UFC Fight Night 174 
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!WIN - Take
Jesse Ronson over Nicolas Dalby (7:25p.m., Saturday, July 25th)
In the welterweight division, we have a matchup between Jesse Ronson (21-10) and Nicolas Dalby (18-3). Ronson and Dalby have something in common, in the fact that both were previously cut by the UFC, only to find their way back again after some decent performances on the regional scene. Ronson was a Canadian prospect, which the UFC had high hopes for, but it never really panned out, which can be seen by his 0-3 record in the organization. Unfortunately for him, all losses were by split decision! Ronson is not a bad fighter, and in fact does possess a fair bit of talent but seems to struggle the brighter the lights. Dalby on the other hand is not all that good but is extremely tough and seems to shine in difficult circumstances. Dalby is a little quicker and utilizes space and distance better than Ronson, but Ronson is more technical in his abilities and has the power advantage. Dalby looks good until he gets cracked, which seems to happen every single fight. We expect Dalby to walk forward and out-volume Ronson in the early going, but eventually some bigger shots should land from Ronson at which point will start to change the momentum of the fight and win over the judges. This will probably end up being a sloppy fight, which could go either way, and the current price of +220 is slightly absurd. We believe Dalby should probably be the favorite, but barely. We will happily take a shot on the Canadian who will look to pick up his first UFC victory in a must-win fight, for his career.
LOSS - Take
Peter Sobotta over Alex Oliveira (8:40p.m., Saturday, July 25th)
In another welterweight bout, we will see Peter Sobotta (17-6) take on Alex "Cowboy" Oliveira (21-8). This is a fun fight. Cowboy brings it each time and has not been in a boring fight his entire career. Oliveira brings a ton of pressure from the start, and looks to kill his opponents, but that does make him an unpredictable, wild card. He leaves himself open to big power shots, and finds himself on the ground more often than he would like due to the crazy scramble, grappling exchanges he creates as he comes crashing in. One thing we should note is that Cowboy has been submitted 4 times in his MMA career, and he will have to mind his p's and q's when facing Peter Sobotta. Sobotta is an extremely dangerous fighter, and a tough stylistic matchup for Oliveira. He has a Black Belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Dean Lister and has 10 wins by submission. He has incredible technique on the mat and will surely hold the advantage in that department, and he potentially is even more dangerous off his back. Sobotta has been working sporadically over the years on his striking technique in Thailand and it is clearly showing signs of improvement! What was once a weakness, is now a somewhat decent addition to his game. There is no doubt over the course of 15 minutes, Oliveira will be the more dangerous striker, but it will not be as one sided as most think. Sobotta does not have the best entry wrestling game so we understand why he is the underdog here, but we also understand the fight IQ and wild style of Cowboy. We expect this to go to the mat at some point, and probably more than once, and Sobotta should be able to dominate. This feels more like a coin-flip, so we will take the value on Sobotta at the current market price of +150.
WIN - Take
Paul Craig over Gadzhimurad Antigulov (9:10p.m., Saturday, July 25th)
In the light-heavyweight division we have a matchup between Paul Craig (12-4) and Gadzhimurad Antigulov (20-6). When looking at this fight on paper and from a statistical standpoint it seems like a coin flip, but after studying tape, some things become much clearer. Antigulov is fairly big for the division and always has a hard weight cut, and after looking good in his first two fights, the wear on those weight cuts is starting to become evident - This can be seen by his last two which he lost via knockout after significantly slowing down early in each fight. It is clear that his cardio and chin are questionable at best. Antigulov is a master in freestyle wrestling, and he will be looking to ground his opponent as quickly as possible, but against a fighter like Paul Craig, that could be a death sentence. Craig is a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but seems to perform at black-belt level when in the octagon. In his 12 wins, 11 have come by way of submission, including the legendary last second triangle-choke submission he caught Ankalaev in after being dominated for all 3 rounds. That showed us he is always live to pull off anything at any given moment if you lose concentration for just one second. Antigulov is no slouch on the ground and seems to have decent top-game, but the main issue here will be his gas tank. Craig is far more durable and has a lot more heart. Antigulov has never made it out the 1st round in the UFC, and his cardio still looked awful in all of them. We have no idea who will win round 1, but as the fight wears on, it just feels like a matter of time before Craig lands a submission on the exhausted Antigulov, or simply pieces him up on the feet. We will side with the more determined, technical fighter here. Craig opened -105 at most books and we would have gone bigger at that number. There is still value at the current price, as we line this closer to -165 or so. We will just go slightly smaller.
LOSS - Take
Darren Till over Robert Whittaker (11:10p.m., Saturday, July 25th)
In the main event of the evening, we have a middleweight title eliminator matchup between Darren Till (18-2) and former champion Robert Whittaker (20-5). First and foremost, there is no doubt that this will be an awesome fight! Till looked outstanding early in his UFC career, and was really on our radar before losing his title-fight against Tyron Woodley, in a bad way, to then being knocked-out cold in front of his home fans, at the hands of Jorge Masvidal. Till has since moved to Middleweight which we think was a great decision. It is incredible he was able to make 170 lbs. He is huge for that division, and in fact, is a big Middleweight! Regardless of the setbacks, he managed to out-point middleweight contender, Kelvin Gastlum in his debut at 185 lbs. It was a tentative performance, but it was needed for his confidence, after being badly hurt and losing his two previous bouts. It now seems his confidence is back from his interviews and sparring footage we have watched. There is no mistaking the incredible striking ability of Darren Till. He throws accurate, powerful punches with crisp precision. If he does not hurt you, he is able to out-point you, which can be seen by his win against undefeated kick-boxer point fighting expert, Stephen Thompson. Whittaker on the other hand is an aggressive striker that looks to throw looping, but technical bombs at a high rate. He has an unpredictable style, which involves a 'punches in bunches' leap forward approach. That worked out very well for him, and earned him the middleweight championship, but it also leaves him open to taking damage. His last 3 fights have taken some clear years off the career of Whittaker. He was involved in two wars against Yoel Romero, where he was dropped and hurt badly multiple times, and then looked seriously off against now champion, Israel Adesanya who knocked him out cold after dropping him earlier in the fight. Whittaker's chin is starting to seriously deteriorate, and while he has outstanding recovery, that is also starting to fall off. Whittaker is world class, but all the wars, illnesses and injuries look like that have really started to take their toll on Rob. We honestly believe that there are far more ways for till to win this fight. If Whittaker is unable to land the big shot and put till away, or stifle his confidence early, it could get ugly. Till stalks his opponents, is patient from the outside and can snipe a laser at any moment to put Whittaker away. We expect the damage to add up, and till emerge as a clear contender to Adesanya. Till should be a -140-favorite based on our handicapping, and we will take the value on him at plus money.
And the line was a bit wide in hindsight knowing that Dalby is a bit chinny. Oh well... Maybe I'll pull the trigger next time.
I've been working on the UFC a lot more as I think there's more value to be made. Football lines are a lot harder and more efficient from what I've seen. I tend to do more parlays on football lately. 
