Topic: DiceBitco.in - New Thread to Discuss - page 17. (Read 20658 times)

Now they have locked the main theard too
Fucking scam I say.

Off topic : Dooglus can you read my PM I sent you earlier? Thanks.

On topic:  So is he still re-funding investors when they withdraw? Or has he run off with the bankroll?

I don't know, but apparently the employee didn't have access to the live server.

Edit:


It doesn't matter, because we know he didn't need it. He didn't lose thousands and win it back...

DB rolled back the code, but did DB check all the PCs and servers for backdoors that would allow remote access and rigging of the game again?

Just out of interest I wrote a program that simulated tens of thousands of dice rolls, over thousands of sessions.  Assuming a 100btc bankroll and a target bankroll of 600 (mateo took DB from about +250 to -300, so not unreasonable), over 10,000 sessions with a 1% edge the player didn't reach the target once against the house.  Sometimes it took just 2500 rolls, sometimes 45,000 or more, but the bust was inevitable.  Top bankroll was 378 across all sessions.  

Of course, we don't know how big mateo's bankroll was, but I would suggest it wasn't in the thousands.

Rolling back code to remove the commit written by the new employee was rational.

Thinking that rolling back his commit would leave a secure codebase was reasonable too, if that was his only commit.

Losing to a lucky whale isn't something he could control (unless he was the whale, or gave him the seed, of course). When a whale is playing, you don't want to stop him because he's probably going to end up losing back his gains.

The refund policy, the yelling, and removing chat were all questionable, as was not freezing betting for longer.

They had 200 BTC of their own investment initially. Site went from +280 to -330 during mateo's lucky run, so that's 600.

I don't know exact amounts of refunds but considering that the site gained maybe 250-300 BTC during the period of time when the "rogue" code was in production, the refunds wouldn't have exceeded that. I think it was A LOT less than that since he was selectively refunding only certain deposits.

Keep in mind that ~half of that 90k BTC was wagered by mateo, and a large part of the remaining bets were tainted to an unknown extent by the "rogue employee", which makes any kind of revenue projection questionable at best.

From a financial standpoint yes, it worked out in their favor if you believe they were behind the "lucky whale". At this point saying that this is the case is pure speculation. Until the database can be audited (if this would happen, IDK) we really cannot say this as a fact. From a reputation standpoint it did not work in their favor.

I am curious to know how much of their own money they had invested in the site/bankroll, the estimated gains by mateo et el, and the estimated amount of money they refunded investors and victims of the nonce issue. I think this would give a better picture as to what they were able to potentially have scammed and what the ROI on their scam was. It would also paint a picture as to what their potential profit could have been if they had continued running as a legit site.

Their site is showing ~91k BTC bet (over it's lifetime?), this would have an EV of ~910 BTC profit for the bankroll, and an EV of ~91 BTC for their 10% commission on bankroll profits. Assuming they have been in operation for 6 weeks this works out to ~15 BTC per week, or ~780 BTC per year, or ~$390,000 per year before expenses.

Or it worked very much in their favor. I was ready to give manl the benefit of the doubt as he seemed to be a reasonable bloke before this whole fiasco. But the way he mishandled this situation is beyond belief, even if you assume that everything he said was true. He's sitting on a $3m pile of OPM and what's the first thing he does after the site is compromised? Hastily rolls back the code and insists everything is great. Starts issuing half-assed refunds. Yells at anyone doubting his decisions. Closes chat and then the official thread. Proceeds to lose 80-90% of last investors' coins to a freaky lucky whale. Did I miss anything? Did he do anything that was even remotely rational?

I'm not even sure what he could possibly do or say to try to extract himself from this shit, if he'll be at all interested in that when he cools down. Maybe start with publishing mateo's lucky seeds and rolls.

They received the advise to not allow bets to continue. They made the business decision to not stop bets as they were likely trying to avoid any downtime. I think they were hoping that allowing betting to continue and not stopping withdrawals would allow them to maintain their credibility. It was a calculated risk that did not work in their favor.

thank you for this

Reading comprehension never was your strong point was it.

Mistake? They were asked repeatedly to do just that, even before the mass exodus of investors. The fact that they didn't and blissfully claimed that the issue has been resolved is as much of a smoking gun as about a dozen other facts in this story.

Let X_i be the random variable modeling the profit of each bet.

Assumptions:
1) profits went from 260 to -330, that is manlteo's profit = (+/-) 600btc
2) N=60k bets of 1btc each @ 2x payout
3) math bullshit (iid random variables), q=0.495, P[X=+1] = q, P[X=-1] = 1-q.

Let S= X_1+X_2+ ... + X_60000. We should expect E(S)= 60000 x ( 1x0.495 + (-1)x0.505 ) = -600 (a loss).

We want to know P[S >= 600]. Central limit theorem states that  [S - E(S)] / stdev(X)*\sqrt(N) =: Z is normally can be approximated by a normal distribution N(0,1).

var(X) = E(X^2) - E(X)^2 = q+1-q - (2q-1)^2 = 4q(1-q) = 0.9999, so stdev ~ 1

So
P[S >= 600] ~= P[Z >= [600 -(-600)] / (1*\sqrt(N)) ] = P[Z>= 1200/244] = 1-P[Z<=4.89922] = 4.8x10^-7.

That probability is almost zero. I'd say you are few orders of magnitude more likely to die, along with 1 million people at the same time, before you finish reading this, than to have maeonlgerry's luck.

Edit1...
Edit2...
Woot my mistakes! See my post here.

I don't see the point any more, even if all of them were rigged you won't get your money now

So right now, there is about 610 BTC that was stolen via manl's alt account matteo (profit went from +280 to -330 in less than 24 hours!!). That's pretty serious. The majority of investors who left coins on the site haven't checked the site in 24 hours and they will be in for a shock. I really feel bad for them. These are the true victims -- they were a huge portion of the small bankroll when "matteo" starting betting and are totally (90% or so) wiped out.

My theory: Manl wanted to slowly siphon bitcoin but did in an unbelievable brazen and stupid way (Maybe he got impatient? I can't explain why he would do it in such an obvious way -- stupidity I guess. He was probably losing patience on how little the site was making and how much profit he could skim each day.). When he was caught his whole plan unravelled and instead of running off with the whole bankroll (which would put a MASSIVE target on his back) he allowed the majority of investors to get their coins out. Seems like he is going to make out with 600-1000 BTC from the scam which is unbelievable. He didn't think he could get away with stealing 7000 btc but has the audacity to think he can steal 600-1000 BTC.

The sad part is people actually believe some parts of his story. Come on people... By the way, for fun can someone explain the math of how monstrously improbable Matteo's run of "luck" (fraud) was?

Since I never got a response from DB and the thread was locked. Are they really not going to pay out winning bets? Have they considered what this will do to gambler confidence in their future reincarnation of DB?

Most people wouldn't promote the site if they knew it was fraudulent. They trusted it was legit, just like the gamblers/investors. And why the fuck do you assume that sig campaign participant cannot also be gambler/investor?

About that get-paid-for-spamming (aka signature-) campaign, I don't get it. How you dare considering yourself eligible for any buttcoin, how can you even show your face here when
1) some gamblers were cheated and lost big butts (yes, not receiving butts you won is a loss)
2) all (remaining) investors were cheated and lost big butts (edit) when mateonlgry came
What did you signature-campaign leeches risk huh ? Nothing. And no, e-reputation doesn't exist. Oh yeah, maybe you're number #237817 on the kill-list of some of the real victims here.