I can see how BFL was put in a tough spot a couple months back... They find out that the QFN package won't be able to be cooled as effectively as they thought it would. So, what can they do?
Lower speed for first batch then upgrade those later on.
People would be more than happy with 'reduced ASIC performance' then 'no ASIC at all performance' which they get at the moment...
I don't think the dates were realistical in the first place because of how they suddenly decided to redesign the board after the original shipping date.
They didn't have a final product at that october date and you cannot set a shipping date if you haven't even seen your final working product.
That, combined with several more delays pretty much means their dates are meaningless as such and their primary goal was, i assume, to get people exited so they get the funding.
Since BFL claims that the FPGA run gave them heaps of experience in handling delays and Josh has stated that these delays are because they want a perfect chip it is impossible for BFL to ever have taken their dates seriously. There must have been, like, a 90% chance that the first date would never happen. This next date i'd say there is a
40% chance they will deliver. I think that the likelyhood of them shipping increases as we approach March.
BFL
must fully understand that they are still in the design stage of their project and that the likelyhood for errors is high.
No responsible company could have set these dates in such a situation. The fact that the date has been moved several time shows that BFL lost control of the process several times.
They should have said from the beginning that they will ship propably early 2013 and not set a hard date at all unless they are sure.
I would have liked them to do that (release lower speed on the first batch with promise to upgrade). Seems like a good alternative; even though it would have been expensive for them to do so, it would have staved a large majority of reputation-tarnishing, and would have most certainly made their preorder customers quite happy.
Good post.
You didn't know where the BTC price was going to be 6 months ago. Neither did BFL.
Simple. If they can't control currency exchange risk, they shouldn't have accepted payments in BTC in the first place!
If you take that attitude, it makes Bitcoin worthless as a currency.
BFL converted their BTC to USD as soon as they received each order to protect themselves against a BTC price drop.
Well, they should have protected themselves against a BTC price rise as well? It is not my fault if they've speculated and didn't do that!
How could they have protected themselves against both a rise and a fall in BTC price at the same time? If you know how to do that, then you should be a billionaire already.
Please go look at legal rulings regarding currency transfer risk. In ALL cases, the courts have decided that the base currency of the transaction designates the refund amount. If the Euro rises relative to USD after someone pays for a USD-priced item with Euro, then the refund for that item would drop in terms of Euro, just like the refund for BFL's miners dropped in terms of BTC. I don't really care that you disagree, but that's what the courts dictate. When you get them to agree with you instead, please do let us all know and proclaim your viewpoint as the more logical one. Until then, there's not a thing you can do about it.
Looking at the way things are now, I think anyone with reasonable intelligence could conclude that BFL is probably some kind of scam.
Of course the obvious exception are those with significant pre-orders, who are putting their fingers in their ears and saying "I'm not listening!" They can't afford for it to be a scam, so therefore it must not be one.
And of course anyone who points out the scam warning signs is abused.
It's Pirateat40 all over again, just a different type of scam. The CEO is a convicted fraudster for fucks sake, how dumb do you need to be?
It'll be fun to come back to posts like this and say "I told you so" when I receive my ASICs.
It's not a scam.
All signs point towards a company inexperienced in producing Bitcoin ASICs attempting to produce Bitcoin ASICs. Unexpected delays happen in a LOT of startup companies. Target dates are missed over and over again in a LOT of startup companies. Modifying the end product in the middle of the production process happens in a LOT of startup companies.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: If BFL was going to run with the money, they would have done so long ago. Far more people are cancelling their orders than are keeping them, so they would be stupid to continue the scam (if it was one) and continue to give refunds. It would be money out of their pockets for no reason at all if it was a scam. If you believe that anyone with "reasonable intelligence" could conclude BFL is some kind of scam, please do tell why they haven't run yet.
yes, You are right, only inexperienced company can order 100 000 chips without a prototype and testing, without sure if these chips will work, hoping for a miracle.
Or a company who realizes that expedient delivery of product is what drives their profit, and risking $3M of preorders on an additional 4-6 week delay isn't worth saving $80k on a chip run.
