Topic: (Closed) Butter Bot!: Premier Bitstamp, and BTC-E EMA Trading Platform (Closed) - page 85. (Read 274808 times)

Bug when hovering over icon:



Any open spots for a more recent beta test?  

I keep getting this error.



All my MTGox Api settings are correct. I recently reinstalled the plugin this morning.

Hi,

I have a suggestion for the ButterBot developers that I feel would be a great benefit if implemented. It's automatic dynamic optimization, and here's how I envision it working.

The bot would be constantly backtesting in the background, in 1 month increments moving backwards by 1 week at a time, taking snapshots of the pricing curve & testing every possible options setting against that curve to determine the most profitable settings for that given snapshot, or preset of market condition. Then it would move back a week, & do it all over again- over & over.

Eventually the bot would have determined the most profitable settings to use in any given market condition, and could then keep on the lookout for a week's worth of pattern change, and switch the settings to match the most profitable preset for that week's market conditions as if they were going to continue all month.

Viola! Self optimizing bot.

What do people think?

-NginUS

Hmmm,
   It's certainly an interesting post and his back testing results he posts for the short/mid term are pretty good. He's making an assumption for all of this however that I tend to disagree with. He is discounting long term back testing for several reasons. I disagree with that as his reasoning seems to be that the older data represents pretty unique market conditions and that only more recent data has predictive value.

I don't agree because EMA as a long term strategy necessarily has to be back tested over the long term, the 3 month frame he is using is a functional but bare minimum window. The longer you back test for the more likely your results will have a predictive value as it takes hundreds of aggregate trades to cover unique trades that radically deviate from the mean. In the short term your results are most likely the result of mean deviators, be they positive or negative.

To deal with this he is manually discounting mean deviators (April 10 deal he mentions); you can't do this artificially, pick and chose your time frames as these sorts of deviate situations will arise, you have to look at them in aggregate to get reliable results (which he disagrees with). I am not discounting what he's saying, I just think he's using bare minimum windows of time which won't necessarily reflect accurate predictive results (and he's also kind of picking them around events). Still it's a good analysis.

This is one of those things that you have to make your own mind up on. I feel that a lot of what he says has merit and I think that it's (mostly) a reasonable argument. I'm not sure that I would personally use his logic in my personal trading however. I repeat, its not that the logic is blatantly wrong, it's just that its debatable and I personally fall on the other side of that debate.

I found this interesting post from oda.krell over at Goomboo's Journal Thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3106359


This i.e. "EMA20+10" means: Short EMA 20 / Long EMA 10
And the Threshold "-0.4/0.4" means: Buy: 0/0.4 Sell: 0/0.4
Right?

What do you think of his settings?

Hi M ,
  You are correct; although the next full release will include independent settings for each exchange, the current one does not, however the recommended settings are still valid if you trade by groupingthe low or high fee exchanges and ignoring the others.

I hope that answers your question .

Please do not hesitate to let me know if you need anything.

Pablo.

How do you set different settings for the different exchanges?  I thought the settings you put in affected all of the exchanges at once.

Ok, so bottom line, I made a mistake; I forgot to include the new EMA values with the differential starter settings. The values have been modded on the post and here they are again; please accept my apologies for this.

Values:


We recommend the following starter settings for Mt. Gox:

Short EMA: 10 Long EMA: 21
Buy 1: 0 Buy 2: 0.25
Sell 1: 0 Sell 2: 0.25
2 hour time window.

The following settings are for Bitstamp and BTC-e:

Short EMA: 20 Long EMA: 42
Buy 1: 0 Buy 2: 0.15
Sell 1: 0 Sell 2: 0.1
30 minute time window.

Please let me know if you have any questions.

Pablo.

Sounds legit. But who knows if the trend that was established the last 2 months is the most successfull one for the future?
There are so many unknowns (mtgox, diff, ltc, fed. restrictions, silk road etc. - you name them) in the btc calculation... perhaps the last two month were the most untypical regarding the price trend - who knows?

In general: Isn't EMA about long term trading under the same conditions?
And furthermore: the given tools only allow 'us' (butterbot customers) to look into the past.
So when Pablo speaks of internal back testing, i assume he uses the same methods we use? --> 'run test'
Otherwise: what's the point about the back testing feature at all?

Grinny, if you are looking for settings that are applicable to moving forward in your trading strategy, I would suggest that crypto is evolving, and so are it's trends.  6 months ago is not an accurate picture of where the currency is now, or where it will be tomorrow.  I would look closer at the numbers when evaluated over the last two months to formulate your strategy going forward.

To be honest: I'm verrry irritated now.
The Bitstamp-Preset that Pablo presented is actually one of the worst i ever saw within butterbot - regarding the automated backtesting results.
But since Pablo is the dev, I trust his analysis on backtesting...
...this leads me to the assumption, that perhaps there's s.th. wrong with my butterbot?

I added an image that shows the mentioned setting along with some old setting i used a while ago.
Perhaps Pablo is able to clarify what's the matter here...

Based on the ability to test on all three exchanges now, it looks to me like GOX is the place to trade EMA.  I have had better using RSI (not butter bot of course) on Bitstamp.

I want to know what your settings were...

Are you sure about your settings, Pablo???

0/0.15
0/0.10

30min
Bistamp?

Gives me only 70% within 1 year and a loss on any other time span...

while my settings forecast a 960% earning....

*********************************
Starter Settings Announcement:
*********************************

As those of you who have explored the new tools have likely noticed, there is a difference in how EMA works between high and low fee exchanges; based on internal back testing we have adjusted recommended "Starter" settings to the following:

We recommend the following starter settings for Mt. Gox:

We recommend the following starter settings for Mt. Gox:

Short EMA: 10 Long EMA: 21
Buy 1: 0 Buy 2: 0.25
Sell 1: 0 Sell 2: 0.25
2 hour time window.

The following settings are for Bitstamp and BTC-e:

Short EMA: 20 Long EMA: 42
Buy 1: 0 Buy 2: 0.15
Sell 1: 0 Sell 2: 0.1
30 minute time window.


(The shorter time window should also make things more exciting to watch )

The difference in settings lies in the fact that EMA works differently between high trading fee and low trading fee exchanges.

Please do not hesitate to let me know if you have any questions .

Pablo.

Hi Seleme ,
   We are working on hosting right now, after that is released we will most likely roll out Altcoins pretty quickly .

Please let me know if you need anything .

Pablo.

Hi guys, haven't checked this for a while... is there any news about btc-e altcoins feature?

And maybe it is a time to check mcxnow too, their popularitiy is growing by day.

worked for me! thx!

Hey ,
   We tracked down the issue, it was just a small glitch on our server. Anyone having this issue please just reset your bot and the issue will be resolved .

Pablo.

Hi Grinny ,
   We will look into this now; please ignore it for the time being, it will not affect your trading.

(You may need to restart the extension though)

Pablo.