Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 170. (Read 808905 times)

Any security in particular?

Please don't say ActiveMining!

I've been watching the realtime trade monitor on btct.co.  It's actually been from people selling their ASICMINER-PT shares and TAT-ASICMINER shares and then immediately purchasing another security.

Yea, not enjoying this week as I took my position a little high.  Not that I'm concerned about the long term, but I do enjoy my passthrough daytrading.

share price drifting down a bit, I guess it's just post-dividend, pre-announcement slump.

I did exactly the same math, so we think exactly the same

hmm, Thanks this makes alot of sense. But still something smells fishy..... anyways not planning on selling my position in AM anytime soon. Just sold a few shares for financial reasons.

Pretty recently been a fun day watching it haha no real starting point
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sec-charges-bitcoin-savings-and-trust-btcst-as-ponzi-scheme-261235

Also he will not be closing it mumble and the main AM thread has a bit of discussion as well

I think the AM price had it's drop already but the real movement was in Basic wish my btc was around btct then 0.13
The yield is a lot higher than Cognitive now and with their mining its still not bad but still 0.13 lol

Wait a minute, where did this discussion happen?

Ooh, that's why someone liquidated their BITVPS position too, I was wondering...

Lophie,

Based on tracking the AM price the last month, it seems buyers and holders of AM stock are now comfortable with a 25% dividend yield with some additives or subtractions for forward earnings potential.

With dividend around 0.024 holding steady, and a safe bet to expect going forward, this yield supports a fair valuation of 4.992 btc per share. Thats not too far away from where we are now.

If we use the average of the last 4 dividends (0.02275) to refine the estimates, fair valuation sits just above 4.7. Until the recent flash crash thats exactly where the share price has been

As AM continues to (hopefully) deliver higher dividends, and investor confidence grows thereby supporting lower acceptable dividend yields given the added feeling of security holding AM shares , we can expect this to support even higher share prices than what we're seeing now.

For now i personally value AM between 4.2-5btc per share. Anything below this range is a great buy, anything above is overvalued. If investor risk tolerance goes up and/or dividends hold at an average 0.03 (i consider this combination as a reasonable 'absolute best case scenario' without exuberance) i'd shift valuation to somewhere between 6-7 btc per share. Thats a solid 20-30% possible capital gain on current prices whilst generating a yield that will almost 'pay off' the total invested capital before the next block reward halving. Barring AM dropping the ball on keeping up with the competition or a severe depression in btc/usd i expect buying pressure to continue

Guys I think I missed something in the two weeks I was busy away from the forums. I completely understand why ASICMINER jumped from IPO price to 3-3.2BTC, Most if not all of us did extensive calculations to see if the price is sustainable considering other factors like MH per share and the compititors and Div percentage, ROI, etc.

I don't see anything changing so the price would shoot to 4.5++. So did anything happen while I was away? (aside of distributes and franchising the chips)

I really like that term and will use to it describe whenever a stock drops then rebounds (more or less stably) to higher than it was before it dropped.

It's a fried cat bounce xD
Those go higher with every bounce

hahaha that's for sure but they're already crying now that it's back up to over 4.6!

what a world

can you please wish that 1,000 btc drops into my wallet?

ehm nice price drop...dont know why but i like it...
just thought yesterday that it would be nice if they drop to 4BTC so i can buy some...my wish came true

lol everyone selling at 4 or 4.2 are gonna cry in about 2 weeks when the blades send dividends through the roof!

yeah, I've been seeing a lot of that.  By the time my coins confirm, the price will be back to 4.9 

Just watched some lucky SOB pick up 600 passthrough shares on Havelock at 0.041 each

oh look, it's gone... 

looks like some folks may have used the fake news as a way to manipulate a bit.  Or, I guess it can just all be panic.  Either way, I wish I was the one buying at 4.1!!