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Topic: Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues (Read 2122 times)

legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
So, we are back in 2025, and I hate so much how they place those games all over the place but I will consider even the games in the Premier League on Tuesday being this week, same for La Liga



So games over 4 days, from 11 to 15, and that's it, I will not run this when only a league plays, it just feels wrong.
And before the games are even close, I will say that this is probably the worst pick of them all. I will just quote the current standings to have a better view of it, still positive before this round:

Total after 14 rounds and 136 games

- Individual bets balance +2.60
- Multiplier balance +22.58
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
Technically yes, my point is that you can bet on anything if it has value. For example, should we bet on odds of 20+? Sounds like a rare event. But if we know that the probability of it happening is around 1 in 10, then this will be a super-profitable bet.

Of course you can bet on anything, this is about keeping on betting on all events that matches a rule, so you're not randomly picking events, the best comparison would be trying to catch the knife with a trade and doing DCA, every day no matter the value same purchase

Another question is how to find a value bet and determine the "real" probability. It is difficult, yes, but sometimes such opportunities happen.

Well, that's the essence of gambling, if I would know that question I would be a billionaire now with a price on my head from all the bookies I've bankrupt.

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About the experiment, I will simply not run it this week, it makes zero sense with the events in England on boxing day, premier league plays again, so does another league the rest have a break, it's a complete mess and a parlay would simply be a two match selection which is stupid, I wouldn't even know how to count the rounds anymore, so no , pause on Christmas and NYE since it's a mess I don't want to deal with!!!!!
legendary
Activity: 2562
Merit: 1978
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
To be honest, I didn’t understand your reasoning at all. Was it in the context of the message I was responding to or in the context of my message?

In the context of the message you were responding to, picking the highest odds over x doesn't really make sense because you are not sure what to pick, with under 1.5 it's a clear criteria, with over 2 you have stuff like this:


So, you need another criteria, like an odd difference or else you end up betting on everything.
~

Technically yes, my point is that you can bet on anything if it has value. For example, should we bet on odds of 20+? Sounds like a rare event. But if we know that the probability of it happening is around 1 in 10, then this will be a super-profitable bet. Another question is how to find a value bet and determine the "real" probability. It is difficult, yes, but sometimes such opportunities happen.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
To be honest, I didn’t understand your reasoning at all. Was it in the context of the message I was responding to or in the context of my message?

In the context of the message you were responding to, picking the highest odds over x doesn't really make sense because you are not sure what to pick, with under 1.5 it's a clear criteria, with over 2 you have stuff like this:


So, you need another criteria, like an odd difference or else you end up betting on everything.

As for 2+ vs 2+ bets, you always have the option to place a double chance bet if you believe that the remaining third outcome is overvalued and mispriced.

Well, if you take a double chance for a team that is just above 2.0 then you end up with a bet under 1.5, so you might just as well do the same experiment I do but with double chances games instead of favorites in 1x2. Actually quite funny as a side experiment but I don't have the time for it.

--------------

Update:
Inter won, so uI pdated the balance to show it!
legendary
Activity: 2562
Merit: 1978
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
And what is the logic here?

None, it's just doing the opposite and I can't even think how you would be able to do it even in theory, forget about the number of matches, what do you do with draws?
You have for example Westham vs Brighton 2.78 vs 2.47, what's the take here, you bet on the lower or on the higher, what happens if you have slighter happy odds like Liverpool is having now for the draw, so while the minimum bet is a cleat thing as you can't have two favorites both under 1.5 over it...it's no man's land!~

To be honest, I didn’t understand your reasoning at all. Was it in the context of the message I was responding to or in the context of my message?
As for 2+ vs 2+ bets, you always have the option to place a double chance bet if you believe that the remaining third outcome is overvalued and mispriced.
There were two obvious games in this round where the bookmakers got it wrong: Aston Villa vs City and Barcelona vs Atletico. Both favourites lost, but they were favourites only because of the brand, if you look at the results of the games, they had at most equal chances.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
Round 14 update!

I have never been happier till now about a lost game, this was the second weekend I didn't have time to place the best and I checked the results, if Stuttgart hadn't lost with Pauli, right now the multi would have been one match from winning and a cashout of 17x would have been possible.



Quick math before the Inter game

Round 14
- Individual bets balance  +.2.06
- Multiplier balance -1

Total after 14 rounds and 136 games

- Individual bets balance +2.60
- Multiplier balance +22.58

Still positive, lol!  Grin
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
And what is the logic here?

None, it's just doing the opposite and I can't even think how you would be able to do it even in theory, forget about the number of matches, what do you do with draws?
You have for example Westham vs Brighton 2.78 vs 2.47, what's the take here, you bet on the lower or on the higher, what happens if you have slighter happy odds like Liverpool is having now for the draw, so while the minimum bet is a cleat thing as you can't have two favorites both under 1.5 over it...it's no man's land!

For the experiment, it will have to wait, I drove 1900km two days ago, I had no time for anything, I will recreate it from scratch again for this round, I'm not even sure who's playing who, I'm just catching up!

legendary
Activity: 2562
Merit: 1978
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
Betting on low odds doesn't guarantee Profit when it comes to sports betting. Just because the odds are favour of a particular team doesn't mean that it's a hundred percent sure that they would win. You might just be surprised that underdogs might end up winning the game. The overconfidence we have on some teams is one reason why we lose money and also low odds can be deceiving. I prefer to go with the over option with these category of games, it's more logical to go with over 1.5 but nothing is sure when it comes to gambling, you always have to play safe.

And what is the logic here? Do you think that bookmakers are pricing this outcome incorrectly? Don't you understand that it doesn't matter whether the coefficient is big or small, but it does matter whether it is profitable or not. You say that the OP's strategy does not guarantee success, but yours does? Are there any arguments here other than general reasoning.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 337
Betting on low odds doesn't guarantee Profit when it comes to sports betting. Just because the odds are favour of a particular team doesn't mean that it's a hundred percent sure that they would win. You might just be surprised that underdogs might end up winning the game. The overconfidence we have on some teams is one reason why we lose money and also low odds can be deceiving. I prefer to go with the over option with these category of games, it's more logical to go with over 1.5 but nothing is sure when it comes to gambling, you always have to play safe.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
Unfortunately, this is also a record in terms of losing outcomes: 8 out of 14! Just wow.

I knew it by the time I saw the multi, it was up to 81, I checked the bets, and a ton in the limit 1.45, 1.49, most dangerous of all, but I'm not surprised, I cried wolf so many times probably every wolf in the universe heard me by now

Ah lol round 13, of course we had bad luck

Round 13
- Individual bets balance  -5.6
- Multiplier balance -1

Total after 13 rounds and 126 games

- Individual bets balance +0.54
- Multiplier balance +23.58
legendary
Activity: 2562
Merit: 1978
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
This time I did place the bets in time and it was quite the day, 14 games, I think this is a record.


~

Unfortunately, this is also a record in terms of losing outcomes: 8 out of 14! Just wow. This is one of those black days that we talked about earlier - one such series turns the whole situation upside down and after that it is very difficult to return to the plus (at the very least it will take a long time).
But in fact the result of this round is really anomalous - I can't remember such a fall of the favorites. I remember last season I had a multi-bet where I lost 7 out of 8 outcomes, but not all the odds were small.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
Yunno that's not gonna deliver the same outcome, regardless of the odds all the time right? So yes, I don't find any thing challenging in this strategy -- especially since it's a single bet!!

It's not a single bet!
I post only the multiplier since it's easier to show the matches but the experiment counts also the individual match results, so it's now up to 126 matches bets if I got the counting right each round and didn't miss one so, for example, this round had 15 bets, 14 individual and the multiplier.

Also, quite funny, the multi-bet selection has won twice, that's why the multi-balance looks like this right now:
- Multiplier balance +24.58 with 12 wagered!
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1045
Goodnight, ohh Leo!!! 🦅
It's under 1.5 odds for the team to win, I'm not going for goals
I totally understand this, but what's more confusing is on which team your wager is ... In the descriptive photo, under the position where you got 1x2, your options are supposed to show up there... So I'm wondering, how did this turn out for y'all? Were you able to stick to the plan cus obviously, this is an old thread?


Unfortunately, the multi is already a loss, and although I say it a lot of times and prove to be wrong this might be the day we definitely turn red, 4 losses agsint 3 wins and my god the rest of the matches are even worse. Funny enough, we had all top teams screwing us till now so I'm eager to see what Barcelona and PSG will be doing tomorrow, we need 4+ losses tomorrow to turn the experiment into a loss, my bet would be on Milan Dortmund and Sociaedad which I don't even know what's doing there!
That's always a rough, but necessary turn in the game of football. I wasn't expecting that you'd constantly wager on the advantage of bigger teams against the smaller ones... Yunno that's not gonna deliver the same outcome, regardless of the odds all the time right? So yes, I don't find any thing challenging in this strategy -- especially since it's a single bet!!
hero member
Activity: 2604
Merit: 789
May be because:
I tried an experiment looks like it. The main difference that i made bets in all leagues every day.
In my experiment the odds were less than 1.1, no any analyze - just "odd is ok? lets bet", bankroll $100, bet size - $10(when the bankroll became $50 - bet size decreased to $5) The result was -$100 after 3weeks of  betting.

You missed the part about the proofs!
You ran an experiment betting on anything under 1.1 is hardly an experiment since it's obvious you would have missed matches, all leagues, and all kinds of sports, how do you even get under 1.1 odds to bet each day? I have 4 matches under 1.1 on my list, I would have bet only once every month based on this!

I hope I don't have to repeat myself, but I speak on data, collected week after week after week on as the same rule, the same leagues, no missed games, no doubling down, so if you try to prove something, well, you will need raw data too!  Wink
You can try to watch low leagues. They have matches everyday. And i bet at online events, so you can easily see such odds during the match. I made at least 3-5 bets per day from Mon to Th. At weekend i could bet non-stop.

The main advantage of your experiment is top leagues - they have less surprises. But even in these leagues there is place for random. And near the end of the season we can see additional problems due to strategy and the table.

I wish you gl, it is always interesting when somene ready to spend time and money and share the result with everyone.  But i`m sure that result will be disappointing.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
This time I did place the bets in time and it was quite the day, 14 games, I think this is a record.



Unfortunately, the multi is already a loss, and although I say it a lot of times and prove to be wrong this might be the day we definitely turn red, 4 losses agsint 3 wins and my god the rest of the matches are even worse. Funny enough, we had all top teams screwing us till now so I'm eager to see what Barcelona and PSG will be doing tomorrow, we need 4+ losses tomorrow to turn the experiment into a loss, my bet would be on Milan Dortmund and Sociaedad which I don't even know what's doing there!



hero member
Activity: 896
Merit: 654
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
...

Statistically you will win more or less the same amount in the long term, unless one of the two players is able to be a good gambler!
When we had betting competition in forum these two approaches were always the major part.
Of course to be able to get high odds you must bet against "the market" Roll Eyes it's not easy at all if you think of it, but each selection has an high ROI ...
You may be right about what statistics say about the end outcome of the tow regardless of the wagering amount, but in the end, the responsible note in gambling with low wagering can't be shortchanged for anything. And I can assure you that if luck did not visit the gambler early enough, the one wagering with a big risk is in serious trouble, which makes the lower wagering better overall. The tide could only change when the high wagerer is lucky early enough, and then he may win that Jackpot through the leverage of the risk. Notwithstanding, if the high-risk taker continues like that, he might lose back the won money fast too and even lose more than that.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
May be because:
I tried an experiment looks like it. The main difference that i made bets in all leagues every day.
In my experiment the odds were less than 1.1, no any analyze - just "odd is ok? lets bet", bankroll $100, bet size - $10(when the bankroll became $50 - bet size decreased to $5) The result was -$100 after 3weeks of  betting.

You missed the part about the proofs!
You ran an experiment betting on anything under 1.1 is hardly an experiment since it's obvious you would have missed matches, all leagues, and all kinds of sports, how do you even get under 1.1 odds to bet each day? I have 4 matches under 1.1 on my list, I would have bet only once every month based on this!

I hope I don't have to repeat myself, but I speak on data, collected week after week after week on as the same rule, the same leagues, no missed games, no doubling down, so if you try to prove something, well, you will need raw data too!  Wink
hero member
Activity: 2604
Merit: 789
Of course the main leagues decreases chances of losing, but 1.5 odds tell us that you need at least 2/3 win rate not to lose. It is impossible without analyze and choosing kust a part of matches for betting as for me.

I simply don't get it!
Why do people say it's impossible when you have the results here, archived and added for over 12 rounds and 4 months of matches?
Right now the individual matches are 5% of the bankroll up, I don't care about perceived results, I don't care about what things "should' be, the results are here, one after the other round after round, everyone can check the matches and the bets!

For sure in the long run, it might prove costly but right now it's no denying that it was profitable, small amounts of course but if anyone had copied this they would have won to date! Of course, this might turn bad in two weeks or 4 months but this is the whole point of the experiment, not feelings not assumptions but raw poofs!

May be because:
I tried an experiment looks like it. The main difference that i made bets in all leagues every day.
In my experiment the odds were less than 1.1, no any analyze - just "odd is ok? lets bet", bankroll $100, bet size - $10(when the bankroll became $50 - bet size decreased to $5) The result was -$100 after 3weeks of  betting.
The main difference that is in the leagues. But if you today bet on Manchester City(just exapmle) - you mostly lose the bet. The same time you have to bet if the odd is ok due to the experiment conditions. That`s why i`m talking about analyze. If you just remove some matches from the betting - it is easy enough to get profit with all other same conditions. But without analyze one day the number of mistakes become too high.
Let`s wait the result of the season, of course, but even 4 months don`t give a guarantee of the result at the end
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
Of course the main leagues decreases chances of losing, but 1.5 odds tell us that you need at least 2/3 win rate not to lose. It is impossible without analyze and choosing kust a part of matches for betting as for me.

I simply don't get it!
Why do people say it's impossible when you have the results here, archived and added for over 12 rounds and 4 months of matches?
Right now the individual matches are 5% of the bankroll up, I don't care about perceived results, I don't care about what things "should' be, the results are here, one after the other round after round, everyone can check the matches and the bets!

For sure in the long run, it might prove costly but right now it's no denying that it was profitable, small amounts of course but if anyone had copied this they would have won to date! Of course, this might turn bad in two weeks or 4 months but this is the whole point of the experiment, not feelings not assumptions but raw poofs!


hero member
Activity: 2604
Merit: 789
I tried an experiment looks like it. The main difference that i made bets in all leagues every day.
In my experiment the odds were less than 1.1, no any analyze - just "odd is ok? lets bet", bankroll $100, bet size - $10(when the bankroll became $50 - bet size decreased to $5) The result was -$100 after 3weeks of  betting.
Of course the main leagues decreases chances of losing, but 1.5 odds tell us that you need at least 2/3 win rate not to lose. It is impossible without analyze and choosing kust a part of matches for betting as for me.
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