Starting speculation on the divs ....
I've been paying close attention to the group buy threads here (AM related) as well as the mining/div address. Here's an interesting fact... There's atleast 1600 BTC worth of sales here... even more if we count the other group buys, but here's how I reached that:
- Follow CannaryInTheMine's coupon thread, his payment address is 15HJTCu5d87FMdczKJ2fLXHj4t3LcT77hn
- He is forward these to FC to address 1ZGtnxLWYVDbUVXPQLTRqnF6Bv6u2BMf8 (other payments from GB's also ended here, hence that conclusion). This address currently has 1,670 BTC
- 1LNKmBRvC3Tmk56gPV6etmxqSzpP1La2Bf and 1Lo6q72PBDrxm7cDKrxze3hmF3p2gkbeJe are two other addresses belonging to FC/ASICMINER where the GB payments were followed to... EACH having 315 BTC
~3700 BTC counted so far. There is definitely going to be some percentage reserved for development and other costs... but that along with the ~2400 BTC from mining, we should have a pretty good dividend this week.
Thanks for the math. (3700+2400)/400000 would land us at 0.01525 for a pretty solid week. I'm speculating 0.018 because it's usually easier to underestimate revenue than overestimate.
Of course FC may retain an indefinite amount, so the whole thing is a crapshoot really.
I hope not, anything over 0.015 is excessive right now. I would take 0.01/share for the next several weeks if it means ensuring 2nd generation chips are ready for October/November. I'm certain the total network hash rate will be ~2 PH/s before 2013 closes.
Marginal hashrate increase is cheaper than you realize... I estimate that FC is paying about $1.50/GH (about $15/blade) for Gen 1, not counting NRE.
Discounting Gen 2 NRE (which Friedcat is more than competent enough to have anticipated), the cost will likely be half or less per GH. If he needs to add an additional 500 TH because we are over projections, I couldn't imagine that costing much more than another half million, including hosting arrangements (the only complicating factor being his ability to scale production).
A half million additional is ~4200 BTC, which he's probably close to reaching if he hasn't already.
If he continues to siphon funds, I'd read that as an indication that things aren't on target with the chip development, and that he's going to have to ramp hardware output to compensate.
Then again, without regular financial statements (I'm using one from quite a while back) I can't do this analysis properly and I'm talking out my butt far more than usual.
. This time to critical levels something like 30TH or something....