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Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 107. (Read 808847 times)

hero member
Activity: 752
Merit: 500
bitcoin hodler
September 18, 2013, 01:55:31 PM
people selling for 1.6 BTC because of one "bad" dividend are plain stupid. And here I thought the weak hands already sold out...
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1012
Still wild and free
September 18, 2013, 01:42:23 PM
I want to get a steady 10% of the network, with sells as bonus. That's what was planned no?

I remember a long period of hashing at 25% or more.  Do we average the all time hash rate or what to come up with the 10% figure?

It has become more profitable to sell current tech than to mine with it.  Would you prefer that he throws all of that tech into the mine and lose substantial revenue by doing so?
No, you're right, it's better like that. But I just see Gen2 being soooo far...  Undecided
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
September 18, 2013, 01:38:45 PM
Beware that unless the author has re-coded the backend that calculates these figures, it won't be accurate after having crossed a difficulty adjustment.

oh, yes, you are right, I forgot about that.
In any case, 30 hour or less estimates are not accurate (that was the point I was trying to make). 
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1008
September 18, 2013, 01:36:44 PM
Beware that unless the author has re-coded the backend that calculates these figures, it won't be accurate after having crossed a difficulty adjustment.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
September 18, 2013, 01:34:52 PM
I want to get a steady 10% of the network, with sells as bonus. That's what was planned no?

I remember a long period of hashing at 25% or more.  Do we average the all time hash rate or what to come up with the 10% figure?

It has become more profitable to sell current tech than to mine with it.  Would you prefer that he throws all of that tech into the mine and lose substantial revenue by doing so?
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1008
September 18, 2013, 01:33:37 PM
AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?
 
The network is running at about 940 TH/s right now, ASICMiner is probably at 40-ish. That's only 4% of the network. Variance will be quite large at this level. There's an 8% chance that no blocks will be found in 16 hours if you have 4% of the network. So this will happen about once every week.
40TH?

You mean 13TH, right?
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/

or 1.6% of the whole network...

 Cry
No. I mean ~40TH/s average over the past week. Don't rely on 30h estimates when we only have 4% network share.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1012
Still wild and free
September 18, 2013, 01:30:47 PM
I want to get a steady 10% of the network, with sells as bonus. That's what was planned no?

hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 502
September 18, 2013, 01:29:23 PM
Perhaps this needs to be revisited:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3051739
member
Activity: 79
Merit: 10
September 18, 2013, 01:27:54 PM
AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?
 
The network is running at about 940 TH/s right now, ASICMiner is probably at 40-ish. That's only 4% of the network. Variance will be quite large at this level. There's an 8% chance that no blocks will be found in 16 hours if you have 4% of the network. So this will happen about once every week.
40TH?

You mean 13TH, right?
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/

or 1.6% of the whole network...

 Cry
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
September 18, 2013, 01:25:49 PM
did FC change the plans for Gen2 or something?  I don't recall that changing, so why are you guys concerned about it being "late"?

Competition is coming on the scene, sure, but which company has delivered anything, yet?  There will be SIGNIFICANT failures in the race to Gen2, guys.  I'd be surprised is even 1/3 of the proposed "competitors" actually succeed.
Bitfury seems to have already "delivered" to themselves. Bastards mining at 178 TH/s atm: https://ghash.io/
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
September 18, 2013, 01:25:27 PM
did FC change the plans for Gen2 or something?  I don't recall that changing, so why are you guys concerned about it being "late"?

Competition is coming on the scene, sure, but which company has delivered anything, yet?  There will be SIGNIFICANT failures in the race to Gen2, guys.  I'd be surprised is even 1/3 of the proposed "competitors" actually succeed.

Bitfury delivered something around 250TH/s, maybe more
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
September 18, 2013, 01:25:17 PM
Except that by selling you increase the hash rate that is outside your hands and make it harder for you to mine in the future.
Not sure if it has a noticeable effect, though, given the crazy exponential increase anyway.
so, should he mine with it for 2 months, not make ROI, and then trash it, cause then it's used equipment and has no resale value?

No, he should sell every single piece of Gen 1 as fast as possible for the highest prices possible to make the maximum profit possible off that equipment.  Come Dec, no one will be buying Gen1, anymore.  It makes no sense to hang on to it.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
September 18, 2013, 01:23:24 PM
did FC change the plans for Gen2 or something?  I don't recall that changing, so why are you guys concerned about it being "late"?

Competition is coming on the scene, sure, but which company has delivered anything, yet?  There will be SIGNIFICANT failures in the race to Gen2, guys.  I'd be surprised is even 1/3 of the proposed "competitors" actually succeed.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1012
Still wild and free
September 18, 2013, 01:22:31 PM
Gen2 is not expecting to mine significantly before December! That's not "on the horizon"!
I thought it was Nov, but even then, why would you add more of Gen1 to the mining farm, right now when you can sell it for a profit immediately?

Exactly, if you can sell H/W immediately for more BTC than you can mine with it in forever, of course he should sell it.  

Except that by selling you increase the hash rate that is outside your hands and make it harder for you to mine in the future.
Not sure if it has a noticeable effect, though, given the crazy exponential increase anyway.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
September 18, 2013, 01:20:38 PM
AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?
 

we are still at 45 TH/s as it always was (at least few last weeks). It's just that with lower percentage of the whole network, luck has greater effect.

I don't think AM has managed 45 TH/s this week, or anywhere near.
In that case you'd be wrong.

ASICMiner has found 48 blocks in the past week (from September 11th to September 17th). The network finds around 1008 blocks in a week (a bit more than that before the difficulty was adjusted). 48 of 1008 is 4.76%.

They've found the following blocks:

Quote
257330 257332 257388 257491 257503 257515 257518 257523 257532 257623 257639 257645 257678 257690 257696 257706 257737 257773 257797 257802 257868 257878 257935 257960 258020 258050 258087 258099 258103 258143 258162 258175 258242 258284 258286 258300 258347 258368 258374 258406 258419 258437 258452 258463 258473 258483 258543 258550
BUUURRRRRNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
September 18, 2013, 01:19:45 PM
Gen2 is not expecting to mine significantly before December! That's not "on the horizon"!
I thought it was Nov, but even then, why would you add more of Gen1 to the mining farm, right now when you can sell it for a profit immediately?

Exactly, if you can sell H/W immediately for more BTC than you can mine with it in forever, of course he should sell it.  
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1008
September 18, 2013, 01:19:14 PM
AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?
 

we are still at 45 TH/s as it always was (at least few last weeks). It's just that with lower percentage of the whole network, luck has greater effect.

I don't think AM has managed 45 TH/s this week, or anywhere near.
In that case you'd be wrong.

ASICMiner has found 48 blocks in the past week (from September 11th to September 17th). The network finds around 1008 blocks in a week (a bit more than that before the difficulty was adjusted). 48 of 1008 is 4.76%. 4.76% of 900 TH/s is 42.9 TH/s.

They've found the following blocks:

Quote
257330 257332 257388 257491 257503 257515 257518 257523 257532 257623 257639 257645 257678 257690 257696 257706 257737 257773 257797 257802 257868 257878 257935 257960 258020 258050 258087 258099 258103 258143 258162 258175 258242 258284 258286 258300 258347 258368 258374 258406 258419 258437 258452 258463 258473 258483 258543 258550
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
September 18, 2013, 01:16:04 PM
Gen2 is not expecting to mine significantly before December! That's not "on the horizon"!
I thought it was Nov, but even then, why would you add more of Gen1 to the mining farm, right now when you can sell it for a profit immediately?
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1008
September 18, 2013, 01:13:42 PM
AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?
 
The network is running at about 940 TH/s right now, ASICMiner is probably at 40-ish. That's only 4% of the network. Variance will be quite large at this level. There's an 8% chance that no blocks will be found in 16 hours if you have 4% of the network. So this will happen about once every week.
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