Topic: (Closed) Butter Bot!: Premier Bitstamp, and BTC-E EMA Trading Platform (Closed) - page 45. (Read 274783 times)

If your settings make the bot react to such a small and insignificant dip (time wise), your settings are wrong, not me.


Looking forward to your bot (or your suggestions even how to code that feature!).

my friend, you are wrong,
is just an illustration, you can see the test by yourself in the bot, 60-70% of the trades return a lower % if the original sell.
thats becuase it sell high, and buy high...

its easy, it just lack a simple engine to buy low when the chance is there,

needs diversification and buy trigger rules.

its.
so.
easy.
-

That is because your settings are too aggressive. It is not a daytrading bot. The whole idea behind EMA based trading is to smooth over such quick disturbances, and only react on clear up- and downtrends.

Hey ,
  It's not a "buzzword", it is a long term strategy, it's also a trend strategy, not a High Frequency Trader (HFT). The fact that you don't like the word doesn't change that EMA will work best over the long term for the multitude of reasons described.  

I frankly don't see your issue with time frames as we have provided them, they back test your periods to the day, so if you back test for 6 months today, it will back test 6 months to the day, if you back test 1 month from now, it will back test 1 month to the day so there really is no way to game this as we can't control what markets happen in those time frames.

Now I like your idea of including custom time frames, that's something we could definitely look at for the next version, I mean that, there really is no issue.

I agree that the strategy can be improved, we are working on a new engine, because all strategies can be improved; you are however ignoring several people who posted that are making and have made a profit with EMA; it's not fair to pick and choose what data you want to accept in your argument and what you will ignore.

I agree that the strategy does not guarantee profits for everyone at all times, if you find such a strategy (which doesn't exist), you will be posting from your LearJet; what I can tell you is that: EMA will tend to generate more profit than not OVER TIME. Goomboo has made this argument quite successfully over 50+ pages, so it's not like we invented.

I again encourage you to review Goomboo's thread, he is the absolute authority on this issue and I think there is a lot you could gain from reading it. I mean absolutely no offense, I think that if you took the time to read about the strategy, maybe peruse Goomboo's thread and post there as well you would gain some insight on something that other people are telling you has worked for them and something that has been discussed ad nauseum in one of the most respected trading threads on this forum (Goombo's thread).

EMA as Applied to Bitcoin (Goomboo): https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/goomboos-journal-60501



Pablo.

let me illustrate what bot does most of the time to lose your bitcoins,

1º sell "high" because there is down tren
2º wait the trend to be so strong that yelds you a profit, however almost never is that strong so it cut loses finding the up trend again,


the two events that triggers a Sell and a Buy, are always is thoses positions: "point 1 higher in the graph than point 2"
however the situation is not profitable, bot sold "high" then bough back "high" again
its always doing same thing,  it just would make money when there are really big and long down trends.

any way, Pablo is giving great support, but i also loosed lot of bitcoins with the bot

7% more than b&h, which this question was all about.

I don't refute the argument that the bot could be improved. I'm sure the devs are open to suggestions. Go ahead, I'm sure you have much to share.

If you expect the same setting to work for both 1 week and 2 year timeframes, you don't understand EMA. Looking at 1 and 2 year time frames, the bot would have made more fiat _and_ BTC than buy and hold. 6 month profit is clearly less (but still profit), and 3 month profit is very close to b&h. Smaller timeframes don't make sense because EMA _is_ a long time strategy, not daytrading.

With that background, looks like you were just begging the question with flawed premises to begin with. EMA is a long time strategy, and at 1+ year timeframe beats b&h with a clear margin.

How about now you did something constructive? Suggest ways in which to improve the bot (in your opinion) so that this isn't just useless time wasting from your part.

The bot's not meant to trade all time frames.  Pablo's said this repeatedly.  You don't like what it does, oh well. Don't buy it.  Go write your own bot since you obviously are much smarter than all of us 

Nitpick... please learn how to read: "So, yeah, just post an example for MtGox that works in all time frame and I'll send you 1BTC."

There is no shaky ground here, and you know very well the setting you posted doesn't work for the other time frames... you are the one nitpicking what you choose to post in order to avoid the argument I expressed and that you realized can't actually refute it with any numbers.

shapemaker

(42.85 > 39.76)  ?

honestly, you find a bot its working if you get in 2 LONG years a profit of 7% ? and thas just becuase you found some configuration that worked in the past,
that means nothing as price rised a lot,

jbssm is quite right in my opinion,

bot just need a trading engine,

That's not the issue. The issue is that since you don't provide custom dates to test the strategy then the only option is to ask for a setting that works for different dates in you backtesting.
If you did, it would be obvious that you couldn't find one setting that worked for the 1st 6 months (I hope 6 months are long term enough for you) of an year and for the last 6 months of the year. The settings would be different in those 2 periods of 6 months and that defeats the purpose of the bot.

Those setting don't exist and I know it because like some user suggested I downloaded the data from the bitcoins charts site and I was testing it, and guess what... what every trader in the financial market knows... there are no EMA (SMA, WMA) crossing strategies that improve your shares capitalization in different time periods.

So please don't tell us this long term strategy buzzword as an excuse, cause you are just using it to mistaken the people.

I demonstrated a working setting for the longest available timeframe, which yields more in fiat and BTC than buy and hold. This alone demonstrates your argument is on shaky ground. You also seem to have problems understanding the whole EMA "strategy".

However, the same settings also work for 1 year ($7827 > $6394). Feel free to do the rest yourself, it's clear by now you're gonna just nitpick your way out of paying.

Is this offer open to everyone?
My settings yield a real BTC increase on every time frame on BTC-e, my preferred exchange.
2x BTC increase after 1 year.

I hear a lot of confusion in his thread about how EMA trading works. This may not be a strategy for most newbies...
With half-automated trading (I manually exit the short position) I'm up 20% in BTC the past two weeks. Again, YMMV

people who say "i dont care about bitcoin, i like to make dollars"  are just wrong, they do not realise that making bitcoins equals to make MUCH more dollars.
than just "make dollars" due the fact price rises.
fible1 you are always writing in a very amiable behaviour, traying to response all people and giving good support,

i never said nothing but i started with 1btc time ago and i already loosed nearly half of it, i end up forced to stop using it and trying to catch
trends manually, buying manually at any non greedy price, to slowly get back my money

thats why i really really think you should backtest the strategy proposed, becuase make dollars in a up trend, and btc's in a down trend makes no sense
because to make btc's the down trend must be really huge
and to make dollars bot doesn't need to make anything but wait.

if we asume as we should, that btc will always go over time, we must focus into profit at any trade to get bitcoins, if 60% of the trades are lossing trades
the bot is just badly tweaked,

really hope you test the strategy proposed,  lets make this bot something configurable that worth to pay


cheers

I think we've been quite clear that EMA is a long term strategy; so asking for settings that work in all time frames doesn't make sense. In the short term trades are pretty random (be they profit or loss), this has to do with the fact that trades in any strategy have to be looked at in aggregate (Think of the Law of Large Numbers). One trade or two trades or even ten trades don't mean much in any strategy.

You can see this in the back testing engine, if you back test 1 week, your results will change day to day from profit to loss, etc. If you back test 6 months to a year you will see pretty steady results (be they profit or loss they will remain so with the same settings over the long term).

I don't claim there are magic settings that work in all time frames, as a matter of fact, I have been pretty adamant that EMA trades, like all strategies, need to be looked at in aggregate over the long term. Do you want a real in depth discussion of this point and of EMA as applied to Bitcoin in general?

Please see here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/goomboos-journal-60501

Butter is heavily based on Gomboo's principles, there you find an educated discussion on the mathematics and principles of EMA trading beyond what we can provide here.

I hope that helps :=).

Pablo.

Feel free to read my question that was quite correctly worded.
Post some settings that make BTC profit in ALL the backtest timeframes of Gox and you get your 1BTC.

If you fiddle with the past numbers you can always find one case where it works, thats easy and... doesn't mean absolutely nothing.

No, the market makes USD in an uptrend and the market makes BTC in a downtrend, this has nothing to do with the bot, those are the simple laws of the market.

It's annoying that you are always avoiding the subject, claiming some "magic" settings that give profit (that you never post except in some specific timeframe of BTC-e) be straight about you product and let people know that it will cost them profit under the current and past market conditions in exchange for the security of knowing they will never be totally out of USD in case of some major market crash.

That is what you product does, your product doesn't do the 4000% profit you claim, bitcoin does those 4000% by itself.

Here's one that yields more BTC over 2 years (the max time frame). Buy in was at 2.515 dollars each, so 100/2.515 = 39.76 BTC for $100.

Holding that 39.76 BTC for 2 years, then selling for $800 yields $31809. The bot manages $34287 in the same time, which also obviously is more in BTC (42.85 > 39.76). QED.

Feel free to send my BTC to the address in my sig.

Hey Guys ,
   I think it's important to understand that Butter makes USD in an uptrend and BTC in a downtrend. That’s just the nature of the EMA strategy. We had some discussions on this early on but I think it's worth mentioning again that the thread has grown, I will probably put this in a couple of places of prominence to make it clearer.

Pablo.