Topic: Energy Crisis 2.0 in the New World Order era - page 11. (Read 2734 times)

If you read from a book, you must be completely neutral and without taking sides and according to the facts. It is very easy to manipulate information through books and news.

We know here clearly that Palestine has 2 camps, namely the Hamas group (dominant in the Gaza Strip) and the Fatah group. These 2 groups also have the same goal of defending Palestine from Israeli colonialism. But their ways are different. Fatah uses the negotiation route with the aim of reducing casualties due to armed conflict, and Hamas uses the weapon/war route. In fact, these 2 camps are at odds with each other and often conflict.


Image by: https://www.polgeonow.com/2021/05/israel-palestine-control-map-west-bank-areas-gaza.html?m=1

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/features/2017/10/12/hamas-and-fatah-how-are-the-two-groups-different
However, recently Hamas's influence has begun to spread to areas dominated by the Fatah group. This is due to Israel's increasingly outrageous actions in attacking and confiscating Palestinian property and places of worship.

In essence, I do not support actions like this which cause citizens (especially women and children) to become victims of the Palestinians and Israelis.

If it leads to the Israeli and Palestinian conflict there is a long history behind it regarding religious beliefs. I don't want to discuss it because it will be different from one version to another, especially as it concerns several beliefs. What I understand here is that every religion condemns murder, suspicion, plunder and other bad acts. I'm sure this is just the work of greedy individuals who are willing to sacrifice many innocent victims to fulfill their desires.

Yes, the next stage is still unexpected. It is clear that the Palestinians will not surrender easily, and they have a strong card this time, which is hundreds of prisoners, which could constitute somewhat of a deterrent for Israel.

Returning to the costs, we now see how simple tools such as “gliders” were able to disrupt the operation of the Israeli Iron Dome and the separation wall, which cost billions of dollars, in addition to what you mentioned about the cheap equipment that destroys the expensive Merkava tanks. This may constitute the beginning of a shift in the pattern of thinking about The feasibility of spending these billions on military equipment that has become useless in exchange for primitive equipment.

The continuation of battles in this sensitive region of the world will have negative consequences on energy prices and could have an impact on the global economy in general, especially with the United States sending its warships to the Mediterranean and the possibility of Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah indirectly intervening in the war.

It is tough when you summarize a very complicated situation inside 2 lines.
You see it is not that USA wants to directly eliminate Armenia and its people. It is the consequence of their plans. Armenian elimination would be collateral damage.

We all know that EU has been trying to fill the gap in its energy deficit. Caspian sea is an excellent source of all kinds of resources but because the surrounding countries are not members of NATO and the two powers from North and South (Russia and Iran) haven't allowed it both legally (categorized as "inland body of water") and by exerting power, there has not been any foreign presence in this sea to this day.

Some of these countries already have small energy exports to EU but NATO wants more, the plan has always been to use their proxy's proxy (Aliyev) to overtake the bottleneck known as south Armenia and create a link with Turkey. Then Azerbaijan would immediately join NATO and NATO forces would pour into the Caspian sea building bases there and bringing their navies.
This will also effectively choke Armenia geographically by cutting all its connection to the outside world while this then tinier country would be surrounded by all its enemies that would continue advancing in the following years taking more of its soil.

The outcome of this plan for NATO would be:
1. NATO presence in Caspian sea that would mean presence near the borders of the two super powers in the region (Russia in the north and Iran in the south)
2. NATO presence in Caspian sea to start building energy extraction infrastructure (for gas and oil) and suck all the resources out towards EU.
3. NATO presence in the area (that used to be Armenia) linking an important international corridor from Iran (East corridor and Chabahar port/corridor in South) that links to China and India and is used for international exports. In the ongoing Corridor Wars, NATO that used to have the upper hand in the seas and "sea corridors" now wants to have the same control in the land based corridors. This is one piece of that puzzle.

It is one of the considerable sources to supply Uranium, oil, gas and coal (exports to EU increased by nearly 600% last year).

I don't see the relevance. Crimes and genocide committed by a bloodthirsty Nazi dictator against Jews does not justify crimes and genocide committed by Zionists against Palestinians. Even if it did, Israel should have been built inside Germany not Palestine.

That was not a fact, that was propaganda that failed as quickly as they created it. Even POTUS who spread this lie 2 days ago went back on it and admitted that it was a lie.
You see the Palestinians who are now rising up are Muslims, in Islamic ideology they follow something such as "rape" is punishable by death. Not to mention that the channel 13 of the Israeli TV has already released at least half a dozen interviews with the militant Jews in the surrounding Gaza settlements that were released by Hamas who are stating how Hamas has treated them with respect and released any women with children.

They did not start it, the Zionists started it the day they invaded their country and occupied their lands (kind of like what happened to Ukraine). They continued it by ethnic cleansing of Palestinians. So when Palestine was presented with two options: to die or to rise up, they chose the later.
This recent battle is only one battle in a 75 year old war. The difference is that this time Palestine is packing a stronger punch compared to previous times. Also this time Palestine pulled a preemptive strike.

Not the whole world though. Only the Western Mainstream Media is with Israel. If you check out majority of Western countries, there has been lots of marches in favor of Palestine to the point that some EU members are now banning them. For example French authorities stated that supporting Palestine is punishable by 7 years in prison!!! The same in England that you are not allowed to even carry the Palestinian flag.

And of course in the East all people stand with Palestine. Right now the borders in Egypt and Jordan are packed with people who are trying to get into the occupied land and help Palestinians who are being slaughtered.
Today there is the largest marches by regular people across West Asia in support of Palestine.

Thanks for the compliment.
I try to provide a different point of view that is not the same as the status quo in the mainstream media which is mostly the Western line.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not yet ended; now that Israel and Hamas have joined, I am thinking about the effect it will have on other countries that are far away from them.

If this country of ours is far from Russia, we can feel the effect it has on fuel. Now,  with the ongoing war with Hamas and Israel, fuel prices will probably increase again for us in a few weeks. It's like Hamas attacked first, so when Israel attacked, they stopped attacking because two leaders of Hamas died immediately. Think that Israel is a small country, but it is also a strong enemy.

Is the USA going to eliminate Armenia? Do you think so? That's the plan? Wasn't the Ottoman Empire during the world war 1 regularly destructing Armenian people?

By the way, how can the US NATOise the Caspian sea by eliminating Armenia?

Patrick Bet-David said: Armenians are successful everywhere except Armenia. I was thinking about that and it's actually true. Armenia as a country is not doing well in every aspect but Armenians are very successful in other countries, especially in the USA: Kim Kardashian and her family, system of a down members, Dan Bilzerian and so on.

Africa is the main source of energy for Europe?

In all seriousness, what's your honest opinion about Hitler? Why was he killing Jews according to your beliefs?

I don't know a lot about Palestine-Israel relationships to be frank, I don't and can't support any of them because I lack some knowledge about their histories, I only know about Jews but when I read some great books like Walter Scott's Ivanhoe, I understand that they aren't an innocent nation.
Right now, the fact is, Palestine seriously attacked Israel and are raping and murdering women and children, they started it out of sudden and started with full force, that's why the whole world is on Israel's side. And to be frank, the support of Israel comes from western nations because of religion and at the same time it's beneficial to side with Israel because of their advancement and development and there are many influential jews all around the world.
I don't really know who is the real evil between Palestine and Israel but my heart thinks that Palestine is not the most evil between two.

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What I like about you is that you have a different opinion and you always try to back them up. You are probably a person whom I can trust more about middle east news than any other media. Take that as a compliment from me  

Hezbollah is Shia and Hamas is Sunni. They hate each other, but they hate Jews more
I wonder how long this war will last, but I'm certain there won't be a winner. They will murder thousands of innocent people on both sides and end with a truce.


Because Germans fell victim to the leftist narrative spread by left and the Green Party. Usually when socialist come to power it's game over for the economy and that's what happened in Germany.
They shut down all their nuclear plants without having enough backup in renewables, they are forcing people to use more electric cars that are more expensive to make and need power the German grid cannot supply... IMO Germany destroyed itself and the whole EU should wake up and slow down in this race to be the country with the least emissions.

I should look deeper into that myself but from what I've seen, this transition has been very slow to begin with. Then the COVID recession slowed it down even more because the budget needed to go somewhere else (trying to kick start the economy again) then came the NATO-Russia war and again the budget needed to go somewhere else (military spending).
Now another theatre of war has opened that Europe has to fund, this time the invaders so that they can use Europe's money to murder children.

I don't think we can consider them fully involved in this war at this point. To me it seems like both Lebanese and Syrian resistance branches are trying to divide the attention of the Israeli terrorists to two additional battlefields instead of one (like previous times).

So if they force the terrorists to keep 50k IDF soldiers in the Northern border and 50k in Eastern border + Iron Dome batteries in each theatre, and do it by only "poking" the enemy that means 100k less troops, air defense, tanks, armored vehicle, air force, etc. for the Southern border.
Consequently the South resistance branch can advance and reach the West Bank easier in which case a direct land based route to outside world can be created that can then be used to get humanitarian aid such as food, water, medical supplies, gas (for electricity), etc. to Gaza that currently has none.

Next stage is still unpredictable. But we'll definitely know that we're in the next phase. For example we'll see the 150k missiles in action, as opposed to a couple of shells and small missile attacks in the past couple of days coming from north and east side of the occupied Palestine.

Hezbollah said to have joined already and reports earlier was that Syria was already firing Israel. Seems like all hell breaks lose. Eventually, there will be more joining and the energy market is going to skyrocket soon.

Once richest country in EU, Germany is already collapsing without stable energy source. France might also crumble as less Uranium will be exported to them, it will not be enough to power the whole country. Crazy crazy times.

Maybe it's not just oil and coal (energy) that they will try to monopolize, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) if we look in detail, some of its members have large superior resources that are capable of supporting themselves and even the country. others in particular were able to export the results of their resources to Europe. We can check the data here.
Food Outlook – Biannual report on global food markets - Fao.org https://www.fao.org/3/cc3020en/cc3020en.pdf

Let's look at food production data, especially China, India and Brazil always occupy the top positions in each sector. Maybe what we feel now is energy, but the food sector is also too important for us to miss.

Current world conditions are still heating up, tensions in Ukraine vs Russia continue to flare. Plus Palestine vs Israel. Here we know that Israel is one with America. If the Islamic countries are fed up and unite to help Palestine, we know the direction while BRICS is still able to recruit potential members who have large resources. This is just the beginning of the trade war.

Israel and its Western allies are still surprised how Palestine was able to carry out such coordinated attacks that have caused colossal losses. Now they are pointing accusing fingers at Russia and Iran without any concrete evidence to back these claims. Any military response from Israel, against Iran will increase the price of oil. If the West choose to believe this propaganda without verification Iran might decide to make the Strait of Hormuz difficult for tankers to pass through.

Saudi Arabia which was pushing for the normalisation of its relationship with Israel has now changed its position. Now Saudi Arabia firm supporter of Palestine, which means any direct military intervention by the US will lead to some consequences since it is Saudi and Russia that controls OPEC+. This war might not currently have an effect on oil production because both warring nations are not oil producers, but if not handled with care, the world might suffer more than it did during the early stage of the Russia-Ukraine war.

These are indeed valuable tips and anybody playing with stocks can place their bets. If the case about energy that you make turns out to be correct, then stocks of the conventional energy companies (coal, nuclear) would probably go up. Not sure how fast Europe can fire up its nuclear plants after the phase-outs that have happened, but would they really have any other option in case the crisis really intensifies?

I haven't taken a look at the enrgy situation very closely for a long time. I think it is time for research. How exactly has the green transition affected the energy security as well as resilience will be an interesting study. If the situation between Israel and Palestine explodes into a regional conflict, things are pretty much gonna go to shit for everyone really fast.

To further clarify this point, it must be recalled that one of the most important projects that was to be started to transport gas to Europe via Hassi R’Mal (Algeria) was disrupted, the most important details of which can be summarized in these ideas:
- There are three pipelines extending from Algeria (Hassi R'Mal) to Europe (two to Spain and one to Italy). The new line is to strengthen this supply network, knowing that this network does not only provide gas to Europe, as Tunisia and Morocco also benefit from it, in addition to Algeria itself.
- The project of this line began in the 1970s and remained the focus of studies for years before its effectiveness was confirmed, in addition to confirming the technical possibility of its completion, which only happened in the 2000s.
- Considering that Russia is working to disrupt the project, it must be taken into account that one of the most important factors that was disrupting the project is the security issue due to the activity of terrorist groups on the borders between the participating countries. The Ain Amenas incident in Algeria is an example.
- Algeria is an ally of Russia and has ambitions to join BRICS. Russia can convince Russia to disrupt the project without the need to inflame the situation in the rest of the agreement countries (Niger and Nigeria).

I totally forgot about coal.

This is one of the smaller reasons I start discussions like this. You see it helps a lot to know what is going on in the world in a much bigger picture. It specifically helps make better financial decisions too. For example someone who trades stocks benefits from knowing these things. Imagine if you were bagholding energy company stocks (like the German energy giant Uniper that got dumped 95%). On the other hand there were some other stocks that skyrocketed in the same period (usually defense related stock).

Even in the current ongoing conflict in Palestine there are a lot of economic tips. For example take the highly lauded Merkava tanks that are advertised as super strong and super invulnerable, with each unit is worth $3.5 million. Palestinians are blowing them up easily, some with $50 drones and have captured at least 4 so far
The value of the company manufacturing them is now shit... because they're proven to be useless.

Number 2 kinda support the speculation that it was the Ukranians who actually blew up the Nord Stream pipelines.

The obvious reason is countries that don't have those resources would like to have their share of the pie without necessarily paying too much. If they cannot do that then they try to create as much chaos within that resource rich country in order to suppress the growth of a rival.

Businesses have closed and unemployment has skyrocketed due to Europe's energy issues. But isn't that intriguing? Some places are thriving, others are struggling

It's scary how Russia handles fuel. They govern the universe like a toy. Did you say Ukraine? Giving up sensitive information at such a crucial time? It's odd

The oil import ban and Northern Iraqi unrest are another blow. With its stocks running low, the US is likewise struggling. Internal unrest and a lack of LNG terminals complicate matters in Africa

The evolving situation in Palestine could be the breaking point. If it intervenes, the US might change energy prices unlike ever before. It makes you wonder: Why do resource-rich areas typically have conflict?

Coincidentally, many wars have broken out in the region and involve countries that are rich in oil as the main source of energy at this time. If we observe the recent tensions, the price of oil, a major energy source, will currently increase and could trigger an energy crisis. Plus, the tension between Russia and Ukraine will not only reduce the supply of oil exports but also the coal they have.

If Brics continues to strengthen its power, I can't imagine what kind of monopoly will happen. Most of the BRICS members have large energy resources and provide a lot of support to mainland Europe. The Middle East region has also started to heat up recently. The slightest tension between these countries will add to energy difficulties. Meanwhile, renewable energies have not yet developed and contributed optimally.
fuck about data and renewable energy and even electricity, in reality there is a lot of tension and war between countries/groups to control crude oil and coal.

Energy Crisis 1.0 last year is behind us but at the cost of deindustrialization of EU, mass lay offs (increased unemployment rate), decreasing quality of life (increased employment rate as people try to get additional jobs to fill their bellies), losing in competing international markets as other countries replaced European products, inflation + recession, collapse of banks, and a lot more while other economies grew specially in the Eastern Bloc.

Energy prices are still higher than what's needed to stop the inflation+recession and the scarcity has not been fully resolved in Europe to go back to the pre-2022 times where industries could start up again and start trying to compete. This means deindustrialization will continue.

As we get close to colder seasons we have had some significant developments that has worsened the energy situation and some that has the potential to turn things critical. I will iterate them here, feel free to add any that I missed:

1. Russia has been disrupting different markets in the past year (food/grain, fertilizer, gas and oil). Recently as a big diesel fuel exporter, Russia started disrupting that market and playing with international supply and price. They cut the export completely then lifted the ban slightly.
Diesel fuel is important in heavy machinery and is directly affecting the supply chain ergo the price of everything like price of food.

2. Ukraine's energy ministry publicly revealed something top classified regarding the gas storage in Ukraine overflowing and the capability to export to EU; consequently Russia has been using this classified information to target Ukraine's energy sector heavily ever since. Although I don't have reliable information about the degree of damage, this has definitely harmed a good source of energy for Europe thanks to idiots in Ukraine government who don't know what "classified" means at times of war.

3. Gas and oil that Europe bought from the separatist/terrorists in Northern Iraq (the so called autonomous Kurdistan) with the help of Turkey is now completely halted as these groups were disarmed and dismantled as Iraqi military took back control of their soil and its resources.

4. The plan to eliminate the country called Armenia and then NATOise the Caspian sea (a massive source of gas) for Europe to steal its resources is a big failure for now so that hope is gone for at least this year. After case #7 I don't think it will start ever again.

5. US strategic oil reserves is at its lowest so they can no longer release the reserves freely like before to desperately try to bring the price down. We can already see a small rise over the past couple of weeks that has the potential of growing faster now. That market manipulation by increasing supply can no longer work as effectively as before. So there is a good chance that oil starts rising in winter and next year (so does gold and of course bitcoin).

6. Africa remains the main source of energy for Europe but due to the coups and how some nations have started kicking out the colonizers it is not the most reliable source. Additionally there aren't enough LNG terminals to be able to meet the supply needs of EU.

7. Last but not least is Palestine. The recent rise up by the Palestinians against genocide and occupation of their country by a terrorist organization known as Israel changed the geopolitics of West Asia (falsely referred to as Middle East). Although this is not YET significantly affecting the energy markets but considering that United States is a supporter of this apartheid regime and there is a very small chance that US military could get involved, we can expect a massive energy price surge if US makes that mistake.
That's because the international community has warned United States that in the case of a direct military intervention, all US positions become legitimate targets. Majority of these positions are located in key oil rich regions such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, etc. any small tension in any of these regions would shoot the oil and gas prices up let alone an all out war that would not only increase energy prices to new record high but also would cut the global supply by at least 60%.