It'll be fun to come back to posts like this and say "I told you so" when I receive my ASICs.
Don't be an asshole. It may backfire and if BFL really is a scam people will come back to your posts and tell you "We told you so".
It's not a scam. All signs point towards a company inexperienced in producing Bitcoin ASICs attempting to produce Bitcoin ASICs. Unexpected delays happen in a LOT of startup companies. Target dates are missed over and over again in a LOT of startup companies. Modifying the end product in the middle of the production process happens in a LOT of startup companies.
Going bankrupt before being able to deliver its first product happens in a LOT of startup companies. Managers going nuts and attempting to fuck shareholders over happens in a LOT of startup companies too. Why does it seem so unbelievable to you? Has it never occured to you that we might be right?
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: If BFL was going to run with the money, they would have done so long ago. Far more people are cancelling their orders than are keeping them, so they would be stupid to continue the scam (if it was one) and continue to give refunds. It would be money out of their pockets for no reason at all if it was a scam. If you believe that anyone with "reasonable intelligence" could conclude BFL is some kind of scam, please do tell why they haven't run yet.
I remember people saying the very same thing about Pirate. He managed to keep his business running flawlessly for about 8 months. People kept asking : if he's a scammer, why hasn't he run with our money yet? Well because a good scammer never runs with his first money. He builds trust over time. He wants to get as many faithful clients as possible and he only runs with their money if the scam is no longer sustainable. Why? Because it's more profitable than to run away with the first few bucks he gets.
Sure, they could go bankrupt. But that is NOT a scam. A scam is purposefully taking other people's money for profit or other personal gain, whilst knowing you cannot deliver on the promises you make. I do not discount the fact that BFL could go bankrupt (though I personally find that scenario unlikely).
Yeah, the big difference being that Pirate had incentive to keep going. BFL's incentive to keep the scam going is GONE. Out the window. Bye-bye. Refunds have exceeded new orders by a large margin for at least the past month. BFL is not gaining any more faithful clients like Pirate was. If anything, they are gaining more distrust and paying out far more in refunds than they are gaining in new pre-orders. It makes ZERO sense for them to continue the scam if it was a scam. "he only runs with their money if the scam is no longer sustainable" - that point was reached by BFL a month ago.
they would be stupid to continue the scam (if it was one) and continue to give refunds.
They give only partial refunds! My pre-order is paid in BTC and now they do not honor full BTC refunds!
If you believe that anyone with "reasonable intelligence" could conclude BFL is some kind of scam, please do tell why they haven't run yet.
Because they think they can have perfectly legal profit without doing anything!
You didn't know where the BTC price was going to be 6 months ago. Neither did BFL. BFL converted their BTC to USD as soon as they received each order to protect themselves against a BTC price drop. If BTC was now worth $0.50, I'd bet anything that you'd be demanding a full refund in USD equivalent, not BTC. And that is exactly what BFL would give you, same as they are giving you today.
The units were priced in USD, and you got the USD equivalent for your return. It would be a FREE hedge against the price of BTC dropping if BFL was to give you a full refund of your entire BTC amount. That wouldn't be fair to the company at all.
If you wish to continue to propagate this lie (that BFL doesn't give a full refund), then please do take it to a court of law and see if you can get ANY judge to agree with you.
they would be stupid to continue the scam (if it was one) and continue to give refunds.
Pirate gave "refunds" right up until he shut down. If BFL was running a scam, they would continue accepting preorders and giving refunds until the rate of refunds exceeded the rate of preorders.
Right - that's exactly what I am saying. The rate of refunds has exceeded the rate of new preorders for quite some time (at least a month). A quick perusal of the various related threads here tells that story quite easily.
I can see how BFL was put in a tough spot a couple months back... They find out that the QFN package won't be able to be cooled as effectively as they thought it would. So, what can they do?
If that were true, they would have working sample chips and be able to demo them. No demo, therefore no chips, therefore they are still just spewing lies.
Perhaps. Maybe they killed all their initial samples by not being able to cool them effectively? I don't know, I'd like to hear more about that part from Josh.