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Topic: Energy Crisis 2.0 in the New World Order era - page 4. (Read 2734 times)

legendary
Activity: 2422
Merit: 1191
Privacy Servers. Since 2009.
Regarding Russia - Russia has not given up on the dollar, moreover, it is critically dependent on it. There was a "show for show" when they "dedollarized" their reserves - buying many billions of dollars for yuan. After 3 months the yuan fell even more, and Russia lost several tens of billions of dollars on this "mega deal".

That's exactly like with Bitcoin - many were mocking and ridiculing Bitcoin investors for not selling during the top. But who cares what the price is as long as you don't sell you don't lose. The same here: if they don't want to keep their reserves in yuan why would they care about this price decrease and why would they care about the currency they no longer keep their reserves in?
legendary
Activity: 4424
Merit: 4794
pooya using your own chart.. (where you prefer $40 as norm..) yet it only achieved 40 range in 5-6 months of the last 5 years and (for emphasis) only due to the covid effect of affecting shipments which caused the futures market to sell off at a loss.. where futures contracts needed to be sold at losses to find a place that will accept the oil

pooya using your own chart.. look at the average when it wasnt the 6 month crash.. when it wasnt premium 6 months
its 60-80
over 20 years it was 50-70

current price is 70-80 in february meaning its in the norm range
we are no longer in the 1980's where oil was far less.. the new norm is always higher then 40 years ago(30-50 range for NORM)
we are no longer in the 2000's where oil was far less.. the new norm is always higher then 20 years ago(50-70 range for NORM)

40's is not an expected norm, we ate long passed the 1980's,
sorry time and inflation have moved on from 1980's norms
its like you are suggesting bitcoin should be $6 because $6 was 2012's norm/average...
.. sorry we have moved on from that market cycle. dont expect $6 again. we are a few market cycles away from those kind of price norms.. sorry
..
as for energy shortages..
macro:
well even in the 1980's they knew oil is not renewable. they even calculated potential reserves and put a supply depletion deadline of 2050 when all reserves are gone if staying at the demand growth rate predictions of 1980's forward, if nothing was done about it. this was the true trigger of then needing to shift to renewables by 2050.(climate was just the excuse to get funding via sympathy/ health fear(energy companies dont want to lose their profits. so prefer others pay the costs of changing the product/business model to keep their business in operation for the next generation) and why would people want to fund the early stoppage of using oil.. make it a health and safety concern)

micro:
dont treat the temporary events of supply issues (low demand or high supply or the opposite) or old prices as reasons for lower expectations of now.. what to expect now: nows price is  the norm for the next decade.. you know.. inflation compared to 20-40 years ago's price
dont expect things to go back to prices of the 1980's norms (30-50)
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 10611
heck you dont even know your own numbers
just a few posts ago you said about the real high of barrel $100-$120.. now you say high of $80 (chose a number and stick with it)
You need to expand your view and also check out the charts.


The peak of the energy crisis was 5-6 months as seen above, part of it was the price surpassing $100 and going as high as $120. The crisis wasn't just about higher price, it was also shortage in the market (there was a lot more demand than there was supply).

The crisis continues at a less severe state at lower prices such as the current $80.

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you also say for things to relax barrel needs to come down to $40. when that was the temporary crisis LOW of 2016 not the norm average
the norm average is more like $60($50-$70) where oil did actually see $70 this month so is actually getting back to its norm

40 is not norm.. so not a relax point.. 60-70 would be relax point
I disagree and still say price has to come down a lot more than even $70 to "relax" the market and become norm. Because what you are forgetting is that one of the reasons why energy price came down in first place was decreasing demand, the demand that went down due to deindustrialization and recession.
To be able to revive those dead sectors and help them come back to the tightly competing market, the price has to go down a lot lower (although a lot more is needed on top of lower energy price).
legendary
Activity: 3752
Merit: 1864
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when golds easy to access at the citizen level.. it means the institutional level is not in a hoarding season

Banks have been net buyers for a long time now, a couple decades the central banks have been buying and some have no selling at all.   Russia for example sells its dollars as a depreciating asset that makes some sense where as it believes the gold reserves its holding will only go up with all other factors serving that value.  China has gone from zero gold to holding an amount they dont want to release exactly, they control the market in effect as the largest buyer luckily they have managed to make themselves the largest producer also as well encouraging the population to hold gold.  India has already valued gold no change there, the government is negative on gold as it distracts from their inflationary fiat policy to tax their population however since India has large population growth and a young demographic even with no bullish trend in effect the country is accumulating gold within its borders.
  Obviously in the west the common worker is taxed heavily and will readily sell gold placing little value on it, I dont dispute that and I think it was Warren Buffet who said something like the cheapest gold to mine is on the highstreet.  Ie. the premium gained via pawn shops allows an easy profit on the arbitrage but even that billionaire doesnt recognize value in gold as an asset to hold so I'd attribute most value accumulating abroad in parts of Asia.
   China and India dont have oil so they will need the gold and the market should stay liquid in future for a hundred years I guess but I think both those markets are healthy for a very long time.  If we compare oil to coal, then the peak there was the steam age about 1900 or so and yet over a hundred years later coal is important still; thats how far oil has to go.

I'll give you a little bit of my opinion.
Regarding Russia - Russia has not given up on the dollar, moreover, it is critically dependent on it. There was a "show for show" when they "dedollarized" their reserves - buying many billions of dollars for yuan. After 3 months the yuan fell even more, and Russia lost several tens of billions of dollars on this "mega deal".

Regarding gold. It is a specific commodity, especially in a situation when the real reserves in the gold-currency reserves of countries are NOT KNOWN.
Plus - try to model the situation when, for example, China, due to economic problems, decides to sell gold. It will not be 1 kg, and not even 1 ton. imagine what will happen on the world gold market ? Especially since there is a VERY large amount of gold being mined ! It is a rather specific accumulation.
STT
legendary
Activity: 4102
Merit: 1454
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when golds easy to access at the citizen level.. it means the institutional level is not in a hoarding season

Banks have been net buyers for a long time now, a couple decades the central banks have been buying and some have no selling at all.   Russia for example sells its dollars as a depreciating asset that makes some sense where as it believes the gold reserves its holding will only go up with all other factors serving that value.  China has gone from zero gold to holding an amount they dont want to release exactly, they control the market in effect as the largest buyer luckily they have managed to make themselves the largest producer also as well encouraging the population to hold gold.  India has already valued gold no change there, the government is negative on gold as it distracts from their inflationary fiat policy to tax their population however since India has large population growth and a young demographic even with no bullish trend in effect the country is accumulating gold within its borders.
  Obviously in the west the common worker is taxed heavily and will readily sell gold placing little value on it, I dont dispute that and I think it was Warren Buffet who said something like the cheapest gold to mine is on the highstreet.  Ie. the premium gained via pawn shops allows an easy profit on the arbitrage but even that billionaire doesnt recognize value in gold as an asset to hold so I'd attribute most value accumulating abroad in parts of Asia.
   China and India dont have oil so they will need the gold and the market should stay liquid in future for a hundred years I guess but I think both those markets are healthy for a very long time.  If we compare oil to coal, then the peak there was the steam age about 1900 or so and yet over a hundred years later coal is important still; thats how far oil has to go.
legendary
Activity: 4424
Merit: 4794
as for you thinking oil should go down to $40 as "norm" pfft..
I didn't say it is norm, I said for the energy related issues to "relax" it needs to go that low.

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if you think oil and UK petrol should go down to pre 2008 levels (under $40 and under £1 respectively) as norms.. sorry but no, just no.
I actually think it should go up in price to be "norm" since the value is higher. I'm just putting two and two together:
1) I've already mentioned oil price being high per barrel ($80).

heck you dont even know your own numbers
just a few posts ago you said about the real high of barrel $100-$120.. now you say high of $80 (chose a number and stick with it)
..
you also say for things to relax barrel needs to come down to $40. when that was the temporary crisis LOW of 2016 not the norm average
the norm average is more like $60($50-$70) where oil did actually see $70 this month so is actually getting back to its norm

40 is not norm.. so not a relax point.. 60-70 would be relax point
legendary
Activity: 3752
Merit: 1864
I give people the benefit of the doubt, but from your history in the forum, I will only believe you if you can give me the links to information.

no the point is that you read something.. and then separately do your own research.. that way you dont need to be spoonfed like a child
EG try google "china gold real estate" and find many links from many sources instead of asking people on the forum to spoon fed you


 Roll Eyes

Do you actually believe that I post here and say some things WITHOUT doing my own research? Please ser, you've been taking advantage of the newbies with all your gaslighting. That's definitely why Gregory Maxwell and Andrew Chow, both very trusted developers in the Bitcoin community, have given you two negative trust-ratings.

Central Banks are hoarding, especially Central Banks of Russia and China, https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/chinas-gold-market-2023-demand-improved-and-premiums-rose


Everything is beautiful, but the figures about the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia and China, while officially classified by them, do not look very convincing. Most of the other financial and economic indicators in these countries are also classified and cannot be used for indirect assessment. The only thing left is to listen to what the party says, and believe the party ! Smiley
This is putting it mildly.
At the same time, there is information that, for example, Russia, in connection with sanctions, sells off gold to pay for sub-sanctioned goods and dual-use goods prohibited to be sent to Russia. So their indicator of gold reserves in gold and statements "we have more gold than anyone else and we buy it all the time" are not very convincing ...
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 10611
as for you thinking oil should go down to $40 as "norm" pfft..
I didn't say it is norm, I said for the energy related issues to "relax" it needs to go that low.

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if you think oil and UK petrol should go down to pre 2008 levels (under $40 and under £1 respectively) as norms.. sorry but no, just no.
I actually think it should go up in price to be "norm" since the value is higher. I'm just putting two and two together:
1) I've already mentioned oil price being high per barrel ($80).
2) There are increased additional costs for anything that reaches Europe from the sea (since US decided to turn the sea into a battlefield in support of genocide in Palestine)
2.1) The travel costs went up since certain vessels have to change course and instead of passing Red Sea they have to go around the entire African continent. This adds 30-40 days travel time which means higher cost
2.2) The insurance cost went up too since the risks are higher.

That's the situation in the past ~4 months. Early on some reports talked of a 2x rise. That has only gone up with more tensions.

2.3) Specific to UK, all these costs are higher because UK decided to join US and London in support of genocide, declared war on Yemen that supports Palestine. That effectively turned all British vessels into legitimate targets which has not only increased all those costs but also increased shortage (nobody wants to work for UK and British or British linked ships are attacked/damaged).
Not a week goes by without 3-5 UK or US ships being attacked like HMS Diamond (royal navy destroyer that was incapacitated) or Marlin Luanda (the British tanker that burned for 2 days).


By all logic, an oil product like petrol has to go up in price not down. That's unless it is being kept down.
legendary
Activity: 4424
Merit: 4794
fuel costs(energy crisis) is relaxing
Energy crisis "relaxes" when two things happen, first is when energy prices come down (eg. oil goes back down to at least $40 which is half its current price) and second is when energy sources become stable and the routes become safe again. Neither of these has happened for the energy crisis to relax. Now about:
here in the UK fuel costs went upto £2/litre petrol and now back to £1.36/litre petrol
US went upto $6/gal now back in the $3.20/gal range
Last time petrol was £1.4 ish was in 2020 when the COVID had shut down the economy and oil price was about $20-$30 per barrel. That's the only way true value of petrol can reach £1.4.
Today oil price is still $80 ish per barrel and despite deindustrialization, the UK economy hasn't shut down like COVID time.

That means the only way price can be £1.4 ish today is if the government is artificially keeping it down by injecting lots of money into it. That money is taken out of every citizens pocket which means it has worse economic consequences down the line even if things seem good in short term.

So as I said, things regarding "Energy Crisis" have gotten slightly better (that is for example oil is no longer $100-$120 per barrel) but we are far from things actually relaxing and something like petrol really reaching £1.4 per liter.

first of all the oil cost crash of 2020 was the fluke due to futures trades that couldnt facilitate delivery. so people were literally paying refineries to take the contracts..
dont confuse short events of critical events..  with norm expectations

as for you thinking oil should go down to $40 as "norm" pfft.. yet the average of last 20 years is higher then $40.. average is more like $60($50-$70).. and oil has been seen to be $70 in february.. and not been near the $110 peak for a while(May 2022)

the petrol prices in the UK lingered around the £1.20-£1.40 from 2011.. so the expectant back to reality compared to the highs of £2 peak is getting back to the below £1.40 range .. i drove passed 4 petrol stations today. all priced £1.369, which is about the same price average i seen 2011-2019

if you think oil and UK petrol should go down to pre 2008 levels (under $40 and under £1 respectively) as norms.. sorry but no, just no.
,,
side note. since 2004(20 years) the only times oil went as low as $40. was 5 months(nov2015-march2016) and then the futures oil deal crisis of 2020
$40 is not the expected norm. its the temp crash periods

separate debate:
the reason fossil fuel costs have come down but the electrification of fossil power plants and renewables are still high. is because governments are charging carbon credits to fossil energy companies which sell on and average out over the grid to make even regions highly involved in renewable higher price because the grid spreads the carbon costs to an average per resident even if its green energy.

legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 10611
fuel costs(energy crisis) is relaxing
Energy crisis "relaxes" when two things happen, first is when energy prices come down (eg. oil goes back down to at least $40 which is half its current price) and second is when energy sources become stable and the routes become safe again. Neither of these has happened for the energy crisis to relax. Now about:
here in the UK fuel costs went upto £2/litre petrol and now back to £1.36/litre petrol
US went upto $6/gal now back in the $3.20/gal range
Last time petrol was £1.4 ish was in 2020 when the COVID had shut down the economy and oil price was about $20-$30 per barrel. That's the only way true value of petrol can reach £1.4.
Today oil price is still $80 ish per barrel and despite deindustrialization, the UK economy hasn't shut down like COVID time.

That means the only way price can be £1.4 ish today is if the government is artificially keeping it down by injecting lots of money into it. That money is taken out of every citizens pocket which means it has worse economic consequences down the line even if things seem good in short term.

So as I said, things regarding "Energy Crisis" have gotten slightly better (that is for example oil is no longer $100-$120 per barrel) but we are far from things actually relaxing and something like petrol really reaching £1.4 per liter.
legendary
Activity: 4424
Merit: 4794
Are big Gold countries actually selling right now?
...

when golds easy to access at the citizen level.. it means the institutional level is not in a hoarding season
when its available via vending machines instead of jewellers/collectors. they are literally trying to throw it at people like snacks

https://www.walmart.com/browse/jewelry/gold-bars/3891_4718514_3708899_8655615
(able to buy gold in walmart of all places, speaks for itself as to how open the market is)

Your point is good BUT Walmart is not a good example, they are not selling gold on their site, but rather 3rd party vendors, and gold vending machines are more for bragging rights.

its more about when the gold hoarders are selling to the working-lower class consumers of walmart demograph, and not doing private trade at the rolex/lambo crowd. you soon spot how much they want to get rid of gold

again gold is at its near ATH of ALL history.. so not a buying time, especially when the causes of the ATH have passed.. expect a correction


....
as for energy.. fuel costs are coming down to normal levels. which mean production, mining, and construction becomes reasonable again. because facts show the main costs of construction, production, mining is the energy cost. not labour

labour cost is more of a concern in the consumer market of retail

Don't know where in the world you are located, but in most parts energy prices are at some of their lowest point in years. Not getting there, not coming down, but there.

im in the UK but i also see the views of other places

here in the UK fuel costs went upto £2/litre petrol and now back to £1.36/litre petrol
US went upto $6/gal now back in the $3.20/gal range
legendary
Activity: 3500
Merit: 6320
Crypto Swap Exchange
Are big Gold countries actually selling right now?
...

when golds easy to access at the citizen level.. it means the institutional level is not in a hoarding season
when its available via vending machines instead of jewellers/collectors. they are literally trying to throw it at people like snacks

https://www.walmart.com/browse/jewelry/gold-bars/3891_4718514_3708899_8655615
(able to buy gold in walmart of all places, speaks for itself as to how open the market is)

...


Your point is good BUT Walmart is not a good example, they are not selling gold on their site, but rather 3rd party vendors, and gold vending machines are more for bragging rights.

....
as for energy.. fuel costs are coming down to normal levels. which mean production, mining, and construction becomes reasonable again. because facts show the main costs of construction, production, mining is the energy cost. not labour

labour cost is more of a concern in the consumer market of retail

Don't know where in the world you are located, but in most parts energy prices are at some of their lowest point in years. Not getting there, not coming down, but there.



A lot of what you are seeing now in terms of energy prices are in locations where more infrastructure is being built, which is expensive, which will cause the price to the consumer to rise. Or where infrastructure has been neglected for decades and has to be repaired / replaced which is also expensive and will cause the price to the consumer to rise.



The other side is believe it or not there are more and more people who care less and less about the pricing so it's causing weird things to happen to the retail price of fuel / energy.

I drive an EV that has free charging included (OK, I know it's not free it was buried in the price of the car by the manufacturer) but to me at this point I just plug in and charge.
My neighbor has a PHEV, and has solar. So for him filling the battery is free (or close enough that it does not matter) and it uses so little gas that he just fills wherever. $2.00 a gallon or $4.00 a gallon. When you are burning 50 gallons a year at most, it's not worth the time to care about that.

Offices are now using LEDs, and more efficient heat & cooling.

And so on.

Even when I had the Accord that got 40+MPG I cared about gas pricing. Before I went to full LED in the condo I was more careful to turn lights off.
Now if I have every bulb on at once it's still less then 60W

So prices are dropping, and on an individual level most people are using less energy.

On the large scale more energy & fuel is being used, but there are now 8 billion people here in 2010 there were 7 billion. So that's going to be a larger part of it.

-Dave
legendary
Activity: 4424
Merit: 4794
they gave negative trust rating because your clown army you support(doomad hosted) cried to them with victim tears.

as for your research.
you dont read code or blockdata or find real statistics or data.  your research is asking someone their opinion on things and then you copy their opinion.
you are defined as a spoonfed consumer sucking up anything handed to you. not a researcher.

from looking at your opinions they all sound like copy and pastes from social/mainstream media.
when you dont sound like doomad, stompix, you sound like fox news

even your insults are a copy and paste

as for your incessant overuse of the word gaslight.. you need to see who's fueling your flames and causing you to get burnt. the vapour that comes to you is piped in from idiots. if your getting burned by it.. change your fuel source..
because you have become as useful as a gas flaring chimney. not utility gas

..
the main debates i had with gregmaxwell was about how segwit allows junk data to get into blockchain unvalidated due to backward compatibilities lack of need for network readiness/activation of understanding, having rules new formats of transactions... and ordinals proves the exploit

even your mentor doomad now knows i was right, but still hates that i even dare challenge/scrutinise the beloved gods you idolise and trust


as for chinas gold buy.. such wow. they increased their hoard by 'meh' 10%... and are now offering out gold to help incentivise the unfinished real estate projects to be bought up at market rate by offering buyers a gold brick..
.. instead of discounting the real estate, which would ripple market price decline for other finished housing

EG if a gold brick is $75k and average apartment price is $300k
instead of offering unfinished real estate at $225k to spark buy-ups. they still offer real estate at $300k but give the buyer a $75k gold brick
thus the real estate market stays on paper at the $300k rate and not decline by 25%
get it yet

its the same trick employers do(but opposite to keep salaries low). instead of pay rises which spark inflation, they offer employee's other benefits like pre-tax pensions and healthcare schemes. so that they can keep the salary market competitive(low)

..
as for energy.. fuel costs are coming down to normal levels. which mean production, mining, and construction becomes reasonable again. because facts show the main costs of construction, production, mining is the energy cost. not labour

labour cost is more of a concern in the consumer market of retail
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1823
I give people the benefit of the doubt, but from your history in the forum, I will only believe you if you can give me the links to information.

no the point is that you read something.. and then separately do your own research.. that way you dont need to be spoonfed like a child
EG try google "china gold real estate" and find many links from many sources instead of asking people on the forum to spoon fed you


 Roll Eyes

Do you actually believe that I post here and say some things WITHOUT doing my own research? Please ser, you've been taking advantage of the newbies with all your gaslighting. That's definitely why Gregory Maxwell and Andrew Chow, both very trusted developers in the Bitcoin community, have given you two negative trust-ratings.

Central Banks are hoarding, especially Central Banks of Russia and China, https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/chinas-gold-market-2023-demand-improved-and-premiums-rose
legendary
Activity: 4424
Merit: 4794
I give people the benefit of the doubt, but from your history in the forum, I will only believe you if you can give me the links to information.

no the point is that you read something.. and then separately do your own research.. that way you dont need to be spoonfed like a child
EG try google "china gold real estate" and find many links from many sources instead of asking people on the forum to spoon fed you

my history (trust rating) you keep refering to is your religious zeolets of core dev god worship, plead to core devs as gods and moderators to defend them because im calling them out on their (thus your via echo) BS.. and the social circle completes. for you to then pretend the trust rating is independent proof of anything, is a laugh..because its all linked to your tribes cries,, so proves nothing but that your clan cry when defeated

its time you start to do some independent research and stop being spoonfed by a cult or anyone
it only takes a few seconds to break from your cycle of adoration of the religion that recruited you. think for yourself and try to learn new things that dont sound like an echo of an idiot. that also includes when you blindly suck up to stompix(guestimate guy) too..

anyways
fuel costs(energy crisis) is relaxing meaning costs of goods are relaxing meaning even gold mining will get cheaper. so with it already being on a high, not a great time to buy.. and yes you could have learned this before i told you, should you ever bothered to research energy details when making this topic..
yep independent research about energy would have taught you gold is about to correct so also doing independant research on reasons for "buy low sell high" would have added more weight to research, and then looking at the market gateways of obtaining gold would have added more weight to which you could have informed your own opinion that gold is at its peak not its bottom
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1823
Are big Gold countries actually selling right now?


when golds easy to access at the citizen level.. it means the institutional level is not in a hoarding season
when its available via vending machines instead of jewellers/collectors. they are literally trying to throw it at people like snacks

https://www.walmart.com/browse/jewelry/gold-bars/3891_4718514_3708899_8655615
(able to buy gold in walmart of all places, speaks for itself as to how open the market is)

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2023/06/16/Korea-gold-bars-vending-machines-convenience-stores/4781686942588/
(south korean convenience stores)


A more open market for small buyers of Gold is not an indicator that institutions are not hoarding. It's the price. That's truly the best indicator if an asset is in high demand or not, no? Where is Gold's price now?

Plus a simple search would tell you that China, Russia, and some of the world's Central Banks are actually hoarding Gold.

Plus why would anyone give Gold away to the people when it's currently such a valuable commodity? ESPECIALLY NOW with these prices.


(this might help you understand more about another topics real progress)
imagine china has some real estate that needs buying up due to it being unfinished, so that money can complete it.. but doesnt want to down rate the property prices as it would affect the whole real estate market of other properties prices of houses that are complete.. so they keep the prices at finished prices but give the buyers some gold on completion


I give people the benefit of the doubt, but from your history in the forum, I will only believe you if you can give me the links to information.
legendary
Activity: 4424
Merit: 4794
Are big Gold countries actually selling right now?


when golds easy to access at the citizen level.. it means the institutional level is not in a hoarding season
when its available via vending machines instead of jewellers/collectors. they are literally trying to throw it at people like snacks

https://www.walmart.com/browse/jewelry/gold-bars/3891_4718514_3708899_8655615
(able to buy gold in walmart of all places, speaks for itself as to how open the market is)

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2023/06/16/Korea-gold-bars-vending-machines-convenience-stores/4781686942588/
(south korean convenience stores)

Plus why would anyone give Gold away to the people when it's currently such a valuable commodity? ESPECIALLY NOW with these prices.

(this might help you understand more about another topics real progress)
imagine china has some real estate that needs buying up due to it being unfinished, so that money can complete it.. but doesnt want to down rate the property prices as it would affect the whole real estate market of other properties prices of houses that are complete.. so they keep the prices at finished prices but give the buyers some gold on completion
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1823
But it's always better to be ready, and HODL/own hard assets like Gold,

i wouldnt suggest buying gold right now

looking at golds all-history market. (ATH $2.075 ) today gold is($2025) in the top 97% of ATH
(remember buy low sell high, not the opposite)

when you see big gold countries selling or giving gold away to citizens. the elites are on a selling spree. they dont want to keep gold
when normal people are being told to buy gold its because those already with gold want to sell


Are big Gold countries actually selling right now? It was merely two years ago that some Central Banks have been said to be hoarding Gold. Russia has also been said to be hoarding Gold since the Russo-Ukrainian War started.

Plus why would anyone give Gold away to the people when it's currently such a valuable commodity? ESPECIALLY NOW with these prices.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Quote

its also worth noting normal people never get to trade gold at true spot price. many only have access to gold via shady "cash for gold" kiosks where the spread of spot vs retail price is huge and not helpful for those normal people wanting to buy/sell gold. they always get the worse deals

another hint
fuel costs have come back down to 2021 levels (unlike the june 2022 ATH of gasoline). so its becoming cheaper to mine gold again. this will play out next gold mining season when miners are throwing tonnes of gold onto the market that they mined cheaper than the previous couple years


Get the context. It's not about investment nor "trading". It's about owning a hard asset that could be used as a form of money, like Bitcoin, as a fall-back/back-up in case there's a monetary crisis.
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 10611
I'm wrong in my topic that there will be a period of Deflation during 2023, and I believe that would have a higher probility of happening than a New World Era within ten years. Cool
The old World Order is already dead, there is no other choice to have a New World Order. The only thing left for discussion is how that order is going to be and which countries have how much of the "cake of power".

As for your prediction, there are a lot of "ifs" over the past 2 years. For example I've been predicting that "if interest rates come down, bitcoin price shoots up". That "if" never happened so we only had small rises.
It's the same with your Deflation Period prediction. A lot of things didn't happen that were needed to lead to that. We have had signals for both worsening and improving economic situation at the same time in the past year at least!!! So it's no longer about being right or wrong, it is about knowing all these signals and seeing which one gets stronger to be able to predict the most probable outcome.

For example take the recent Putin interview with an American mouthpiece. Many are taking it as a way to prepare the American population for the end of the NATO-Russian war. US regime desperately needs it too since they need to focus on China not have their weapons storages depleted. Specially since neither sanctions worked on Russia (IMF predicts higher GDP growth for Russia next year compared to Eurozone which is closer to zero!) nor their weapons were capable of slowing down Russian advances.
At the same time we have others like UK and some in US regime that are pushing for more war with Russia (ie. pushing Eastern Europe to fight with Russia while they stay far).

But it's always better to be ready, and HODL/own hard assets like Gold, Land, and Bitcoin. I believe which should be the actual point of these topics, not as trying to be a predictor of major changes in the world.
Well the two are linked. The major changes in the world are what's affecting these markets. "Speculating" about one helps you speculate about others.

I pointed these things out in the past like this discussion from 2022 and in a lot of my comments and other topics like this one where I post my thoughts on these major changes and their effects on the economy. You can see around the times of the first topic gold price was around $1600 ish and it kept rising as things I explained happened (eg. countries and central banks continued buying a lot of gold).
That's a 25% profit in a little more than a year in a solid market for those who used this analysis.

Today we are at a high and the rise has slowed down, so it is not the best time to start buying but also the signs I've discussed in the past haven't vanished. Countries are still amassing gold silently and the world is inching towards more conflict which would make demand for gold rise.
This means I wouldn't recommend buying more gold  right now but also I wouldn't start selling either.


P.S. I believe this is the first time I'm brining this up in here, but about the main topic I have to mention the strait of Gibraltar. Just saying... things could get intense over there... that would choke Europe's economy...
...129 days of Genocide...
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But it's always better to be ready, and HODL/own hard assets like Gold,

i wouldnt suggest buying gold right now

looking at golds all-history market. (ATH $2.075 ) today gold is($2025) in the top 97% of ATH
(remember buy low sell high, not the opposite)

when you see big gold countries selling or giving gold away to citizens. the elites are on a selling spree. they dont want to keep gold
when normal people are being told to buy gold its because those already with gold want to sell

its also worth noting normal people never get to trade gold at true spot price. many only have access to gold via shady "cash for gold" kiosks where the spread of spot vs retail price is huge and not helpful for those normal people wanting to buy/sell gold. they always get the worse deals

another hint
fuel costs have come back down to 2021 levels (unlike the june 2022 ATH of gasoline). so its becoming cheaper to mine gold again. this will play out next gold mining season when miners are throwing tonnes of gold onto the market that they mined cheaper than the previous couple years
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