Vycid's arguments had a lot to do with getting me out of AM. For weeks I saw what he was writing. It kind of annoyed me but I kept reading it anyway. Thankfully, I realized he was probably right in time to keep most of my profits. He didn't have to do it. He would have made decent profits out of shorting AM anyway. I haven't seen a shred of evidence that his actions moved the market. Let's face it, the market only really turned south when the weekly dividends started to dry up. Why did the weekly dividends dry up? Competition, just like Vycid said it would. When I saw ghash.io's hashate outstrip AM's in a couple of weeks, it became frighteningly clear that AM's price was ridiculous and doomed to fall and I got out.
Vycid is a smart guy who had an opinion based on facts and consistently repeated that opinion in public in the face of scorn from many. He would have profited from that opinion anyway. But he got a few small fish like me to escape before being wiped out by the whales. I don't see what he did as being unethical. Unusual? Yes, but not unethical.
Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 89. (Read 808847 times)
Thanks... yes I have and I'm certainly coming off as a bit righteous. It's just that your point - is the problem. He bashes a stock repeatedly (often merely using FUD - FC's been incommunicative, etc.) and then wins in the process and then sticks around and acts like he was giving advice - because he predicted and contributed to the price going down - I'm sorry that's just not cool.
Friedcat was giving regular updates in the past, then he stopped giving regular updates.Also, he's considered trustworthy.
Hence, what's the most obvious reason he would stop giving updates: there weren't good news, and he wasn't the kind of person to fake, so he just shut up instead of giving bad news.
Not FUD, facts. Everyone could see them, if they just looked with their eyes, instead with the greedy eyes of hope.
We've been pretty stupid, and we've been rightly bashed for that.
I appreciate that stupid people get punished, natural selection sometimes works.
Furthermore, I don't understand how can you believe that vycyd was able on his own to cause AM to plummet, or even to help it.
He simply tryed to destroy the illusion, i.e. the bubble, that many people wanted to pump.
If your strategy of success is hoping a bubble will go on, bad news for you.
That being said, I somewhat appreciate this post of yours.
Right, because manipulating new investors to sell by relentlessly posting on stock forums is in any way ethical.
Are you insane?!?He told he hoped small investors would cash out before the whales did, because it was going to plummet... and it did. And this when the price was ~3 BTC.
He gave us the right advice, of course people didn't listen, and their investment vaporised.
And now he has to be bashed, too?
Have you considered the possibility that you are the asshole, here?
Thanks... yes I have and I'm certainly coming off as a bit righteous. It's just that your point - is the problem. He bashes a stock repeatedly (often merely using FUD - FC's been incommunicative, etc.) and then wins in the process and then sticks around and acts like he was giving advice - because he predicted and contributed to the price going down - I'm sorry that's just not cool.
He may actually be a great guy that decided that since he was giving advice, anyways,
he might as well financially profit from it. OK... Anyways... I hate bullies and I hate it even more when folks don't see - the situation is morally complicated. The dude took advantage - which is not what this Bitcoin scene is all about - he took advantage of n00bal emotions, he took advantage of FC being busy setting up the new HK data center, he took advantage of the smaller dividends to stoke a doubt into a panic. The exchanges closing just added the fuel.
Profiting by contributing to panic at the loss of other's wealth is just plain not cool...
I'll shut up now and you guys can trumpet the dude's brilliance, honesty, and integrity in insuring we all got
Right, because manipulating new investors to sell by relentlessly posting on stock forums is in any way ethical.
Are you insane?!?He told he hoped small investors would cash out before the whales did, because it was going to plummet... and it did. And this when the price was ~3 BTC.
He gave us the right advice, of course people didn't listen, and their investment vaporised.
And now he has to be bashed, too?
Have you considered the possibility that you are the asshole, here?
I'm actually glad to hear this. It's a lot harder taking money from individuals than it is from "the market".
Don't be a dick for no reason.
Right, because manipulating new investors to sell by relentlessly posting on stock forums is in any way ethical. You act like some kind of expert now that you played your little 'push the stock down game' in the middle of a whole slew of bad news and exchange confusion - but you've exposed what a greedy and shameless person you are personally.
You're a dick for a reason - to trick people into having them give your coins. FWIW, I've been on stock forums, penny, etc. for almost 20 years and I've seen all kinds of short trolls. You are truly the most shameless - as you're obviously not some Indian dude posting for $.05 a post. You actually wasted your good rep for a few coins. Pathetic...
Thanks for the update, Vycid. You are such a troll. It's almost funny.
He's not even worth putting on ignore he's so full of his own hype, it's fun to watch him squirm
. The entertainment value of a short who's trapped... begging for attention. Hilarious... 
Something something squirming of a long who is trapped.
It's not hilarious to me, though, you probably lost a lot of money and that's made you upset. I get that. What I don't understand is how the market correction is my fault, especially considering my recent absence does not appear to have impacted the trend.
As for "'playing the push down game' in the middle of a whole slew of bad news and exchange confusion", I have been bearish on AM for longer than your account has been registered. The bad news was more or less stuff I'd been saying might happen for months.
I tried to warn you, you mocked me, you were wrong, game over.
Dude... I know there's no way to convince you of this, but I haven't lost any money. You 'owned' this rather obvious correction. You played it like your little fiddle - costing a lot of n00bs their little fortune - and now you strut and think you're an expert. You are an unethical troll and now you begin to conform to the trope of stock short troll by calling me a 'trapped long'. Hilarious...
Also, I've never mocked your posts - I've mocked your ethics - I'm the guy that got you to add that disclaimer on your sigs. I've never argued that AM wasn't going down. That seemed rather obvious.
You contributed to panic sell-offs in a monumentally unethical and shameful way, for your own profit, and you should be ashamed to still be here, strutting around like you did nothing wrong - like some type of expert.
I hate to admit it, but vycid was right when he was saying that AM was overvalued a month or two ago.
He's not even that bearish at the moment.
chill.
btw AM is still overvalued until they have solid news on new hardware....
He's not even that bearish at the moment.
chill.
btw AM is still overvalued until they have solid news on new hardware....
I'm actually glad to hear this. It's a lot harder taking money from individuals than it is from "the market".
Don't be a dick for no reason.
Right, because manipulating new investors to sell by relentlessly posting on stock forums is in any way ethical. You act like some kind of expert now that you played your little 'push the stock down game' in the middle of a whole slew of bad news and exchange confusion - but you've exposed what a greedy and shameless person you are personally.
You're a dick for a reason - to trick people into having them give your coins. FWIW, I've been on stock forums, penny, etc. for almost 20 years and I've seen all kinds of short trolls. You are truly the most shameless - as you're obviously not some Indian dude posting for $.05 a post. You actually wasted your good rep for a few coins. Pathetic...
Thanks for the update, Vycid. You are such a troll. It's almost funny.
He's not even worth putting on ignore he's so full of his own hype, it's fun to watch him squirm
. The entertainment value of a short who's trapped... begging for attention. Hilarious... Something something squirming of a long who is trapped.
It's not hilarious to me, though, you probably lost a lot of money and that's made you upset. I get that. What I don't understand is how the market correction is my fault, especially considering my recent absence does not appear to have impacted the trend.
As for "'playing the push down game' in the middle of a whole slew of bad news and exchange confusion", I have been bearish on AM for longer than your account has been registered. The bad news was more or less stuff I'd been saying might happen for months.
I tried to warn you, you mocked me, you were wrong, game over.
I'm actually glad to hear this. It's a lot harder taking money from individuals than it is from "the market".
Don't be a dick for no reason.
Right, because manipulating new investors to sell by relentlessly posting on stock forums is in any way ethical. You act like some kind of expert now that you played your little 'push the stock down game' in the middle of a whole slew of bad news and exchange confusion - but you've exposed what a greedy and shameless person you are personally.
You're a dick for a reason - to trick people into having them give your coins. FWIW, I've been on stock forums, penny, etc. for almost 20 years and I've seen all kinds of short trolls. You are truly the most shameless - as you're obviously not some Indian dude posting for $.05 a post. You actually wasted your good rep for a few coins. Pathetic...
Not me, not anymore.
So you did write PUT for vycyd. Does that hurt? lol.
No, it doesn't, actually.
I mostly see it as me playing against him and he winning, and that's very good: who played best, won, and that's great. At least money went to someone who deserved it, instead of to some bank or politician.
Or you can say I've paid him to learn a lesson, there are much more expensive lessons out there.
Either way, it's been quite good.
(obviously not as good as getting it right, but better to fail here were the amount are relatively low, than failing much bigger later)
I'm actually glad to hear this. It's a lot harder taking money from individuals than it is from "the market".
I'm still not sure if everyone I exercised puts on was prepared to lose that money.
(... As trolls go, much less classy than vycid, I have to say...)
So "classy troll" is my legacy, huh?
So you did write PUT for vycyd. Does that hurt? lol.
Somebody learns the lesson in a hard way.
Don't be a dick for no reason.
Actually the numbers match, so he does seem to hold all shares:
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT#pane_divs
http://blockchain.info/address/124pXdLYTZtAQ95gHdL43fTofaS5bHqAFi
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT#pane_divs
http://blockchain.info/address/124pXdLYTZtAQ95gHdL43fTofaS5bHqAFi
If it adds up now, he must have purchased to fix it after his announcement.
So let me get this straight: Ukyo was fractioning his AM shares, got margin called (or however you want to put it), had to buy the shares at market, and now is MIA? How many shares are we talking about here?
Really quite frightening that he is still MIA. People are understandably freaking out a bit.
And then there was only one (Havelock).
Friedcat said the profit margin would be one digit next year. It's friedcat saying it, not me.
I think the majority of people have misinterpreted this comment, if you read it more clearly it has the opposite connotation, AM is preparing itself so that Gen2 will be competitive even if the ASIC manufacturing industry is faced with single digit % profits. do you see the difference? They will produce Gen2 at a low enough cost that they can chase the margin down to single digits to squeeze the competition. I think the interpretation that GEN2 will be produced and out of the gate only see single digit % profits... i find it laughable that anybody could have made this assumption. my 2 cents.
In a mature industry margins are squeezed to zero. The only exceptions are brands, which command a premium. ASICs are becoming commodity hardware and over the whole industry, at the margin, the margins will be driven to zero. In this sense the bears are right.
Asicminer has both early mover advantage, which is short term, and the advantage of having personal relationships with manufacturers in Shenzen to produce hardware at cost. The latter is 'invincible' and it is this you are investing in when buying shares in Asicminer as a mining company. In addition, friedcat has proven adaptable and an astute strategist. There is also a hope therefore he can create new value opportunities as a businessman.
Others' advantages could be hosting costs/power. The franchising model hopefully can marry this with friedcat's manufacturing advantage.
I agree with the part about the mature industry, but what the time frames that i am talking about are the next 2-6 months (rest of this year to say end of Q1 2014) we are still going to be in double digit returns territory, even in bitcoin that seems where time seems to move like dog years, we won't mature that fast. But this is all besides the point, what i was referring to is the interpretation of the message from FC, I don't think they are predicting single digit returns, I think they are forward thinking, again to the "invincible" manufacturing costs.
Lets look at it this way, and i'm not saying this is the only way, but lets try and see if we can get an eye into the mind of some of these different ASIC competitors, one of the reasons I like AM is that they are going for "invincible" manufacturing costs, they aren't trying to produce a 10 Th chip the size of a playing card, instead they are using smaller chips with, and this is a guess, lower $/th production costs, meanwhile all the competition is talking about their gen2 products being monster chips, i have a feeling AM is going to break this trend and will come out with a smaller chip and an ultimately lower cost/unit and cost/Th. In a year or two, when ASIC manufacturing start to approach "mature" industry status, it will be the cost/Th of the units that come out in the next couple months that determines who will be a viable player, and who will not.
Actually the numbers match, so he does seem to hold all shares:
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT#pane_divs
http://blockchain.info/address/124pXdLYTZtAQ95gHdL43fTofaS5bHqAFi
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT#pane_divs
http://blockchain.info/address/124pXdLYTZtAQ95gHdL43fTofaS5bHqAFi
If it adds up now, he must have purchased to fix it after his announcement.
So let me get this straight: Ukyo was fractioning his AM shares, got margin called (or however you want to put it), had to buy the shares at market, and now is MIA? How many shares are we talking about here?
Friedcat said the profit margin would be one digit next year. It's friedcat saying it, not me.
I think the majority of people have misinterpreted this comment, if you read it more clearly it has the opposite connotation, AM is preparing itself so that Gen2 will be competitive even if the ASIC manufacturing industry is faced with single digit % profits. do you see the difference? They will produce Gen2 at a low enough cost that they can chase the margin down to single digits to squeeze the competition. I think the interpretation that GEN2 will be produced and out of the gate only see single digit % profits... i find it laughable that anybody could have made this assumption. my 2 cents.
In a mature industry margins are squeezed to zero. The only exceptions are brands, which command a premium. ASICs are becoming commodity hardware and over the whole industry, at the margin, the margins will be driven to zero. In this sense the bears are right.
Asicminer has both early mover advantage, which is short term, and the advantage of having personal relationships with manufacturers in Shenzen to produce hardware at cost. The latter is 'invincible' and it is this you are investing in when buying shares in Asicminer as a mining company. In addition, friedcat has proven adaptable and an astute strategist. There is also a hope therefore he can create new value opportunities as a businessman.
Others' advantages could be hosting costs/power. The franchising model hopefully can marry this with friedcat's manufacturing advantage.
I agree with the part about the mature industry, but what the time frames that i am talking about are the next 2-6 months (rest of this year to say end of Q1 2014) we are still going to be in double digit returns territory, even in bitcoin that seems where time seems to move like dog years, we won't mature that fast. But this is all besides the point, what i was referring to is the interpretation of the message from FC, I don't think they are predicting single digit returns, I think they are forward thinking, again to the "invincible" manufacturing costs.
Lets look at it this way, and i'm not saying this is the only way, but lets try and see if we can get an eye into the mind of some of these different ASIC competitors, one of the reasons I like AM is that they are going for "invincible" manufacturing costs, they aren't trying to produce a 10 Th chip the size of a playing card, instead they are using smaller chips with, and this is a guess, lower $/th production costs, meanwhile all the competition is talking about their gen2 products being monster chips, i have a feeling AM is going to break this trend and will come out with a smaller chip and an ultimately lower cost/unit and cost/Th. In a year or two, when ASIC manufacturing start to approach "mature" industry status, it will be the cost/Th of the units that come out in the next couple months that determines who will be a viable player, and who will not.
Actually the numbers match, so he does seem to hold all shares:
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT#pane_divs
http://blockchain.info/address/124pXdLYTZtAQ95gHdL43fTofaS5bHqAFi
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT#pane_divs
http://blockchain.info/address/124pXdLYTZtAQ95gHdL43fTofaS5bHqAFi
If it adds up now, he must have purchased to fix it after his announcement.
Actually the numbers match, so he does seem to hold all shares:
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT#pane_divs
http://blockchain.info/address/124pXdLYTZtAQ95gHdL43fTofaS5bHqAFi
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT#pane_divs
http://blockchain.info/address/124pXdLYTZtAQ95gHdL43fTofaS5bHqAFi
1. I asked several times when he cleary was around and very likely read the question. It seems he doesn't want to answer. The export question is probably #1 question in the BF.AM thread anyway. Though there is a minimal chance, that he "just missed it" ...
Is it possible that he for some reason lost some shares, and is operating as a fractional reserve?(of course paying dividends would become a problem in this case
(and this is one more reason paying dividends is much better than not paying them)
)
Yes. This is something he already noted publicly, and can be seen by looking at the public wallet address he holds the shares in.
1. I asked several times when he cleary was around and very likely read the question. It seems he doesn't want to answer. The export question is probably #1 question in the BF.AM thread anyway. Though there is a minimal chance, that he "just missed it" ...
Is it possible that he for some reason lost some shares, and is operating as a fractional reserve?(of course paying dividends would become a problem in this case
(and this is one more reason paying dividends is much better than not paying them)
)
Yes. This is something he already noted publicly, and can be seen by looking at the public wallet address he holds the shares in.
EDIT: Apparently this has been corrected.
1. I asked several times when he cleary was around and very likely read the question. It seems he doesn't want to answer. The export question is probably #1 question in the BF.AM thread anyway. Though there is a minimal chance, that he "just missed it" ...
Is it possible that he for some reason lost some shares, and is operating as a fractional reserve?(of course paying dividends would become a problem in this case
(and this is one more reason paying dividends is much better than not paying them)
)
Do you assume that from Ukyo beeing MIA or do you have specific information?
Two speculative reasons:
1. I asked several times when he cleary was around and very likely read the question. It seems he doesn't want to answer. The export question is probably #1 question in the BF.AM thread anyway. Though there is a minimal chance, that he "just missed it" ...
2. TAT declines to accept BF.AM (full) shares. This is not a new situation and nothing special-post-BF-closure-for-US issue.
That said, Ukyo never declined it, but neither ever confirmed it.
Ukyo MIA?
<+gribble> ukyo was last seen in #bitfunder 11 hours, 51 minutes, and 36 seconds ago:
So far it seems like Ukyo won't export AM shares from BF.
Do you assume that from Ukyo beeing MIA or do you have specific information? Jump to: