Topic: Energy Crisis 2.0 in the New World Order era - page 3. (Read 2608 times)

Maybe it's not just gold, maybe the stock of basic food ingredients, China has also thought about and prepared from now on, even beforehand, where potential riots in the future will break out immediately, be it war or other major events if we observe at this time.

Let me stop you there, because to be the leading Super Power in the New World Order, they can't act like a weasel forever. That "act", if maintained, will be the defeat of Russia and China's other allies. How then will the "New World Order" be acheived?

Plus it's laughable to have the presumption that China doesn't want to be the leader.


OK, but that doesn't change the FACT that China and Russia have been building a Gold hoard. Whether it's for their preparation for the fight for their "New World Order", probably debatable. But it's probably also good to check the Gold/commodities purchases of the other countries in the "BRICS Commonwealth".

A couple of things:
Chinese strategy has always been to act like a weasel. They did it during the Cold War between US and USSR and benefited greatly and have been following that strategy ever since, even today that US has officially declared war on China.
So yes, China doesn't want to fight US but US does. Look at what US considers #1 threat.

As for trade routes, I disagree with @carbon. All of them are threatened and disrupted by armed conflicts and cold wars.
In the sea, US is threatening China by controlling all the waterways specially in chokepoints namely Malacca. In fact one of the reasons why US has suddenly became so interested in Taiwan is to destabilize Chinese routes in the seas.
On the ground is the same too. The Belt and Road initiative goes through a bunch of countries. Check their list and see how every single one of them has been destabilized over the past couple of years (eg. Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, ...). Even tiny ones that could fall into a teeny tiny part of that route like Armenia!

As for the New World Order, things will go back to "normal" like before. Meaning a world where there is NOT a single power but multiple powers in the world. This is why we see multiple "blocs" usually economic blocs forming and getting stronger, one of which is BRICS.
In other words China will not replace US but will only be one of the powers (in East Asia). Russia will be another specially after defeating NATO in Ukraine (in North Asia and possibly eastern Europe). Iran is the other in West Asia. And finally if US doesn't fall apart like USSR, it will be the power in the West (includes Europe).

As for India, it has a lot of work to reach a "hegemony" status and is far from it. For now they are doing what China did decades ago, attracting foreign investors and strengthening economy. They don't yet have a strong and unifying ideology either. For example Modi is trying to establish his right wing Hinduism as the nationwide unifying ideology but it is radical and internally it is starting to cause chaos that in long term could tear India apart if they continue like this and fail.

"NewWorldOrder" is not a plan of  "china #1 superpower". . nor "china own all the gold forever"
its actually more of a BRICS commonwealth.. china is trying to get away from single superpower infighting

energy crisis in the future will be trying to interconnect countries world wide where by the sunny side of planet can sell excess solar energy to dark side of planet like they are trying to turn northern africa into solar far, but then cable it into europe/middle east to sell the excess as the planet rotates

fossil reserves are going to diminish within half a century anyway, no matter if you want to blame NWO or climate or whatever reason for the transition away from fossil, thus not a crisis. but more of a predicament

I believe they wouldn't have a choice, unless they don't want to be leading the New World Order. But who will lead it? Russia, India? That wouldn't also be in China's plans, no?



Please confirm that that's not actually true.

If China wants to lead the "New World Order", it needs to have a very large Gold Reserve. Because if they don't, Russia will do it.

so you admit china had the money 2020-2023 to buy gold.. ok thanks for debunking yourself on another side topic.
they bought in 2021-22 (average $1.6k) and now have hoard at $2k average..
looks healthy investment to me
especially if in 2024 they can hand out gold bricks as 'cashback' back-handers to support the real estate market, where a $75k gold brick only cost them $60k.. plus those deals get people buying real estate to then accumulate another $175k from real estate project sales, where they got property for free due to grabbing up evergrande property


funny thing is.. US faked their #1 ranking on their own listings..
i hope(but never expect from you) to research the whole debt defined as GDP math.
and you will see why US is happy to raise the debt ceiling to retain its foundations as #1.. problem is the US debt in REALITY is hurting the US

when people stop watching things in $USD and start watching world economics in lots of domestic prices.. the USD will start to show its points of rust where it pretended to be gold/stainless steal

the US wants to be a net exporter(previous strangle holds via trade commission terms), to draw value into the US via giving away US goods at luxury prices.. but when other countries start to say no.. US domino's start to tumble

i know you are itching to reply 'but us sales of Iphone in asia are up' no they are not, shipments are up. but asia are not buying. instead they are filtering them on to other US sanctioned countries so that its asia that get the sales from destination countries, the US does not sell directly to.
also the iphone shipments are small in comparison to other phones combined, (and actual sales in asia.. )

I don't think China has a plan to create war with the US. In terms of economics, their supply routes are not interrupted by the wars and they are not going into the path of recession. Although there may have been setbacks like the real estate crash, their economy still is stronger with the help of BRI. They are not going to ruin this momentum with a war with the US.

 The only thing that could get China into war with the US is if they insist on taking over Taiwan by force but they could just wait til something happens since NATO seems to be using brute force in Ukraine or something happens on US soil itself since this election is crucial to what could happen next.

And true, I don't think they will sell Gold. It's their property to ensure the BRICS nations can back up their currency.

Some stats are coming about regarding this situation I mentioned here:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/25/more-than-half-of-uk-retailers-affected-by-houthi-disruption-survey-shows
"The price of shipping a container from Asia to Europe has gone up by as much as 300% for some businesses, while logistical delays have added up to three to four weeks to delivery times, according to the survey by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC)."

Although this is mainly about retailers and exporters but this also affects energy shipments the same way.
Also considering the fact that this war entered the third phase (first phase was verbal warning and blockade, second phase was attacks using weapons to damage vessels, third phase is using weapons to sink them) things could get worse for supporters of genocide.

 

Frankandbeans, listen to me. Nothing in what you have posted changes the FACT that China's Gold reserves has been increasing because of the FACT that they're HOARDING the commodity.

PLUS, you may say that it's off-topic for the thread, BUT a New World Order under the leadership of China would never be possible if they didn't have a very large Gold reserve because the path that they're taking might be that might involve a war with the United States. It's a fall-back plan.

whilst this is a energy topic YOU seem to want to just keep it derailed into a gold topic and a copied insult flurry of nonsense..
so lets handle you one more time..

you might want to look at the form of payment the chinese government planned and are giving out for the funding of the real estate completions, to re-energise the real estate market and not make it decline, you know, in the topic where you pointed out in-complete developed properties from private developers where you tried to use it as evidence of chinese gov's economy being bad
or is research too good for you, you prefer staying ignorant huffing gas fearing someone wanting to enlighten you

funny part is
private developers rushed too soon to develop properties before next decades baby boom demand. so PRIVATE developers failed..
during that time china was ignoring the issue(not their problem it was hong kongs problem at most) and mainland china happily just went on investing in gold

you tried to twist it as a sign of mainland chinese gov failure. and then doubled down saying chinese government going into crisis  having to money print their way out of the real estate issues..

reality is no, gov made their profit on gold and now ready to sell remove their gold exposure. before the post-ATH correction back down to value, so willing to give anyone that buys a unfinished property at market rate(so owners can fund the new developers that will finish them, without crashing the market rate) and china will give the owner a kg of gold as a back hander thanks, to avoid a money print and avoid a real estate market crash by not having to sell plots below market rate

try to do research and stay away from the gas fumes. you will only get burned when you decide the gas fumes are the only thing you want to touch your mind when someone tries to then enlighten your mind

anyway..
if you want to buy gold at ATH. and hoard it until the correction and sell at a loss due to lower fuel cost mining making it cheaper to have a lower average gold price again AKA buy high sell low aka sell at loss.. well you carry on with your own bad economic plan, just dont cry later about it and dont play victim

the energy crisis of crash of 2020 and inflation of 2021 is old news now.. we are getting back to norms..

..i do laugh how you live upside down to reality.. but cry how everyone else is wrong.. but ill leave you to your mistakes as you are the one that will victimise yourself with your mistakes

ill check back on you in a couple years and ask you how your $2k/oz gold purchases are doing.. and then ill laugh once more
(if you cant even get the economic hints from the oil/fuel costs relaxing(this topic) aiding gold mining thus impacting gold price..  and china now wanting to reduce its gold exposure after the 2 year buy up that got it to do its ATH (of the other economics topic).. to aid you in informing you its a bad time to buy gold at ATH before the correction.. thats all on you now)

 

Plus just because there are entities in China, or in whatever country, that are making it easier for ordinary people to gain more access to Gold, phyisical or paper, it doesn't necessarily mean they're selling their Gold hoard. It's laughable to have those foolish assumptions, or foolish posts, merely to gaslight people into questioning the right information and make the gaslighter look smart.

Be careful in the real world, frankandbeans. Gaslighting might be becoming second nature to you.

when your cult of idiots treating core devs as immortal gods cried to your gods to put neg trust.. that then becomes a meaningless reference to then ask why the negative trust.. because you know your cult leader requested it
your just circling the same victim card you created for yourself.
the whole debates i had in that era were about how segwit opens up an exploit that can allow junk.. and funnily enough ordinals proved my point
my evidence is based on code and block data and backed up by researchable data and examples of exploits actually being used. your rebuttals are based on emotion and tears


crying about crying gets you no where and proves nothing. apart from you are wanting to play victim
by you not doing research, thus getting confused then crying that it must be me confusing you becasue i dont say the same songs as your cult. then crying about it.. says more about you than anyone
if you want to learn. do your research. if you dont want to learn. stay ignorant jsut stop crying about the position you put yourself into as a self admitted 'pleb'(the insult YOU gave yourself) that feels like a victim.. you made yourself a victim, and you are unwilling to accept what you done to yourself. or more so not done to improve your circumstance

you keep bringing  up "negative trust, why" and "franknbean"
you cant even come up with anything new, you just cycle the same tripe your mentor spewed at you
saying franky is wrong because he made my sugar daddy cry, is not proof of any debunking of what i say

you cant even articulate a way of saying it differently, independently of your cult leaders script

---

anyway china is offering out gold.. just not back to america.. yes it took in gold and is now offering it out. that how trade works.. the only difference is they are just not offering it back to the west

asia and the middle east are trading gold and shuffling it around
they are even offering it to the real estate buyers as a way to keep the 'paper' price of real estate property at market rate while the buyer gets an instant "cash-back" in the form of upto 1kg bars of gold(yep its the sneaky way to protect real estate market while back-hander deals to offer discount after contract signed at market rate.. kinda smart actually, very economics savvy)

as for energy
now diesel prices are coming back to this past decades norms of the $3 range as oppose to the $6 high
gold miners can mine again cheaper than last couple years. so expect golds ATH range now to correct again DOWN when gold mining season begins in spring

other goods and products will see CPI relax too due to lower fuel costs compare to previous few years

as for electrification of energy. well power plants still need to convert to renewables over next 20 years so expect longer term prices to not return to old prices.

No ser, Gregory Maxwell and Andrew Chow gave YOU negative trust-ratings because YOU have been spreading lies, disinformation, FUD, and have been gaslighting people.



If you know the truth and you are right, then why the negative trust-ratings given to you by two of the most trustworthy people in the forum?



Copy and paste? Frankandbeans, your big blocker Anti-Core-Developers posts are copy-pasted from Mike Hearn's and Roger Ver's propaganda.


Ser, do your own research. They're hoarding, not selling.

That's exactly like with Bitcoin - many were mocking and ridiculing Bitcoin investors for not selling during the top. But who cares what the price is as long as you don't sell you don't lose. The same here: if they don't want to keep their reserves in yuan why would they care about this price decrease and why would they care about the currency they no longer keep their reserves in?

pooya using your own chart.. (where you prefer $40 as norm..) yet it only achieved 40 range in 5-6 months of the last 5 years and (for emphasis) only due to the covid effect of affecting shipments which caused the futures market to sell off at a loss.. where futures contracts needed to be sold at losses to find a place that will accept the oil

pooya using your own chart.. look at the average when it wasnt the 6 month crash.. when it wasnt premium 6 months
its 60-80
over 20 years it was 50-70

current price is 70-80 in february meaning its in the norm range
we are no longer in the 1980's where oil was far less.. the new norm is always higher then 40 years ago(30-50 range for NORM)
we are no longer in the 2000's where oil was far less.. the new norm is always higher then 20 years ago(50-70 range for NORM)

40's is not an expected norm, we ate long passed the 1980's,
sorry time and inflation have moved on from 1980's norms
its like you are suggesting bitcoin should be $6 because $6 was 2012's norm/average...
.. sorry we have moved on from that market cycle. dont expect $6 again. we are a few market cycles away from those kind of price norms.. sorry
..
as for energy shortages..
macro:
well even in the 1980's they knew oil is not renewable. they even calculated potential reserves and put a supply depletion deadline of 2050 when all reserves are gone if staying at the demand growth rate predictions of 1980's forward, if nothing was done about it. this was the true trigger of then needing to shift to renewables by 2050.(climate was just the excuse to get funding via sympathy/ health fear(energy companies dont want to lose their profits. so prefer others pay the costs of changing the product/business model to keep their business in operation for the next generation) and why would people want to fund the early stoppage of using oil.. make it a health and safety concern)

micro:
dont treat the temporary events of supply issues (low demand or high supply or the opposite) or old prices as reasons for lower expectations of now.. what to expect now: nows price is  the norm for the next decade.. you know.. inflation compared to 20-40 years ago's price
dont expect things to go back to prices of the 1980's norms (30-50)

You need to expand your view and also check out the charts.


The peak of the energy crisis was 5-6 months as seen above, part of it was the price surpassing $100 and going as high as $120. The crisis wasn't just about higher price, it was also shortage in the market (there was a lot more demand than there was supply).

The crisis continues at a less severe state at lower prices such as the current $80.

I disagree and still say price has to come down a lot more than even $70 to "relax" the market and become norm. Because what you are forgetting is that one of the reasons why energy price came down in first place was decreasing demand, the demand that went down due to deindustrialization and recession.
To be able to revive those dead sectors and help them come back to the tightly competing market, the price has to go down a lot lower (although a lot more is needed on top of lower energy price).

I'll give you a little bit of my opinion.
Regarding Russia - Russia has not given up on the dollar, moreover, it is critically dependent on it. There was a "show for show" when they "dedollarized" their reserves - buying many billions of dollars for yuan. After 3 months the yuan fell even more, and Russia lost several tens of billions of dollars on this "mega deal".

Regarding gold. It is a specific commodity, especially in a situation when the real reserves in the gold-currency reserves of countries are NOT KNOWN.
Plus - try to model the situation when, for example, China, due to economic problems, decides to sell gold. It will not be 1 kg, and not even 1 ton. imagine what will happen on the world gold market ? Especially since there is a VERY large amount of gold being mined ! It is a rather specific accumulation.

Banks have been net buyers for a long time now, a couple decades the central banks have been buying and some have no selling at all.   Russia for example sells its dollars as a depreciating asset that makes some sense where as it believes the gold reserves its holding will only go up with all other factors serving that value.  China has gone from zero gold to holding an amount they dont want to release exactly, they control the market in effect as the largest buyer luckily they have managed to make themselves the largest producer also as well encouraging the population to hold gold.  India has already valued gold no change there, the government is negative on gold as it distracts from their inflationary fiat policy to tax their population however since India has large population growth and a young demographic even with no bullish trend in effect the country is accumulating gold within its borders.
  Obviously in the west the common worker is taxed heavily and will readily sell gold placing little value on it, I dont dispute that and I think it was Warren Buffet who said something like the cheapest gold to mine is on the highstreet.  Ie. the premium gained via pawn shops allows an easy profit on the arbitrage but even that billionaire doesnt recognize value in gold as an asset to hold so I'd attribute most value accumulating abroad in parts of Asia.
   China and India dont have oil so they will need the gold and the market should stay liquid in future for a hundred years I guess but I think both those markets are healthy for a very long time.  If we compare oil to coal, then the peak there was the steam age about 1900 or so and yet over a hundred years later coal is important still; thats how far oil has to go.

heck you dont even know your own numbers
just a few posts ago you said about the real high of barrel $100-$120.. now you say high of $80 (chose a number and stick with it)
..
you also say for things to relax barrel needs to come down to $40. when that was the temporary crisis LOW of 2016 not the norm average
the norm average is more like $60($50-$70) where oil did actually see $70 this month so is actually getting back to its norm

40 is not norm.. so not a relax point.. 60-70 would be relax point

Everything is beautiful, but the figures about the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia and China, while officially classified by them, do not look very convincing. Most of the other financial and economic indicators in these countries are also classified and cannot be used for indirect assessment. The only thing left is to listen to what the party says, and believe the party !
This is putting it mildly.
At the same time, there is information that, for example, Russia, in connection with sanctions, sells off gold to pay for sub-sanctioned goods and dual-use goods prohibited to be sent to Russia. So their indicator of gold reserves in gold and statements "we have more gold than anyone else and we buy it all the time" are not very convincing ...