The public here mainly consists of bettors who tend to bet on the favorites, whether it’s point spread or moneyline. Most suggestions we see online emphasize that to be considered a smart bettor, you should bet against the public. But what if we don’t bet against ourselves? Can we still find success in sports betting?
When we talk about success, it should be viewed as a long-term process. Some of us may not see ourselves betting long-term, which makes it hard for them to relate to this concept. If someone is just betting for fun, they likely won’t be well-versed in the terminology of sports betting, as their interest is quite limited. In contrast, those who genuinely want to win will study the sports betting market and seek ways to succeed, even if the chances are slim.
Sports betting is always a zero-sum game. If you win, someone else loses (and vice versa - if someone else wins, you lose).
There is a saying (hard cynical humor) - "If you're gambling and can't figure out who's the fool, then you're the fool." This is another formulation of a zero-sum game.
Therefore, I agree with the statement that when betting on sports, you need to play against the crowd (the public). This is especially true for fixed sports competitions, since in this case the event with the lowest probability occurs.
At the same time, the crowd (the public) bets on the event with the highest probability (in the opinion of the crowd (the public), who is not aware that the match is fixed and everything is predetermined in advance).