ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 118.

Vexual

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Quote from: Vycid on September 12, 2013, 12:50:11 AM

I don't know what else they might be for, especially since FC was unwilling to use those funds instead of siphoning from dividends (perhaps they are his personal funds and do not belong to AM?).

But this alone is not the reason for my bearish outlook - it's just another piece of evidence in a big puzzle.

Even if they are for expenses, why say "spend it now!"?
You're a fucking idiot, he will pay his bills when he needs to.
The company has a good amount of working capital, and you think thats bad?

Vycid

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Quote from: runeks on September 11, 2013, 10:01:16 PM

So, Vycid, have you exercised your puts yet or are you waiting still?

I've got some 3.2 puts expiring in a month that I'm unsure of whether I should exercise now or wait a bit longer.

Definitely don't exercise them if they've still got a month to exp. They've got Black-Scholes value, so you can get more money by selling them than exercising them. Your decision to sell depends on your own investment thesis, naturally.

I have not exercised, except for in-the-money options about to expire (only a couple of those). My price target is still 1.5 BTC.

Quote from: velacreations on September 11, 2013, 11:37:19 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 09:23:38 PM

Based on FC's wallet, they have not been done.

I think this is where you went wrong. You don't know what those funds are for. Sure, they MIGHT be for production, or they might be something else.

Absolutely. I don't know what else they might be for, especially since FC was unwilling to use those funds instead of siphoning from dividends (perhaps they are his personal funds and do not belong to AM?).

But this alone is not the reason for my bearish outlook - it's just another piece of evidence in a big puzzle.

Quote from: 101111 on September 11, 2013, 10:02:14 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 07:22:00 PM

Well, if I was going to try and do better, I'd probably start by spending the bitcoins I collected with the intention of spending.

You don't know what arrangements and deals FC has in place, or with whom, so STFU.

"You're speculating in a speculation thread, how dare you do such a thing."

Choke on a dick.

glendall

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Quote from: velacreations on September 11, 2013, 11:37:19 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 09:23:38 PM

Based on FC's wallet, they have not been done.

I think this is where you went wrong. You don't know what those funds are for. Sure, they MIGHT be for production, or they might be something else.

Well, no shortage of speculation in this speculation thread.

velacreations

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Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 09:23:38 PM

Based on FC's wallet, they have not been done.

I think this is where you went wrong. You don't know what those funds are for. Sure, they MIGHT be for production, or they might be something else.

Vexual

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Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 09:47:11 PM

Was that what you wanted to know?

Sure, sounds interesting.
I was really only asking to include my snide remarks

101111

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Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 07:22:00 PM

Well, if I was going to try and do better, I'd probably start by spending the bitcoins I collected with the intention of spending.

You don't know what arrangements and deals FC has in place, or with whom, so STFU.

runeks

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So, Vycid, have you exercised your puts yet or are you waiting still?

I've got some 3.2 puts expiring in a month that I'm unsure of whether I should exercise now or wait a bit longer.

Vycid

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Quote from: Vexual on September 11, 2013, 09:34:16 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 09:23:38 PM

Anything else you'd like to misinterpret?

You could clarify one more thing for me...
As a semiconductor process engineer, what was your role?
Now this is pure speculation from my own imagination(a disclaimer you are free to use), but did you sit at a pick and place machine, and call the supervisor if any lights started flashing?

I'm sure he got sick of you calling him BEFORE the lights started flashing, with a hunch.

LOL. You're not even close. I do process development for wafer fabrication equipment - I can't get much more specific than that without giving away my company, which I am not inclined to do (there are only a handful of WFE companies in the world).

Suffice to say I was involved with the engineering development of equipment that has touched almost every modern electronic device you own (which is a natural consequence of there being only a handful of WFE companies I suppose).

And I actually get paid to express my hunches about problems. Was that what you wanted to know?

Vexual

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Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 09:23:38 PM

Anything else you'd like to misinterpret?

You could clarify one more thing for me...
As a semiconductor process engineer, what was your role?
Now this is pure speculation from my own imagination(a disclaimer you are free to use), but did you sit at a pick and place machine, and call the supervisor if any lights started flashing?

I'm sure he got sick of you calling him BEFORE the lights started flashing, with a hunch.

Vycid

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Quote from: Vexual on September 11, 2013, 08:48:04 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 08:42:43 PM

Quote from: Vexual on September 11, 2013, 08:22:03 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 07:22:00 PM

Well, if I was going to try and do better, I'd probably start by spending the bitcoins I collected with the intention of spending.

You think you could improve friedcat's business? You are delusional.

Either you are consistently and intentionally misinterpreting very clear statements, or you have the reading comprehension of a first-grader.

What are you going to spend them on genius? You have next to no knowledge of the development and manufacturing plans.
So by trying to do better you would not be attempting to improve the business?

I do not think I could improve his business. I am not a businessman. There is quite possibly a problem that I could not fix that will make Gen 2 late.

I am saying - clearly, I believe - that if I (or anyone) was to meet December delivery, these would be some of the things that need doing.

Based on FC's wallet, they have not been done.

Anything else you'd like to misinterpret?

Vexual

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To reiterate, you have no knowlegde of what ASICMINER has paid for, and where they are at with development, so why suggest they need to start trading coins to pay invoices? I think friedcat knows his business better than you, despite whatever semiconductor work you have done in the past.

Vexual

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You misunderstand the clarification I'm looing for. Why was I wrong to assume by trying to do better, that meant improving the business?

Vycid

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Quote from: Vexual on September 11, 2013, 09:10:23 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 08:58:31 PM

I actually happen to be a semiconductor process engineer, so watch your claims here.

Foundries usually expect up-front payment from low volume, one-off customers like Friedcat. Assuming he's taped out his design and verified e-beam samples, he needs to open his checkbook for photomask sets, at the very least. He probably needs to pay for the chip batches also.

If he hasn't verified his e-beam samples, I suspect he needs to do so within the next couple of weeks to meet a December deployment deadline. If he's skipping e-beam testing, all the more reason he should be ordering the maska already.

Then there's the matter of assembly. Maybe he's got some buddies doing his assembly, but if so I'm a little surprised regarding his hubris about price advantage ("invincible"), since anyone could get the same price simply by being a businessman in China.

If he is doing it in-house, then he needs pick and place machines and reflow ovens and so on, because he needs to vastly increase production. That kind of equipment costs money.

Quote from: Vexual on September 11, 2013, 08:48:04 PM

So by trying to do better you would not be attempting to improve the business?

Can you explain whats wrong with my comprehansion here?

Sure thing.

IF those things are not happening, there will be no full-scale Gen 2 by December. That would fit the fact he doesn't seem to be spending money.

Are we understanding any better?

Vexual

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Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 08:58:31 PM

I actually happen to be a semiconductor process engineer, so watch your claims here.

Foundries usually expect up-front payment from low volume, one-off customers like Friedcat. Assuming he's taped out his design and verified e-beam samples, he needs to open his checkbook for photomask sets, at the very least. He probably needs to pay for the chip batches also.

If he hasn't verified his e-beam samples, I suspect he needs to do so within the next couple of weeks to meet a December deployment deadline. If he's skipping e-beam testing, all the more reason he should be ordering the maska already.

Then there's the matter of assembly. Maybe he's got some buddies doing his assembly, but if so I'm a little surprised regarding his hubris about price advantage ("invincible"), since anyone could get the same price simply by being a businessman in China.

If he is doing it in-house, then he needs pick and place machines and reflow ovens and so on, because he needs to vastly increase production. That kind of equipment costs money.

Quote from: Vexual on September 11, 2013, 08:48:04 PM

So by trying to do better you would not be attempting to improve the business?

Can you explain whats wrong with my comprehension here?

Vycid

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Quote from: Vexual on September 11, 2013, 08:48:04 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 08:42:43 PM

Quote from: Vexual on September 11, 2013, 08:22:03 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 07:22:00 PM

Well, if I was going to try and do better, I'd probably start by spending the bitcoins I collected with the intention of spending.

You think you could improve friedcat's business? You are delusional.

Either you are consistently and intentionally misinterpreting very clear statements, or you have the reading comprehension of a first-grader.

What are you going to spend them on genius? You have next to no knowledge of the development and manufacturing plans.
So by trying to do better you would not be attempting to improve the business?

I actually happen to be a semiconductor process engineer, so watch your claims here.

Foundries usually expect up-front payment from low volume, one-off customers like Friedcat. Assuming he's taped out his design and verified e-beam samples, he needs to open his checkbook for photomask sets, at the very least. He probably needs to pay for the chip batches also.

If he hasn't verified his e-beam samples, I suspect he needs to do so within the next couple of weeks to meet a December deployment deadline. If he's skipping e-beam testing, all the more reason he should be ordering the masks already.

Then there's the matter of assembly. Maybe he's got some buddies doing his assembly, but if so I'm a little surprised regarding his hubris about price advantage ("invincible"), since anyone could get the same price simply by being a businessman in China.

If he is doing it in-house, then he needs pick and place machines and reflow ovens and so on, because he needs to vastly increase production. That kind of equipment costs money.

Vexual

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Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 08:42:43 PM

Quote from: Vexual on September 11, 2013, 08:22:03 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 07:22:00 PM

Well, if I was going to try and do better, I'd probably start by spending the bitcoins I collected with the intention of spending.

You think you could improve friedcat's business? You are delusional.

Either you are consistently and intentionally misinterpreting very clear statements, or you have the reading comprehension of a first-grader.

What are you going to spend them on genius? You have next to no knowledge of the development and manufacturing plans.
So by trying to do better you would not be attempting to improve the business?

Vycid

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♫ the AM bear who cares ♫

Quote from: Vexual on September 11, 2013, 08:22:03 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 07:22:00 PM

Well, if I was going to try and do better, I'd probably start by spending the bitcoins I collected with the intention of spending.

You think you could improve friedcat's business? You are delusional.

Either you are consistently and intentionally misinterpreting very clear statements, or you have the reading comprehension of a first-grader.

Vexual

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Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 07:22:00 PM

Well, if I was going to try and do better, I'd probably start by spending the bitcoins I collected with the intention of spending.

You think you could improve friedcat's business? You are delusional.

Vycid

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Quote from: chriswilmer on September 11, 2013, 07:41:06 PM

Quote from: velacreations on September 11, 2013, 07:38:45 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 07:22:00 PM

Well, if I was going to try and do better, I'd probably start by spending the bitcoins I collected with the intention of spending.

we don't know that those are what he intends to spend.

he might be saving up for more. how much does 10 PT/s cost?

It could be collateral. If you are bullish on bitcoin (which I am sure Friedcat is), you would probably want to borrow in RMB and hold bitcoin if you can.

No bank would accept bitcoin as collateral on the equivalent of a $1M+ loan, especially when the revenue for repayment ALSO depends on the stability of BTC/USD.

chriswilmer

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Quote from: velacreations on September 11, 2013, 07:38:45 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 11, 2013, 07:22:00 PM

Well, if I was going to try and do better, I'd probably start by spending the bitcoins I collected with the intention of spending.

we don't know that those are what he intends to spend.

he might be saving up for more. how much does 10 PT/s cost?

It could be collateral. If you are bullish on bitcoin (which I am sure Friedcat is), you would probably want to borrow in RMB and hold bitcoin if you can.

Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 118. (Read 808757 times)