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Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 85. (Read 808847 times)

hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
Bitgoblin
October 17, 2013, 03:04:11 AM
It will rebuild quickly
Now is about 52% per year Smiley
doesn't mean shit.
that's because the share price reflects the dividend.
it was ~30% even when we had prices >3 BTC.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 501
October 17, 2013, 02:46:34 AM
Friedcat may have gen 2 already, but he is mining himself, defrauding shareholders.

Strong accusation. Do you have any evidence to back it up? Or are you just fear-mongering? Roll Eyes
newbie
Activity: 29
Merit: 0
October 17, 2013, 02:12:34 AM
Friedcat may have gen 2 already, but he is mining himself, defrauding shareholders.
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1090
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
October 17, 2013, 02:02:55 AM
I'm thinking that in the bitcoin world prices change fast
We were at 2 last month difficulty 1/PH
Now 0.5 at Difficulty 2.7/PH
So going through the cycles of fear and thinking
How Low can AM go
How High can AM go
What is variance and what is return based on projected hash rate and estimated difficulty
Then what makes for a fair value and good entry point.
hero member
Activity: 752
Merit: 500
bitcoin hodler
October 17, 2013, 01:53:26 AM
Where do you guys see AM beginning 2014?


Too many variables. It depends on the sales of current batch, sales of next batch, outcome of gen-2, progress of gen-3, and even bitcoin price. But one thing for sure, we will not see 1.5 in 2014 any more, maybe forever.

I agree with you however I think we might see 1.5 or 2 once we get the new gen chips...
legendary
Activity: 882
Merit: 1000
October 17, 2013, 01:23:52 AM
The question is:

Is AM a one trick pony that got lucky or is it a real business with staying power?

I'm afraid the jury is still out on that one.

Betting on the latter myself, but perhaps that is based more on wishful thinking than rational thinking...
To answer that question, we need more information of AM, such as who're in the admin team and their background, what's the future plan, what's the current balance sheet, how many patents and IPs, is there any stable collaborators, ...

Without these information, to invest on a company in long term is not much different from gambling.

It's no like the IPO stage anymore. That time we only needs to know that if the chip works and they get mass produced and deployed before other competitors, the dividend itself can be much more than the share price.

Now we have no idea when the new chip will be designed and whether it works. We even don't know whether it will be profitable when it is produced. Actually we have to bet on friedcat to find other profits from non-mining business. Therefore, we have to evaluate this company in more traditional ways, which require much more information than we have now.
hero member
Activity: 761
Merit: 500
Mine Silent, Mine Deep
October 17, 2013, 12:53:32 AM
The question is:

Is AM a one trick pony that got lucky or is it a real business with staying power?

I'm afraid the jury is still out on that one.

Betting on the latter myself, but perhaps that is based more on wishful thinking than rational thinking...
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
Unlimited Free Crypto
October 16, 2013, 11:57:36 PM
For me the last two months were full of popcorn and nails biting.  Grin. I think this will continue for a while.
legendary
Activity: 882
Merit: 1000
October 16, 2013, 11:37:46 PM
Where do you guys see AM beginning 2014?


Too many variables. It depends on the sales of current batch, sales of next batch, outcome of gen-2, progress of gen-3, and even bitcoin price. But one thing for sure, we will not see 1.5 in 2014 any more, maybe forever.
full member
Activity: 219
Merit: 100
October 16, 2013, 11:34:54 PM
Where do you guys see AM beginning 2014?

legendary
Activity: 882
Merit: 1000
October 16, 2013, 11:14:33 PM
It will rebuild quickly
Now is about 52% per year Smiley

0.004*52=0.208 /0.55= 0.378%  only if dividend remains same next week till the whole year...if there are nothing new chips come out ,I can't see that will be possible....

You did not convert at the end my friend.

0.208 /0.55= 0.378
0.378 is roughly 1/3rd, not 1/300.
So it should be 37.8%

So, lets here some speculation! You guys are still holding for the long term? Thinking we will ever see above 1 BTC per share again?
Only if AM survives to next bubble. Anything can happen during a bubble.
full member
Activity: 172
Merit: 100
October 16, 2013, 10:24:32 PM
It will rebuild quickly
Now is about 52% per year Smiley

0.004*52=0.208 /0.55= 0.378%  only if dividend remains same next week till the whole year...if there are nothing new chips come out ,I can't see that will be possible....

You did not convert at the end my friend.

0.208 /0.55= 0.378
0.378 is roughly 1/3rd, not 1/300.
So it should be 37.8%

So, lets here some speculation! You guys are still holding for the long term? Thinking we will ever see above 1 BTC per share again?
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
October 16, 2013, 02:23:03 PM
Div prediction?

I'm thinking ~0.003, it will hurt  Cry

I'm going to be positive today and say .004

Ding ding ding!
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1012
Still wild and free
October 16, 2013, 02:17:13 PM
Anyone has a link to latest (close to month old now) balance sheet and PL? It was published somewhere here...
Thank you.

Was a google doc right?
Cannot find it either, if you put your hand on it let us know.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
October 16, 2013, 01:48:23 PM
It will rebuild quickly
Now is about 52% per year Smiley

0.004*52=0.208 /0.55= 0.378%  only if dividend remains same next week till the whole year...if there are nothing new chips come out ,I can't see that will be possible....
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
cryptoshark
October 16, 2013, 01:37:48 PM
It will rebuild quickly
Now is about 52% per year Smiley
full member
Activity: 219
Merit: 100
October 16, 2013, 12:46:46 PM
share price falling =(
hero member
Activity: 752
Merit: 500
bitcoin hodler
October 16, 2013, 05:27:56 AM
i hope for 0.036 per share Smiley

like from 5B days

to be realistic, I don't think it will ever happen again... we might see divs around 0.02 if we're lucky and things go well but this can hardly be repeated. The circumstances then and now are changed so drastically that this probably won't happen again... however I did enjoy those fat dividends back then Smiley
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
cryptoshark
October 16, 2013, 04:56:11 AM
i hope for 0.036 per share Smiley

like from 5B days
full member
Activity: 160
Merit: 100
October 16, 2013, 04:50:46 AM
It might have been better for fc to retain all divs until reinvestment was done.
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