ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 147.

stripykitteh

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Quote from: velacreations on August 20, 2013, 08:24:14 PM

Quote from: mechs on August 20, 2013, 08:16:30 PM

Even a good dividend won't keep this up with the network percentage dropping and all these competitors shipping in the fourth quarter of 2013. Last I checked, ASICMiner on;y 8% of total network hash: http://blockchain.info/pools

that's at 30 TH/s, and they were at 60 TH/s a week ago. So, either they lost half the farm, or we only know about half of their hash rate right now.

At 60 TH/s, they would be at ~13% of the network.

An update from FC could provide enough information for shareholders to rally behind AM against the "competitors" that hope to ship this quarter.

Here's a "competitor":

https://ghash.io/

Most of this has come online in the last couple of weeks. I think believing that AM doesn't have real competition is an idea that's a couple of months out of date.

freedomno1

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Quote from: lophie on August 20, 2013, 07:55:17 PM

Quote from: freedomno1 on August 20, 2013, 07:43:55 PM

Trusts the escrows hunch Tongue

lol that is more like inside information than trusting a hunch Tongue

Perhaps it is John though
For the next few weeks this will be the trend
WWJD (John Do)

If we go by last months financials they had a lot of money in materials subdivide that into units how many units can they produce.
This comes down to scale in the end and who has the largest scale will control the most network
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Al1fvFT7Sd5bdEthNEpIWWxpcW90RFBQOFZ6aFlxT0E#gid=0

August-September: Deploy/sell all hashpower arriving in July and early August.
(Seems consistent with what we are seeing)

September-November: Deploy/sell the hashpower ordered at early July.
(Nearing the beginning of September not sure where we are at for this segment three months likely adding more power to their units)

November-December: Experimental products of 2nd-gen chips and modular large-scale deployment solutions.
(Theoretical Competitors arrive and deliver by this stage on large scales as well as AM promotion to true competition the ASIC efficiency battle begins )

Vycid

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Quote from: velacreations on August 20, 2013, 08:24:14 PM

Quote from: mechs on August 20, 2013, 08:16:30 PM

Even a good dividend won't keep this up with the network percentage dropping and all these competitors shipping in the fourth quarter of 2013. Last I checked, ASICMiner on;y 8% of total network hash: http://blockchain.info/pools

that's at 30 TH/s, and they were at 60 TH/s a week ago. So, either they lost half the farm, or we only know about half of their hash rate right now.

At 60 TH/s, they would be at ~13% of the network.

An update from FC could provide enough information for shareholders to rally behind AM against the "competitors" that hope to ship this quarter.

Really? 'Competitors' is in quotes? You're certain not a SINGLE ONE poses a threat? Is AM a cult or a company?

BTW, it's not price fixing just because someone has realized it's long past time to liquidate their position. Manipulation is not the only reason someone would sell, sorry to break it to you. If he was trying to crash the market he'd be dumping all at once, not in digestible batches.

The sooner you recognize the trend, the less money you lose. Cut losses swiftly if you don't want to end up a bagholder.

This is your warning. It's "I told you so" from here on.

velacreations

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Quote from: mechs on August 20, 2013, 08:16:30 PM

Even a good dividend won't keep this up with the network percentage dropping and all these competitors shipping in the fourth quarter of 2013. Last I checked, ASICMiner on;y 8% of total network hash: http://blockchain.info/pools

Looking at that closer, the hash rate is going up!

It was 30 TH/s yesterday, 6%, today at 8%, 40 TH/s. Interesting...

superduh

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TBH i want the price to be 2 so i can buy up some cheap shares -

velacreations

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Quote from: mechs on August 20, 2013, 08:16:30 PM

Even a good dividend won't keep this up with the network percentage dropping and all these competitors shipping in the fourth quarter of 2013. Last I checked, ASICMiner on;y 8% of total network hash: http://blockchain.info/pools

that's at 30 TH/s, and they were at 60 TH/s a week ago. So, either they lost half the farm, or we only know about half of their hash rate right now.

At 60 TH/s, they would be at ~13% of the network.

An update from FC could provide enough information for shareholders to rally behind AM against the "competitors" that hope to ship this quarter.

mechs

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Quote from: velacreations on August 20, 2013, 07:58:26 PM

Quote from: freedomno1 on August 20, 2013, 07:43:55 PM

Well I never got why the price has been dropping before dividends every week just makes for a nice buying opportunity I guess Eb3 might be the factor this week.

Time to speculate the dividends
Guesses around 0.02 again
JohnK said group buys were coming this week or next should become part of dividends then.
Trusts the escrows hunch Tongue

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2934529
Some group buys finish this week as well I believe.
Mining seems to be low but factor in leasing and difficulty increasing and the impact it has gets tricky.

I think we may see .03. Group buys are still going on, but retailers have been selling the old blades and USBs.

No one knows what is going on with the mining, and I hope we get an update this week on that. There are lots of opportunities as far as profit potential, and I wouldn't rule anything out at this stage.

One thing is for certain, if the dividend fails to impress, the share price might slump as far as 3.2, and it will be a long climb back up to 4. I think we'll need 2 weeks of good dividends plus an good update from FC to break the downtrend. There's too much market manipulation and people going to Labcon to maintain a decent AM price right now.

I have been impressed that despite the trader that keeps filling buy orders down to 3.5, the demand creeps back towards 3.7 every day. That's a good sign, but it's still too weak to keep the price up until we get some good news and profits.

Even a good dividend won't keep this up with the network percentage dropping and all these competitors shipping in the fourth quarter of 2013. Last I checked, ASICMiner on;y 8% of total network hash: http://blockchain.info/pools

velacreations

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Quote from: freedomno1 on August 20, 2013, 07:43:55 PM

Well I never got why the price has been dropping before dividends every week just makes for a nice buying opportunity I guess Eb3 might be the factor this week.

Time to speculate the dividends
Guesses around 0.02 again
JohnK said group buys were coming this week or next should become part of dividends then.
Trusts the escrows hunch Tongue

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2934529
Some group buys finish this week as well I believe.
Mining seems to be low but factor in leasing and difficulty increasing and the impact it has gets tricky.

I think we may see .03. Group buys are still going on, but retailers have been selling the old blades and USBs.

No one knows what is going on with the mining, and I hope we get an update this week on that. There are lots of opportunities as far as profit potential, and I wouldn't rule anything out at this stage.

One thing is for certain, if the dividend fails to impress, the share price might slump as far as 3.2, and it will be a long climb back up to 4. I think we'll need 2 weeks of good dividends plus an good update from FC to break the downtrend. There's too much market manipulation and people going to Labcon to maintain a decent AM price right now.

I have been impressed that despite the trader that keeps filling buy orders down to 3.5, the demand creeps back towards 3.7 every day. That's a good sign, but it's still too weak to keep the price up until we get some good news and profits.

lophie

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Quote from: freedomno1 on August 20, 2013, 07:43:55 PM

Trusts the escrows hunch Tongue

lol that is more like inside information than trusting a hunch Tongue

freedomno1

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Learning the troll avoidance button :)

Well I never got why the price has been dropping before dividends every week just makes for a nice buying opportunity I guess Eb3 might be the factor this week.

Time to speculate the dividends
Guesses around 0.02 again
JohnK said group buys were coming this week or next should become part of dividends then.
Trusts the escrows hunch Tongue

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2934529
Some group buys finish this week as well I believe.
Mining seems to be low but factor in leasing and difficulty increasing and the impact it has gets tricky.

velacreations

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Quote from: AMuppInTime on August 20, 2013, 07:24:44 PM

Unfortunately Bitcoins are by nature against price fixing... I'd suggest loading up on cheap shares instead.

I'm all in, already, but I wonder, what about bitcoin makes it against price fixing? I can certainly see price manipulation happen on the exchange on a daily basis, and I don't see anything about bitcoin naturally opposes that. Can you explain that point a bit?

velacreations

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Quote from: stripykitteh on August 20, 2013, 06:51:17 PM

Direct shares are indeed not very liquid.

at these prices, neither are PT shares.

AMuppInTime

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Quote from: velacreations on August 20, 2013, 05:41:02 PM

Quote from: freedomno1 on August 20, 2013, 04:40:46 PM

Recently it seems that the speculation thread is more organized than the AM thread Wink

Labcoin Thread Speculating AM value he-he
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=263445.2600

+1 I saw that. Pretty funny with VE telling them to sell all of their AM to buy Labcon.

That's called a "pump and dump" fellas.

In related news, Mr "fell every buy order" is at it again, just pushed the price to 3.46

Can we all agree to be mature and not follow the price down this time?

Unfortunately Bitcoins are by nature against price fixing... I'd suggest loading up on cheap shares instead.

stripykitteh

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Quote from: lophie on August 20, 2013, 04:44:47 PM

Guys I want to move direct shares to btct.co, sent an email as well as a pm to FC. In your own experiences, How long would it take to expect a response?

I think he has recently been doing them once a week, on a weekend. So if you asked on Monday it might not be until Sunday.

Direct shares are indeed not very liquid.

velacreations

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Quote from: lophie on August 20, 2013, 04:44:47 PM

Guys I want to move direct shares to btct.co, sent an email as well as a pm to FC. In your own experiences, How long would it take to expect a response?

I think he typically deals with this stuff just once a week, and if I recall, my last share transfer happened right after dividends.

velacreations

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Quote from: freedomno1 on August 20, 2013, 04:40:46 PM

Recently it seems that the speculation thread is more organized than the AM thread Wink

Labcoin Thread Speculating AM value he-he
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=263445.2600

+1 I saw that. Pretty funny with VE telling them to sell all of their AM to buy Labcon.

That's called a "pump and dump" fellas.

In related news, Mr "fell every buy order" is at it again, just pushed the price to 3.46

Can we all agree to be mature and not follow the price down this time?

CMMPro

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A week.

lophie

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Guys I want to move direct shares to btct.co, sent an email as well as a pm to FC. In your own experiences, How long would it take to expect a response?

freedomno1

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Learning the troll avoidance button :)

Recently it seems that the speculation thread is more organized than the AM thread Wink

Labcoin Thread Speculating AM value he-he
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=263445.2600

AMuppInTime

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Quote

/it might be worthwhile to track HW many of those shares remain/ move and how that correlates to the sales on BTCTC...

that's a good idea. How do we do that?

Track divs paid to assumed addresses.

Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 147. (Read 808757 times)