Topic: Energy Crisis 2.0 in the New World Order era - page 9. (Read 2273 times)

The Saudi regime is a US backed dictatorship that is forced to support Israel. However, the cost of this support is seen over the past 12 days. Not to mention the people of Arabia support Palestine, despite the dictators. This makes things very complicated.
Not to mention Yemen, the country Saudi regime invaded (9 years) and has a beef with them is ready to find an excuse to break the cease fire and bomb them back to stone ages.
In short the Saudi regime is forced to support Palestine at least with empty words, they don't actually support it.

Two days ago I would have said we are far from the possibility of an embargo, but because of how things change very quickly today we are much closer.

The tensions are rising very fast after the Israeli terrorists murdered over a thousand innocent people taking shelter in a Red Cross sanctioned hospital last night.

Even more so after Biden practically signed the death warrant of every single CENTCOM servicemember by officially saying they stand with the terrorists.
US bases in Iraq are being shelled as we speak (at least two airbases the Al-Harir and Al-Asad). Also Jordanians have stormed both US and Israeli embassies. Same in Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, etc.

The events of next 24-48 hours can determine the size of this war. For example if US decides to respond to these small attacks, the attacks on US bases would increase in number and strength. Like what happened a couple of months ago in Syria.

The war between Israel and Hamas actually complicates matters more. The United States will support Israel and therefore the E.U. will also support Israel, and with oil-rich regions like Saudi Arabia and Iran supporting Palestine.

I believe the result might be, all deals between Saudi Arabia and the United States/Israel to increase oil production will be thrown out the window. There's probably going to be ANOTHER Oil Embargo as a possibilty.

Oil Embargo during 1973, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis

Palestine is not a new negative, a repeat of conflict is recognizable as failure by most in and around that situation.  'US strategic oil reserves is at its lowest '   That part is more relevant to the argument as it should be the end of a program of selling, the reasons for energy price falling is long term and selling reserves has not altered that.  USA itself has an excess of gas, distributing that is occurring but natural gas is harder to supply the further across the world it is that requires it.
  We're really referring to commodity cost vs fiat inflation, prices will rise no matter what.   Alongside that the markets nationally are developing but not fast enough to meet demand overall especially in Asia I think there is the greatest shortage and demand rise with little supply in India or China.

If we are having this consumption of energies in abundance doesn't mean they can't went down in low supply, the most effective utilization for energy is to create an alternative to it and also encourage for recycling of the same energy for the people's use, there are other natural means we can also develope and generate energies from, all these will make the dependent on diesel or premium motor spirit reduced, then we also need to work out means to reduce global warming through the inefficient energy waste to the atmosphere affecting the ecosystem.

The World Order keeps changing every couple of decades and in that change different countries come to power, some lose their power entirely, sometimes partially. To put in three words, any new world order is the "shift of power". For example the Order before the last was a dual polar world where US and USSR were the powers. Before that it was UK instead of US.

In the New World Order, like other times, the power will shift. To which countries? It is not predictable, we can only speculate. But one thing is certain the last Word Order was the first time the world was unipolar and US reigned for ~30 years. That time has ended which simply means that all the powers US used to have over that time are going to slowly be taken away, some partially and some completely.

One of these powers were of course the Dollar and the endless printing of it followed by exporting the inflation to the rest of the world. In other words dedollarisation is only part of that transition.

But there is a lot more.
For example a lot of supposedly "international" organizations that were in reality American such as United Nations are going to either be dismantled or see a fundamental change to become actually international, maybe even change location to a more neutral place.
Another one would be that same exact acts won't be treated differently. For example when US invades a country it is the same as when Russia invades a country, as opposed to US invasions being called "war for piece" while Russian invasion be called "invasion"!

And a lot more. But how the world is going to be in the New Order remains to be seen because it depends on a lot of things like which players are going to rise to power and how much power each of them are going to have, how each country is going to get through this transitional phase, etc. and the transitional phase is chaotic by nature.

All opinions with reasoning have a right to life, it's silly to deny it.  I have one simple question - what in your understanding is the "New World Order"? I just want to understand how you evaluate or understand it. Different readings of the same expression can lead to senseless disputes because of equal perception of the essence. Some people, for example, think that it is "dedollarization" or, for example, "shifting the center of decision-making and influence towards the global South". So I will be glad to hear your position on the meaning of the expression "New World Order" ?

let me share another PoV regarding the situation in occupied Palestine concerning other countries and corridors:

As I pointed out in my other topic the biggest mistake any country can make these days is not accepting that the Old World Order is officially dead and in this transitional phase to the New World Order we only have a handful of "players" and the rest of the countries have to choose their side and play for one of these "teams". Preferably for the more powerful winning side.
In this "game" there are only two sides, East and West with West having only one player (US) while the East has 3 (Russia, China, Iran).
At this time if a country is geographically located in the East and is playing for the West (and vice versa), they will have to face the consequences. This is why we can no longer have any country that tries to play in the middle or stay neutral. This is why a country like Turkey for example that plays in the middle faces 80%-100% inflation, negative foreign reserves and is up to its neck in debt. This is why Poland, even small countries like Lithuania and Latvia have chosen side and are actively playing for that side. This is why we see Japanese laws are changing and Japan is being armed for war (for the Western side!). and so on...

Case in point the 2023 G20 summit. When some people were celebrating G20 summit with the Arabs and Indians participation with loads of propaganda in the mainstream media, what none of them realized (or wanted to hear) was that the decisions made in G20 was part of the Western puzzle which meant Eastern countries that participated in it, sooner or later would have to face the consequences of playing for the other side.
This was also clear from the fact that neither one of the 3 Eastern "players" were in it. That is: Russian president did not participate, neither did Chinese and Iran has never been part of it.

So when the IMEEC was agreed there, everyone should have expected it to blow up like this. A much longer, more expensive, more costly and far less secure corridor linking India to Europe through UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and finally the terrorist organization Israel. Not only this was economically and logistically stupid but also it was basically declaration of war against the Easter superpowers since it was going against all their corridors.

With Palestine rising up, IMEEC is no more than a fancy dream... and we have to wait to see at what degree these countries can come back to the Eastern controlled corridors that were previously established and agreed upon: namely Iran-Armenia-Georgia-EU, Iran-Turkey-EU, Iran-Iraq-Syria-EU.

P.S. Note that the corridor plan that went up in smokes wasn't just for goods, it also included energy transfer.

The following news is kind of off-topic but....
The US and Venezuela have agreed on a deal where the US eases oil sanctions and Venezuela holds internationally supervised elections.
Venezuela is the No. 1 country in terms of proven oil reserves (17.5% of the world's).

Apparently Maduro has had enough of the show and populism and realized that this is not the way to go.... To be more precise, he realized that the "joy of the people" from his rule can be "unpleasant continuation". The right way out is to come to a civilized framework, hold civilized elections, and return to a civilized market. Venezuela needs money and investments now. The country and its people deserve a normal life, the more so they have everything for it, they just need to manage it wisely.  And with democratic changes and good initiatives - Venezuela has excellent prospects. And so does the oil market. or rather the market has good prospects, the manipulators have bad ones !

So while on one side of the earth they are engaged in sabotage, on the other side they are creating, or at least laying the foundation for it.

Yes, last year Russia actually destroyed some world markets through its actions, because it wanted to establish a new world order. And it began with an attempt to seize Ukraine, an attempt to destroy this state and the Kremlin’s desire to annex its territories to its renewed empire. If this succeeded, then the next targets of Russia's attack would be Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, and also, depending on the unfolding events, Poland.
Simultaneously with the military invasion of Ukraine, Russia began to blackmail European countries, which were firmly on the oil and gas hook, by reducing oil and gas supplies so that Europe would not prevent it from destroying Ukraine. Most likely, this plan would have succeeded, and the new world order would have been based on wars, chaos and violence, the absorption of weak states by stronger ones.
Europe and even the United States and its allies have already come to terms with the possible seizure of Ukraine and offered its President Zelensky to leave the country and offered weapons only for waging guerrilla warfare under conditions of complete occupation.

But the cards of all the players of the new and old order were changed by the stubborn and heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people and their armed forces to the forces of the Russian occupiers, superior in all aspects. Only after seeing that the Ukrainians were capable of long-term resistance (not even victory at that time), the United States and Europe began to increase various assistance to Ukraine, if only in order to deplete the military and economic potential of Russia through the hands of the Ukrainians and reduce the likelihood of a military conflict with them. Now they have already realized that without eliminating the military threat through its destruction or at least long-term neutralization, there cannot be a civilized order based on respect for the sovereignty of the territorial integrity of states.

But Russia and its ally Iran do not give up their attempts to destabilize the world and the events of the attack on Israel, where they were active participants in the preparation of such an attack, are confirmation of this.

I doubt there is much of security understanding that the middle eastern countries can reach with the USA anymore. US has shown more than a few times that they can barely recognize their left bum from their right when it comes to military strategizing and fulfilling political objectives. The middle east countries are far more concerned about diversifying their economies away from oil.

Decreasing production is just a way to not let oil prices crash. Its their lifeblood till they can successfully diversify their economies, which itself is a huge task but the gulf is well aware of that and is deploying resources towards that. As far as US presence is concerned, i doubt anybody wants anything to do with the shit show that American society and culture is turning into. At one point, it stood for innovation and values; today its simply about money, influence and shenanigans. I doubt they very much care about whatever 'influence' the US has left at present.

At much smaller capacity now and under the full control of the Iraqi authorities not the separatist occupying the region and controlling the resources mass exporting it cheaply to EU pocketing the money themselves.

I said they are "poking" their enemy. Over the past day or two the Lebanese forces wiped out 5 major Israeli bases in Northern Occupied Palestine near the Lebanese border, these are mostly the radar and spying bases with high troop concentrations.
Region is not gonna see any conflict unless US gets involved, which they won't.

Quite the opposite, they are actually trying to increase the oil price and keep it up.
Check out their endless efforts in decreasing production willingly over the past year. You see it not only benefits them to sell their resources at a much higher price but also it helps them put pressure on US economy to force them to leave their region so that stability can come back.

I see that the USA is very keen on the energy file, and although the region and the countries that export these resources are areas of conflict, the United States still maintains a line of return to these countries. Let us take an example.
Iraq: The information mentioned about Kurdistan is inaccurate. On the contrary, despite the impact of the conflict in the US and Iran, there are still open channels for supplying oil and gas.
Russia: The price ceiling plan aims mainly to put pressure on Russia, but does not aim to stop oil exports.
Lebanon: Despite the clear conflict between some Lebanese forces in Israel and Lebanon, there is still an avoidance of igniting the region.
Palestine and the Arabs: There was a fear that the hostilities against the Palestinians in Gaza would be the beginning of igniting a war in the region, and yet the United States was pressing for that not to happen.
In short, it is an election year and the states will make every effort to make oil less than $100, and all the oil-producing countries are trying to reach security understandings in exchange for an oil price below $100.

What Russia is doing now, or rather started doing 2 years ago, is more correctly called "economic terrorism". The goal is very clear - not being able to work honestly on the market and in the community, it is necessary to look for ways to artificially increase the price of those products that Russia can still sell. This is what happened with gas in the EU, and this is what is happening with oil now.
But as we all know - after almost 2000 dollars per 1000 cubic meters from GazProm and Russia's demarche with gas supplies (although Putin claims that "sanctions were imposed against Russia in the gas industry"). ) the EU simply changed suppliers, and now there is more than enough gas, and the price has fallen to about 250 dollars per 1000 cubic meters.

We can also remember the same attempt but on the grain market. the result is similar to the "gas project" - it did not work

The oil market is of course different from the gas market, as oil reserves are not as widely available as gas, but.... I think this game will also end sooner or later. But now someone really wants to "light up" the East to drive up oil prices even more....

Yes, we still have difficult years ahead of us, but I believe that common sense will prevail.

The reason is cut and dry, resource-rich countries are target by many a colonizer for their respurces, and when someone tries to take shit from you, you always retaliate asan answer. As for coups and civil wars, the same could be said as well. Everyone’s got their own wars to wage cause all of them think they can govern the country better than the ones seated. When they finally get the opportunity like what happened with the Taliban they suddenly realize that it’s not just approving this and approving that within the government.

Palestine urges every other country on the planet to take its side but no one will since Israel is a formidable military force. Only way we can see an end in this god forsaken war is if someone drops a nuke on the other, and we know which one owns the warheads.

I don't know about Russia but there isn't anything left in Iran that US has not yet sanctioned. Over the past couple of years more than 90% of what they've been sanctioning were already sanctioned.

As people of Palestine say: "it is better to die once than die every day".

(Finally! You made a post that is on-topic.)

You are right, there are other things that are going on in the fuel market but read OP again, the point is that as a major diesel exporter Russia has been disrupting the market so that they can keep the pressure up on EU economy by also disrupting the economy as it is affected by diesel price.
They didn't even halt exports, it was a temporary ban which I believe was partially lifted after it successfully created the disruption they hoped for.

This is not the only disruption and not the only market and it is not only Russia disrupting different markets! Over the past year we have had every country that produces anything doing something to disrupt that market and play with prices.
We have oil and gas producers from Arabs to Americans messing with the energy market.
We have rice producers like India messing with rice price.
We have grain producers from Russia to a couple of East Asian countries messing with grain prices (remember the cooking oil shenanigans).
We have sugar producers disrupting the market specially after the El Nino hurricane hit some of them.
and so on...

We know that russia is one of the largest suppliers of diesel, but not the main one. Especially now India and China are taking the "palm" of supremacy in diesel production from oil from Russia.
But the problem is not in Russia at all, but in nuances. Among the nuances that have affected the decline in diesel production on a global scale are the following:
- Reduction of oil production by OPEC countries
- The situation is difficult for the global refining fleet, which has been suffering from insufficient production for months. The scorching heat in the Northern Hemisphere this summer has forced many refineries to run slower than usual, resulting in lower inventories.
- Forced shutdowns of less efficient refineries when oil demand fell to Covid-19 levels. Although consumption is now recovering, many refineries remain idle.
But experts say the diesel shortage could still ease with the onset of the cooler winter months, when weather constraints on refineries generally ease - even as some undergo routine seasonal maintenance.

Apart from the shortage of diesel fuel which can affect the global economic sector, there is another possibility for each country to use other fuels that are more environmentally friendly so that they can continue to carry out all the production of goods carried out so far. Because if production of goods has to stop due to a shortage of diesel fuel, this will actually be even worse for the country's economy, so several countries must try to deal with this better in order to continue producing goods as usual. Because when an energy that is often used has become very crisis and unstable, it will certainly cause other bad things to the economy and can even trigger wars to gain power in any case.

Russia and Iran have not yet been openly accused of helping Hamas carry out an attack on Israeli territory on October 7, although there is some evidence of this. At the time of the attack, Russia transferred Western military equipment to Hamas, which it captured in the war against Ukraine, in order to then accuse Ukraine of transferring it and achieve a reduction in arms supplies to Ukraine. That is, Russia at least knew about the upcoming Hamas attack, despite the fact that the preparations were carried out in strict secrecy and this came as a surprise even to Israeli intelligence. Over time, this will probably be confirmed, so Russia and Iran cannot avoid further sanctions.

The Putin regime has big problems associated with the attack on Ukraine, so it seeks to spark more military conflicts in the world, thereby diverting attention and assistance provided to Ukraine, as well as diverting the attention of its citizens from failures in Ukraine.

For the people of Palestine, the current war with Israel will not bring anything good, only additional suffering, death and destruction. But World War III has become closer than ever, although the situation is unlikely to develop into such a war. Most likely, Hamas will be destroyed and that will be the end of it.

We are aware that the main supplier of diesel fuel is Russia. Russia has been able to export diesel fuel on a daily average of about 1.1 million barrels, which indicates that Russia accounts for 10% of the global export of diesel fuel.

Now, the shortage of diesel fuel is a significant issue that seriously affects every nation's economy worldwide. And as far as I'm aware, the current answer is both reducing dependency on diesel fuel and increasing diesel fuel output in other nations.

Reference: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-21/russia-diesel-ban-threatens-to-roil-global-markets-if-it-lasts

In addition, I also want to mention another competition that we don't seem to hear much about semiconductor chip materials, almost all future technology development depends on this. And I also ask big questions about whether it can be a source of competition for big countries, specifically the Taiwan area issue, the risk of war in this area at one time seemed like we can believe that mainland China will make moves to absorb Taiwan.

The construction of a new polarized world order to avoid control from the United States on a global scale has also appeared a lot, and I also understand that the story of war is inevitable, areas are is a hot spot of war that really plays an important role in energy.