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Topic: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections - page 2. (Read 14526 times)

sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
because there is nothing constructive about TA, even if you did it correctly. but you are just drawing random lines

but dont worry, you can chalk up losses to "overtrading" or "lack of discipline" like Mark Douglas and all the other failure TA traders

There is a method to the madness however. Because everyone - whether they would like to believe it or not - when they look at a chart, see patterns and associate something with them based on some prior experience, etc. As a consequence, the pattern comes to fruition, and the people that saw the pattern and decided to hold/sell/buy wrote their own future. TA, at least in my opinion, to a certain extent comes down to math and the psychological aspect of trying to figure out what everyone else is thinking about before they know it themselves.

good point -- as i like to say, if there are methods that work, they can be considered functional analysis. if there aren't, why is everyone here wasting their time with a cointoss? there's satoshidice for that Tongue

i think the bear market is rustling all the newbies' jimmies Wink
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
that triangle is just LOL
wow

upper line has two points of contact, lower line is pure speculation. 'LOL' isn't exactly constructive Tongue

--arepo

because there is nothing constructive about TA, even if you did it correctly. but you are just drawing random lines

but dont worry, you can chalk up losses to "overtrading" or "lack of discipline" like Mark Douglas and all the other failure TA traders

There is a method to the madness however. Because everyone - whether they would like to believe it or not - when they look at a chart, see patterns and associate something with them based on some prior experience, etc. As a consequence, the pattern comes to fruition, and the people that saw the pattern and decided to hold/sell/buy wrote their own future. TA, at least in my opinion, to a certain extent comes down to math and the psychological aspect of trying to figure out what everyone else is thinking about before they know it themselves.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
because there is nothing constructive about TA, even if you did it correctly. but you are just drawing random lines

but dont worry, you can chalk up losses to "overtrading" or "lack of discipline" like Mark Douglas and all the other failure TA traders

there are many others threads on this board dedicated to the question of whether or not methods of TA can be considered 'effective'. if you'd like to have that conversation, you can continue it there, or at least supply some kind of new argumentation besides the bald assertion that it doesn't work because it doesn't.

as i said before (i'd hate to be the tyrant who self-moderates) so discussion and presentation of TA ITT please. (assertions don't count as discussion Tongue)

--arepo

edit: it's hilarious how quiet this thread was as my many projections last week unfolded, but as soon as i get one thing wrong, the TA-naysayers are back Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false


I expect a continuation of the downward trend.

very good, i notice that bear pennant, too. we will break out down.

but everyone is still screaming BUBBLE and none of my data seriously suggests that we'll break below $90 in the mid-term. any other arguments for this besides that?
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
that triangle is just LOL
wow

upper line has two points of contact, lower line is pure speculation. 'LOL' isn't exactly constructive Tongue

--arepo

because there is nothing constructive about TA, even if you did it correctly. but you are just drawing random lines

but dont worry, you can chalk up losses to "overtrading" or "lack of discipline" like Mark Douglas and all the other failure TA traders
hero member
Activity: 700
Merit: 500
daytrader/superhero


I expect a continuation of the downward trend.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
that triangle is just LOL
wow

upper line has two points of contact, lower line is pure speculation. 'LOL' isn't exactly constructive Tongue

--arepo
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
that triangle is just LOL
wow
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
midterm projections still on track:

based on some fractal analysis, the lowest feasible bottom is around $90. i suspect that's where the support will be if we break $120.

it's amazing, but we're still 'consolidating' in huge, week-long swings from the 10 April crash:

-===-



-===-

modeling this with the classic triangle consolidation pattern, we get a similar picture, but unfortunately, it's difficult to tell what the slope of the bottom support is. if it is a flat-bottomed triangle, then $90 will be the support (yellow line); if it is a symmetrical triangle, we may see prices even lower (white line) before we reach the short-term bottom.

what are you guys anticipating?

--arepo
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from: arepo on 20:01:44, 27 April 2013

you guys are fools if you think we're going to break $120 any time soon.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Roll Eyes

thanks for the accountability. i qualified this failed prediction a few posts ago:

Broke out the wrong way  

Again stop using triangles dammit.

why not? the breakout was anticipated perfectly, the direction not so much. working on an accountability report right now, trying to determine the factors that contributed to the failure of the last projection.

--arepo

I could save you some time - someone dumped 10k coins, and some others dumped 2 x 5000 earlier. People were not buying in masses in meantime.

That's it, I should patent a name for it, DUMPA20000 or something  Grin

yes, i was watching, and it was clear that the dump was a single or a few entities, not an emergent movement. there's a lot of bearish news in the air, and the market is short-term overbought. i'm trying to determine if we should expect $120 to hold, or if we're gearing up for a correction-to-the-correction of the bullish move to $165. i highly suspect these individuals were attempting to 'paint the tape', as a very bullish consolidation turned very suddenly into a very bearish picture. this event will be good to consider in another problem i'm working on, can/does price manipulation break standard methods of TA?.

--arepo

notme also added his (very valuable) 2-cents:

Artificially increasing the volatility will only transfer money from them to me.  There are lots of other market makers that feel the same.  In the long run, it will make no difference.

However, this is an excellent example of why no TA is perfect (I know you don't believe this yourself arepo, just picking a teaching moment for new traders).  People will do what they want despite what any sane trader would say about the chart. This is because many trade bitcoin who do not understand how to use short time frame TA properly: to make a planned trade more efficiently.  Using it speculatively is very risky when you look at short time frames.

--arepo
newbie
Activity: 16
Merit: 0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from: arepo on 20:01:44, 27 April 2013

you guys are fools if you think we're going to break $120 any time soon.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Roll Eyes
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
arepo - I see your point with the triangles, but I don't understand how you can't take volume into play?

well after the fact, it's pretty convenient that what i called for has just played out.

but i'm not quite sure what you mean? i'm not taking volume into account?

--arepo
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
arepo - I see your point with the triangles, but I don't understand how you can't take volume into play?
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false

and as always, if you profit from me, help keep it free! consider my presentation of analysis here a donation of my time and skills. feel free to tell me what you think it's worth! (address in sig).

--arepo

Well, right now I'm just holding. But if I do start trading using your advice I'll definitely share my profits if and when I see them, and I'd encourage others to do so as well. It's hard to put a number on good advice, but a percentage of my profits, no matter how big or small, is definitely worth it.

no pressure, donations are optional Tongue

i wish you the best of luck. Smiley

--arepo
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100

and as always, if you profit from me, help keep it free! consider my presentation of analysis here a donation of my time and skills. feel free to tell me what you think it's worth! (address in sig).

--arepo

Well, right now I'm just holding. But if I do start trading using your advice I'll definitely share my profits if and when I see them, and I'd encourage others to do so as well. It's hard to put a number on good advice, but a percentage of my profits, no matter how big or small, is definitely worth it.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
I also want to thank you for your contributions. At the moment, you're one of the very few that I listen to on this forum. And I'm slowly picking up some TA understanding as well. Keep it up!

i'm happy that so many people are coming out of the woodwork like this Smiley it really motivates me to continue being active in this thread, even though the price report has expired.

and as always, if you profit from me, help keep it free! consider my presentation of analysis here a donation of my time and skills. feel free to tell me what you think it's worth! (address in sig).

--arepo
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
I also want to thank you for your contributions. At the moment, you're one of the very few that I listen to on this forum. And I'm slowly picking up some TA understanding as well. Keep it up!
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
You sure? I don't understand much TA but all I see is a bunch of oscillations converging around 130.



PS Thanks for your posts, I find them both helpful and entertaining

appreciate the thanks Smiley

and yes, triangles are one of the fractal patterns found in price, so there are often triangles-within-triangles. visible on the scale you have, we do seem to be consolidating as well, and in fact we're in a smaller, flat-bottomed triangle with support at $120 and a descending top from $160. can you see it?

--arepo
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
based on some fractal analysis, the lowest feasible bottom is around $90. i suspect that's where the support will be if we break $120.

it's amazing, but we're still 'consolidating' in huge, week-long swings from the 10 April crash:

-===-



-===-

modeling this with the classic triangle consolidation pattern, we get a similar picture, but unfortunately, it's difficult to tell what the slope of the bottom support is. if it is a flat-bottomed triangle, then $90 will be the support (yellow line); if it is a symmetrical triangle, we may see prices even lower (white line) before we reach the short-term bottom.

--arepo

You sure? I don't understand much TA but all I see is a bunch of oscillations converging around 130.



PS Thanks for your posts, I find them both helpful and entertaining
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
The sell orders on clarkmoody are still creeping up. The buys are still creeping down. I am holding my base BTC's and sold some bought at higher levels as I don't want to take a chance should we retest the 50-70 range. I am hoping we do go back down there so I can double up what I sold off. If not, live and learn...

IAS

based on some fractal analysis, the lowest feasible bottom is around $90. i suspect that's where the support will be if we break $120.

it's amazing, but we're still 'consolidating' in huge, week-long swings from the 10 April crash:

-===-



-===-

modeling this with the classic triangle consolidation pattern, we get a similar picture, but unfortunately, it's difficult to tell what the slope of the bottom support is. if it is a flat-bottomed triangle, then $90 will be the support (yellow line); if it is a symmetrical triangle, we may see prices even lower (white line) before we reach the short-term bottom.

--arepo
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