Topic: Energy Crisis 2.0 in the New World Order era - page 11. (Read 2608 times)

Hezbollah said to have joined already and reports earlier was that Syria was already firing Israel. Seems like all hell breaks lose. Eventually, there will be more joining and the energy market is going to skyrocket soon.

Once richest country in EU, Germany is already collapsing without stable energy source. France might also crumble as less Uranium will be exported to them, it will not be enough to power the whole country. Crazy crazy times.

Maybe it's not just oil and coal (energy) that they will try to monopolize, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) if we look in detail, some of its members have large superior resources that are capable of supporting themselves and even the country. others in particular were able to export the results of their resources to Europe. We can check the data here.
Food Outlook – Biannual report on global food markets - Fao.org https://www.fao.org/3/cc3020en/cc3020en.pdf

Let's look at food production data, especially China, India and Brazil always occupy the top positions in each sector. Maybe what we feel now is energy, but the food sector is also too important for us to miss.

Current world conditions are still heating up, tensions in Ukraine vs Russia continue to flare. Plus Palestine vs Israel. Here we know that Israel is one with America. If the Islamic countries are fed up and unite to help Palestine, we know the direction while BRICS is still able to recruit potential members who have large resources. This is just the beginning of the trade war.

Israel and its Western allies are still surprised how Palestine was able to carry out such coordinated attacks that have caused colossal losses. Now they are pointing accusing fingers at Russia and Iran without any concrete evidence to back these claims. Any military response from Israel, against Iran will increase the price of oil. If the West choose to believe this propaganda without verification Iran might decide to make the Strait of Hormuz difficult for tankers to pass through.

Saudi Arabia which was pushing for the normalisation of its relationship with Israel has now changed its position. Now Saudi Arabia firm supporter of Palestine, which means any direct military intervention by the US will lead to some consequences since it is Saudi and Russia that controls OPEC+. This war might not currently have an effect on oil production because both warring nations are not oil producers, but if not handled with care, the world might suffer more than it did during the early stage of the Russia-Ukraine war.

These are indeed valuable tips and anybody playing with stocks can place their bets. If the case about energy that you make turns out to be correct, then stocks of the conventional energy companies (coal, nuclear) would probably go up. Not sure how fast Europe can fire up its nuclear plants after the phase-outs that have happened, but would they really have any other option in case the crisis really intensifies?

I haven't taken a look at the enrgy situation very closely for a long time. I think it is time for research. How exactly has the green transition affected the energy security as well as resilience will be an interesting study. If the situation between Israel and Palestine explodes into a regional conflict, things are pretty much gonna go to shit for everyone really fast.

To further clarify this point, it must be recalled that one of the most important projects that was to be started to transport gas to Europe via Hassi R’Mal (Algeria) was disrupted, the most important details of which can be summarized in these ideas:
- There are three pipelines extending from Algeria (Hassi R'Mal) to Europe (two to Spain and one to Italy). The new line is to strengthen this supply network, knowing that this network does not only provide gas to Europe, as Tunisia and Morocco also benefit from it, in addition to Algeria itself.
- The project of this line began in the 1970s and remained the focus of studies for years before its effectiveness was confirmed, in addition to confirming the technical possibility of its completion, which only happened in the 2000s.
- Considering that Russia is working to disrupt the project, it must be taken into account that one of the most important factors that was disrupting the project is the security issue due to the activity of terrorist groups on the borders between the participating countries. The Ain Amenas incident in Algeria is an example.
- Algeria is an ally of Russia and has ambitions to join BRICS. Russia can convince Russia to disrupt the project without the need to inflame the situation in the rest of the agreement countries (Niger and Nigeria).

I totally forgot about coal.

This is one of the smaller reasons I start discussions like this. You see it helps a lot to know what is going on in the world in a much bigger picture. It specifically helps make better financial decisions too. For example someone who trades stocks benefits from knowing these things. Imagine if you were bagholding energy company stocks (like the German energy giant Uniper that got dumped 95%). On the other hand there were some other stocks that skyrocketed in the same period (usually defense related stock).

Even in the current ongoing conflict in Palestine there are a lot of economic tips. For example take the highly lauded Merkava tanks that are advertised as super strong and super invulnerable, with each unit is worth $3.5 million. Palestinians are blowing them up easily, some with $50 drones and have captured at least 4 so far
The value of the company manufacturing them is now shit... because they're proven to be useless.

Number 2 kinda support the speculation that it was the Ukranians who actually blew up the Nord Stream pipelines.

The obvious reason is countries that don't have those resources would like to have their share of the pie without necessarily paying too much. If they cannot do that then they try to create as much chaos within that resource rich country in order to suppress the growth of a rival.

Businesses have closed and unemployment has skyrocketed due to Europe's energy issues. But isn't that intriguing? Some places are thriving, others are struggling

It's scary how Russia handles fuel. They govern the universe like a toy. Did you say Ukraine? Giving up sensitive information at such a crucial time? It's odd

The oil import ban and Northern Iraqi unrest are another blow. With its stocks running low, the US is likewise struggling. Internal unrest and a lack of LNG terminals complicate matters in Africa

The evolving situation in Palestine could be the breaking point. If it intervenes, the US might change energy prices unlike ever before. It makes you wonder: Why do resource-rich areas typically have conflict?

Coincidentally, many wars have broken out in the region and involve countries that are rich in oil as the main source of energy at this time. If we observe the recent tensions, the price of oil, a major energy source, will currently increase and could trigger an energy crisis. Plus, the tension between Russia and Ukraine will not only reduce the supply of oil exports but also the coal they have.

If Brics continues to strengthen its power, I can't imagine what kind of monopoly will happen. Most of the BRICS members have large energy resources and provide a lot of support to mainland Europe. The Middle East region has also started to heat up recently. The slightest tension between these countries will add to energy difficulties. Meanwhile, renewable energies have not yet developed and contributed optimally.
fuck about data and renewable energy and even electricity, in reality there is a lot of tension and war between countries/groups to control crude oil and coal.

Energy Crisis 1.0 last year is behind us but at the cost of deindustrialization of EU, mass lay offs (increased unemployment rate), decreasing quality of life (increased employment rate as people try to get additional jobs to fill their bellies), losing in competing international markets as other countries replaced European products, inflation + recession, collapse of banks, and a lot more while other economies grew specially in the Eastern Bloc.

Energy prices are still higher than what's needed to stop the inflation+recession and the scarcity has not been fully resolved in Europe to go back to the pre-2022 times where industries could start up again and start trying to compete. This means deindustrialization will continue.

As we get close to colder seasons we have had some significant developments that has worsened the energy situation and some that has the potential to turn things critical. I will iterate them here, feel free to add any that I missed:

1. Russia has been disrupting different markets in the past year (food/grain, fertilizer, gas and oil). Recently as a big diesel fuel exporter, Russia started disrupting that market and playing with international supply and price. They cut the export completely then lifted the ban slightly.
Diesel fuel is important in heavy machinery and is directly affecting the supply chain ergo the price of everything like price of food.

2. Ukraine's energy ministry publicly revealed something top classified regarding the gas storage in Ukraine overflowing and the capability to export to EU; consequently Russia has been using this classified information to target Ukraine's energy sector heavily ever since. Although I don't have reliable information about the degree of damage, this has definitely harmed a good source of energy for Europe thanks to idiots in Ukraine government who don't know what "classified" means at times of war.

3. Gas and oil that Europe bought from the separatist/terrorists in Northern Iraq (the so called autonomous Kurdistan) with the help of Turkey is now completely halted as these groups were disarmed and dismantled as Iraqi military took back control of their soil and its resources.

4. The plan to eliminate the country called Armenia and then NATOise the Caspian sea (a massive source of gas) for Europe to steal its resources is a big failure for now so that hope is gone for at least this year. After case #7 I don't think it will start ever again.

5. US strategic oil reserves is at its lowest so they can no longer release the reserves freely like before to desperately try to bring the price down. We can already see a small rise over the past couple of weeks that has the potential of growing faster now. That market manipulation by increasing supply can no longer work as effectively as before. So there is a good chance that oil starts rising in winter and next year (so does gold and of course bitcoin).

6. Africa remains the main source of energy for Europe but due to the coups and how some nations have started kicking out the colonizers it is not the most reliable source. Additionally there aren't enough LNG terminals to be able to meet the supply needs of EU.

7. Last but not least is Palestine. The recent rise up by the Palestinians against genocide and occupation of their country by a terrorist organization known as Israel changed the geopolitics of West Asia (falsely referred to as Middle East). Although this is not YET significantly affecting the energy markets but considering that United States is a supporter of this apartheid regime and there is a very small chance that US military could get involved, we can expect a massive energy price surge if US makes that mistake.
That's because the international community has warned United States that in the case of a direct military intervention, all US positions become legitimate targets. Majority of these positions are located in key oil rich regions such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, etc. any small tension in any of these regions would shoot the oil and gas prices up let alone an all out war that would not only increase energy prices to new record high but also would cut the global supply by at least 60%.