Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 46. (Read 12690 times)

The Dinos have been poor of late but they do have the right person on the mound tonight in Drew Rucinski. He bounced back nicely last time out throwing 6 innings and giving up just one earned run. He is 2-0 against KT on the season and 12-2 overall. NC has won 8 of 12 against KT and they just always seem to have a knack of not getting swept and bouncing back after bad games the night before.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Vancouver has posted a perfect 4-0 record to the over in their last four games following a game where they allowed two goals or less and they have that same perfect 4-0 record in their last four games where they faced a team from the Pacific Division. They have also gone up and over the number in six of their last eight where they faced a team with a winning record and they are 5-2 to the over in their last seven playoff games where they were listed as an underdog. The Golden Knights have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here tonight as they have gone 4-1 to the over in their last five where they faced a team with a winning record and they are an impressive 6-0 to the over in their last six games where they were playing with three or more days of rest. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone over the number in four of their last five head to head meetings and that's where we'll have our play in a game that our numbers have as a high scoring affair in Edmonton on Sunday night.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Both teams have been trending to the over. Ten of the last 11 games for Denver have gone over the posted total. Seven of the last nine games for Utah have gone over. Utah's offense really played well last time out as they scored 124 in a blowout win. We expect the momentum from that offensive explosion to carry over into this one tonight. This is a crucial game for the Nuggets, and we expect them to be much more competitive, and we don't see the Utah defense shutting them down twice in a row. They scored 124 in Game 2, just as Utah did in Game 3, and we think both teams will get their points here in this one tonight. One game already went to OT in this series, and this one looks to be close as well, so OT is always a possibility, which is great for over bettors like us. But we don't think they will need the extra five minutes here as we think this one will get over 220 at the end of regulation.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I understand that the Raptors have an extremely tough defense; ranked No. 1 in the NBA. However, I don't think that they are going to hold Brooklyn below 100 points for a third game in a row. And the Nets' 30-for-90 (33.3 percent) shooting day in Game 3 was less about the Raptors defense and more just about the Nets sucking. Their season is on the line here and I expect this scrappy-as-hell Brooklyn team to at least put up a fight. Prior to their two-game slump the Nets had been averaging around 119 points per game in their previous eight, putting up some big totals against good defensive teams like Toronto (110), the Clippers (129), Boston (115) and Milwaukee (119). Also, the Raptors don't get enough credit for their offense. They've scored at least 114 points in five of their last six games and have been averaging around 119 points during that stretch. Also, if you go back to New Year's Day, after holding an opponent below 100 points the Raptors have surrendered 102, 112, 102, 108, 133, 103, 122, 106 and 92 points. Notice a trend? Only once - last game - did the Raptors follow up a game allowing below 100 points with another game below 100 points. Kick out Game 3 and they averaged giving up around 110 points per game following a game holding a team to 99 or fewer. Over that same time frame the Nets have only been held below 100 points four times and followed that up by scoring 103, 111, 125 and 139 points. They bounce back. That's what they do. And that 139 explosion? That came after a game in which they scored just 79 points while shooting - you guessed it - 30-for-90. Any team that takes 50 3-pointers per game is going to be streaky. I have this game somewhere around 117-108 so I'll take the OVER and call it a day.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

The Clippers stumbled in Game 1 and have been tested by the Mavs in each of the first three games, but they are starting to find their groove and that is going to mean an early bubble exit for Dallas. LA is up 2-1 and they have won the last two games in impressive fashion while not exactly playing their best. Leonard broke out in the last game and that is trouble for the West so look for him to play his best game in this one and make it 3-1 Clippers.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

In the women's strawweight division we have a matchup between Amanda Lemos (7-1) and Mizuki Inoue (14-5). This is an interesting fight between two unknown female competitors for the featured prelim of the night. Amanda Lemos is a high IQ fighter which is careful in her approach but does have predictable movements. She will ramp up the volume, throw punches in bunches, and go back to her measured approach. She is well rounded and is happy to work from her guard and has finished all her wins by either knockout or submission. She is not one to leave it in the hands of the judges (which is rare for strawweight women's MMA). Inoue on the other hand has much higher-level experience than Lemos. She has been in there with names such as Alexa Grasso, Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Bec Rawlings, albeit losing to both Grasso and Karolina - but there is no shame in that, especially considering how raw she was at the time. We mentioned how Lemos is happy to fight from guard, but Inoue is the better grappler here. She has 9 wins by submission and that is her main gameplan in most of her bouts. This fight will end up on the ground, we have no doubts about it and each will have their moments, but when it's all said and done, this current betting line on a more high level, experience martial artist with better grappling in a fight that will almost definitely end up on the ground is bordering on absurd. Even if this fight does not make it to the ground, Inoue will be more likely to win minutes due to sheer volume and technique (assuming she does not get tagged). This opened at -200 and has been trickling down all week. The opener seemed accurate in our professional opinion so the -130 presents enormous value, and we plan to capitalize.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Saturday Baseball and MMA Bonanza 
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

MLB
PUSH - Take WASHINGTON NATIONALS -1.0 RUN over Miami Marlins (4 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 22nd)

This game is going to be a bloodbath. Miami has come back to earth. Hard. They finally remembered that they suck and I think they are going to get hammered here. Miami won the first game of this series. But I don't see the Nationals giving away the weekend so easily. Not behind their ace. Washington has alternated wins and losses in each of their last seven games. I'm not following that weak trend; that just speaks to how inconsistent they have been. When they are good - like a 15-3 win over the Orioles or a 16-4 win over the Mets - they are really good. When they are not, they, well, aren't. But this is a veteran team and they have to be feeling the pinch a little bit after their slow start. The Nationals are also the No. 1 team in the Majors against left-handed pitching, hitting a whopping .312 against southpaws. The Marlins are trotting out Dan Castano, a rookie lefty that shouldn't be at this level. He had an ERA of nearly 4.00 last year in A+ ball. He's never pitched higher than Triple-A prior to this year. He had his MLB debut and got rocked. And then had the predictable bounce back. Good for him. But now this 19th round pick is - like his team - going to come back to reality. Washington absolutely has to have this game. They have their best pitcher on the mound - who, by the way, is in a bounce back spot after allowing five runs and three homers against Baltimore in his last start - and they are facing a Double-A caliber left-handed arm. This is set up for a blowout. I'll call it 7-2 for the good guys.

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WIN - Take SEATTLE MARINERS ML over Texas Rangers (9 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 22nd)

Jordan Lyles is pitching. That's the only reason you need.

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UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs Edgar
CANCELLED - Take UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS between Alonzo Menifield and Ovince Saint Preux (9:55p.m., Saturday, August 22nd)

For the co-main event of the evening we have a light-heavyweight matchup between Ovince Saint Preux (24-14) and Alonzo Menifield (9-1). This is a great fight which should be very entertaining. Alonzo Menifield has absolute game-changing power. He throws extremely hard and heavy and comes out guns blazing looking for the knockout. However, in his last fight against Devin Clark he showed clear holes in his cardio, grappling and overall cage IQ. He is coming off his first loss as a pro, and he will want to get back some of the hype he had previously - he will have that chance when he faces UFC veteran, OSP. Ovince is an odd fighter, as you really cannot rely on the effort or performance you expect to see. He fights long, has dangerous power (when he lets his hands go) and has the ability to wrestle and finish you with his crafty submissions, especially the 'Von Flue' which has been recreational renamed to the 'Von Preux' - and rightfully so considering he has 4 of the 6 Von Flue finished ever recorded in the UFC. The issue with Saint Preux is in his moments where he stops moving and stands flat footed straight in front of his opponent. His conditioning and chin seem to be tailing off and this is a total set up fight for Menifield to look impressive. We believe Menifield will land a big shot on OSP early, unload and put him away - however, if he is unable to, then as we saw in his last fight he can fall off a cliff, at which point we would expect to see him on his back, scrambling for lazy exits where OSP will be waiting for a submission finish. This could be a dumpster fire that lasts all 3 rounds as both men tire, and it could end early in devastating fashion. We believe the latter is a far more likely option and at plus money, we must take a stab.

I like Dustin Johnson in the last group on Saturday after his 60 was not the lowest round of the day as Scottie Scheffler fired a 12 under 59. Johnson still holds a two stroke lead after an opening day four under 67, his two Eagles and five birdies were some of the greatest nine holes you will ever see. Johnson has a win in each of his seven years as a pro and is coming off a t2 at the PGA Championship. He has four Top Tens including a win at the Travelers. Johnson fired a 65 two weeks ago at the PGA Championship in the third round for his six third round in the 60s. This season he is averaging 67.25 in the third round, third best on Tour. A former Winner of this event in 2017, Johnson shot 67 in the third round that year. For Scheffler, firing a 59 is historic, but also a down fall. Currently at 12 under par, he sits two strokes back of Johnson after a Thursday 70. The third year pro is in for next week's Playoff, and if he maintains will be playing in Atlanta in two weeks. He has five Top Tens including two third place finishes. Since missing three straight Cuts, Scheffler has finished better each week, but he is ranked 50th in round three scoring at 69.33. There is a ton of pressure playing in the final group and coming off a 59. We expect there to be too much pressure on this young golfer as he fades on moving day.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Arizona's Robbie Ray takes to the hill for the Diamondbacks in this one. Ray is an extremely talented left-handed starter who's carved out solid career thus far. He has struggled early on this season and because of that we are getting extreme value with him at this price in this particular matchup. No starting pitcher has probably been a worse fit overall for his home ball park than Ray being a fly ball pitcher having to pitch about half his games at Chase Field and that's been clearly evident by his career home ERA being more than 1 full run higher at home than it's been on the road. He's had to deal with the same type of bad matchups early on this year as well with 3 of his first 5 starts coming at home in Arizona and a fourth at the most hitter friendly stadium in MLB in Coors Field. The exact opposite will be the case here in this one though with this game tonight being played in San Francisco's Oracle Park which is considered to easily be the best park in MLB for a fly ball pitcher like Ray. In fact Oracle Park has seen the fewest home runs in a season of any park in 5 of the last 6 years and in the other season it was the 2nd most difficult place in the league.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

What a fantastic pitching matchup tonight in Atlanta as the Phillies will throw out Aaron Nola and the Braves will have Max Fried. Nola has allowed 2 runs in his last 21 innings and his last 4 starts 3 of them have gone 'Under'. Fried has allowed one run in his last 17 innings and his last 5 starts 3 of them have gone 'Under' and we see a pitching gem tonight. I know the Braves have pushing games 'Over' the total as of late but with these to starters on the mound it wouldn't shock me to see the winner scoring 4 runs or less.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

As per our selection on Sevilla to win this game, this is a team that's been doubted all season long despite great success both domestically and across Europe. Sevilla are on an insane run of being unbeaten over their last 20 matches, posting 11 wins during that span including winning their last four games, and eight of their last 9. They play such a high-tempo game that we believe they'll be able to dictate the play to Inter and essentially run them off the pitch. Remember, Inter have played a ton of games over the last month while Sevilla is the fresher of the two teams. Inter Milan has had a solid season themselves, but they are going to be outclassed in this one and Sevilla will do what it does best - pressure the ball, cause turnovers, and score goals. Sevilla wins this game

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Thursday Basketball Bonanza 
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

NBA
LOSS - Take INDIANA PACERS +4.5 POINTS over Miami Heat (1 p.m. EST, Thursday Aug 20th)

I think this is a pretty evenly matches series. Looks like Oladipo is good to go for the Pacers today, so that really helps them. The Pacers didn't play well at all in Game 1, but we expect them to give a much better effort here today. These teams are very familiar with each other lately, and that will only help the Pacers today in the underdog role. We thought the bookies should have adjusted this line since the Pacers backs will be against the wall with a loss here, and we would lean to Indiana at 2, which we think is the more appropriate line. We expect a close game and we think the Pacers have a great shot at the win.

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LOSS - Take OVER 228.5 POINTS between Los Angeles Lakers and Portland Trail Blazers (9 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 20th)

This was the worst and lowest-scoring game of the first wave of the first round. However, I think we will see a bit more action in this one. The Lakers shot 16% from 3-point range, going just 5-for-32 in their last game. That's not going to happen again. They shot 35% from the field and were a terrible 65% from the free throw line. Part of that is because their guards suck. Part of it is just missed opportunities. But almost none of it has to do with the Blazers defense. The Lakers should experience some positive regression here. Portland won despite hitting just 39% from the field. Dame Lillard and C.J. McCollum only went 17-for-41 so there is plenty of room for them to improve as well. The public is piling on the Blazers. But I think that LeBron is going to be much more assertive in this game and much more aggressive going to the basket. That should lead to more points and more open shots for his substandard supporting cast. The Lakers are against the ropes, though, and it is not as if they are incapable of blowing someone out. I have this one at 126-114 for Los Angeles.

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WNBA
LOSS - Take CONNECTICUT SUN +7 POINTS over Las Vegas Aces (10 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 20th)

We roll with the Sun here as they face Vegas and though they are still a sub .500 team we think the Connecticut Sun have a decent shot at winning outright. We were on the Sun when they faced Indiana as well and this team is coming around after a series of injuries and a slow start. Yes, Vegas comes off a loss and we understand that against Chicago, but this Connecticut team is extremely feisty and can frankly compete against anybody in our opinion. Remember Connecticut started the year 0-5 and now sit at 5-7 overall. Then, you have a coach like Curt Miller who gives a challenge to his players and tells his ladies that "we are going to go right at Vegas" which shows that this game is going to be an incredibly physical and competitive contest. The Sun still don't have their star on Jones and the Aces still don't have Liz Cambage, but look for this game to be more competitive than people are giving credit to here as we think the Sun fall short just but cover the 7 points.

I think this line looks pretty fishy, like the bookies are begging for Rockets money here. The Thunder got thrashed in Game 1, and yet the odds stayed the same for Game 2 when you would normally expect an adjustment. We like to be on the side of the bookies, and we think the Thunder are the clear play here today. They are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after a beatdown of double-digits, and we think they will bounce back well once again here and even this series up today. Houston is shorthanded without Westbrook and the Thunder have been a great bet all season as one of the best ATS teams in the NBA. Houston has been erratic this season; they can look great one game and lousy the next. They rely too much on certain players, and with Westbrook out, that hurts if a couple other guys go cold. The Thunder just seem like a steady team that plays strong team basketball and we think they will bounce back well once again today.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

We roll with the Under here as the first game went under and we are aware there was no Kristaps last game which was part of the reason why the Mavericks lost. However, with Kristaps they shot the lights out of the ball in a very high scoring game and then things calmed down in the second half. I think things will be calm from the get go in this game and the intensity will be very high for both these teams. The Mavericks are also incredibly irritated at what happend last game with Kristaps getting ejected and I suspect they will take it out more on the offensive end then defensive end. I do not see the Clippers giving up 69 points in the first half in this game and I do not see the Mavericks giving up 60+ points in the first half of this game either like the last game. Plus, the Clippers will have Harreell a bit more active in this game and I suspect his actie presence will help control Luka some what here as well and combine that with the fact this is a monumental public fade as well and we will take a shot here with the Under as the adjustments likely will be made given the last game and this game probably goes Under again.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Minnesota has the best home record in baseball and I think they will add to that with a win tonight. Rich Hill will be returning from the injured list to make his second start of the season and he has had success against the Brewers in the past. Hill will most likely be on a pitch count, but the Twins bullpen will be better equipped than the Brewers bullpen.These teams played 12 innings last night and the Twins used 3 relievers as compared to the 7 the Brewers needed to finish the game. Brett Anderson will be on the mound for Milwaukee and he has failed to make it through 5 innings in any of his three previous starts, all losses for the Brewers. The Twins didn't hit a home run in last nights contest and I think they will take a couple deep in this one. I like Minnesota here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Cleveland comes into tonight's game with a lot of confidence after sweeping the Tigers over the weekend and winning eight of their last eleven games. The Indians should like their chances to win facing the Pirates who have the worst record in all of baseball. Pittsburgh is off their usual schedule as they have played just two games in their last eight days because of positive Covid tests from the Cardinals and Reds. It won't help that Pittsburgh will have to face Carlos Carrasco for the Indians who has filthy stuff. J.T. Brubaker will be on the mound for the Pirates making just his second start as Pittsburgh has battled injuries. Cleveland is the better team and has been in a routine so I like their chances of picking up the win in this contest.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I know that there is no Russell Westbrook in this game. And I know that Houston has been a dead 'under' team in the bubble, going 'under' in six of their last seven games. But this is by far the lowest total they have faced and I think they are going to be fine. They can still score and no Westbrook just means more shots and opportunities for James Harden. Oklahoma City has been all kinds of erratic on both sides of the court. They have allowed 128 and 121 points. They have scored 116 and 121. But they've also had some duds. Regardless, I know what this team is capable of offensively and I don't think they are going to have any trouble getting to 110 on their own. Oklahoma City has been streaky. I also think that they've played abobe themselves for most of this year. But I think that Houston is really confident in who they are and how they play. I see both teams topping 110 points and I think that the winner of this one is going to have to get to 120. I'll roll with the Rockets taking us 'over'.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

These are two Top 10 defenses. We feel this will be a lower scoring series than some of the others we have seen. These players are fresh with some extra time off before tip off, and we think these teams will be tentative and take some time to figure each other out. This also looks like one of the more hotly contested series in the first round, and the defenses could really tighten up down the stretch if the game is close in the fourth quarter. We could see a scenario where almost every trip down the court is met with lock-down defense. The last two meetings both went under, with one team in both games scoring only 92 points. The playoffs are a different animal than the regular season, and defense is normally stronger. We could see that being the case here in this Game 1 matchup. We had this total handicapped a tad under 210, so we think there is great value here in the under!

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Last night was Game #3 in this series and the defending champs finally won a bubble game but needed overtime. The Canucks have won 5 out 6 in the bubble and lead this series 2-1 and I'm biting on the plus money with Vancouver. Yes the Blues played like champions last night but the troubles the Blues have had in the net I see the Canucks scoring first and holding on to a commanding 3-1 series lead. Vancouver has won 4 out against the Blues and the Canucks are 5-1 as an underdog.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

The Clippers, more than almost any team in the league, didn't care about the regular season. They had injuries, and they didn't get too much time with a full roster to do their thing on the court. They didn't care about wins and losses, but they wanted to be healthy and have chemistry by the time the postseason arrived. Well, now is that time. While they aren't 100% heathy, they will start the postseason with a very strong roster, and we think they will raise their game to another level here in the postseason. For our money, this is the best team in the Western Conference. And we expect to see the best version of this team show up in the playoffs. Dallas is putting together something special, bur they are still a year or two and a couple players away from being a true championship contender. We think they are in deep in this series. They have lost four straight meetings, and they failed to cover in any of those games. The Clippers have great chemistry and talent, and we think they will want to make a statement here in Game 1.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.