Technical analysis on a market as immature as Bitcoin is a joke.
IMO ignore this thread and watch Bitcoin-related news, it has infinitely more effect on Bitcoin price moves than anything "technical analysis" looks at does.
Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 31. (Read 110414 times)
November 30, 2015, 06:30:35 AM
November 30, 2015, 04:20:31 AM
An interesting feature of my analysis is it will self correct after a long bull or bear period.
Take my update on 19 Dec 2014 as example:
By clicking the link in the quote, you will find that the expected price for today (30 Nov 2015) is $10447. With the latest model, however, it is only $1888.11.
This is because the slope of the regression line is decreasing for everyday the price is under the expected value. If the VWAP sticks to the present value of $360 forever, the expected price will converge to $360 and the slope will also converge to 0 eventually.
Thanks for the answer and pointing that out to me. this latest model seems to fit slightly better Bitcoin's price behaviour. Still, it looks like the first 2009-2014 bull run (all what happened before Mt. Gox's crash must be considered as one very long bull spell, as the earlier corrections were steep but relatively short) overwhelms the prediction a little bit. Will be watching closely if the expected value stabilises. Optimally, you would like to move within -1 and +1 band, with only extreme events taking you outside of it for a short time. Currently, I don't consider we are extremely oversold and thus my comment. Take my update on 19 Dec 2014 as example:
Date: 19-Dec-2014
VWAP: 313.31
x: 1616
a: 0.00551
b: -1.55140
Rsq: 0.89664
The day's expected price: 1553.94
Actual price / expected price: 20.16%
Log(Actual price / expected price): -1.601
Predicted date for today's price: 3-Mar-2014
Days ahead: -290.77
Daily price rank: 405
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 27-Oct-2014
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00550739267993612++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.5513992248266+%29
VWAP: 313.31
x: 1616
a: 0.00551
b: -1.55140
Rsq: 0.89664
The day's expected price: 1553.94
Actual price / expected price: 20.16%
Log(Actual price / expected price): -1.601
Predicted date for today's price: 3-Mar-2014
Days ahead: -290.77
Daily price rank: 405
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 27-Oct-2014
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00550739267993612++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.5513992248266+%29
By clicking the link in the quote, you will find that the expected price for today (30 Nov 2015) is $10447. With the latest model, however, it is only $1888.11.
This is because the slope of the regression line is decreasing for everyday the price is under the expected value. If the VWAP sticks to the present value of $360 forever, the expected price will converge to $360 and the slope will also converge to 0 eventually.
November 29, 2015, 11:16:19 PM
An interesting feature of my analysis is it will self correct after a long bull or bear period.
Take my update on 19 Dec 2014 as example:
By clicking the link in the quote, you will find that the expected price for today (30 Nov 2015) is $10447. With the latest model, however, it is only $1888.11.
This is because the slope of the regression line is decreasing for everyday the price is under the expected value. If the VWAP sticks to the present value of $360 forever, the expected price will converge to $360 and the slope will also converge to 0 eventually.
Take my update on 19 Dec 2014 as example:
Date: 19-Dec-2014
VWAP: 313.31
x: 1616
a: 0.00551
b: -1.55140
Rsq: 0.89664
The day's expected price: 1553.94
Actual price / expected price: 20.16%
Log(Actual price / expected price): -1.601
Predicted date for today's price: 3-Mar-2014
Days ahead: -290.77
Daily price rank: 405
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 27-Oct-2014
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00550739267993612++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.5513992248266+%29
VWAP: 313.31
x: 1616
a: 0.00551
b: -1.55140
Rsq: 0.89664
The day's expected price: 1553.94
Actual price / expected price: 20.16%
Log(Actual price / expected price): -1.601
Predicted date for today's price: 3-Mar-2014
Days ahead: -290.77
Daily price rank: 405
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 27-Oct-2014
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00550739267993612++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.5513992248266+%29
By clicking the link in the quote, you will find that the expected price for today (30 Nov 2015) is $10447. With the latest model, however, it is only $1888.11.
This is because the slope of the regression line is decreasing for everyday the price is under the expected value. If the VWAP sticks to the present value of $360 forever, the expected price will converge to $360 and the slope will also converge to 0 eventually.
I will quote my previous post, as the recent run up showed exactly what I was talking about. Even in a quite bubble-like event we had recently, when price spiked at $502 and the daily RSI went to 90 (see charts on the previous page), we hardly touched -1.5 of BETI. That clearly shows that the expected value is overshoot by far. That is because the initial data is misleading the trend settings.
Probably this question was already asked in here back at the early days of this thread, but I will try to bring this issue into a discussion once again.
Whenever I am running simulation or an experiment, I am interested in a stationary process. Meaning the initial (warm-up) behaviour should not have been considered when talking about long-term trend. Have you tried to remove the first two years of data and redraw your charts? I am wondering if that would correct your expected values to a more reasonable levels, as for today it seems that the chart will be stuck in the -2 area even with slowly rising prices, and only a bubble-like event could bring us to -1 values, not to mention even the expected price.
Whenever I am running simulation or an experiment, I am interested in a stationary process. Meaning the initial (warm-up) behaviour should not have been considered when talking about long-term trend. Have you tried to remove the first two years of data and redraw your charts? I am wondering if that would correct your expected values to a more reasonable levels, as for today it seems that the chart will be stuck in the -2 area even with slowly rising prices, and only a bubble-like event could bring us to -1 values, not to mention even the expected price.
November 29, 2015, 03:38:59 PM
I will quote my previous post, as the recent run up showed exactly what I was talking about. Even in a quite bubble-like event we had recently, when price spiked at $502 and the daily RSI went to 90 (see charts on the previous page), we hardly touched -1.5 of BETI. That clearly shows that the expected value is overshoot by far. That is because the initial data is misleading the trend settings.
Probably this question was already asked in here back at the early days of this thread, but I will try to bring this issue into a discussion once again.
Whenever I am running simulation or an experiment, I am interested in a stationary process. Meaning the initial (warm-up) behaviour should not have been considered when talking about long-term trend. Have you tried to remove the first two years of data and redraw your charts? I am wondering if that would correct your expected values to a more reasonable levels, as for today it seems that the chart will be stuck in the -2 area even with slowly rising prices, and only a bubble-like event could bring us to -1 values, not to mention even the expected price.
Whenever I am running simulation or an experiment, I am interested in a stationary process. Meaning the initial (warm-up) behaviour should not have been considered when talking about long-term trend. Have you tried to remove the first two years of data and redraw your charts? I am wondering if that would correct your expected values to a more reasonable levels, as for today it seems that the chart will be stuck in the -2 area even with slowly rising prices, and only a bubble-like event could bring us to -1 values, not to mention even the expected price.
November 29, 2015, 03:24:55 PM
One of the few remaining threads that's worth coming back to this forum for. 
November 29, 2015, 01:08:41 PM
I'm waiting for the +1.87 high to get broken 
November 29, 2015, 12:43:33 PM
November 29, 2015, 12:37:06 PM
Update:
Date: 28-Nov-2015
BETI -1.672
VWAP: 354.66
x: 1960
a: 0.00426
b: -0.81231
Rsq: 0.82006
The day's expected price: 1888.11
Actual price / expected price: 18.78%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 203.28
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 12223.37
Predicted date for today's price: 31-Oct-2014
Days ahead: -392.25
Daily price rank: 382
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.0042630799741331++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.812305062248869+%29
Date: 28-Nov-2015
BETI -1.672
VWAP: 354.66
x: 1960
a: 0.00426
b: -0.81231
Rsq: 0.82006
The day's expected price: 1888.11
Actual price / expected price: 18.78%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 203.28
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 12223.37
Predicted date for today's price: 31-Oct-2014
Days ahead: -392.25
Daily price rank: 382
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.0042630799741331++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.812305062248869+%29
November 13, 2015, 10:39:12 PM
BETI is around the -1.75 support
Date: 13-Nov-2015
BETI -1.721
VWAP: 334.06
x: 1945
a: 0.00430
b: -0.83911
Rsq: 0.82217
The day's expected price: 1867.90
Actual price / expected price: 17.88%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 201.10
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 12092.50
Predicted date for today's price: 9-Oct-2014
Days ahead: -399.90
Daily price rank: 405
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00430420239495335++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.83910602987819+%29
Date: 13-Nov-2015
BETI -1.721
VWAP: 334.06
x: 1945
a: 0.00430
b: -0.83911
Rsq: 0.82217
The day's expected price: 1867.90
Actual price / expected price: 17.88%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 201.10
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 12092.50
Predicted date for today's price: 9-Oct-2014
Days ahead: -399.90
Daily price rank: 405
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00430420239495335++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.83910602987819+%29
November 05, 2015, 10:32:23 PM
BETI was down below -1.5 again yesterday. Going lower today. Support should be -1.75 at $322
Date: 5-Nov-2015
BETI -1.529
VWAP: 401.92
x: 1937
a: 0.00433
b: -0.85287
Rsq: 0.82312
The day's expected price: 1854.76
Actual price / expected price: 21.67%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 199.69
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 12007.45
Predicted date for today's price: 16-Nov-2014
Days ahead: -353.55
Daily price rank: 319
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00432543901681942++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.852866194739526+%29
Date: 5-Nov-2015
BETI -1.529
VWAP: 401.92
x: 1937
a: 0.00433
b: -0.85287
Rsq: 0.82312
The day's expected price: 1854.76
Actual price / expected price: 21.67%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 199.69
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 12007.45
Predicted date for today's price: 16-Nov-2014
Days ahead: -353.55
Daily price rank: 319
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00432543901681942++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.852866194739526+%29
November 05, 2015, 03:40:26 AM
Following
November 05, 2015, 01:27:26 AM
The BETI is hovering around -1.5 again, as it did in Q3-Q4 2014 before it dropped to -2
So we need to break through to $600 soon?
I hope it could be stable above -1.5, around 412
November 04, 2015, 11:26:05 PM
The BETI is hovering around -1.5 again, as it did in Q3-Q4 2014 before it dropped to -2
So we need to break through to $600 soon?
November 04, 2015, 09:54:02 PM
The BETI is hovering around -1.5 again, as it did in Q3-Q4 2014 before it dropped to -2
Date: 4-Nov-2015
BETI -1.425
VWAP: 445.45
x: 1936
a: 0.00433
b: -0.85446
Rsq: 0.82320
The day's expected price: 1852.62
Actual price / expected price: 24.04%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 199.46
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 11993.60
Predicted date for today's price: 9-Dec-2014
Days ahead: -329.32
Daily price rank: 287
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00432789851500657++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.854456057168578+%29
Date: 4-Nov-2015
BETI -1.425
VWAP: 445.45
x: 1936
a: 0.00433
b: -0.85446
Rsq: 0.82320
The day's expected price: 1852.62
Actual price / expected price: 24.04%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 199.46
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 11993.60
Predicted date for today's price: 9-Dec-2014
Days ahead: -329.32
Daily price rank: 287
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00432789851500657++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.854456057168578+%29
November 03, 2015, 10:02:14 PM
If we are in a bubble, even a mini one, how high it may go? The Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index (BETI) may give us some hints. The mid-2012 mini bubble went from -1.25 to -0.5 (+0.75). The early-2013 bubble went from -0.75 to 1.5 (+2.25). The late-2013 bubble went from -0.125 to 1.625 (+1.75).
After the long bear trend, I believe we are more likely in a mini bubble like the mid-2012 one, that may send us from -2 to -1.25 (+0.75) in a few weeks. In that case, the target price will be around $530 for this mini bubble. A full bubble may happen next year around halving which will create a new ATH and push BETI above 0.
In my opinion a full bubble will likely follow in less than three months but no sooner than one month after the mini-bubble.
The full bubble might be on a scale we haven't seen before.
This might be wishful thinking, but most of the charts seem positive on this.
I don't think it is wishful thinking. Compare today with Dec 2013, who was speculating and ABLE to buy bitcoin in 2013 compared to today. It makes completely rational sense that the top will be vastly higher than in 2013 even with Gox fraud willy bot.
November 03, 2015, 09:54:17 PM
If we are in a bubble, even a mini one, how high it may go? The Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index (BETI) may give us some hints. The mid-2012 mini bubble went from -1.25 to -0.5 (+0.75). The early-2013 bubble went from -0.75 to 1.5 (+2.25). The late-2013 bubble went from -0.125 to 1.625 (+1.75).
After the long bear trend, I believe we are more likely in a mini bubble like the mid-2012 one, that may send us from -2 to -1.25 (+0.75) in a few weeks. In that case, the target price will be around $530 for this mini bubble. A full bubble may happen next year around halving which will create a new ATH and push BETI above 0.
In my opinion a full bubble will likely follow in less than three months but no sooner than one month after the mini-bubble.
The full bubble might be on a scale we haven't seen before.
This might be wishful thinking, but most of the charts seem positive on this.
November 03, 2015, 08:58:28 PM
Date: 3-Nov-2015
BETI: -1.559
VWAP: 389.22
x: 1935
a: 0.00433
b: -0.85594
Rsq: 0.82325
The day's expected price: 1850.08
Actual price / expected price: 21.04%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 199.18
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 11977.18
Predicted date for today's price: 8-Nov-2014
Days ahead: -359.99
Daily price rank: 326
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00433019316137494++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.855938591308718+%29
BETI: -1.559
VWAP: 389.22
x: 1935
a: 0.00433
b: -0.85594
Rsq: 0.82325
The day's expected price: 1850.08
Actual price / expected price: 21.04%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 199.18
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 11977.18
Predicted date for today's price: 8-Nov-2014
Days ahead: -359.99
Daily price rank: 326
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00433019316137494++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.855938591308718+%29
November 03, 2015, 12:08:33 PM
If we are in a bubble, even a mini one, how high it may go? The Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index (BETI) may give us some hints. The mid-2012 mini bubble went from -1.25 to -0.5 (+0.75). The early-2013 bubble went from -0.75 to 1.5 (+2.25). The late-2013 bubble went from -0.125 to 1.625 (+1.75).
After the long bear trend, I believe we are more likely in a mini bubble like the mid-2012 one, that may send us from -2 to -1.25 (+0.75) in a few weeks. In that case, the target price will be around $530 for this mini bubble. A full bubble may happen next year around halving which will create a new ATH and push BETI above 0.
November 03, 2015, 11:54:29 AM
Look at the 2 charts. I think something is really happening. The following 2 graphs are weekly RSI at MtGox and Bitstamp. It is now in the overbought zone, first time since the $1200 ATH. Historically, overbought weekly RSI is equivalent to a bubble. A "full bubble", however, would have weekly RSI > 90 but now it's only 76.
The following 2 graphs are daily RSI at MtGox and Bitstamp. It reached 90 few days ago, and is still staying overbought. Again daily RSI has never reached this level after the late 2013 bubble.
The following 2 graphs are daily RSI at MtGox and Bitstamp. It reached 90 few days ago, and is still staying overbought. Again daily RSI has never reached this level after the late 2013 bubble.
November 02, 2015, 11:42:23 PM
Hopefully we are leaving the -1.75 zone and heading to -1.5 at $412
Date: 2-Nov-2015
VWAP: 347.89
x: 1934
a: 0.00433
b: -0.85756
Rsq: 0.82334
The day's expected price: 1848.06
Actual price / expected price: 18.82%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -1.670
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 198.97
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 11964.09
Predicted date for today's price: 12-Oct-2014
Days ahead: -385.44
Daily price rank: 384
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00433270545089737++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.857560903415988+%29
Date: 2-Nov-2015
VWAP: 347.89
x: 1934
a: 0.00433
b: -0.85756
Rsq: 0.82334
The day's expected price: 1848.06
Actual price / expected price: 18.82%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -1.670
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 198.97
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 11964.09
Predicted date for today's price: 12-Oct-2014
Days ahead: -385.44
Daily price rank: 384
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00433270545089737++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.857560903415988+%29
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