The first Ponzi sign - huge advertising campaign WITHOUT real product.
Every ASIC vendor advertised (at least a little bit) before they had a
finished product. This does not imply that they didn't have a real design.
BFL ads are everywhere.
Obviously they have a good advertising budget. You can get this sort of funds when you have good investors who see some serious cash to be made.
And chips? Where are they?
Being produced? You realise that it takes a long time to produce them, right? This means that if the initial batch doesn't work (annoyingly high chance), it takes a long time to get the second batch. If that doesn't work either, you're forced to delay the shipment for a third, etc.
Where specs?
Why would they publish specs of their chips? The spec of the finished product is all that really matters to the customer.
Where intermediaries info? Where transparency?
Um, what do you consider to be "transparency"? I've noticed some pretty ridiculous goalpost-shifting over the last few months...every time they publish something, they apparently cease to be transparent if they don't publish
more.
You may think this looks like a scam, but the simple fact is that the outward appearance of a new company trying to release their first ASIC product looks pretty much exactly the same, so it would be 50/50 for a scam or no scam without evidence. However, consider this evidence:
- ASICMINER has working chips, so it is at least physically possible to produce mining ASICs
- bASIC apparently also has a small number of prototype chips (possibly from a MPW)
- BFL has sold FPGA products before, so they probably already had at least some of the required expertise, they know how mining works, etc.
- Selling ASICs can be very, very profitable. If their power usage is lower than their competitors, then they will remain profitable for longer...people will still be buying these for a long time
- Many are simply waiting to see real products before they order, myself included, resulting in a fresh wave of orders after they first ship
Having ruled out that it's impossible to produce ASICs, BFL is in a better position financially if they can produce a real product than if they can get away with a scam. Assuming they want to make money, it's therefore more likely that the products are real.