Topic: [Closed] MineCo.in - page 2. (Read 41597 times)
Any movement on block 125?? Its still stuck at 120 confirms?
Wuked, do you plan to add merged mining for namecoins to your pool?
Is the current block time normal for this pool? It seems like a like a long time at 1 days 19:19:51.
It's normal, in fact that round was done an hour after your post, and then another block was found in ten hours.
The pool hashrate is lower than it was a few weeks ago, currently 84 Ghash/s. You get payouts less often, but they are worth more.
Let's calculate the expected round time:
Pool hashes per second: 84,000,000,000
Pool hashes per hour: 302,400,000,000,000
Bitcoin average hashes per block solve: 7,635,483,000,000,000 (at current difficulty)
= Average pool round: 25.25 hours
So blocks solves (and their payouts) average once a day at the current total hashrate. With variance, this means you might get some rounds 1/3 this length, and some 3x this length.
Here's a link to the statistics page mentioned above.
You can compare the number of shares per round to the current difficulty, 1777774. It's been a while since a really long round.
(From the hashrate graph, it also looks like some dumb pool hoppers are still jumping on at the start of new rounds, although with the PPLNS payout method they don't earn more for their work than anyone else. You also don't need to quit mining just because a round is longer than expected; if you do, you will miss out on maximum earnings when a block is found.)
Is the current block time normal for this pool? It seems like a like a long time at 1 days 19:19:51.
Look at the "Statistics" page. There you can see the "Duration".Thanks I see some long ones there.
Is the current block time normal for this pool? It seems like a like a long time at 1 days 19:19:51.
Look at the "Statistics" page. There you can see the "Duration".
Is the current block time normal for this pool? It seems like a like a long time at 1 days 19:19:51.
81 23 Aug - 15:09:52 11964670
82 23 Aug - 16:45:13 95787
83 25 Aug - 09:00:48 2682514
84 25 Aug - 14:03:11 345797
85 25 Aug - 17:29:06 249814
86 27 Aug - 06:11:49 2517946
87 27 Aug - 15:21:45 617078
88 28 Aug - 02:51:13 825202
Average Round ( last 8 ): 2412351 shares
Average Round ( last 7 ): 1047734 (difficulty 1805700)
Some good block solving going on - just a few more lucky rounds needed to make up for that killer block!
Woohoo! Finally found a block! High five!!!
Maybe you can be happyface now???
Woohoo! Finally found a block! High five!!!
Great! We got the 3rd block today!!! 
OhThankGodFinally!
And then another 1.5 hours later!
And maybe now people will come back to the pool?
And then another 1.5 hours later!
And maybe now people will come back to the pool?
Woooooo 
Yay. Hopefully your next block will be quicker.
1 hour 35 mins! That's more like it.
Woooooo
Yay. Hopefully your next block will be quicker.
Woooooo
Go us 
Congrats on reaching 10`000`000 shares guys, that's really impressive.
The current round is about to reach 10,000,000 shares. At current difficulty, there is a roughly 1 in 254 chance of having a round that long (0.39274%)
If someone wanted to drink their variance sorrows away and was wondering what the probability of hitting X (lets just say 9 million) shares given current D difficulty, how would that be done? I vaguely remember spreadsheets of poisson, and normal distributions from statistics, but I don't know how use them.
Slush's pool has a graph of what you're looking for: http://mining.bitcoin.cz/stats/graphs/ - scroll to the bottom.
Slush's probability graph is full of math fail. Let me re-twat a previous post of mine (note the probability below was from a lower difficulty):
The CDF is already at 99.999% probability of finding a block per Poisson distribution table since 4 hours ago.
It's now at 8 million shares and 16 hours @ 600ghash/s.
Mathematically very, very improbable, if not practically impossible
http://portal.acm.org/citation.cfm?doid=355993.355997
http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/pmc/section3/pmc331.htm
(The probability of not solving a block within 960 minutes at current difficulty with 600ghash/s is <0.0000000000000001% and decreases exponentially after each passing minute)
It's now at 8 million shares and 16 hours @ 600ghash/s.
Mathematically very, very improbable, if not practically impossible
http://portal.acm.org/citation.cfm?doid=355993.355997
http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/pmc/section3/pmc331.htm
(The probability of not solving a block within 960 minutes at current difficulty with 600ghash/s is <0.0000000000000001% and decreases exponentially after each passing minute)
I get a different answer. The chance of solving a block depends on difficulty.
Here is the probability of an individual hash solving a block: http://blockexplorer.com/q/probability
The current probability of solving a block with an individual hash is: 0.0000000000000001489590023459044440534704278888966655358
The current probability of not solving a block with one hash is therefore :
( 1 - 0.00000000000000014895900234590444 ) = 0.99999999999999985104099765409556
Let's call that chance of not solving with an individual hash (a number very close to 1, or 100%) "Z".
The probability of not solving a block with two hashes is Z * Z, better written as Z^2. Still nearly 100%. We need more hashes.
The pool averaged about 600Ghash per second. That is 600,000,000,000 hashes per second x 60 seconds per minute x 60 minutes per hour x 16 hours in the "imaginary" round. Probably around 34,560,000,000,000,000 hashes. That's another preposterous number, so I'll call that "hashTotal"
A pool trys hashTotal hashes in 16 hours, so the chance of not finding a block in that time is Z ^ hashTotal.
.99999... ^ 3.456E+16 = .02156 = 2.16% chance of not solving a block in 16 hours. Not improbable. Bruteforcing the nonce statistics don't enter into it, since everybody is doing random work on multiple blocks. Actual calculation done in Excel, not Matlab, so feel free to verify the percentage for me.
Note that also you cannot directly compute using shares or just multiply shares*difficulty, because the chance of finding a share (a difficulty 1 block solve) is also random with binomial distribution, and what is important is the complete number of individual hash attempts in the full difficulty problem.
If someone wanted to drink their variance sorrows away and was wondering what the probability of hitting X (lets just say 9 million) shares given current D difficulty, how would that be done? I vaguely remember spreadsheets of poisson, and normal distributions from statistics, but I don't know how use them.
Slush's pool has a graph of what you're looking for: http://mining.bitcoin.cz/stats/graphs/ - scroll to the bottom.
I think bad luck follows me around. Switched my miners over from guild 3 days ago, they've been green on luck most of the last 3 days. Not so much here. If someone wanted to drink their variance sorrows away and was wondering what the probability of hitting X (lets just say 9 million) shares given current D difficulty, how would that be done? I vaguely remember spreadsheets of poisson, and normal distributions from statistics, but I don't know how use them.
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