Topic: (Closed) Butter Bot!: Premier Bitstamp, and BTC-E EMA Trading Platform (Closed) - page 48. (Read 274783 times)

I'd like to know if anyone else has had the same problem with their bot as I'm currently having.

What happens is if I use the pause button to disable the bot so I can do a manual trade, within 15 seconds of re enabling the bot it executes a trade, undoing the trade I just did manually, regardless of market condidtions. So then I disable it again, do my manual trade over, this goes on 3 times, and all the while the bot is sending me 'sell' emails while disabled. So I have to exit Chrome to make it stop. The problem with closing Chrome, I learned, is that it clears the logs.

Now in order to give Pablo the logs he needs to debug this, I have to re enable the bot & let it behave this way again, selling for no good reason, and I've been waiting for the market to be in a good place for the bot to sell in, so as to minimize my damages from the random sell decision.

I was hoping someone else has the same experience & can get your logs to Pablo, too to expedite the patch development processz.

I'd like to propose that the developers add password protection to the bot's pause trading & options buttons to protect it from unauthorized tinkering. Of course the use of this password protect feature would be optional, selected by a checkbox.

if you change your settings for trends it could perform better like the timeframe from april to october where no big moves where made, but thats not the idea of a bot for me, it should run automatic in background.

I really think it would perform better on usd-btc chart with ema but we need a graph, i can't make it or better it would take me much time and work to make as i have no knowledge of creating graphs in coding and impleting trading algos to it...

As you see in the 11 trades it made profit in august 2012 for selling higher, but it bought back slighty higher, then it made profit on the begin 2013 up and made a bit loss after till the new up what we have now, but where it bought back also with bit of loss... if their is no big drop now it will sell after the next higher up with profit probably when buying back on a drop again.

On big ups it would be better to shorten the timeframes and do long when not much moving in price, its still better then holding only with few trades.
But you need to keep your computer on for 2y to make 11 trades, for me it would be no problem, my computer what have miners connected could do also the bot trading so its not much more electricy cost at all.

It would be interesting to see how different trading methods will perform on btc-usd and usd-btc with different settings, I think we have data enough to figure it out.

The developer(s) of this bot should also implent more options also if you want to do btc-usd or usd-btc trading and maybe some auto detection of big ups/downs to adjust the settings in such periods automaticly.

On a downtrend you could also make a lot profit with good sells and buys so their is short trading a good option.
On ups you better hold till it goes down again and trade into that downtrend.

When no big movings the trading strategy must also be changes.. i readed only alot about ema last days, I'm don't know enough about other algos but guess we could figure it all out what is best in what trends to do.

At least it helped me already for my manual trades as I see the charts different now...

Can someone please create a graph of btc-usd for a certain time frame such as the past 2 months and then one for usd-btc for the same period.  And then put them both here for us to see?

I still cannot figure out what the difference is.  I mean, I understand that there should be a difference, but I cannot visualize what that difference is.  Having both graphs posted here, ideally with EMA lines, would really help me out.

Thanks!

Finaly i found a setting to increase btc in the longrun with this bot...

Setting buy threashold to 0% and sell threashold to 5%

Mtgox settings:
30 min
0.6% fee
starting fund $100
Buy Threashold 0%
Sell Threashold 5%

Trades made in test run over past 2y:
20.11.2013 18:02:00   buy   596.624    $34129.68   34029.68%
19.11.2013 15:02:00   sell   613.000    $34335.69   34235.69%
04.05.2013 02:32:00   buy   98.100    $5528.00   5428.00%
03.05.2013 14:32:00   sell   83.150    $5561.37   5461.37%
16.04.2013 18:32:00   buy   76.500    $5147.48   5047.48%
16.04.2013 00:32:00   sell   77.000    $5178.55   5078.55%
12.04.2013 23:32:00   buy   93.000    $6292.36   6192.36%
10.04.2013 20:32:00   sell   175.000    $6330.35   6230.35%
20.08.2012 05:32:00   buy   9.634    $350.60   250.60%
19.08.2012 21:02:00   sell   8.300    $352.72   252.72%
24.11.2011 01:32:00   buy   2.325    $99.40   -0.60%

As you can see it would make more btc and so also more usd.
It lose btc when btc price is decreasing because of big drop like in april...

Only 11 Trades in 2y...

I'll play more with the settings, other please do the same and search for settings where your btc value really increase in longterm...

I'll post more settings when I find settings with real profit.

Edit:
Anyway it would be nice to see what the profit was when the chart was usd-btc and not btc-usd...

I am glad someone pointed this out as this crossed my mind when I read the last page.

Trading with a longterm strategy like ema vs a increasing value is in fact just a slow sell off of BTC so sure your usd is volume is increasing as you sell in the longterm just your BTC for a increasing Price.

Trading with ema vs a decreasing value would mean you make more of the increasing item and so also more of the decreasing item...

So Holding vs ema in increasing value would always mean that holding would make more, the problem is you get also out of btc when you need fiat money from time to time, so a Trading strategy should be getting more btc, so you could sell from your extra btc and keep your initial btc or get more btc when you make more with trading then you need in fiat..


So maybe the developer could change it to usd-btc or add it as option.

The graph should show usd value vs btc so you see usd getting worth less vs btc, and then run a test vs previous data if it would make btc and so more usd with the ema strategy...

My bot made now 3 trades.. it started with $213 bought 0.35 btc sold them and bought back 0.309 btc, 3 trades says nothing but it will decrease my btc in the longterm for 100% sure...

Every trading strategy needs a benchmark to which it will relate and measure it's success. In trading stocks traders mostly use S&P 500 as that benchmark. If you are trading stocks/US$ and you end with less value than simply buying S&P 500 and holding it, usually it's considered bad strategy. If you trade cryptocurrency, BTC/US$, end you end with less value than Buy&Hold strategy - you are doing it wrong. Now, increasing your US$ portfolio not necessarily means you will in the long run end with more than Buy&Hold, but increasing BTC, due to a long term deflation and upward trend in BTC, it is certain to beat Buy&Hold. Deflation is built into BTC, but even if it was not, long term trend since 2009 is obvious, and there is not a single analysis that predicts sliding of BTC value in the long term.

To summarize: If you are using bots in trading, and you are increasing your US$ amount you may be (but not necessarily) trading successfully, if you are increasing your BTC amount you are certainly trading successfully.

A decent strategy could be to always sell the same amount of BTC.
When the market condition allows it, by buying using your USD profits the BTC balance will increase slightly. When this happens put the extra BTC aside, rinse and repeat.

E.g. if you start with 5 BTC and you end up after a trade with 5.13 BTC, put the 0.13 aside and keep selling 5 BTC.
Which means as I have already said, buy low, sell high and then buy again low(er).

The discussions of profiting USD vs BTC are missing the point.

The real question is, does the EMA strategy beat buy-and-hold (i.e., will I have more or less converted BTC after using the bot)? The answer seems to be it depends on the conditions of the market.
During this recent insane rally, I don't see any EMA beating buy-and-hold. Another algorithmic strategy I'm using similarly performed worse than buy-and-hold in this period. I have had success trading half-manually with this bot entering the short position and then manually buying back BTC when I have some gains and I see a trend reversal. EMA has a lag in tracking the trend reversal and the market is moving very fast.

I've been using the bot with close supervision for about 2 weeks and I'm up about 8% in BTC. The largest gain was made by manually buying back during the flash crash two days ago. YMMV.

now the bot buys when it see uptrend in btc price and sell on downtrend.

If you change the direction it buys usd on uptrend of usd and sell usd on downtrend of usd.
If btc price increase usd is going down and if btc price decrease usd is going up, as in the longterm usd is going down and btc up it will increase the btc volume what also increase your usd volume...

lets say over the last 2 years...

bot start with $100 and sell them for 43 BTC.
USD price is decreasing so it dont buy.
Now comes an up of BTC bot still dont buy USD.
Now a Drop comes to BTC and the bot will buy USD as USD is in uptrend.

When BTC going up again the BOT sell its USD as their is a downtrend in USD

On that way the bot would probably made much more BTC in that 2y and because BTC is general increasing and not decreasing it will also grow your USD value.

Its also easier to take fiat money out of it, as you can sell some of your extra "generated" coins without loosing your starting stack.

Please explain how to trade usd-btc not btc-usd.  I'm afraid I don't see the difference.

ok lets say you started 2y ago...
the bot would have buy 43.xx btc
after 2y you have 12-13k usd "profit"
but you have only 22-23 btc left...
how much usd would you have now when you sell 22-23 btc and how much when you sell 43 btc?

its loosing money when it trade for longterm vs a increasing value...

it must trade usd-btc not btc-usd
you would also make more usd with that and if it was option you could change it anyway...

Now you losing money no matter what settings... even when your usd volume increase...

Would the bot see btc as the currency and usd the thing to trade then it would generate more btc and so also usd ( you always can sell off your btc for usd and because you have more you have also more usd )...

Till now the bot made only a buy for me i keep it running as i have only $200 on mtgox so no problem for that amount...
But from all test with different settings their was no way to get profit out from previous data, all settings lost btc...

So Probably i should ask for a refund and not posting here?

There is no secret and you don't need any chart or excel spreadsheet.
It is simple arithmetic / common sense: every time you sell high and THEN buy low the balance in BTC increases.

Assuming you are operating in a commission free market for the sake of simplicity:
You buy 1BTC at $650 and hold till the value rises to $700, then you sell > you have $700 that means a $50 profit.
Now you wait very patiently for the price to drop below $650. At $640 you buy and hold. Now you have 1.09375 BTC.

Rinse and repeat 100 times and your balance in BTC will increase. Is it worth your time? Probably not because it is unlikely that BTC value would drop to 630, 610, 590, 410 and so on and even with a sawtooth-like pattern it will keep rising and rising and rising.

There will be instances where you will buy higher that 650 and sell higher than 700 and slightly increase the balance in BTC simply because you are leveraging on a higher BTC balance but the increase will be negligible.

So if you have the money to do so, every time there is a sensible price drop, just buy new BTC with fresh money. You don't need a BOT to do so, you just need a chart.

There is value IF YOU WANT TO MAKE USD

itod, you have a certain opinion about the long term value of BTC.  You think that taking profits in USD is hurting people financially.  Not everyone shares your opinion.  Some of us are using this bot strictly to gain USD account value.  I get that is contrary to what you want, but it doesn't make it less valid.  You want a bot that will gain you btc over time and this is not necessarily that bot.  I am not sure how else to explain it.

I absolutely didn't say that. What I've asked is to see some profitability stats, but it's treated as super-secret data instead to be analyzed by the community. No need to see the exact amounts how many someone traded, normalize it to units (BTC/US$). For example, if you started with 2.4 BTC, divide start/end figures with 2.4 and let's see how much is gained for 1 BTC. Than we will see if there is a value to this bot or not. Maybe some trading strategies produced gains in BTC.

So it appears there's no value in this bot then?

  ^
This

If you don't understand this, you are hurting yourself financially in the long term.