/Kwh
12 divided 1 time = 6 USD/BTC : hard time for miner !
major event : 0 USD/BTC (it's not impossible)
As an optimistic : I'll give it a try... I bet on a 100 Fiat/BTC ratio within 2 years....
Buying asic..
And I'll never invest more than I can afford to lose overnight because "major event : 0 USD/BTC (it's not impossible)"
Was my 2 satoshi
Everytimes, ONE BIG THING comes to my mind...
Is'nt all a big guess about the future "price" of a bitcoin ?
No one can predict the price, I assume that's why all calculation and estimate are done on a 12$ basis.. Ok, we need a base to make up our mind..
BUT, it almost a certitude that the ratio of exchange will not be 12 USD/BTC in two years, even in few month !
As we saw in the last 2 years, the ratio of exchange USD/BTC have been between 2 and 30 (let's say 32 to simplify) from 2 to 32 it's 4 times doubling or dividing.
Some scenario on a 2 year time span :
(IMHO) realistic possibility : X4 or /4
12 double 4 times = 192 USD/BTC ratio. peoples will then say, OMG, why I have not ordered tons of those asic !
12 halved 4 times = 1.5 USD/BTC ratio. I dont want to write what peoples might say !
major event : 0 USD/BTC (it's not impossible)
(IMHO) conservative possibility : X2 or /2
12 double 1 time = 24 USD/BTC : enought to say I would mine with a power cost of 0.30$/Kwh
12 divided 1 time = 6 USD/BTC : hard time for miner !
major event : 0 USD/BTC (it's not impossible)
As an optimistic : I'll give it a try... I bet on a 100 Fiat/BTC ratio within 2 years....
Buying asic..
And I'll never invest more than I can afford to lose overnight because "major event : 0 USD/BTC (it's not impossible)"
Was my 2 satoshi
What do you think about this?
Especially as regards the European market, with electricity costs between $ 0.10-0.30/kwh
Especially as regards the European market, with electricity costs between $ 0.10-0.30/kwh
strictly speaking on power being the only variable I wouldn't even suggest to "mine-for-profit" basis with power rates higher than $0.10 ( and you are unable to get write offs or reductions. )
Sorry, but you know, in how many countries in the world the power rates is cheaper than $0.10, right?
In Europe I know none! This means, that you throw away in minimum the whole European market for "mine-for-profit" or "long term mining as an investment" customers!
The main inputs of mining are equipment cost and electricity cost, decent mining setups require pretty light amount of man hours to maintain. So like other electricity sensitive activities areas with the cheapest power will have a distinct advantage in terms of ROI rates. Unless Europe develops more efficient hardware and then restricts export of said hardware it's going to be at a disadvantage in these activities given current electricity costs.
this whole power debate is exactly why i have always planned to set up solar/wind/whatever power sources asap for any significant mining effort. ...i should set up a solar selling business for BTC... 
I have wind, hydro and solar setup on my property. I don't live there but when I do - free everything!
this whole power debate is exactly why i have always planned to set up solar/wind/whatever power sources asap for any significant mining effort. ...i should set up a solar selling business for BTC...
I have wind, hydro and solar setup on my property. I don't live there but when I do - free everything!
this whole power debate is exactly why i have always planned to set up solar/wind/whatever power sources asap for any significant mining effort. ...i should set up a solar selling business for BTC...
Rather than solar alone you should look into companies that are pioneering technology to convert heat (on your roof) into power. Most average sized houses have a 47 kilowatt hotplate right above their heads.All that energy goes to waste every day. Companies that are working to harness that thermal energy are probably going to be very rich in the future.
Some thermal waters heaters (not the solar panel type) for example, require very little roof area to heat water. Converting the rest of it into actual electrical energy is the sweet spot in alternative energy.
this whole power debate is exactly why i have always planned to set up solar/wind/whatever power sources asap for any significant mining effort. ...i should set up a solar selling business for BTC...
> if you can not get access to cheap power, do not go into mining.
严重支持!
严重支持!
The difficulty will be 10x within four weeks of the first ASICs that start shipping, be it BFL or Tom's offering. After a month, most of the back orders of both companies will be well into consumers hands and the difficulty will rise. 6 months? It will be a lot more than 10x by then.
Congrats, you just made a point that hurts the ASIC sales across the board.If your words are taken literally, then the ASIC sellers are selling people very expensive lemons that will take a year or more to get their investment back....and then.....*barely any profit* per month.
As far as the "barely any profit" per month goes, that only applies to devices with GH/w ratios. The more efficient devices should remain profitable for a very long time.
You actually confirmed that....disturbing. Well I applaud your honesty on it at least...
Assuming bASIC and BFL ship around the start of December.
By the end of Decemeber, I expect bASIC to have shipped all units .
~800 * 54 = 43 TH/s (assuming bASIC performance stays at 54GH/s..it will most likely be higher)
BFL has more orders and more man power...let's be really conservative and say they ship 75GH/s in Dec.
thats 43 + 75 + 22 = 140 TH/S bare minimum
So that IS ~7X difficulty from day ONE for Avalon customers. I believe your "conservative" ramp up numbers are not conservative enough.
Regardless, I'd say a very "conservative" guess is that within 3 months of Avalon's release, difficulty will be over 10X (IMO, easily). Long terms calculations should begin a minimum of 10X.
Everyone has been saying time-to-ship is the most important factor...well I'd like to look slightly further out than 3 months. The most that I can conservatively plan for is 6-10 months. Who knows what the landscape will be like several months from now.
My outlook for the short-medium term is 10x-30x difficulty. All 3 major offerings will be profitable during this time...how profitable depends on power cost.
Since BFL has published (confident) power numbers...let's use them as a baseline.
Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 60W = $0.14
Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 100W = $0.29
Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 200W = $0.48
Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 400W = $0.96
Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 60W = $0.36
Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 100W = $0.60
Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 200W = $1.20
Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 400W = $2.40
25 BTC/block @ 30M difficulty @ $12 USD/BTC = $12.07 / day
Let's look at how much profit is effected by power
using 60W as baseline
Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 60W = baseline is 0% more profitable
Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 100W = baseline is 1.27% more profitable
Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 200W = baseline is 2.94% more profitable
Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 400W = baseline is 7.38% more profitable
Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 60W = baseline is 0% more profitable
Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 100W = baseline is 2.09% more profitable
Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 200W = baseline is 7.72% more profitable
Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 400W = baseline is 21.10% more profitable
Obviously, as difficulty goes up, profitability goesupdown. As such, the affect of power usage on profitable also goes up.
Some people might say 5% is nothing...we tip pool operators that much. Others are trying to maximize every penny. Granted, Avalon now claims a 10% edge in hashing power (over BFL)...I am uncertain how long that edge will last. Both bASIC and BFL have stated that there is (perhaps significant) room for improvement here.
I have orders from each of the big 3, so I'm not trying to bash Avalon here. As a customer I just want a great product that will give me a decent bang for my buck.
BFL offers good hash rate with lower power.
bASIC offers good $/GH...still waiting for power numbers.
Avalon still has good $/GH (with bumped specs)....still waiting for power numbers.
I tried to diversify for the first run of ASICs, but if/when I decide to order more units...I'm looking for the best bang for the buck going forward.
By the end of Decemeber, I expect bASIC to have shipped all units .
Quote from: cablepair
...it will require at least a 7 days of 8-10 hour days,
~800 * 54 = 43 TH/s (assuming bASIC performance stays at 54GH/s..it will most likely be higher)
BFL has more orders and more man power...let's be really conservative and say they ship 75GH/s in Dec.
thats 43 + 75 + 22 = 140 TH/S bare minimum
So that IS ~7X difficulty from day ONE for Avalon customers. I believe your "conservative" ramp up numbers are not conservative enough.
Regardless, I'd say a very "conservative" guess is that within 3 months of Avalon's release, difficulty will be over 10X (IMO, easily). Long terms calculations should begin a minimum of 10X.
Everyone has been saying time-to-ship is the most important factor...well I'd like to look slightly further out than 3 months. The most that I can conservatively plan for is 6-10 months. Who knows what the landscape will be like several months from now.
My outlook for the short-medium term is 10x-30x difficulty. All 3 major offerings will be profitable during this time...how profitable depends on power cost.
Since BFL has published (confident) power numbers...let's use them as a baseline.
Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 60W = $0.14
Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 100W = $0.29
Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 200W = $0.48
Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 400W = $0.96
Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 60W = $0.36
Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 100W = $0.60
Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 200W = $1.20
Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 400W = $2.40
25 BTC/block @ 30M difficulty @ $12 USD/BTC = $12.07 / day
Let's look at how much profit is effected by power
using 60W as baseline
Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 60W = baseline is 0% more profitable
Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 100W = baseline is 1.27% more profitable
Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 200W = baseline is 2.94% more profitable
Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 400W = baseline is 7.38% more profitable
Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 60W = baseline is 0% more profitable
Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 100W = baseline is 2.09% more profitable
Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 200W = baseline is 7.72% more profitable
Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 400W = baseline is 21.10% more profitable
Obviously, as difficulty goes up, profitability goes
Some people might say 5% is nothing...we tip pool operators that much. Others are trying to maximize every penny. Granted, Avalon now claims a 10% edge in hashing power (over BFL)...I am uncertain how long that edge will last. Both bASIC and BFL have stated that there is (perhaps significant) room for improvement here.
I have orders from each of the big 3, so I'm not trying to bash Avalon here. As a customer I just want a great product that will give me a decent bang for my buck.
BFL offers good hash rate with lower power.
bASIC offers good $/GH...still waiting for power numbers.
Avalon still has good $/GH (with bumped specs)....still waiting for power numbers.
I tried to diversify for the first run of ASICs, but if/when I decide to order more units...I'm looking for the best bang for the buck going forward.
Forgive me if I am mistaken, but aren't you scheduled to ship in January? Assuming Tom is on time (and there's no reason to think he isn't) between Tom and BFL, yes I expect 150 TH to be shipped by the end of January. If you're shipping in December, then I retract my statement. We should have our entire pre-order backlog cleared in January, assuming all goes according to plan.
As far as the "barely any profit" per month goes, that only applies to devices with GH/w ratios. The more efficient devices should remain profitable for a very long time.
As far as the "barely any profit" per month goes, that only applies to devices with GH/w ratios. The more efficient devices should remain profitable for a very long time.
Sounds good.
The difficulty will be 10x within four weeks of the first ASICs that start shipping, be it BFL or Tom's offering. After a month, most of the back orders of both companies will be well into consumers hands and the difficulty will rise. 6 months? It will be a lot more than 10x by then.
How is this any different then? Avalon will be also shipping around that time, and we are bound to finish shipping before you simply due to our much lower volume, are you saying you(BFL) and Tom will ship 150+TH before we ship any of our Avalon units out? then I suppose I do not want to compare my oranges to your imaginary apples.
Either way, I'll be providing a ASIC web based comparison tool within the week and people will decide for themselves.
Forgive me if I am mistaken, but aren't you scheduled to ship in January? Assuming Tom is on time (and there's no reason to think he isn't) between Tom and BFL, yes I expect 150 TH to be shipped by the end of January. If you're shipping in December, then I retract my statement. We should have our entire pre-order backlog cleared in January, assuming all goes according to plan.
As far as the "barely any profit" per month goes, that only applies to devices with GH/w ratios. The more efficient devices should remain profitable for a very long time.
Either way, I'll be providing a ASIC web based comparison tool within the week and people will decide for themselves.
Sounds good! The difficulty will be 10x within four weeks of the first ASICs that start shipping, be it BFL or Tom's offering. After a month, most of the back orders of both companies will be well into consumers hands and the difficulty will rise. 6 months? It will be a lot more than 10x by then.
How is this any different then? Avalon will be also shipping around that time, and we are bound to finish shipping before you simply due to our much lower volume, are you saying you(BFL) and Tom will ship 150+TH before we ship any of our Avalon units out? then I suppose I do not want to compare my oranges to your imaginary apples.
Either way, I'll be providing a ASIC web based comparison tool within the week and people will decide for themselves.
Jump to: