Author

Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 190. (Read 808905 times)

legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1004
July 10, 2013, 10:56:43 AM


Crazy expensive.

I wish you people who don't seem to be capable of basic maths would stop spreading complete and utter bullshit in the hopes of pumping and dumping.

10 BTC for a 5 Gh/s miner is shite. Jalapenos and K16s are a third of that price at the current exchange rate. The mini Blade would have to mine about 6.5 BTC before a Jalapeno or K16 ordered today actually shipped. Based on a difficulty of 25,590,229 (about 20% increase), the mini Blade would earn 0.092 BTC per day. By keeping the difficulty constant, it would take 66 days to mine 6.5 BTC. If we assume the difficulty increase by 15% per pound, then we get the following:

0.0982 * 12 = 1.1784
0.0851 * 12 = 1.0212
0.0740 * 12 = 0.888
0.0643 * 12 = 0.7716
0.0559 * 12 = 0.6708
0.0559 * 12 = 0.6708
0.0425 * 12 = 0.51
0.0369 * 12 = 0.4428
0.0321 * 12 = 0.3852

That's 6.5388 BTC over the next 108 days after this coming difficulty increase.

Once again, ASICMiner has set its prices to rip off gullible idiots who can't count and the competition, even though they're not shipping from the shelf yet, is still more profitable.

Oh look!  It's Mabsark posting about how AM products are overpriced and that its competition is far superior.  Must be div day!

If I'm wrong, then show me how I'm wrong.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1004
July 10, 2013, 10:55:31 AM
He might want to consider using a price of at least $1900.00 for a Jalapeno because that is what it costs currently to get your hands on one through the secondary market.

Interesting. That means a Jalapeño delivered immediately is actually around 25 BTC, which means that the new AM Mini-Blade will be much, much cheaper.

What do you think about that, Mabsark?

25 BTC for a Jalapeno is taking the piss.
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
You can't kill math.
July 10, 2013, 10:28:00 AM
What's your Div prediction for today, Eric?

Couldn't tell ya vela. Before last week's div, I figured this week to be lower due to the gap for blade sales. I'm feelin' 0.0189...

I've actually been away since Friday (returning from Japan). I don't think I missed much. Let me try anyway...

July 10 - Modest ~0.0189
July 17 - Epic 0.035+
July 24 - Good ~0.032
July 31 - Decent ~0.022
# Cautious of competitor August/September promises
August 7 - Modest ~0.019
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
July 10, 2013, 09:59:32 AM
What's your Div prediction for today, Eric?
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
You can't kill math.
July 10, 2013, 09:56:49 AM
What do you think about that, Mabsark?
please don't feed the troll...
This.

Mabsark lives in fantasy land where promises from every company have equal bearing devoid of reputability.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
July 10, 2013, 09:52:28 AM
What do you think about that, Mabsark?
please don't feed the troll...
sr. member
Activity: 362
Merit: 250
July 10, 2013, 09:46:54 AM
He might want to consider using a price of at least $1900.00 for a Jalapeno because that is what it costs currently to get your hands on one through the secondary market.

Interesting. That means a Jalapeño delivered immediately is actually around 25 BTC, which means that the new AM Mini-Blade will be much, much cheaper.

What do you think about that, Mabsark?
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 502
July 10, 2013, 09:43:12 AM
He might want to consider using a price of at least $1900.00 for a Jalapeno because that is what it costs currently to get your hands on one through the secondary market.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Butterfly-labs-IN-HAND-NOT-PREORDER-5-GHash-Jalapeno-Bitcoin-Miner-/251300341157?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3a82aae5a5
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
July 10, 2013, 09:40:22 AM
BFL will ship in two weeks, and AM will be history... I promise!

(buys cheap shares)
full member
Activity: 231
Merit: 100
July 10, 2013, 09:37:06 AM


Crazy expensive.

I wish you people who don't seem to be capable of basic maths would stop spreading complete and utter bullshit in the hopes of pumping and dumping.

10 BTC for a 5 Gh/s miner is shite. Jalapenos and K16s are a third of that price at the current exchange rate. The mini Blade would have to mine about 6.5 BTC before a Jalapeno or K16 ordered today actually shipped. Based on a difficulty of 25,590,229 (about 20% increase), the mini Blade would earn 0.092 BTC per day. By keeping the difficulty constant, it would take 66 days to mine 6.5 BTC. If we assume the difficulty increase by 15% per pound, then we get the following:

0.0982 * 12 = 1.1784
0.0851 * 12 = 1.0212
0.0740 * 12 = 0.888
0.0643 * 12 = 0.7716
0.0559 * 12 = 0.6708
0.0559 * 12 = 0.6708
0.0425 * 12 = 0.51
0.0369 * 12 = 0.4428
0.0321 * 12 = 0.3852

That's 6.5388 BTC over the next 108 days after this coming difficulty increase.

Once again, ASICMiner has set its prices to rip off gullible idiots who can't count and the competition, even though they're not shipping from the shelf yet, is still more profitable.

Oh look!  It's Mabsark posting about how AM products are overpriced and that its competition is far superior.  Must be div day!
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 502
July 10, 2013, 09:25:20 AM
As with every marketplace, the information is already baked in as far as best guesses are concerned.

I hope people are looking at the global hash as well. It is increasing at ludicrous speed. AM provides one of the few real havens from explosive global hash increases as they can easily ramp up hash to keep their position. Something a home mining setup and many other mining companies cannot.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
July 10, 2013, 09:24:37 AM
I'd assume most people try to buy before such announcements. Furthermore I'd assume they believe they are among the only few smart ones to do it Smiley

I think you give people too much credit.  I don't think they follow these threads like we do.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1012
Still wild and free
July 10, 2013, 09:21:50 AM
Im kind of surprised that the 24 hour value has remained below 4.5.  I thought for sure with the coming announcement on the new blades, a nice dividend expected, and being that it is d-day, that people would go crazy and this thing would shoot to 5 easy.  Not that I am upset over it, on the contrary, but people get so crazy with speculative news my assumption was a decent uptick.

I think people are waiting for the dividend and official news from FC on the blades.

I'd assume most people try to buy before such announcements. Furthermore I'd assume they believe they are among the only few smart ones to do it Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
July 10, 2013, 09:15:43 AM
Im kind of surprised that the 24 hour value has remained below 4.5.  I thought for sure with the coming announcement on the new blades, a nice dividend expected, and being that it is d-day, that people would go crazy and this thing would shoot to 5 easy.  Not that I am upset over it, on the contrary, but people get so crazy with speculative news my assumption was a decent uptick.

I think people are waiting for the dividend and official news from FC on the blades.
sr. member
Activity: 362
Merit: 250
July 10, 2013, 09:12:27 AM
New back-of-the-envelope calculation:

200TH order delivered, imagine all is sold as 10GH units. That's 20k units, at 18 BTC per unit, makes 360k BTC. So a rough estimate of the value of the 200TH order is 0.9 BTC per share.

Have more orders been placed with the fab?
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
July 10, 2013, 09:12:03 AM
I predict .025 for today's div.

it could be more, there are a lot of USB miner sales...

there are a lot, but how many are we talking about?  5,000? 10,000?

Mining revenue is .013
5,000 USBs adds .011 for a total dividend of .024
10,000 USBs adds .022 for a total of .035

MAYBE 10K sold, but I think the number is closer to 5K.

Im kind of surprised that the 24 hour value has remained below 4.5.  I thought for sure with the coming announcement on the new blades, a nice dividend expected, and being that it is d-day, that people would go crazy and this thing would shoot to 5 easy.  Not that I am upset over it, on the contrary, but people get so crazy with speculative news my assumption was a decent uptick.

Everyone is out of btc!
full member
Activity: 490
Merit: 101
FRX: Ferocious Alpha
July 10, 2013, 09:09:40 AM
I predict .025 for today's div.

it could be more, there are a lot of USB miner sales...

there are a lot, but how many are we talking about?  5,000? 10,000?

Mining revenue is .013
5,000 USBs adds .011 for a total dividend of .024
10,000 USBs adds .022 for a total of .035

MAYBE 10K sold, but I think the number is closer to 5K.

Im kind of surprised that the 24 hour value has remained below 4.5.  I thought for sure with the coming announcement on the new blades, a nice dividend expected, and being that it is d-day, that people would go crazy and this thing would shoot to 5 easy.  Not that I am upset over it, on the contrary, but people get so crazy with speculative news my assumption was a decent uptick.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
July 10, 2013, 08:34:48 AM
I predict .025 for today's div.

it could be more, there are a lot of USB miner sales...

there are a lot, but how many are we talking about?  5,000? 10,000?

Mining revenue is .013
5,000 USBs adds .011 for a total dividend of .024
10,000 USBs adds .022 for a total of .035

MAYBE 10K sold, but I think the number is closer to 5K.
hero member
Activity: 752
Merit: 500
bitcoin hodler
July 10, 2013, 08:21:27 AM
I predict .025 for today's div.

it could be more, there are a lot of USB miner sales...
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
July 10, 2013, 08:19:24 AM
I predict .025 for today's div.
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