Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 47. (Read 12690 times)

Monday Basketball Bonanza 
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

NBA
WIN - Take DENVER NUGGETS -4 Points over Utah Jazz (1:30 p.m., Monday, Aug. 17th)

I think the Jazz have been one of the worst teams that I've seen since the restart. And to make matters worse they'll be playing without Mike Conley for most of this series since he left the bubble to be there for the birth of his child. Utah's offense is kind of a mess and I think they will struggle against a strong Denver defense. The Nuggets are just 1-3 in their last four games. But they are getting healthier and they have discovered a gem now that they are FINALLY using Michael Porter Jr. I like Denver's starting five a lot more than Utah's here.

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WIN - Take BOSTON CELTICS -6 Points over Philadelphia 76ers (6:30 p.m., Monday, August 17th)

The Celtics have one of the most exciting rosters in the NBA and have shown a comraderie during this bubble, unlike some of the teams. They play with a joy and passion for each other and that will show tonight after a handful of meaningless games to end the seeding portion of the bubble. The Sixers are without Ben Simmons. And while they have shown some signs of getting out of their funk a 4-4 finish to the restart is not what they were looking for. This should be a hard-fought game to start but Kemba, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will be too much for Philly so take the C's.

Making up some units here today at a cheap Price with Stud Lester on the hill. Chicago's 2 losses in this series has not been because the Brew Crew beat them with a better team, it is because Chicago made mistakes and handed them those games. Lester's 0.65 WHIP will play hell with a shaky hitting lineup for the Brew Crew and they start Lindblom whose high WHIP will enable the Cubs hitter to get on track and do their thing, and give their ace pitcher Jon Lester the run support early and I see Lester going 6 inning s here. To even the series, at home and make up for 2 games they gave away, YES I will lay this number and drink the kool aid.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

With Arizona having won the first two games of this series, winners of 7 of 10 and San Diego losers of four in a row, the D-Backs should be favored right? Nope, and that is why I'm backing the oddsmaker who has the Padres as the favorite. The biggest reason why the Snakes are underdogs, starter Robbie Ray (1-2, 10.59 ERA). Ray has battled control and location problems en route to 14 walks in 17 innings of work. Besides a horrendous start, Ray and the D-Backs are 4-14 in day games and 2-9 on Sunday's the last few years.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

The Dodgers are a bit vulnerable to left-handed pitching. But nothing about Andrew Heaney really scares me. He is replacement-level and I don't think he'll slow down the Dodgers. Los Angeles has been motivated by the hot starts of the Rockies and Padres. But their win yesterday vaulted them back into first place and I think that they are going to stay focused and win this series. They've won three straight and I think that they will keep it rolling. I have zero problem backing Walker Buehler. He has been steadily getting better this season and I think he's ready to stretch out a bit here. He almost cleared six innings and threw 87 pitches in his last start. The guy has only allowed seven hits in three starts (15 innings). Four of them have been home runs, which is a bit unlucky. But the guy is a stud and I think he'll be solid here. The reality is that the Angels are just not a good team at all. Mike Trout is a hero. But he can't do it alone and there are too many sub-replacement level guys in this lineup. They have won two of seven games and they are just 7-13 on the season. They are a dud. And I think the Dodgers roll them here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

For the featured prelim of the night we have a matchup in the lightweight division between Vinc Pichel (12-2) and Jim Miller (32-14). This is a great contest between two fighters that are similar in their approach and gameplan. Jim Miller is a legend in this sport and made his debut way back at UFC 89 in 2008! He is not the oldest fighter when it comes to age, at 36 - but he has some serious wear-and-tear fight years on him. Vinc Pichel is the older fighter in this bout at 37 years old but is inactive and will be the fresher man. Miller is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Jamie Cruz and utilizes his wrestling to get the fight to the mat where he can use that well versed skillset. The approach from Miller lately has been clear, winning 3 of his last 4 by submission. We should note that Miller's wrestling is not the absolute best and he does struggle at times to get the fight to the ground. On the other side of the Octagon, we have Vinc Pichel who comes into this fight with a wrestling heavy approach himself, securing an average of 3 takedowns per fight. Pichel is an agressive, forward pushing, high pressure mixed martial artist and will be looking to wear on Miller as the fight moves on. One thing which has been clear in recent Jim Miller fights is his inability to maintain his gas tank. If he does not grab an early submission or knockout, he falls off a cliff and barely has much energy to do anything significant and goes into survival mode. We expect Pichel to come out with a high pace and look to put hands on Miller early. He will want to avoid putting himself in bad positions on the mat, but overall, this is a fight that seems grossly mispriced. Miller is getting far too much respect in this spot since his big underdog win against Roosevelt Roberts (one which we bet Miller at +205). For that reason, we must take the value on Pichel at -120. He may not be the better overall mixed martial artist, but he will push a high enough tempo, and do enough damage to make this a clear decision win.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

UFC 252  
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

LOSS - Take JOHN DODSON over Merab Dvalishvili (10:10p.m., Saturday, August 15th)

Next up in the bantamweight division, we have a matchup between John Dodson (21-11) and Merab Dvalishvilii (11-4). The UFC have been using John Dodson as a gatekeeper of sorts for some time now, and Dodson has made it clear publicly how disrespected that has made him feel. He was matched up against up and comer Nathaniel Wood back in February and came out with the KO win. It seems as though John has some of that confidence back which lead to him being one of the elite fighters in the division, and that will be put to the test on Saturday night when he faces off against Merab Dvalishvili who is on a 4-fight winning streak. Merab has good wrestling and looks to outwork and out grind his opponents. He's able to out-grapple and win rounds in most instances with ease, but his most recent performances are playing into the price here. Dodson has outstanding takedown defense including solid cardio. Merab has also not impressed us much on the feet and is very hittable, which could be problematic against a supreme power hitter like Dodson. This is a fight which in all honesty, feels like a coin flip. For that reason, there is tremendous value on Dodson at +205.

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WIN - Take DANIEL PINEDA over Herbert Burns (10:35p.m., Saturday, August 15th)

Kicking off the PPV at UFC 252, we have a featherweight matchup between Daniel Pineda (26-13) and Herbert Burns (11-2). This is a fight, and a situational spot we love to take advantage of. Herbert Burns is the more known fighter. He is the brother of welterweight championship contender Gilbert Burns and has been getting all the public attention since entering the UFC in 2019 which he has responded to by finishing his first 3 opponents. Burns is a high-level black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and showed that off in his recent win where he submitted Evan Dunham. The average bettor will not really know much about Daniel Pineda on the other hand. While we have seen many talks about how it will be Pineda's UFC debut, it should be noted he has quite a bit of UFC experience. He debuted for the organization back in 2012 but had an underwhelming 3-5 record before being released. Like Burns - Pineda is also a high-level black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and has an impressive 18 wins by submission. It would seem as though Burns is the "better black belt" as he has never lost by submission, nor been in any danger in that department. While this may be true, there is simply not enough evidence of this. Pineda is the far more experienced mixed martial artist and we expect this to play out a lot more evenly than the current odds suggest. This fight should play out on the ground and we will learn a lot about both fighters, but there are too many questions surrounding the actual ability of Herbert Burns.

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LOSS - Take JUNIOR DOS SANTOS over Jairzinho Rozenstruik (11:00p.m., Saturday, August 15th)

Next up we have a matchup in the heavyweight division between Junior Dos Santos (21-7) and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (10-1). Intriguing and exciting fight! Both fighters will be pushing extra hard for a win here as Dos Santos has lost his last two and is looking to avoid a three fight skid for the first time in his career, while Jairzinho will want to come back strong after being knocked out by Francis Ngannou and prove that he is still a contender for the belt. Rozenstruik is a very high-level kickboxer with a professional record of 76-8, with 64 of those wins coming by KO! However, we must remember this is MMA, and not kickboxing. When it comes to MMA there is little debating who is the more well-rounded fighter - and that is Junior Dos Santos. JDS should be able to use his speed, movement, and solid boxing ability to pepper Jairzinho from the outside. In our opinion, this really comes down to if Dos Santos can avoid the knockout blow which will be hauled his way. If he can, he should be able to out-volume and out-work Rozenstruik. We cannot pass up this much value on the more proven, talented mixed martial artist that has more ways to win. There is no doubt he's a little "over the hill" and potentially on a steep decline, but value is value.

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WIN - Take MARLON VERA over Sean O'Malley ((11:25p.m., Saturday, August 15th)

In the co-main event of the evening we have a bantamweight matchup between Marlon Vera (17-6) and up and coming undefeated sensation, Sean O'Malley (12-0). The UFC is putting a ton of promotional and marketing dollars into Sean O'Malley. They are pushing for this kid to be a star, and he has looked very impressive in the UFC thus far which is helping build a huge fanbase. There is no doubt that O'Malley has tremendous potential. He is loaded with talent and has the charisma to match. He has unorthodox striking, throws combinations at lightning speed, and always remains confident and loose. He creates angles and finds holes in his opponents' games which shows technical ability far beyond his years. The only question mark around Sean O'Malley is his resume and the level of competition he has faced. The UFC has set him up to look good, and it has worked out so far, but eventually when you keep winning, you will come across a legitimate contender who will test your true ability. This is where Marlon Vera comes in. Vera is a high skilled fighter that is flying under the radar. He has a long frame and has been on an absolute tear as of late. Although his record indicates he lost his last fight to Song Yadong, most would agree (including us) that he won that fight and lost a poor judging decision. If not for that loss, Vera would be on a six-fight winning streak right now. The consensus is that we will see yet another impeccable performance from Sean O'Malley as he moves up in the rankings. Well - not so fast. Vera may not be as impressive in the striking department as O'Malley, but he does have an incredible gas tank with a serious "dog fight" bully attitude, and this is how he will need to approach this fight. Vera can bully O'Malley and if he can get inside and not get caught watching like many others have, he could find himself wearing on Sean and securing takedowns as the fight progresses. That is an unproven area in O'Malleys game, and even if Vera is unable to get this to the ground, it should allow him time on the feat considering the threat is always there. We still do not know how good O'Malley really is. He could be the next big thing! But then again, he may not. Vera will absolutely be the one to fight through fire and test him for the whole three rounds. This line is too wide, and we expect Vera to at least show well here and make this an awfully close fight. The only reason we see this price is due to the huge popularity of Sean O'Malley. In all honesty, the recreational bettor and everyday fan would probably lay any price on O'Malley here. For this reason, we are getting tremendous value in a proven winner, who has fought at the higher level, for longer.

Should be a very tight pitch as the home team Puebla hosts Pachuca. Puebla is coming off a loss to Tigres 2-1 and they have only played 1 home game this young season and they drew 1-1 to Cruz Azul. Pachuca lost at home to Leon 1-0 and their last 3 games all 3 of them have gone 'Under' the total. Home pitch will hold tonight and I see Puebla winning 2-0 and this pitch stays 'Under'.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I know the Atlanta Dream defense is horrendous giving up an average of 92.6 ppg in their last 3 bubble games but tonight I see the Mercury defense being the reason why we cash this ticket. The last 4 meetings between these two teams all 4 of them have gone 'Under' the total and the Dream's last 25 meetings between Western Conference opponents 17 of them have gone 'Under'. The Phoenix Mercury are 2-5 O/U as a favorite and the Mercury size will be the reason why this total stays 'Under'.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I will go with the home underdog in this one. Colorado has been one of the top teams in the Majors this year at 12-6. Texas is below .500 and they have not been good on the road at all going just 1-5. The Rockies are No. 2 in the league in scoring at just under six runs per game and they are No. 1 in batting average hitting .284 as a team. The Rangers are just 4-10 in their last 14 interleague games and they are just 17-35 in their last 52 series openers. The Rockies are 6-2 as a home underdog and 5-1 in their last six games as an underdog overall. The Rockies are 9-4 at home and 9-4 in their last 13 series openers. I will take Colorado here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I'm going to back the powerhouse team from Germany. All summer Munich has been the best team in Europe. There have been other teams that have had their moments or gotten hot and gone on big runs. There have been other teams that concluded record-breaking seasons in the national leagues. But Bayner Munich has consistently been the best team from the best league and I think that they are going to continue to get the job done here en route to the Champions League semifinals. They absolutely hamered a solid Chelsea team 4-1 their last time out and outlasted a talented Marseille side prior to that. This team hasn't lost a match in Bundesliga or the Champions League since Dec. 7 of last year. That's it. They've gone 27-0 with one draw since then. Think about that. They've been the best team in the best league in Europe for the entirety of 2020. They are also fresh. Their league ended on July 4. They've played two matches since then to knock the rust off, but they have been able to get their legs under them.

There is no way to trash Barcelona. They have Messi. And that alone is enough. They are one of the best teams in the world because of their attacking ability. However, there are holes on this team. And they haven't been that great since the restart, taking three draws against inferior teams and then a loss to Osasuna in La Liga. Barcelona is still under the cloud of their epic collapse in La Liga, finishing second to rival Real Madrid. I don't think they are over that. Even when this team was top table they were leaking oil. And I just don't think they are going to be able to hold it together and stay disciplined for the entirety of this game.

Bayern is the better team from the better league and they have been playing better this year. I think they are going to win this entire tournament and that means a win here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I've been using Sportsbet.io for the last couple of years and didn't have any problems betting with them. You can actually just click the links in my signature and you'll be transferred to their site to register.

Have fun with my leans and best of luck to both of us. 

Your winnings is not that high compare to your losses but I see that you still profit in the end if we are going to check the ratio. May I know what
platform you are using in placing your bets because I would like to try my luck in following your bets.

Maybe good for one week and if I can see that I am earning a profit then I will continue to follow your lead in the following week and so on.

Nice way expounding the preferred team to bet. I agree with your bet especially to the part where Lotte has been winning 7x straight this season.

However, Kiwoom heroes in other publish sites had the lower odds agains lotte giants. According to https://www.sofascore.com/amp/kiwoom-heroes-lotte-giants/WoAbsipAb the odds of lotte giants is 2.05 odds higher than Kiwwom Heroes with a 46 chance to win in these odds while Kiwoom heroes were lower odds of 1.74 not likely that low with 57% chance to win with these odds.

Well see it later when the play will going to start. This is a good match to watch. I am fan of Lotte giants but my bet will goes to Kiwoom Heroes.

The Heroes are the second-best team in the KBO and are inching closer to the Dinos. They are just using a spot starter tonight and I do not see that going well for them on the road against Lotte. Yang Hyun has not started a game this season for Kiwoom despite appearing in 33 games. Park Se-woong is going for the home team and he will give you some innings (around 6) and allow just a couple of runs. He has won three straight decisions and has not lost a game since July 5th. Lotte has a winning record against Kiwoom this season and they will enter have won 7 of their last 10 games (1 push).

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

As per our selection on Calgary, we have no issues going back to Calgary for Game 2 as they were the better team for extended stretches of their Game 1 win vs Dallas. We simply love their match-ups with the Stars and we believe they have the better goal tending and offense as well. This game is going to be another tight-checking affair and we'll take Calgary's ability to score on the power play and kill off penalties over Dallas' extremely inconsistent offense.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Sometimes you have to go against the grain in NBA handicapping. And that is what we are doing here tonight. Portland is the ultimate public play here. They are locked in a big fight for the playoffs and they have been getting lots of positive press for Damian Lillard's otherworldly performances on the court. However, the bookies know that zero public bettors will be taking a chance on Brooklyn here. They have inflated this line quite a bit as a result. First off, depending on the earlier games, the Blazers might not even need this game. They could know their fate by tip off already, and that wouldn't give them much incentive to play key players, especially with the injury woes this team has faced this season. Brooklyn has shown they are no pushover. They have gone 5-2 in the Bubble when most thought they wouldn't win a game. They beat the Clippers and Bucks. This team has seemed to relish in the role of spoiler, and they have no motivation to relax here in this game as they need to keep the momentum going into the postseason. We think they will keep things close if Portland plays at full strength, and they have a chance to win if Portland rests main players

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I really like Minnesota in this game. To be honest I see them winning this game outright. The Lynx are a tough team that can defend the basketball well enough to slow down the Las Vegas offense. The Aces come into this game on a five-game winning streak but the line is dropping...That says a lot about how tough this Lynx team really is. Minnesota has won five of their last six games overall, and they have also gone 5-1 ATS in those six games. The Lynx are going to lean on Sylvia Fowles tonight on both ends of the floor. Her defensive presence is going to be the key to the Lynx victory in this matchup. Take the underdog in this one, even though I don't see the points making a difference.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Both teams will be missing some key players. We really like the Clippers to bounce back here, however, after their loss last time out to Brooklyn, one of the worst rosters that was brought into the bubble during this NBA restart. This was the third loss during the restart for the Clips, and both times they rebounded for double-digit wins against their next opponent. We expect them to be motivated tonight. The Denver defense has given up 124 or more in their last four games (one OT contest). We just think a motivated Clippers club will be able to achieve their offensive goals here tonight in the bubble. The Clippers won by nearly 30 when these teams last met up. And we think they match up extremely well here tonight.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

There has been a major shift on this line and that suggests OKC will rest some starters. Miami rested their guys over the weekend so they should be good to go. And I think that they want to build some momentum for the postseason. The Thunder are still trying to hold off the Jazz and keep that No. 5 slot - or are they? There's an off chance the Thunder want to tank these last two games and maybe drop to the No. 6 seed, playing the banged up Nuggets rather than the Rockets. Miami hasn't played well in the bubble yet. But they are getting healthy and I think that their up-and-down effort (against a really tough schedule) means they will be more focused on finding their form. They should find it today.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

The Raptors are 5-1 in the NBA bubble and they have looked the part of a defending champion the entire time. They have leaned in their supporting cast the last couple games and will sometimes rest their starters, but this team has no stop in them. It does not matter who is on the floor and who they have in front of them they come to play like it's a life or death game. Toronto only has two games left to get ready for their playoff matchup with the Nets so look for this one to be all hands-on deck and end with another Canadian win.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.