Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 87. (Read 808757 times)

source?

From what I understand no more usb sticks will be produced after the last batch and the same will be for blades in a short time I think.

Exactly. It's like telling Apple to sell their iPads cheaper because they can be made at a fraction of the price.

Blades are now for 2.75 and AM can go as low as 0.25, AFAIK.

No profit is being eaten away, all non-essential profit has been distributed as dividends, rest is being put forward to creation of 2nd and/or 3rd gen of chips/miners

I'm not talking about they miners they deployed, yes AM has made profit mining, and now that profit is  being eaten away.

I understand AM doesnt pay 3.5 BTC for a blade, I mean the consumer. The consumer will not make the btc back that they spend on the hardware. So as more people learn that less and less will sell, unless the price drops enough to change that fact and in that case AM will lose profit. In which case share price still falls. Until they get some new chips faster than anyone else they will not be bouncing back. Could be a year. Most people would rather just wait and buy back in when they see things looking up. There has to be incentive for most people. Some will hold because they feel it's the right thing to do to stand by the company. Some can't afford to take the loss.

When havelock releases the news they are shutting out US customers or shutting down the price will drop sharply again. When we have a better way to exchange securities and AM has a new chip that may be a good time to buy, but the price could be a lot cheaper to start than it is now

The miners they deployed made back the btc long long time ago.
And AM only pays the manufacturing costs, not the mentioned 3,5 BTC each blade.

The main problem is they can´t deploy more hashrate, because the total power consumption in
the datacenter is limited.

Well if asics were free that would make sense, but sense there is a relatively high cost to start mining with the asic you are at a loss until that cost is completely recouped. Regardless of btc value, because your trading your btc for the miner. Why is this so hard for people to understand? I guess if people did understand that easily the price would have fell a lot sooner  

Sentiment here is extremely bearish at the moment.

Almost the mirror image of the top.

They have to turn those off by March 2014?

You are being unclear at best.

It certainly does not "generate" a loss: once you have your equipement in hand, it generates bitcoins at a much higher rate than the electricity you spend.

You might mean that "including its production price, it won't break even", and this might or might not be true, depending on when that equipment went online.
Also remember that producing it for themselves saves many costs, such as delivery, (partly) setup, middlemen, etc., so the amount they have to recoup with each piece of hardware is much lower than those of a random guy buying one.

(not that I think AM is in good shape, of course, just pointing out your post isn't accurate)

By my count, at current difficulty and with a power cost of 0.06 USD/kWh, the cost of generating one BTC is about 3.80 USD. That means it earns around 36x the cost to power it.

An Asic that consumes 7W/GHs still generates about 6 times the btc that it will cost to power it.
So there still a long way before you start mining at a loss. Long in BTC time of course  

It's painfully obvious, that mots of you guys are totally oblivious to simple concepts like profit margin, product cost etc.
Problem with BTC is that it's absurdly volatile compared to any fiat out there. Real world is not using BTC so AM had to sell your BTC to get fiat for all the expenses.
Looking at AM mining income, it keeps falling like a dead cat from a roof - dividends shrink at same speed. It actually hit the ground some time ago.
Same happened to sales figures because they had to make their stuff attractive to miners. As of now, there is nothing they can do because none of their equipment is worth even a penny.
Problem is, their sales minus cost of production and all the other related expense is not even close to what they are losing from soaring mining difficulty. At the same time, the equipment AM uses for mining has become obsolete and I am absolutely sure, it generates a loss.  
It is completely irrelevant, what they paid for the chips because if they have to put in 1.1 (power, maintenance etc) to  produce 1, they are generating a loss and eating away previous gains (value of the Co drops).
For some funny reason, people tend to think that the cost becomes magically 0 if you spent 5 and mined 5 with it.
No, your cost is still 5 and no matter what you do, it's remains at 5. Now, if you spend 1.1 and earned 1, you just made a loss of 0.1 no matter how many rigs you got running.

To be honest, I have no idea why anyone actually buys any AM products any more. For a souvenir? OK, fine by me. But then why not make those out of painted plastic with a blinking LED and be done with it (and probably make a profit too)

It doesn´t matter if you don´t get back what you payed in BTC.

The price is set by the market, and at 3.5 they sold like hotcakes.

Why charge less?

Last price I heard on blades was 3.5 BTC or some nonsense, and they hash at what 10G? 13G maybe? Your so much better off just keeping your bitcoin. Your basically trading your btc for a device that will probably not return the same amount. If the price of bitcoin goes up you still would have been better off holding your btc. Not to mention electricity costs, downtime, malfunctions, etc. Its like a pre-order for bitcoin lol

I got into all this because I believe in bitcoin, ironically I have traded alot of those bitcoin I value so much for shares of companies with bad or unrealistic business plans mainly because I wanted to support bitcoin business and economy. Making a profit is a bonus when it happens, but I can't just give my bitcoins away.

The price has been steady falling since before any exchanges fell. Not saying it has nothing to do with it, I never said that at all. That's also a BIG problem.

Correct the price will rise as the divs rise and revenue increases. That's why it's falling because the opposite has happened consistently for too long. Their current pattern is clear. Also,

Havelock may be next to shut out US customers or close. That will happen, just a matter of how long until. I am out for now, as I said I may get back in later but not until more things are clear I can't afford to throw away money when the short-term outcome is so clearly a loss.

I agree, but you would still be getting dividends.

last price of blades was considerably higher than .25 btc.

Selling itself is irrelevant.
What matters is how much total profit you get.
And if they sold blades with a mere .1 markup (assuming your .15 cost, .25 price), I doubt we would get nice dividends.

so, the closing exchanges have nothing to do with the share price, then?  The price on BF halved right after the announcement.

The current price takes the lower liquidity into consideration, plus the fact that AM is currently NOT SELLING HARDWARE.

The price will rise as the dividends rise.  If revenue doesn't increase, then share price won't, either.

this . . .