Topic: Esports Prediction & Discussion Thread - page 61. (Read 79148 times)

It's too early to say when they only surprised us with that one upset so far, and Azure Ray is still a solid team with veteran players who've been to TI several times.

On paper, LGD should win, but it still depends because 9Pandas showed in the second phase they can play well, and their chances of beating LGD should be higher when they've already done it before during the Riyadh Masters.

I agree the Talon series will be a banger, but it sucks that one of them will be knocked down early in the playoffs.

Yeah, I'd agree now that nouns are the dark horse and least favorite of fans on this version of TI. They're all exceptional and IIRC, whenever K1 is placed on, his team gets a buff. His former team and teammates were already out of the tournament ending in the 17th-20th place. Good thing that he was kicked back there and went taken by a better team because he's a talented carry.

I am now in belief that Team Spirit is making this tournament easy. If you guys remember it was the prime of OG and Nigma when they made every single tournament easy on their hands. This is what it looks like for Team Spirit, despite that they've been already a TI champ, it's like they have never been weakened by season. Maybe not now but soon they will, anyway, that's not the matter as they seem to be still dominant and on their prime.

We can fairly say that Nouns are the dark horses of TI right ? With that high pace Dota 2 they play , I won't be surprised if a lot of teams will face difficulties playing against them and Azure might be the first victim of them on main stage.

LGD vs 9pandas should be the game of the day where normally we get 3 maps and LGD as winner.

Liquid vs Talon ...this game I think will give us one of the finalist as both teams are playing amazingly so far. 

I thought that you'll do it on the upcoming matches on Friday but you just did it. Congratulations len! Predicting kills is harder than choosing how many minutes the game will take and who's the match winner.

Yeah, that's also the observation that I see from the Chinese teams. They're like having more kills but longer games if they can't end the game as soon as possible. It's like a turtling game because that's what they're good at.

I feel that it looks like it was nothing before but the actual impact of that Witch Doctor from the match they had with nouns could probably put trauma to them. Maybe they'll use that hero against Entity or much better that they should ban it as Gabbi could use that hero against them.

This is like the first long weekdays for the players as well and after this, the semifinals and then the grandfinals. I agree with you that it's better if the break just took 3 days but anyway, that's how long Valve wants them to take a break and rest for this TI.

It will be incredibly interesting to watch how Tundra will play in the lower bracket, especially if they pick Witch Doctor against them, or now they will ban him in every game?
There will be no room for error.

5 days of rest is too much in my opinion. I hope I don’t lose the good mood during this time that I had during the group stage. Anyway, I would like to see a 3 day break, not 5. However, this is good for the teams, they will be able to walk around the city and see interesting places to recharge themselves. Of course after analyzing all the games of opponents. After this, the victories of the underdogs can continue, although this rarely happens in the lower bracket.

Before this placing in the bracketing, they were really the contender and the favorite of the crowd and even the bookies. But now that they're in the losers bracket, I don't think that odds should be retained and still be favorable to them. Looking at the teams that are in the losers bracket, you'll never know if they will survive and if they do, it's all about going through hell on them.

Great odds are with nouns and even after sending Tundra to the lower bracket, many still underestimate them but that's it. Next week, they'll be up against Azure Ray in the upper bracket and AR isn't just a simple team, they're still the Chinese power house. It's like an incomplete set for this TI because we only get 1 team remaining from the China region and from the SEA region. But that's it, we all have to wait for the changes that Valve will make about the next qualification for TI13. Going back to the teams and TI, we have got five days of rest before we see some actions again. I am sure that most teams will review each gameplays and obviously their opponents.

In fact this type of upsets are actually going to get alot of kills though so its kinda understandable that he won the bet. The thing that made me surprise was actually the total odds combined are over 3.5x which is pretty good. I honestly thought it would be pretty one sided game for Tundra so I picked -1.5 for Tundra on this game so yeah that one got busted


Nouns read Tundra like a book therefore they won, probably because Tundra also underestimated Nouns as well

I know that many people don’t like betting on the winner of the TI, but I continue to monitor this indicator out of curiosity. One of my interesting observations was that the Tundra’s odds decreased from x6.80 to x5.00. Now it is located between Team Liquid with x4.50 (was x5.20)) and LGD Gaming (x7.00 (was x11.00)). This means that bookmakers estimate very highly that Tunda can win the tournament even from the losers’ bracket. I don't believe in this at all.

As for the team with the highest odds, it is nouns, who showed a simply amazing game. Now the main question is whether they could continue to play the same way. If someone believes in their victory, they can bet on their victory in the grand final x100.0 (previously it was x151) 

Most of the game on the upper bracket is one-sided which result to a total kill fest on most games. The odds says everything which bookmaker expected this will gonna happened due to the match up of Top tier to bottom teams except the match between Tundra vs Nouns which no one probably predicted this upset.

You are lucky that they still have a lot of kills on map despite this match is an upset game. I didn’t watch the match, anyone can share what’s the reason for this upset?

I told you I can!  take a look at my strange bet

I just tried to predict from the kill results of several these teams and all them were almost over 42.5

LGD has playing style that is almost similar to Team Liquid, which is very fast but has a lot of kills, but Team Liquid usually plays very fast with few kills. and for Nouns, I would be surprised if could beat Tundra who is TI11 champion.

Hey len, that was close and that's just one! But you're right that this is a good reference for you next week when we go into the playoffs.

They know that they can take EG easily and that's why they're not giving any chance. But that's okay, you're almost there and that should be great money for you. Anyway, better luck next week.

They fell short and almost there but Virtus.Pro was just good on that one in securing the entire series. They don't even want that to go through a third game. The next bracketing is still a best of 3 series and that's also another harder part to all of them.

Yeah it looks its going to be a while until we get decent odds on the playoff


Similar thoughts on this, I had LGD-1.5 as well on parlay with Tundra and BB but the odds sucks so taking this SA team to win a map from PSG.LGD might not be a bad choice afterall

I picked over 2.5 maps though as the odds for Keyd +1.5 is smaller than over 2.5 maps hence I picked it. Either way PSG.LGD is far superior so I honestly dont see how they will lose even if by some miracle chance, Keyd stars managed to steal the 1st map from them

Odds on favorites are total rubbish, especially now that we are playing BO3.

I was looking at the games and wanted to play LGD to win 2:0 against Keyd stars, I expected odds like 1.7, 1.6 at least and then i see that that outcome is paying only 1.3. That is totally unrealistic and I changed my bet to Keyd Stars to take one map @3.3. I fully expect LGD to win but anybody can loose one map in DOTA, maybe some cheese last pick or something. Much better value for me.

LoL, I almost won, but it does not matter, this can be my reference for betting in the next match.

Team Liquid beat EG without giving them chance to win 1x and it was my mistake to choose to bet on total map and I should have chosen to bet on the total kills.

and TSM almost made comeback but Virtus.pro was able to turn things around and secure victory in the first and second maps.

Guess I was right, GG ended up making it to the next group stage as 2nd in group C. I think the other teams are improving better compared to GG but GG is going to atleast make it to top 4 as they are still top tier teams. Their only concern is probably keeping strat most of the time which always makes them looks like a pretty silly team on earlier stage


Pretty sure this is, I dont think the seeding decider games are important so I guess we might see alot of upsets today

It seems that it was a bit too late to bet on favourites because bookies have decreased their odds for teams like Team Spirit, LGD and Team Liquid. You could have gotten atleast 2 for all those team on their first one or two games.


Having a good record so far with my picks  

It's okay if you think that you've been left behind but this is what the goodness of Dota 2, anyone can come back whenever they want to. And the tournament has now moved to phase two. The first group stages are only 2 matches and they're a points system. The next one is the seeding decider for which teams will be placed in either the upper bracket or lower bracket depending on the results of this phase two. And from there, we'll go to the main event which is the main event up to the finals. This is where it becomes more interesting because most teams are going to release their hidden strategies or heroes that they're preserving for them to move to the next bracket. Many are betting on this stage because there won't be tie unlike the first round of the group stages so it's either you win or lose and there's no draw on this one. That's why if you've seen the books provided for two matches only yesterday and the other day, that's because it is the format of the group stages.

The first big Counter Strike 2 tournament is coming up next week with the IEM Sydney 2023. It's going to be awesome to see the professional play the new game and how much it has involved. Especially with the mechanics of the new smoke grenades we should be seeing some awesome tactics. On Monday the first match is already going to be with NaVi playing against Apeks which should be a clear win for NaVi. They had a disappointing final last tournament playing against Mouz 3-0, but I think against Apeks they should win without problems. Mouz directly plays the second match against VERTEX, which is going to be very one sided and I don't see any chance for Mouz to lose it. In the third match Vitality is playing against the new Russian team BetBoom, which I haven't seen playing before. Vitality with all their experience should pull through. Also FaZe against GamerLegion should be a good way to get a free win for FaZe. These are all best of one games and I don't see many surprises happening. The only issue is that there could be some new CS2 gameplay that some of the older players are not ready for. Cloud9 vs fnatic is going to be one of the old rivals meeting again, but I don’t see many chances for fnatic to win this one. The two teams met in August this year and Cloud9 beat them 2-0 without a problem. G2 vs Grayhound is going to be another one sided game and my money is going to be on G2 for the match.

since the start of the football season I have left Dota 2 betting for moment but I will always be present betting at TI12 like at TI11 last year. TBH, I already far behind on any updates and for now the predictions I am starting are just to try to read situation that will happen in the future and see betting options given by the bookie, there are 3 maps and I am sure that match will last up to 3 maps. like the first match yesterday, bookie provided only 2 maps and all matches ended in 2 maps only, but for this 2nd match there will be more matches up to map 3.
I hope my prediction is correct.

While that's true but we need to move forward and just look at how these teams beat each other's asses and we're done with the first phase of the tournament which is the group stages. There have been 4 teams that are already eliminated which I'll be posting below. This tournament is no longer all about the prizes but still about the glory, we've got some 2-time TI champ hopefuls that are competing on the tournament and the only one that's a three-peat hopeful whom is Topson playing with Tundra.

Yeah, that was a surprising bug but then Icefrog(Wyk) has already fixed that bug immediately. Another meme again for everyone to see that this game is still in beta.

Team Spirit is untouchable and seems like they're the best contender to have a two-peat TI championship. Well for GG, it's to be expected that they've been unbeatable all over this year but let's still see as the tournament hasn't ended yet.

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These are the teams eliminated and they're on their way to the airport;

• Team SMG of SEA
• Thunder Awaken of SA
• Beastcoast of SA
• PSG Quest of WEU

I hope that you are right on this since GG usually easily knock down whenever they show weak start on the group stage. Their strong form has the chance to give Team Spirit close fight.

I notice the significant changes on the TI format. Is this phase 2 seeding is new? I remember having a group stage with 2 group before which is much fair since the team with slow start can recover by beating the remaining matches. It’s very odd to be early kick out on TI by few matches against 4 teams only.