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Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 148. (Read 808757 times)

sr. member
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Merit: 250
August 20, 2013, 04:08:34 PM
my reply from the other thread:

That trader most likely has an ongoing deal with the 3500+ share seller (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/auction-3559-asicminer-shares-direct-276891) for around 3.5 per share and is playing an arbitrage game by selling shares over 3.6 on BTC and buying them for 3.5/transferring them in.

I don't think he's transferring them in, but he might be doing some sort of arbitrage like that.  Transferring in takes longer than a day, and unless it is burnside/FC themselves, I doubt it would work exactly like that.

But, it could be someone who has a lot of shares already on the exchange, and is selling his shares in exchange for direct shares.

Quote
/it might be worthwhile to track HW many of those shares remain/ move and how that correlates to the sales on BTCTC...
that's a good idea.  How do we do that?
donator
Activity: 290
Merit: 250
August 20, 2013, 03:49:10 PM
(Paste from AM thread - relevant to speculation)
-there seem to be regular sales every nights between 3.7-3.6-

That trader most likely has an ongoing deal with the 3500+ share seller (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/auction-3559-asicminer-shares-direct-276891) for around 3.5 per share and is playing an arbitrage game by selling shares over 3.6 on BTC and buying them for 3.5/transferring them in.

/it might be worthwhile to track HW many of those shares remain/ move and how that correlates to the sales on BTCTC...
sr. member
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August 19, 2013, 08:19:07 PM
Not just Labcoin.

There is quite a few people that sold their shares in preparation for the announcements of the new generation of mining rigs, but are now disappointed due to the price per GH/s for late delivery.

We might see an influx of BTC from those ppl buying back shares or just looking for a better return on investment than KnC, Bitfurry, HashFast, Cointerra and xCrowd.

It seems like 28nm tech is just too expensive per GH/s for a good ROI and a lot of people wont break even.

EDIT: Spelling


sr. member
Activity: 476
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August 19, 2013, 05:55:31 PM
better move those sell orders, guys, the labcoin crowd is coming back....
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
August 18, 2013, 08:03:14 PM
does anyone have a list of group buy and/or retailer addresses that we could peak at to see approx sales over the past week?
legendary
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August 18, 2013, 07:21:46 PM
If you follow the wallet address (from this past week's GB) from both CannaryInTheMine and Sonic, it seems that they got close to ~4000 BTC, while they sent out only a small portion of that to FC. I was able to easily follow Cannary's out going transaction to FC's dividend sending address. There was only 1500 BTC sent from Cannary out of approx. 3500 collected so far.

It's worth noting that Canary and other resellers are also collecting funds for shipping (express/priority in some cases), which would not be sent to friedcat.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
August 18, 2013, 04:25:58 PM
looks like price is dipping a bit, low demand, but I expect to see it start back up tomorrow ahead of the dividend this week.
I think it will not find support until after the dividend announced and whether it beats or disapoints

It seems to be holding around 3.81, but I agree, people want to see what the dividends are going to be.  I expect that they will be good this week, as the group buys and blade sales should be going through.  The hash rate is down, which might hurt mining income, but there might be something going on with that, cause rumors are that FC is testing the leasing plan.

In any case, if dividends are above .03, I expect the share price to go past 4.25 quickly.
full member
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August 18, 2013, 03:19:20 PM
looks like price is dipping a bit, low demand, but I expect to see it start back up tomorrow ahead of the dividend this week.
I think it will not find support until after the dividend announced and whether it beats or disapoints
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
August 18, 2013, 11:45:05 AM
looks like price is dipping a bit, low demand, but I expect to see it start back up tomorrow ahead of the dividend this week.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
August 17, 2013, 06:52:08 PM
I posted this on the main AM discussion, but let's talk about it here, too.  I think this may make FC's "franchising" concept more important and profitable than we first imagined:

This is a very interesting topic.   That is why I wonder.   It is highly likely that the network is 1,000 Th/s (1,000,000 GH/s) in 45 days from now.
So, say you want to be a player like friedcat and have 20%.   With avalon chips drawing 9W per Gh/s, you need 900 kw just to power the avalons to get 10% of the market.  How you going to do that?  lot's of buildings with that power coming in?   How you going to distribute the power?   Oh, and guess how much heat 900 kW of power puts out when it goes into something that basically just heats up?   But to get 20% you need 1800kW PLUS cooling.    Even at 1W, it is an enormous undertaking.    It will be cool to see how people over come these hurdles.   Someone is going to have 500 TH/s rolled out by November?   They best call the electric company now because ordering new transformers takes a while. 

What they are saying is right.  If you want 10% of the network in September, you will need almost 900kW of power lined up and ready to go.  I don't think people realize how big of a deal that really is to get that much power online in that time frame.  It's not going to be easy and/or cheap.

If you already have a datacenter and power infrastructure in place, then expanding is much easier than building from scratch.  AM's first mover advantage may last longer than anyone anticipates because of these limitations.

At the very least, you won't see a new entity taking 10% of the network in the next 2 months.

tl;dr - getting the chips is the easy part (and they still don't even have that)
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
August 17, 2013, 06:39:00 PM
Did anyone see AM on RT? http://youtu.be/LC3ZHRF_8kQ

Well I saw it first live then TAT shared a youtube video a few pages back which I promptly moved to press so yes Smiley

oh sorry, I missed it where TAT shared it.
legendary
Activity: 1806
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Learning the troll avoidance button :)
August 17, 2013, 12:41:53 PM
Did anyone see AM on RT? http://youtu.be/LC3ZHRF_8kQ

Well I saw it first live then TAT shared a youtube video a few pages back which I promptly moved to press so yes Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
August 17, 2013, 10:08:36 AM
Did anyone see AM on RT? http://youtu.be/LC3ZHRF_8kQ
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
★☆★777Coin★☆★
August 17, 2013, 09:02:35 AM
there's not much sell pressure at the current prices.  I haven't seen many buy orders get filled today.  Are people waiting for a bump with the larger dividends this week?

yes many peoples waiting and expecting this one to be happen soon
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
August 16, 2013, 03:05:00 PM
there's not much sell pressure at the current prices.  I haven't seen many buy orders get filled today.  Are people waiting for a bump with the larger dividends this week?
full member
Activity: 180
Merit: 100
August 14, 2013, 05:36:10 PM
I think you are on the right track, next week we should have most if not all of the HW sales in. I doubt we'll se a single large payout instead multiple of 0.027 - 0.033 payouts

why would they break it into smaller payouts like that?

In the past, FC only used funds once the items have shipped.

No idea. If I were to guess, maybe it is based on delivery (i.e. 50% now, 50% when the GB items ship).
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
August 14, 2013, 04:58:07 PM
I think you are on the right track, next week we should have most if not all of the HW sales in. I doubt we'll se a single large payout instead multiple of 0.027 - 0.033 payouts

why would they break it into smaller payouts like that?

In the past, FC only used funds once the items have shipped.
full member
Activity: 180
Merit: 100
August 14, 2013, 04:43:41 PM
I think resellers have minimum orders, and those funds are released to the dividends once those orders are shipped.  I don't know how many units have been shipped, but I doubt everything has shipped out.

This - I think that only a small part of the hardware sale funds are in yet so far. We'll have to wait 1-2 weeks before they're actually sent to the div wallet I guess...
The group buys should get their orders in this weekend, and I expect the first round of reseller orders to be shipped by this weekend.  So, it is possible that next week's dividend has all of those sales in it, but it may just have resellers, and then the next week will have the group buy.

Or, at least, that's what I'm guessing.

In any case, next week's dividend should be good, and the week after even better.

If you follow the wallet address (from this past week's GB) from both CannaryInTheMine and Sonic, it seems that they got close to ~4000 BTC, while they sent out only a small portion of that to FC. I was able to easily follow Cannary's out going transaction to FC's dividend sending address. There was only 1500 BTC sent from Cannary out of approx. 3500 collected so far.

I think you are on the right track, next week we should have most if not all of the HW sales in. I doubt we'll se a single large payout instead multiple of 0.027 - 0.033 payouts
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
★☆★777Coin★☆★
August 14, 2013, 04:11:34 PM
It is likely that they are pushing stock-on-hand into the mine rather than trying to sell it (obv new blades coming in a few weeks).
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
August 14, 2013, 04:03:54 PM
I think resellers have minimum orders, and those funds are released to the dividends once those orders are shipped.  I don't know how many units have been shipped, but I doubt everything has shipped out.

This - I think that only a small part of the hardware sale funds are in yet so far. We'll have to wait 1-2 weeks before they're actually sent to the div wallet I guess...
The group buys should get their orders in this weekend, and I expect the first round of reseller orders to be shipped by this weekend.  So, it is possible that next week's dividend has all of those sales in it, but it may just have resellers, and then the next week will have the group buy.

Or, at least, that's what I'm guessing.

In any case, next week's dividend should be good, and the week after even better.
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