Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 88. (Read 808847 times)

They've got 500 TH of product coming...

that's simply not true.

Would you buy a blade at .1 btc?
They will continue to reduce prices to compete with newer tech, that's the way it works.  And people will continue to buy AM product as long as they keep prices competitive.

My understanding based on previous discussions in the main thread is the 10 gh/s blades cost well more than .1 btc to produce.  Can you elaborate on why you feel they could be priced at .1 btc? or where your getting this estimate?

They've got 500 TH of product coming...

that's simply not true.

Would you buy a blade at .1 btc?
They will continue to reduce prices to compete with newer tech, that's the way it works.  And people will continue to buy AM product as long as they keep prices competitive.

yet, they've sold 100% of them...

and what will they sell now?

Would you buy a blade at this point? They need the next gen product if they want to compete from now on, I am not arguing that asicminer hasnt been profitable in the past, just saying the hardware they sell is no longer profitable and there are options that are. AM needs a new product and fast

The margins on the devices could be 100% but if only 25% of them sell its a loss

He wasn't talking profitable for AM he was talking about profitable for people buying them.  People buying them will not be making a profit even if they have them in hand.  This will keep them from continually buying them as there will be no funds for re-investing in hardware.  Additionally, currently they are selling out because there aren't any other product-in-hand hardware channels.  This window is rapidly closing and AM won't be viewed as an acceptable alternative in the future.

Hi there Senor Anger Management,

He wasn't talking profitable for AM he was talking about profitable for people buying them.  People buying them will not be making a profit even if they have them in hand.  This will keep them from continually buying them as there will be no funds for re-investing in hardware.  Additionally, currently they are selling out because there aren't any other product-in-hand hardware channels.  This window is rapidly closing and AM won't be viewed as an acceptable alternative in the future.

that's complete bullshit.  AM has sold out of their hardware, which means the demand is still there.  

Profitable?  The margins on these devices are still very high (over 50%).

People can't act like the exchanges failing had nothing to do with the share price.  The share price took a massive hit after the BTCT announcement.  On the BitFunder announcement, it halved.

AM is now a hardware sales company at a time when the hardware they sell has been proven unprofitable.

Certainly coins eventually get enticed out with a high enough price, in the last crash 150k coins instantly appeared, all desperate to sell for something remotely close to the 260 high, a similar rush of coins could easily knock price back to double digits because all the coins offered on Gox are just a smidgin of the total supply. 

The coins held by Gox but not actually offered are clearly very very numerous as the speed at which the 150k appeared could only have come from coins already in the Gox system.  So while their were technically only 20k coins offered their were probably 10 times that number 'lurking' and waiting to pounce once it looked like the market had peaked.  That's why the price was unsustainable, it was a lie that their were really only 20k coins available.

When your supply numbers are so manipulated it's so easy to manipulate the market by withdrawing or moving bids.  This is part of why Gox is so BAD as a market, it allows the out right lie of putting out offers that are never intended to be filled and will be retracted as soon as price approaches them, no legitimate market allows this kind of behavior.  If people were allowed to put in only true bids and offers and not retract them or place them at a panic speed then we would not see bubbles grow to this magnitude.

Also I'm not really convinced someone is pumping the market in preparation for a dump (wouldn't be the least surprised if that was the case though), some BTC whale might really think they are becoming 'wealthier' or are even making everyone with BTC wealthier by driving this thing up, people can really be that dump particularly in BTC land.

Please don't burn yourself neither do anything stupid like that.

That being said, as long as you did what everyone everywere suggests, i.e. "don't invest more that you can afford to lose", you can easily think of this as a hard-earned lesson. Definitely not the end of the world.

I just can't accept that massive loss...every time I thought to myself this time will be bottom... and couple of days later, new bottom reached...The current thinking is I know that there is no way for me to cover the massive loss..  390 BTC invested is only worth 115 BTC right now...  70% of its value gone ...what should I do ? I think I am kind of burning myself at this moment.

I think the only way is to keep trust in Friedcat, as he may bring a miracle revenge of the cat....

I think the only way is to keep trust in Friedcat, as he may bring a miracle revenge of the cat....

Partly true but there was plenty of trolling in there too.

Vycid is a smart guy who had an opinion based on facts and consistently repeated that opinion in public in the face of scorn from many. He would have profited from that opinion anyway. But he got a few small fish like me to escape before being wiped out by the whales. I don't see what he did as being unethical. Unusual? Yes, but not unethical.

Vycid's arguments had a lot to do with getting me out of AM. For weeks I saw what he was writing. It kind of annoyed me but I kept reading it anyway. Thankfully, I realized he was probably right in time to keep most of my profits. He didn't have to do it. He would have made decent profits out of shorting AM anyway. I haven't seen a shred of evidence that his actions moved the market. Let's face it, the market only really turned south when the weekly dividends started to dry up. Why did the weekly dividends dry up? Competition, just like Vycid said it would. When I saw ghash.io's hashate outstrip AM's in a couple of weeks, it became frighteningly clear that AM's price was ridiculous and doomed to fall and I got out.

Vycid is a smart guy who had an opinion based on facts and consistently repeated that opinion in public in the face of scorn from many. He would have profited from that opinion anyway. But he got a few small fish like me to escape before being wiped out by the whales. I don't see what he did as being unethical. Unusual? Yes, but not unethical.