Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 49. (Read 12658 times)

Friday Basketball Bonanza 
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

NBA
LOSS - Take OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER -4.5 POINTS over Memphis Grizzlies (4 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7th)

The Thunder are 2-1 in the bubble with victories over the Lakers and Jazz, so they appear to have come into the restart with extra focus. The makeup of this team is perfect for this sprint to the finish and with Chris Paul playing with the CP3 chip on his shoulder they can go at anyone in a playoff series. Memphis has not fared so well thus far and have been struggling to find any consistency, so this looks like a great spot for another OKC win.

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LOSS - Take TORONTO RAPTORS -2 POINTS over Boston Celtics (9 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7th)

Boston shot 149 points in its last game. They shot 57 percent from the field and 51 percent (20-for-39) from 3-point range. Guess what they are not going to do here? Score that many points. Or shoot that well. Toronto has allowed 99, 103 and 92 in their three games in the restart. I think Boston can crack 100. But I don't see a shootout here. Toronto has been wrecking people and I have been much more impressed by their effort in the restart than I have been in Boston's. The Celtics are the sexier pick. But all the Raptors do is win and I think they will again here.

You got even today with your NBA picks mate.

Looking forward if you'll give free picks for the NBA games, we have 6 games tomorrow, so there's a lot to cap if you will consider betting in all games.
I hope you'll include Memphis vs OKC game. Memphis badly need a win here, but I can't decide yet since they haven't won a single game since the start of the bubble.

The Tigres are coming off a draw against a bad Pachuca side. However, I think they will rebound and pound on a terrible Tijuana team. Tijuana actually scored a 3-1 win to start their season. But they came back to earth in a 4-0 loss to Club America their second time out. I don't think it will be quite that ugly in this one but there is absolutely no doubt that UANL is the better team. They have won four of the last five meetings in this series and I like a 1-0 or a 2-0 win for UANL here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Thursday Basketball Bonanza  
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

NBA
LOSS - Take NEW ORLEANS PELICANS -4 POINTS over Sacramento Kings (1:30 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 6th)

New Orleans needs something good to happen. They have played too well since the restart to only have one win. I think they can build off that win over the Grizzlies and beat a Kings team that is all over the map. New Orleans has had two days to rest, so they should be fresh. The Kings have lost all three of their games and are coming off a heartbreaker against the Mavs. I just don't know what this team is playing for. I think the Pelicans are the better team and they should prove it here.

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WIN - Take MILWAUKEE BUCKS -9 POINTS over Miami Heat (4 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 6th)

The public is all over Miami. And why not? This teams like a ton of points to lay out to a Miami team that manhandled Boston its last time out without Jimmy Butler and a team that has looked great since the restart. However, the Bucks are coming off a stunning loss as a 17-point favorite. I think they are going to be motivated for a rebound here. These guys need just one more win to lock down the No. 1 seed and I think they will be focused. Nearly 80 percent of the public is on Miami - but the line is going the other way. I think the Bucks show why they are a powerhouse and get that win to lock up the No. 1 slot here.

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LOSS - Take INDIANA PACERS -2 POINTS over Phoenix Suns (4 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 6th)

Indiana is just so damn scrappy. Nate McMillan is one of the best coaches in the NBA and he has had his team ready to go. They have easily won all three of their games and now I think they will take out a young Phoenix team. The Suns have also won all three of their games, albeit less convincingly. And I think that they are in a bit of a letdown spot here after a huge upset win over the Clippers.

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WIN - Take PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS -4 POINTS over Denver Nuggets (8 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 6th)

This one is all about motivation. Yes, the Nuggets could play their way into the No. 2 slot. But that really doesn't do a ton for them. Denver is beat up and they are playing on a second straight day and their third game in four nights. They have two nice wins in those two games and I think they are going to hit a bit of a wall here. This team is undermanned right now without three key guards. Portland is playing for a spot in the playoffs. Period. They want to get to the No. 8 slot because that makes a huge difference for them. They have played a difficult schedule and have played well since the restart. And I think that their backcourt is going to have a much better shooting night tonight while leading them to a win. I can see Denver even choosing to rest some players in this one. But either way the difference in motivation between these two teams is stark. This one just means a ton more to Portland.

Bayer Leverkusen enter the second leg of this tie with a 3-1 road win over Rangers back in March. They entered the Europa League after finishing in third place in their Champions League group behind Juventus and Atletico Madrid. Leverkusen's final competitive match was on July 4 in a 4-2 loss to Bayern Munich, losing two of their last three matches. They finished in fifth place in the Bundesliga, two points behind Borussia M'Gladbach who qualified for the Champions League. We do not see Leverkusen being match sharp after a month layoff and coming into a match that they are three away goals ahead. For Rangers, they ended their season with the 3-1 loss to Leverkusen as the Scottish Premier League canceled the remainder of their season. They have played four friendless, winning all four on their way to outscoring their opponents 10-0. They opened the 2020/2021 Scottish Premier League season with a 1-0 away win over Aberdeen. That is five wins in a row since losing to Leverkusen. Rangers are on the upswing as Leverkusen have been losing match sharpness.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

As per our selection on Boston, we like them to bounce back here against a Tampa team that is going to be without their captain again in Steven Stamkos. Boston suffered a 4-1 loss to the Flyers in the opening round-robin game, but have had an extra day to rest and prepare for a Tampa team that they've struggled with over the last little while. That changes tonight as the Bruins know a loss will likely slide them down to the fourth seed and give them a much tougher matchup in the next round of the playoffs - likely the Pittsburgh Penguins. As for Tampa, they coasted through a 2-1 shootout win and were lucky to get the win as they were severely outplayed. This is a great number on a healthy Boston squad and we are all over it today.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Wednesday Basketball Bonanza  
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

NBA
WIN - Take OVER 219.5 between Utah Jazz and Memphis Grizzlies (2:30 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 5th)

Look, at some point Utah is going to make some shots. They have shot the ball pathetically over their last two games. They have faced two tough defensive teams, though, and at some point they are due for a bit of a breakout. Memphis is coming off an equally awful shooting game against New Orleans in a game that went way, way 'under' the total. I think that they are going to rebound after a couple terrible shooting games as well.

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WIN - Take PHILADELPHIA 76ERS -8.5 POINTS over Washington Wizards (4 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 5th)

Washington has lost all three of its games in the bubble. And, frankly, none of them have been close. They've lost by 13, 8 and 11, but they were behind by around 20 points in all three games. Philadelphia is a prime suspect to get up 25 points and then win this one by just 6. But after a couple of frustrating games I could see the Sixers taking that frustration out on the helpless Wizards and their G-League roster. Washington is 29th in defense this year and they absolutely aren't going to be able to stop the Sixers. I can see Philadelphia pumping in around 130 points in this game. And as long as the Wizards don't throw up on themselves and they get to 100 this one should easily go 'over'. I'll call this one 128-112 and we should hit both sides here.

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WIN - Take OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDERS +6.5 POINTS over Los Angeles Lakers (6:30 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 5th)

The Lakers just clinched the No. 1 seed in the West with their win over Utah. And just like they had a letdown after their win over the Clippers to begin the restart I can see them letting down in this one against a tricky Thunder team. In fact, I wouldn't be stunned to see the Lakers rest either LeBron or Anthony Davis in this one. And I don't expect either player to log a ton of minutes. Maybe they will. But even so, what is their motivation level? We saw it yesterday with the Bucks: it is tough for the teams that are clearly the No. 1 seeds in their conferences to stay focused and play with 100 percent effort against lesser teams. Oklahoma City is good. They have great chemistry and really play well together. I also think that they are a deeper team than the Lakers and I think that they are going to be more motivated coming into this one. Oklahoma City wants to lock up at least the No. 6 seed and avoid the Clippers in Round 1. They also want to build momentum going into the playoffs and I think that they are going to be focused to rebound from a tough OT loss to Denver their last time out. Throw all of this together and I have a hard time seeing a blowout in this game. I'll take the points.

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WIN - Take TORONTO RAPTORS -7.5 POINTS over Orlando Magic (8 p.m., Wednesday, August 5th)

The Raptors are 2-0 in the restart and in both wins they have looked like the defending NBA champions. When Kawhi Leonard left for LA in the offseason Toronto was left for dead but they seemingly disagree with the level of play they have put out there each night. They will be a force when the playoffs start and will take zero for granted moving forward. The Magic are 2-1 but have not looked good against tougher opponents all season (even before the restart). They got handled by Indiana last time out and do not appear to be ready to make the leap yet. Take the champs to get the win and cover.

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WIN - Take BOSTON CELTICS -8.5 POINTS over Brooklyn Nets (9 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 5)

Brooklyn pulled off a wild upset yesterday, beating the Bucks as 17-point underdogs. And they did it without their three best players. I think that sets them up for a letdown here though. Yesterday they were jacking 3's and playing with house money against a team with waning interest in the game. Now they are facing a Boston team that is coming off a frustrating loss of their own yesterday against Miami. The public is all over Brooklyn in this game. But I'm going to go the other way. Boston is on a 0-7 ATS slide and they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games. Yet this number is still this high? That's a bit of a red flag. The Celtics also have a little revenge factor. They lost 129-120 at home in the last meeting, just prior to the hiatus. But Brooklyn was down 17 points going into the fourth quarter and really fluked that one out. I have a feeling Boston comes to play today and gets a surprising blowout.

Per this selection, the Nats are heating up with 13 hits yesterday and have now posted back to back wins now. These guys are the defending champs for a reason and you can expect them not to be hovering around .500 as they will bust through and it is likely here. They had a good series against Toronto, especially the last two games and note the Mets are coming off a big 7-2 win over the Braves but they had lost their 3 previous games to the Braves so this is a classic let down spot for them. Matz has already given up 3 HR in 11.1 innings and gave up 8 hits to Boston Redsox who are frankly not as sharp this year in my book so that is not a good look and Matz has also given up 10 baserunners over his last 5 innings as well. Corbin held the Yankees to 2 Hits and lost 2-3 which is phenomenal and note that 5 batters have over a .300 career avg against Matz as well as the fact the Nationals releivers this year have a 1.50era vs. a 6.60 era for Mets and also, Juan Soto returns back to the lineup from a Covid absence as well as it makes sense for us to take Nationals here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Per this game, we roll with the Over here and though the total is high, in fact, this is the highest total there has ever been for these two teams over the last 10 contests, we still like the Over here. Note, that Phoenix has picked up a gem here in Hartley who scored 27 points in her last game going 10/18 from the field. With Diggins only scoring 10 points in her last game and 2/8 from the field, Phoenix has picked up a huge scoring foursome here with Griner, Tarausi, Diggins and Hartley. This team shot 5/19 from 3 point land and still scored 96 points in their last game and scored 102 against Vegas and 100 against Indiana (a good defense). Atlanta comes off another loss at Indiana as they scored 77 points but turned the ball oer quite a bit and what is interesting here is that Atlanta probably loses this game by double-digits but one would have to think for a team that shoots pretty well, if they just hold on to the ball a bit more, they should score more than 80 points today as Phoenix is one of the worst in the league defensively. In the same token, Phoenix should drop around 100 points or more today as Atlanta is likely to be an active underdog as well which should help this game go over today.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

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It's kind of now or never for Toronto. They have been the most overrated and overhyped hockey team in the NHL over the past two years. That doesn't mean they don't have talent; it just means that they have been grossly overestimated by bettors and the markets. So why jump on them for a big play here? Because at some point things are going to click. And with the sheer level of desperation that they have right now I think today is as good of a time as any. This play reminds me a bit of yesterday's play on Edmonton. And yes, I'm pissed that I didn't go bigger on that one. Toronto does have an advantage of playing close to home here. It's their home ice, for crying out loud. I just can't see them losing their first two games of the restart on their home ice against a team that they are clearly better than. Columbus is a grinder team, trying to clog this game up and slow it down. But they can only really generate offense off the counterattack. And if Toronto can strike first and get the early momentum then Columbus will be forced to come out of its shell and open this game. That will play into Toronto's hands. This is only a five-game series. If Toronto falls behind 2-0 they are done. These two teams are 4-4 against one another dating back to 2018. But two of Columbus' wins were in OT in games in which they were outplayed. And Toronto's four wins were all by multiple goals. So either Columbus wins a grinder or, if Toronto can force the tempo, the Leafs dominate. The first game of this series saw the Jackets pull off the former. I'm betting that today's game is more like the latter. Expect a full-out effort from the Leafs and a two-goal win to get back into this series.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

We are getting used to these slow starts from Utah. They are winless in the restart thus far and haven't played to near their potential. But we think they will be ultra motivated to get that win tonight. Their place in the postseason is secure, but they need some momentum heading into the postseason, and a win here would erase the two losses that proceeded it on a mental level. The Lakers are all but guaranteed the No. 1 seed and this finish to the regular season is meant only as practice time for the playoffs. We just don't see them being that motivated for wins now, while Utah really needs this game more. And the Lakers are always a public team that gets shaded odds from the bookies, and that is even more so with the restart as bettors have been starved for action and are very active (the Lakers/Clippers game on opening night of restart was by far the biggest bet NBA game of the season). We expect a close game here and will gladly take the points on this inflated number.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I like the value here as I think that the White Sox are actually the better team. They also have the benefit of having been able to play over the weekend. It has been a really weird few days for the Brewers. They had their weekend series cancelled because of the corona virus. They had one of their best players, Lorenzo Cain, opt out of the season. And then their bench coach had a heart attack. Who knows where this team's head is at. The White Sox, on the other hand, are coming off a weekend sweep and they have won four straight. Carlos Rodon is taking the ball for the White Sox. This is one of the bigger starts of his career. He barely won the No. 5 starter slot and then got filleted by Cleveland in his opener. After an injury-plagued 2019 Rodon needs this one so I expect him to be completely focused. Brett Anderson is going for Milwaukee, but this is his first start of the season. In the past he has either been really, really good or really, really bad. I think he is going to struggle a bit to find his feel. And this whole Brewers team just has too much negative karma around it to expect them to perform as the favorite here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

The Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS in the second leg of a back to back this season, so we aren't worried about them playing on Sunday. Plus, there is no travel involved, so B2B's aren't that big of a deal, especially with fresh players at the restart. Both teams are winless in the restart, but Memphis has been a lot more competitive as they lost two close games, while New Orleans was blown out last time out in a 23-point loss to the Clippers where that final score was very flattering against the effort given. We just think this is a coin flip game and getting the points here is too good to pass up.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

We roll with the Over here between these two teams in what seems like a high total but I think there is a good chance that it exceeds it. As per this selection, the Rockets have a great chance at being an active underdog facing the likely team out of the Eastern Conference to the NBA Finals (maybe except for Toronto). This is a great spot for Houston to be that active dog as they fell short last time time to this team by 7 points but at the same token, Milwaukee's offense looked sharp last game as well as they put up 119 points on a good Boston defense. Against a leaky Houston defense, it's quite possible they can put up a bit more. Let's take the Over here as Milwaukee's offense is clicking and Houston also has a decent shot at being an Outright Dog as this game is likely to go Over.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I can't see a full three-game series between these two teams without at least one softball game breaking out. Tonight seems like as good of a time as any. James Paxton was awful in his first start. He is obviously going to be better tonight. But I don't expect him to have his A-level stuff and I don't think that he's going to go deep enough into this game to keep this total down. Boston is going with an opener, Austin Brice. They will use a bunch of different guys tonight and their bullpen has nothing better than mediocre so far this season. The Yankees lineup has not reached its full potential yet. But it is only a matter of time before guys find their form and start putting up some numbers. Tonight seems like as good of a time as any. The wind is going to be blowing out tonight, and a warm night should help the ball carry. I see a bit of a slow start, but the second and third time through the order the fireworks should begin and I see this one getting 'over'.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

How can we not take Gio Gonzalez here as he comes off a tough loss in his last game. He is vastly underrated coming over from the Nationals and I have always had a great deal of admiration for his consistent way of pitching. Per this selection, Gio gave up 7 hits and 6 runs in less than 4 innings in his last game. Look for Gio to get back on track here and the Whitesox only had 3 runs last game as well so they will bust out here for a much better effort and what you should see here is a solid win here for Chicago. Bolanos has talent but this spot might be too big for him here considering that Gio is on the bounce-back and this sets up nicely for a solid win for Chicago.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Oh, hey, yeah, I can do that. I'll try to post them way before the match so that other people will also have the chance to check on it before putting their bets. I just didn't have the time to put them way early this weekend because of real-life events. 

Nice pick with Brunson.  And Durden!  Even though it was a draw.  He's def somebody to watch out for.

And can you post them a couple of days before the event next time?    It would be good to have some time to get to talk about it.

We have a matchup between Randy Brown (12-3) and Vicente Luque (18-7). This is an interesting fight. Luque has been incredibly fun to watch in his last few fights. He has 10 wins by knockout and 6 by submission and looks to finish each one of his opponents. Luque has tremendous hands, and packs some serious power, however he is all too willing to engage in wars and has taken some serious damage for only 28 years of age. He relentlessly pushes forward and tries to drag his opponents through muddy waters, but you must wonder how long this can be an effective strategy for him. Randy Brown on the other hand, is a long, rangy martial artist, who will stick and move while landing an extremely hard jab. Brown has 6 wins by way of knockout with some good names on his resume such as Belal Muhammed, Niko Price, Bryan Barberena and Warlley Alves. Brown does have some concerning losses, but he came to the UFC quite green, but has shown real improvement leaps from fight to fight. We believe Brown will be able to keep Luque on the outside, utilize his reach and space well, and outpoint him. Luque will be looking for desperation shots and Brown will have to remain alert at all-times, especially as the fight wears on. This is a close contest, and one where we believe Brown will be the clear minute-by-minute winner. He needs to avoid the nuke from Vicente and stick to the game plan where he will have great success. This price is completely out-of-whack due to the public perception on Luque.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.