Topic: [Announcement] Avalon ASIC Development Status [Batch #1] - page 41. (Read 155335 times)

You think one poll is representative? Think not! Furthermore, there is already a list of BFL-order. Perhaps 10% on it

And.......what no one considered so far: The energy prices will rise in the future in many countries, and will not stay on the same level!

I am guessing from the collective volume.

Why don't you start a poll thread and ask people what they ordered and the quantity so we have an idea of whom is heavily invested in ASIC mining?

Sure???
So, from where does the expected increase of the difficulty about 10x or 20x?

It becomes more efficient with more than one mining device. But...there aren't that many miners out there who are investing 5 thousand or more dollars into their pre-orders.

You could cater to the niche crowd within the niche crowd though...using those numbers though!

I can't speak for anyone else, but I am looking for BTC rather than converting those BTC into $$$ directly. So that is not my operating strategy.

Perhaps there will be a manufacturing defect that will rear it's ugly head after customers have received their orders. Dunno.

Either way, it sounds like one way to stay profitable with mining hardware...is remote upgradability.

If the device cannot be upgraded with better cooling to achieve higher Gh/s then it is a bad option for the long term.

why you calculate with a single mining device? why not .. with 5 or 10?

60 + 60 + 60 + 60 + 60 + 20 + 85 = 405 watts (not including an active monitor) (for 300Gh/s)
60 + 60 + 60 + 60 + 60 + 60 + 60 + 60 + 60 + 60 + 20 + 85 = 705 watt (not including an active monitor) (for 600Gh/s)

so, what do you mean with your statement above?  

What kind of major business expenses pay themselves back— passively no less!— in just a year?   Perhaps 7%/wk is more to your liking? Those tastes are catered to in other parts of the forum.

There are major risks in mining— including the risk that all that fancy hardware could be worthless before it arrives due to a loss of interest in Bitcoin, security flaws, legal attacks, etc. Or things like breakthrough optimizations for SHA256^2 allowing massive speedups on equal process or someone somehow doing a major run a vastly better process... just to name a few.

Meanwhile y'all have been ordering devices without concrete specs (including BFL customers— a substantial amount of pre-ordering happened when they were saying nothing about power at all!) which makes concrete reasoning about returns impossible if uncertainty about the future difficulty and exchange rate hadn't already made it impossible.

And after that, you're worried about some months difference in payback timeframes for some estimates?  Suicidal.  I hope no one has put money into these asic preorders that they can't afford to lose.

Any chance of decreasing the operating speed and core voltage to boost GH/w efficiency? I fear if BFL delivers on their 1 GH/w efficiency and nobody is close then they will be the only choice for those with a multiple year outlook on using these devices.

Congrats, you just made a point that hurts the ASIC sales across the board.

If your words are taken literally, then the ASIC sellers are selling people very expensive lemons that will take a year or more to get their investment back....and then.....*barely any profit* per month.

Tethered wattage means your device will consume anywhere from 60watts on up:

Not including a standard router wattage: 20watts~

If a laptop: 30 to 65 additional watts.

If a barebones desktop: Anywhere from 80 to 160 watts. (not including the monitor)

        If a fully loaded desktop with 1 or more GPU cards....I care not to speculate. (These are people of the "enthusiast" mining community!)


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If we aren't getting very cheap DD-WRT routers in the box to offset the above tethered wattage, Your 60watt number is only for those whom aren't looking at the real numbers.

Without a very cheap low powered controller it is 60 + 20 + 30 = 110 watts. (Low powered laptop)

If a barebones desktop is employed (best case scenario): 60 + 20 + 85 = 165 watts. (not including an active monitor)

I care not to speculate on what a multi-GPU rig consumes.

Sorry, but you know, in how many countries in the world the power rates is cheaper than $0.10, right?
In Europe I know none! This means, that you throw away in minimum the whole European market for  "mine-for-profit" or "long term mining as an investment" customers!

The difficulty will be 10x within four weeks of the first ASICs that start shipping, be it BFL or Tom's offering.  After a month, most of the back orders of both companies will be well into consumers hands and the difficulty will rise.  6 months?  It will be a lot more than 10x by then.

Your ROI vs Power Consumption is based on your cost for power and if you're assuming cheap power to base your calculations on, I think you're doing a disservice to a lot of miners.  There's no reason to only mine if you have cheap power - you should buy power efficient devices. 

It's pretty irresponsible to even suggest that power doesn't matter, if for no other reason than the environmental impact.  It's a travesty when people mine with inefficient devices just because they aren't the ones having to pay for that power.  But someone, somewhere, is having to pay and it's costing the environment no matter who's paying the monetary bill. Everyone should be striving to have the most power efficient mining devices out there.

Run the numbers then speak to me again.


That's not what I said, nor what we at Avalon did. I made a statement on long term mining as an investment, stating if you can not get access to cheap power, do not go into mining.


8 month based on what? I would much prefer if you have some numbers to back this claim up.

In addition, in case you missed my point. These numbers are made based on the assumption ASIC miners are mining at this 6x or 10x difficulty from day one, this will not happen at all. This is similar to saying the difficulty will raise 6x or 10x before any ASICs are delivered. which as you know, clearly is not the case.

In fact, by stating this 10x estimate, I am saying I predict within 6 month, the network speed will go up 10x, even when by the time all the ASICs become online, and difficulty goes up your ROI to start mining at 6 month later will be 156 days I gave out, which only means one thing, that your ROI will definitely be much less.

I have already gave a really conservative estimate on ROI, unless anybody can show me some other numbers that reach your conclusion of how Power Consumption matters a lot in ROI, I would be much appreciated if people do not speak with such prejudice about power consumption and spread FUD in this thread.

Thank you.


Very soon now, we still have more exciting news to release, and after we tackle a potential shipping delay around Chinese New Year. Once we mitigated this issue we can offer a better picture on when these will ship out. Unlike our competition, we will release much smaller batches every week or so, and they will ship out within the week. Meaning our customers will always receive their product quickly as possible and we do not get stuck with back orders which we have to fill.

Except that, I only post in Tom's threads when he posts lies about myself or BFL.  So... it's not really trolling if it's responding to posts Tom has made.  If Tom doesn't want me to post in his threads, he should stop lying.  Nice try though.

Hey Ice_chill,

Hard for Tom to be friendly with BFL when Josh trolls his thread mercilessly.

Good news! Do you have any idea when the non-preorder, retail ordering will start?

Yes to above post, because when the difficulty increases far enough, it's the running costs that will determine the lifespan of the product.

Will you eventually be selling a non-standalone version or will the unit come with the ability to disable the openWRT hardware? What are the power estimates for the non-mining (linux host) hardware?

With such high power usage, it seems you'd need to at least double the hash rate to be competitive from a pricing standpoint.


When designing your hardware, please don't assume that only people who can get power for <= $0.10 would like to "mine for profit". Power usage is a significant concern if your competitors are offering 60GH/s @ 60W. To be competitive (assuming similar hash rates and cost per device), you really need to have something less than ~200W (personally, I'd really only see it being competitive at <150W for similar hash rates).

that said, i'm happy there is competition in the marketplace and commend the avalon team on their efforts.

Very interesting.

Amazingly small chips. Do you know yet how many of them will be on one board ?

Easy to say that when you have a superior product, will see how well wishing you are to BFL

Awesome Job Guys.

+1 and lots of respect to your team - Good luck with everything, I know your going to bring a really special and innovative product to the table.

If there is anything myself or anyone on my team can do for you please don't hesitate to reach out. We are are competitors but we still are friends

Good luck!

Tom
[email protected]
(315) 514-0269