Topic: (Closed) Butter Bot!: Premier Bitstamp, and BTC-E EMA Trading Platform (Closed) - page 106. (Read 274784 times)

So at least for me, the logic makes complete sense as to what happened for me.

At 1:01 AM I got this email:

EMA diff is at 0.011% (1 BTC = 95.42 USD) at mtgox.

A buy order is imminent!

The corresponding number on the Bot chart was:
1:00   95.420   94.617   94.607   0.011%

Then, I got this email at 6:01 AM:
EMA diff is at 0.291% (1 BTC = 95.89997 USD) at mtgox.

A buy order was triggered.

The corresponding number on the Bot chart was:
6:00   95.900   95.264   94.988   0.291%

When I check MtGox, my buy order was sent at the correct time as well:
2013/07/28 06:00:35

It bought at the correct time for me, which is 6:00 AM.

Pablo sent you a PM..  My Bot License key is no longer working?


Actually getting 2 errors. Not sure if they are related..


1.  Error connection to BTCBOTS.com API....    Never seen this error..

2.  Invalid License Key..


Connection to Mt Gox seems ok at the moment..

I'm playing around with $2500. But I don't think that it's the transaction size.  Since yesterday, there's been an error message displayed by the bot stating that "an error occurred while loading the mtgox funds". It goes away for a few seconds and then comes back for hours. It's still on as I type this.  When it's up the bot can conduct any transactions through mtgox.  The late sell and late buy that it executed occurred hours after the initial "imminent buy/sell" transaction email, missing several hours where it could have executed the trade, if mtgox's API were functioning properly.

Getting gox-ed as usual.

The bot is very smart and works well though.

Thanks for your response Pablo.

Your bot works very well. I've already made back what I paid for it (3x) with it's first trade. I'm sure that there will be loses in the future, but that's part of the EMA strategy.  But to reiterate, your trading bot works VERY WELL!!!

It's mtgox that's messing things up as usually.

Thanks again.

Huh, I guess this must be the one time where everyone else had issues and I didn't.

After much discourse with you guys I eventually just threw in my hat and went with the 0, 0.25 settings. And this morning, I see that I got an email saying it was imminent shortly after the crossover, and then I didn't get a trigger email until the second threshold had been met, and it was able to process my transaction without issue.

Out of curiosity, could this issue possibly be based on transaction size?

All of my transactions have been under 1000 USD/10 BTC, are you guys running with a much bigger bankroll?

Hi again Jubalix ,

Let me take your points one at a time:

1. There is a misunderstanding here, EMA does not attempt to travel into the future and apply the information to the present. Rather, it takes historical data, processes it through its algorithm and applies this information to attempt to identify a trend in the present. I am not aware of any system that attempts to time travel into the future and convey the data into the present, because that is, well, impossible. Best case, you can take present data and attempt to make an estimation of the future. To repeat though, EMA takes historical data and processes it to try to identify trends in the immediate present, which strikes me as perfectly reasonable.

2. I agree that this wouldn't apply as not everyone is using EMA, but also, when you consider the day trading bots large banks and clearinghouses use, you realize that it's not a matter of how many people adopt it but rather a matter of how much of the market these people can move, even with a perfect (theoretical) system. Bitcoin is a billion dollar market, I don't think we could put together enough players within any system to effect the market, even assuming a theoretical, perfect system which does not exist. When you realize that the market is very large to move and that no system is perfect (effective systems tend to be profitable, not infallible), it becomes clear this is a moot point.

3. This isn't true for the same reasons discussed in point 2. Furthermore, you seem to be discounting all trading systems, not just EMA. It is a point of fact that there are effective trading systems (again, effective does not mean infallible which you seem to assume), even a cursory review of Gomboo's thread, which I believe I linked before, would reveal to you a whole host of effective trading systems. Commercial banks and clearing houses have devoted their existences to trading systems. Yes, there have been big issues with these, but overall most of the systems used have been profitable when measured over time, otherwise this institutions would not exist, furthermore, traders would not exist as the whole market would be a large casino.

Please let me know if I may be of service in any other way .

Pablo.

Thanks Pablo..

We know its not yours guys fault..

I am really thinking about moving over to BTC-E...

Hey Guys,
   The Gox API has always been pretty bad, as those of you running the Beta know, we were able to mitigate API lag very well for the past couple of weeks as you should have seen no issues whatsoever. The fact now is that the API is not only lagged, which we can mitigate, but completely down, which leaves us with few if any options. We are still looking at how we can improve this situation but we may have to wait for it to pass. I would encourage those who are able to trade on BTC-E which never has API issues.

Please be aware that the bot will recover from the Mt. Gox issues automatically once the API is accessible again.

We are taking this problem very seriously and I am personally concerned with your posts; we will do everything possible to improve this situation.

If anyone has any concerns they would like to discuss on a one to one basis, please drop me an email:

[email protected]

Pablo.

Thank you for such a polite answer

I think the maths/logic however may disprove EMA or any other method for several reasons

[1] Essentially any system is trying to time travel to the future and convey that in formation to the present.
[2] If any system did work then everyone would be forced to adopt that system. Not every one can profit over time as all trades balance out to a zero sum of losses and profits as every seller requires a buyer thus the as every one switched to that system, it would cancel out its winning effect
[3] the compounding effect of even small repeatable wining strategy e.g. even 0.5% or 0.05% a day would soon have you owning the whole market. This has not happened in any market...

I accept maybe everyone is not using EMA so this may not have kicked in yet for [2]

Same issue here Kuroth. My bot missed the entry to buy this morning on mtgox several times because of the API issue. Then, because it "holds" the buy order until the API is up again, it did so when BTC was a $1 more than it had sold it for the day before. Not the bots fault, but its just frustrating. I know that you have to be patient with the EMA trading strategy, but this whole API thing is a real bummer.

The bot seems to want to do its job, unfortunately however, the mtgox API is making it a losing strategy at this point.

Pablo should we be concerned?  My bot "seems" to be working but every time now that I click on it, it has the error on the top trying to reconnect?


But if I just mouse over it, I can see my balance ok...  Almost like its not really having issue but saying its having API issues???


Also looks like it did a buy at 1 or 2 am this morning ok..  I went to bed short and now I am long..


So what should we do???


  Thanks!

Despite of eventual API problem, the site was really down :

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-charts-down-263741

I don't know much about this stuff, but could it have to do with mtgox's API.

Because once again, the EMA's crossed early this morning (buy signal) and my buy thresholds were met, but my bot won't function properly because I keep getting the message "error loading funds from mtgox". Yesterday when this happened I was told that it was because mtgox's API was having trouble at the time. Seems like mtgox is always having trouble.

Now because of this API issue, I lost out on what could have been a profitable trade.  Instead, I will be purchasing at a price much higher.  Because of this API issue I'm selling low and buying high.

Bitcoin Charts down :/

http://bitcoincharts.com/

That's fine; the bot has been holding a "sell" command since about 1AM EDT.

Please let me know if I can be of service at all .

Pablo.

Hi Pangia ,
   With the settings you mention and the outputs you posted there should definitely have been a trade. My guess is that the bot executed it the next time the thresholds were crossed and the Gox API was available. The bot is smart in the sense that if it can't execute a trade because the API is down it will keep trying but a trade will only happen if at the time it reaches the API a sell order is still standing.

We are looking into this issue, we have built in strong mitigation into the Beta you guys are running (the old bot would not have handled this well) in the sense that it recovers once the API is back online, but if the Mt. Gox API is plain down, there really isn't much anyone can do until it is back up. My advice would be to let your bot run and wait for the API to recover, just let the bot do it's job.

Please be sure to let me know if you have any other questions.

Pablo.

There was a trade early this morning at 5:59am on mtgox for me.  The weird thing is that my SELL Thresholds are Sell 1 = .13   Sell 2 = .19

I received an email notification from the bot at 12:18am "EMA diff is at -0.211% 1BTC = 94.25 USD A sell order is imminent!"

But the sell order didn't go through until 5:59am "EMA diff is at -0.667% (1 BTC = 93.925 USD) A sell order was triggered!", despite there being 4 subsequent hours of negative diffs that exceeded my second threshold.

My question is why wasn't the sell order triggered earlier because after the initial email (sell order imminent) the EMA diffs from 0100am to 0500am were as follows:

0100am = -0.275
0200am = -0.411
0300am = -0.572
0400am = -0.643
0500am = -0.667

If I'm understanding the bot correctly, those EMA diffs should have triggered my second sell threshold to execute a sell order but it didn't happen.

Is the issue perhaps the mtgox API?

Thanks again.

I noticed the error a couple times today but it seemed to correct itself almost as soon as I notice it..


Bot did a trade on Mt Gox  early thing morning I believe..
   

Hey Pangia ,
   We are looking into this right now, the Mt. Gox API seems to be in partcularly bad shape right now. BTC-E should be fine.

Have you seen any trades at all on Mt. Gox?

Pablo.

Hi Pablo,

All day long my bot has a message "an error occurred while loading the mtgox funds. Retrying......".

Is there anything that I can do to assist the bot?